2018 Kentucky Derby News & Notes
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Sparrow Castle
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‘Gronk’ on Track for KY Derby
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/gr ... -ky-derby/Listed Burradon S. hero Gronkowski (Lonhro {Aus}) has punched his ticket for the May 5 GI Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, and will travel Stateside on Apr. 28, trainer Jeremy Noseda revealed. The Phoenix Thoroughbred runner has won his last four starts, and earned 50 points on the “European Road to the Kentucky Derby”. Successful in the Mar. 7 “Road to the Kentucky Derby” Conditions S., good for 20 Derby points, his margin of victory was 1 1/4 lengths in the Mar. 30 Burradon, worth another 30 points to the winner.
“I am delighted with him,” Noseda told Tattersalls. “He’s a lovely straight forward horse to deal with and everything is very much on schedule with our preparation. He leaves for America in two weeks, on Apr. 28, and by the time he leaves quarantine and starts training, it will be Tuesday morning. That’s the plan and I think it is the perfect timing for his arrival. It’s just getting him happy, fit and healthy, and then we have to find out if he goes on dirt or not. I’m pretty confident he’ll handle it well. They either do or they don’t, no matter how much you train them.”
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Kentucky Derby Media Poll: Led By Justify, Seven Contenders Get First-Place Votes
With final Kentucky Derby preps completed over the weekend, a clear picture of who will run in the May 5 race at Churchill Downs formed. As for who will win it, however, there's no consensus.
Seven contenders received No. 1 votes in Monday's edition of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll assembled by HorseRacingNation.com, with the rankings led by unbeaten Santa Anita Derby winner Justify for a second straight week.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... ace-votes/
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With final Kentucky Derby preps completed over the weekend, a clear picture of who will run in the May 5 race at Churchill Downs formed. As for who will win it, however, there's no consensus.
Seven contenders received No. 1 votes in Monday's edition of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll assembled by HorseRacingNation.com, with the rankings led by unbeaten Santa Anita Derby winner Justify for a second straight week.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... ace-votes/
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Post Position Draw winning history
From Leila Elliott's FB page
Curious about what are the best posts to draw in the Kentucky Derby? Let's take a look at some post position statistics!
#1 — 8 winners
Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
#2 — 7 winners
Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Pon der (1949) Assault (1946).
#3 — 5 winners
Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987) Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942).
#4 — 5 winners
Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941).
#5 — 10 winners
California Chrome (2014), Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931); Always Dreaming (2017).
#6 — 2 winners
Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957).
#7 — 6 winners
Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930).
#8 — 8 winners
Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934).
#9 — 4 winners
Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951).
#10 — 9 winners
Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935).
#11 — 2 winners
Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933).
#12 — 3 winners
Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
#13 — 5 winners
Nyquist (2016); Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932).
#14 — 2 winners
Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950).
#15 — 3 winners
Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)
#16 — 5 winners
Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995).
#17 — 0 winners
#18 — 2 winners
American Pharoah (2015); Gato Del Sol (1982).
#19 — 1 winner
I’ll Have Another (2012).
#20 — 1 winner
Big Brown (2008).
Interesting notes:
It is not just history that tells us that #5, #10, #1, and #8 are the best positions--it is the math and science behind the trips that each horse will likely receive from each gate. Each post places each horse at a certain advantage or disadvantage automatically. Upon breaking, every horse needs to be on or near the rail. Breaking in a gate such as #5 allows a horse a cleaner trip with no swinging out to get in a good stalking or leading position, while outside posts run more of a risk of bumping or getting a poor place amongst the pack.
The raw reasoning is that #5, #10, #1, and #8 are the bare minimum best places to break from. #5 is the only Kentucky Derby post position to have had a double-digit amount of winners exit from it in the past. (10) It is the prime place to be. Only twenty-four horses in total have won exiting a gate farther outside than post #10, and no horse has ever won from post position #17.
Some interesting information to help you with your picks following the post position draw on May 1st!
From Leila Elliott's FB page
Curious about what are the best posts to draw in the Kentucky Derby? Let's take a look at some post position statistics!
#1 — 8 winners
Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
#2 — 7 winners
Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Pon der (1949) Assault (1946).
#3 — 5 winners
Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987) Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942).
#4 — 5 winners
Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941).
#5 — 10 winners
California Chrome (2014), Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931); Always Dreaming (2017).
#6 — 2 winners
Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957).
#7 — 6 winners
Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930).
#8 — 8 winners
Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934).
#9 — 4 winners
Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951).
#10 — 9 winners
Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935).
#11 — 2 winners
Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933).
#12 — 3 winners
Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
#13 — 5 winners
Nyquist (2016); Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932).
#14 — 2 winners
Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950).
#15 — 3 winners
Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)
#16 — 5 winners
Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995).
