Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Tessablue » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:43 am

Taking stock of today... I always try to learn something new every time I bet, but the takeaway always seems to be "stick to turf." Oh well.

Good news is the dirt and turf both look very fair- wide posts did fine on the turf and neither seemed to favor speed. Will have to keep an eye out tomorrow, but it looks like turf horses who are out a bit wide in those big fields are able to get the jump on the others if they are good enough and the ride is timed correctly. Moving on...

Sprint
Drefong is my least favorite kind of horse to bet because he can't possibly be left out but he also might not be as superior to the others as his odds might indicate. He's clearly a brilliant sprinter and he's been working brilliantly, but it's hard to gauge whether hes actually that much faster than everyone else in here. I'll have to use him but I'd prefer to use Imperial Hint, who has unfortunately lost a lot of value as he's become a buzz horse over the past few weeks. I just love how this little guy is so speedy yet also so handy, we don't know the limit of his talent and there's a storied tradition of Sprint winners coming from less-illustrious tracks. I do worry that he'll break out and lose momentum from that outside post, but I'm looking forward to seeing him test Drefong in the stretch. Another horse I really like is Takaful, who I think is a little under-appreciated from a talent perspective. Takaful is really good and maybe I'm betting on him a year too early, but he has run two fantastic races in a row and I love the maturation he showed last time out, rating off the pace and defeating a very good older horse. I suppose there's a chance that these three melt each other, in which case Whitmore could be ready to roll right past them. It feels like I'm sort of forgetting Roy H here but for reasons I can't define, he just doesn't interest me at all.

Drefong/ Imperial Hint/ Takaful
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Matt Converse » Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:38 pm

I have been out of the loop with my third book release just before Halloween (Leather Head, if you like horror.) But I made some picks and am betting the last 6 races.

DM7
$2 pic6 9 w 2 w 5,8,9,12 w 11w 3 w 1,5 ($16)
$2 tri 2,5,14 w 9 w 1,6,7 ($18)

DM8
$2 super 2,10 w 6,7 w 2,9,10 w 6,7 ($16)
$1 super 9,10 w 2 w 7,9,10 w 7,8,9,10 ($8)
$2 tri 6 w 2 w 7,8,9 ($6)

DM9
$2 tri box 5-8-9-12 ($48)
$1 super 10 w 5,8,9,12 w 5,8,9,12 w 5,8,9,12 ($24)
$1 super 9,11 w 8,10 w 2,5 w 8,9,10,11 ($16)

DM 10
$10 super 11 w 3 w 5,6 w 5,6 ($40)
$2 tri 1,3 w 11 w 5,12 ($8)

DM11
$1 super 1,4 w 3 w 1,4,13 w 1,4,8,13 ($8)
$10 tri 3 w 1,4 w 8,13 ($40)
$2 tri 4 w 12 w 3,8 ($4)

DM12
$5 super 1,5 w 1,5 w 1,4 w 8,13 ($40)
$2 tri 8 w 1,5 w 6,9 (8)
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Somnambulist » Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:59 pm

I have $11 to bet on this. Gotta make it count.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Horsebagger » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:08 pm

Quality Road........like it. He's going to have a nice future as a stallion.
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Somnambulist » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:09 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Quality Road........like it. He's going to have a nice future as a stallion.


He really was so talented as a race horse. And I always thought he was gorgeous. Seeing this so far has been fun.
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby stark » Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:09 pm

compliments of John Cherwa, LA Times

DRF had 15 people making picks on all of Friday and Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races. And given the bombs that populated some of Saturday’s BC races, it’s amazing they had any Ws. They didn’t ask me to do this, but I did it anyway.

Win: Jay Privman, six winners in 13 races. Bet $26 ($2 bets) with Jay and win $86.20. (You listening TVG?)

Place: (deadheat) Marcus Hersh and Brian King (4 wins)

Also ran:
Mike Beer (3),
Byron King (3),
Matt Bernier (2),
Brad Free (2),
David Grening (2),
Mary Rampellini (2),
Mike Watchmaker (2),
Dan Illman (1),
Kenny Peck (1),
Mike Welsch (1),
Steve Anderson (0),
Andrew Beyer (0).

Do you know any public handicappers that had a good day?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Kennedy » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:49 am

stark wrote:compliments of John Cherwa, LA Times

DRF had 15 people making picks on all of Friday and Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races. And given the bombs that populated some of Saturday’s BC races, it’s amazing they had any Ws. They didn’t ask me to do this, but I did it anyway.

Win: Jay Privman, six winners in 13 races. Bet $26 ($2 bets) with Jay and win $86.20. (You listening TVG?)

Place: (deadheat) Marcus Hersh and Brian King (4 wins)

Also ran:
Mike Beer (3),
Byron King (3),
Matt Bernier (2),
Brad Free (2),
David Grening (2),
Mary Rampellini (2),
Mike Watchmaker (2),
Dan Illman (1),
Kenny Peck (1),
Mike Welsch (1),
Steve Anderson (0),
Andrew Beyer (0).

Do you know any public handicappers that had a good day?


It was pretty pathetic for me as well. I keep my own score on this file and this Breeders' Cup was my third worst of all time.

I actually blanked in 2005 and in 2012 I went 1 for 15.

So 1 for 13 isn't my worst ever but I've got 22 years of single selections in my own personal records and this was pretty disappointing. For me it was disappointing to have missed so badly, not so much disappointing to watch although there was some of that. You never like to see a horse like Lady Eli just completely fail to fire.

I hope to have time for a proper post mortem to go over what was missed on my part.
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Tessablue » Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:05 pm

I wouldn't beat yourself up too much, Kennedy- Jay Privman excepted, it was a pretty hellish year to handicap. Personally I'm trapped in this limbo where I feel okay about some of my handicapping, but I'm really unhappy with the way I bet- which is nothing new, but on BC day I think you really need to stick with what you're comfortable doing. I really shouldn't be structuring multi-race bets when I spend the entire rest of the year betting vertically, and I definitely got overconfident after hitting the Juvy Fillies Turf (always kinda dangerous to hit the first race)... although that Ami's Mesa beat may have shattered it for good.

But my goal every year is to get a little better and learn something from it- so many thanks to all of you who contributed such thoughtful analysis!
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby katmandu » Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:37 pm

http://www.drf.com/news/breeders’-cup-2017-insights-wizard

You'll have to copy/paste (or go to site!) because for some reason, the last part of link isn't "live".
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Re: Breeders Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

Postby Tessablue » Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:05 pm

katmandu wrote:http://www.drf.com/news/breeders’-cup-2017-insights-wizard

You'll have to copy/paste (or go to site!) because for some reason, the last part of link isn't "live".

Good stuff, thanks for sharing. I totally agree with his point about the commentary- they seemed totally mystified as to why only certain speed horses were holding, and it was just excruciating to listen to. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Banks and Eddie O managed to talk about it in their brief appearances. I try not to be too hard on announcers because it's not an easy job, but it sure seemed like they should have known better by the end of the day.
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