#17 — 0 winners
#18 — 2 winners
American Pharoah (2015); Gato Del Sol (1982).
#19 — 1 winner
I’ll Have Another (2012).
#20 — 1 winner
Big Brown (2008).
Interesting notes:
It is not just history that tells us that #5, #10, #1, and #8 are the best positions--it is the math and science behind the trips that each horse will likely receive from each gate. Each post places each horse at a certain advantage or disadvantage automatically. Upon breaking, every horse needs to be on or near the rail. Breaking in a gate such as #5 allows a horse a cleaner trip with no swinging out to get in a good stalking or leading position, while outside posts run more of a risk of bumping or getting a poor place amongst the pack.
The raw reasoning is that #5, #10, #1, and #8 are the bare minimum best places to break from. #5 is the only Kentucky Derby post position to have had a double-digit amount of winners exit from it in the past. (10) It is the prime place to be. Only twenty-four horses in total have won exiting a gate farther outside than post #10, and no horse has ever won from post position #17.
Some interesting information to help you with your picks following the post position draw on May 1st!
For me to even consider a horse drawn on the rail, it would have to be a complete and utter standout that just looks to tower over everything else. The most recent horse I can think of like that was Big Brown—who could have broke from behind the gate pointing the other way. Chrome was pretty dominant over what was a relatively weak field so I may have broken my moratorium for him. I don’t see a standout this year. I do think Justify has the highest ceiling but I don’t think he’s there yet.
With regards to the prior success of drawing the rail, I think it's important to note the field size as well.
Just off the top of me head, the ones I can remember when the #1 won.....
1986..16 starters
1963...9 starters
1956..17 starters
1952..16 starters
1948...6 starters
1940...8 starters
1938..10 starters
1937..20 starters
Safe to say that had all the fields contained today's standard of 20 entries, it's a pretty good guess that #1 might not have enjoyed the success that it did.
Post #5 has similar notations, field sizes of 8, 10, 12, 14 are part of their winning history!
Just off the top of me head, the ones I can remember when the #1 won.....
1986..16 starters
1963...9 starters
1956..17 starters
1952..16 starters
1948...6 starters
1940...8 starters
1938..10 starters
1937..20 starters
Safe to say that had all the fields contained today's standard of 20 entries, it's a pretty good guess that #1 might not have enjoyed the success that it did.
Post #5 has similar notations, field sizes of 8, 10, 12, 14 are part of their winning history!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
For mid pack type horses the inside draw is a problem for me. They will be down inside of the crush heading into the first turn and likely to get boxed and bumped around. See Danza from 2014. It can be a real mess in there and there's not much the jock can do once they start trying to crowd in going into the first turn.
I played Arch Arch Arch in whatever year that was and he drew the rail. A closer is just going to drop back on the rail anyway so I don't see a huge problem. That horse broke his leg at the beginning of the race so it didn't work out but it wasn't the rail draw that caused the problem.
If your horse has good speed he can get position up front early then he won't even see 80 percent of the field going into the first turn. But if he's not a good gate horse, well then...
I guess if My Boy Jack draws the rail that's ok with me. But if Bolt d'Oro does then maybe I toss him. He is more of a mid pack type and has also had some problems breaking well from the gate. Also inexperienced runners like Justify or Magnum might not be well served drawing 1-4 post.
It also matters to me if a couple of the speed horses draw next to each other inside. They will probably be ridden out of the gate and then there's an increased chance you get that 45 opening half that everyone seems to always expect in the Derby but hasn't been happening of late.
The Derby draw matters of course. With the number of good contenders this year it may be even more important than usual.
I played Arch Arch Arch in whatever year that was and he drew the rail. A closer is just going to drop back on the rail anyway so I don't see a huge problem. That horse broke his leg at the beginning of the race so it didn't work out but it wasn't the rail draw that caused the problem.
If your horse has good speed he can get position up front early then he won't even see 80 percent of the field going into the first turn. But if he's not a good gate horse, well then...
I guess if My Boy Jack draws the rail that's ok with me. But if Bolt d'Oro does then maybe I toss him. He is more of a mid pack type and has also had some problems breaking well from the gate. Also inexperienced runners like Justify or Magnum might not be well served drawing 1-4 post.
It also matters to me if a couple of the speed horses draw next to each other inside. They will probably be ridden out of the gate and then there's an increased chance you get that 45 opening half that everyone seems to always expect in the Derby but hasn't been happening of late.
The Derby draw matters of course. With the number of good contenders this year it may be even more important than usual.
I agree with this. It just isn’t very often a true win contender is a deep closer. If you or anyone else likes My Boy Jack for the win, the rail wouldn’t scare me off. Now, for me, the two main knocks against him are I’m not sure he’s fast enough and that, because of the point system, Desormeaux had to change the way he wanted to prep his horse. If the draw looks like it could compromise some of the main contenders, My Boy Jack isn’t the worse stab in the world.Spahny wrote:For mid pack type horses the inside draw is a problem for me. They will be down inside of the crush heading into the first turn and likely to get boxed and bumped around. See Danza from 2014. It can be a real mess in there and there's not much the jock can do once they start trying to crowd in going into the first turn.
I played Arch Arch Arch in whatever year that was and he drew the rail. A closer is just going to drop back on the rail anyway so I don't see a huge problem. That horse broke his leg at the beginning of the race so it didn't work out but it wasn't the rail draw that caused the problem.
If your horse has good speed he can get position up front early then he won't even see 80 percent of the field going into the first turn. But if he's not a good gate horse, well then...
I guess if My Boy Jack draws the rail that's ok with me. But if Bolt d'Oro does then maybe I toss him. He is more of a mid pack type and has also had some problems breaking well from the gate. Also inexperienced runners like Justify or Magnum might not be well served drawing 1-4 post.
It also matters to me if a couple of the speed horses draw next to each other inside. They will probably be ridden out of the gate and then there's an increased chance you get that 45 opening half that everyone seems to always expect in the Derby but hasn't been happening of late.e
The Derby draw matters of course. With the number of good contenders this year it may be even more important than usual.
There were two horses I really liked over the years whose trips I think were really compromised by drawing the rail, Agitate in that 23 horse stampede in 1974 and Lookin at Lucky in 2010. It’s interesting to note however that the ‘74 winner, Cannonade, drew the two hole but Cordero was able to keep him out of trouble to a reasonable degree. I think it’s worth noting, as did Stark above, that there have been two winners from the rail in the last fifty-five runnings. Both horses were deep closers and one was in a nine horse field. The other, Ferdinand, was my Derby horse from the time I laid eyes on him as a two-year-old at Del Mar in 1985. Then I noticed he was in the Whittingham barn and figured he’d never even go. When Charlie took him I knew he had a big shot because he wasn’t in it for Brown and a Julep. Knowing Ferdinand was going to be coming from the clouds, the rail didn’t bother me and I’m pretty sure that’s the last time it didn’t. Having Shoe didn’t hurt either.
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Sparrow Castle
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Phoenix Thoroughbred @PhoenixThoroug1
Going to be an awesome time @ChurchillDowns with @RobGronkowski joining us for the @KentuckyDerby ride on our Gronkowski! @amerabdulaziz @JeremyNoseda https://www.wsj.com/articles/rob-gronko ... 1524078039 …
Rob Gronkowski Acquires Stake in Gronkowski (the Horse)
Going to be an awesome time @ChurchillDowns with @RobGronkowski joining us for the @KentuckyDerby ride on our Gronkowski! @amerabdulaziz @JeremyNoseda https://www.wsj.com/articles/rob-gronko ... 1524078039 …
Rob Gronkowski Acquires Stake in Gronkowski (the Horse)
Gronk, the NFL star, is buying a share in Gronk, the horse. And together they’re going to Churchill Downs.
New England Patriots star Rob Gronkowski will acquire a minority stake in Gronkowski, a 3-year-old colt named after him that is slated to run in the Kentucky Derby on May 5.
The deal is set to be announced on Thursday with Phoenix Thoroughbreds, a global horse racing investment fund with about 130 horses in its racing and breeding operations. Terms were not disclosed.
Phoenix purchased the son of Australian champion Lonhro for $404,492 at a 2-year-olds in training auction in England last year. They named him after the tight end because the colt is “big and strong” and trainer Jeremy Noseda’s family are big Patriots fans, according to Tom Ludt, vice president of equine operations for Phoenix Thoroughbreds.
Coincidentally, both Gronkowskis are the same height: 6-foot-5.
In a telephone interview, Gronkowski said he plans to meet his new horse in Louisville, Ky., a few days before the Run for the Roses.
“I’ve never dealt with horses,” he said. “Hopefully I can get a ride on the horse.”
When it was pointed out that a football player listed at 265 pounds might be too heavy for a horse that typically carries a 115-pound jockey, Gronkowski admitted he has a lot to learn.
“That’s what I want to know,” he said. “I’m not trying to ride it for a full speed ride. I just want to get the feel of what it’s like to be on top of one. Maybe I’ll go for a full speed ride once I get comfortable.”
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BaroqueAgain1
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Coincidentally, both Gronkowskis are the same height: 6-foot-5.
Gronkowski is 19.1 hands? Uhhh......
While IMHO it's a nice public relations thing for a famous football player to get involved in a racehorse, someone has got to educate the lunkhead about some basic horse stuff.
Maybe he could get legged up on Harley, who looks like he could carry a lineman. And move fast enough to "get the feel of what it’s like to be on top of one." And probably drop Gronk in a few strides.
Gronkowski is 19.1 hands? Uhhh......
While IMHO it's a nice public relations thing for a famous football player to get involved in a racehorse, someone has got to educate the lunkhead about some basic horse stuff.
Maybe he could get legged up on Harley, who looks like he could carry a lineman. And move fast enough to "get the feel of what it’s like to be on top of one." And probably drop Gronk in a few strides.
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BaroqueAgain1
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So, if you're making plans for a Kentucky Derby visit, make sure you get a Hepatitis A vaccination first? 
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... patitis-a/
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... patitis-a/
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Somnambulist
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I don't really mind this. 90% of people don't care about racing so it this helps with passing interest so be it.Treve wrote:I'm going to have to assume whoever gave that height was measuring from the top of the ears
Someone asked about insta-toss. Hofburg is the first I can think of and I feel comfortable saying that without seeing post position.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Sparrow Castle
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Speaking of...Harley don't take no shit.BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Coincidentally, both Gronkowskis are the same height: 6-foot-5.
Gronkowski is 19.1 hands? Uhhh......
While IMHO it's a nice public relations thing for a famous football player to get involved in a racehorse, someone has got to educate the lunkhead about some basic horse stuff.
Maybe he could get legged up on Harley, who looks like he could carry a lineman. And move fast enough to "get the feel of what it’s like to be on top of one." And probably drop Gronk in a few strides.
Frances J Karon @francesjkaron 5h5 hours ago
Yikes! @ABeschizza barely batted an eye when this tough two-year-old tried to mess with Harley.
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Sparrow Castle
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- Joined: Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:44 pm
Thought this was interesting...
Steve Haskin @SteveHaskin
Derby Dozen - April 17, 2018 - Presented by Shadwell Farm http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky ... -farm.aspx … via @BloodHorse
Replying to @racing_dudes @SteveHaskin
I actually do agree with everyword Steve say in this analysis in fact i might run(*) him in the derby if i don’t see some real professionalism in his training he is back to the track Friday i dont Run to run even its the KY derby @JustinZayat @ZayatStables
* not run in the derby . Not doing it to just see my name in the program. #not that vain
Steve Haskin @SteveHaskin
Derby Dozen - April 17, 2018 - Presented by Shadwell Farm http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky ... -farm.aspx … via @BloodHorse
Ahmed Zayat Verified account @jazz3162 33 minutes agoFor the first time I had to drop SOLOMINI from the Top 12, even though he still remains as tough and honest as any of them, and I have him ranked No. 13 at this time. I just can’t figure him out anymore. Forget the fact that he again didn’t change leads in the stretch. I just couldn’t comprehend what he was doing running eighth in a field devoid of early speed, where they crawled the first three-quarters in nearly 1:13 2/5. I was hoping to see him use his speed and grinding style to either set or pressure the pace, as he is so tough I feel he would be very difficult to get by in the stretch. I would love to have seen what he would have done having Quip’s trip. He broke on his wrong lead and found himself four wide going into the first turn. He did make a good five-wide move on the far turn and was right there at the head of the stretch, but by now had been fanned nearly seven-wide. He again ran greenly down the stretch, stuck on his left lead and briefly looking at the grandstand, and to his credit he did battle hard to the wire, between horses. That is his strength. I firmly believe he will like the mile and a quarter, but, despite his experience, he still needs to be more professional. It isn’t finishing third that forced me to drop him; it was the manner in which he did it. We know the talent is there, as well as the heart. But the Kentucky Derby is all about being professional, and one of these days he hopefully will put everything together, and then we will see the real Solomini.
Replying to @racing_dudes @SteveHaskin
I actually do agree with everyword Steve say in this analysis in fact i might run(*) him in the derby if i don’t see some real professionalism in his training he is back to the track Friday i dont Run to run even its the KY derby @JustinZayat @ZayatStables
* not run in the derby . Not doing it to just see my name in the program. #not that vain
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BaroqueAgain1
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That's an amazing photo of Harley and that rearing horse, who I think is a filly. Trying to fight...or just freaking out?
Considering the things that they have to deal with, track ponies and their riders have a difficult job.
Considering the things that they have to deal with, track ponies and their riders have a difficult job.
Rob Gronkowski acquires stake in namesake Derby contender
Rob Gronkowski, the New England Patriots star tight end, has acquired “a substantial stake” in his namesake Thoroughbred, Gronkowski, who is scheduled to compete in the May 5 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.
http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/04/ ... contender/
Rob Gronkowski, the New England Patriots star tight end, has acquired “a substantial stake” in his namesake Thoroughbred, Gronkowski, who is scheduled to compete in the May 5 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.
http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/04/ ... contender/
