BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby stark » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:41 am

1 Arrogate (KY) 4/C L M E Smith 126 B Baffert 2/1
2 War Decree (KY) 3/C L1 S Heffernan 122 A P O'Brien 30/1
3 Win the Space (KY) 5/H L J Talamo 126 G Papaprodromou 30/1
4 War Story (KY) 5/G L J L Ortiz 126 J Navarro 30/1
5 Gun Runner (KY) 4/C L F Geroux 126 S M Asmussen 9/5
6 Mubtaahij (IRE) 5/H L D Van Dyke 126 B Baffert 12/1
7 Churchill (IRE) 3/C L1 R L Moore 122 A P O'Brien 15/1
8 West Coast (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 122 B Baffert 6/1
9 Gunnevera (KY) 3/C L E J Zayas 122 A Sano 30/1
10 Pavel (KY) 3/C L M Gutierrez 122 D F O'Neill 20/1
11 Collected (KY) 4/C L M Garcia 126 B Baffert 6/1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby stark » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:12 pm

1 Arrogate Bob Baffert The question is whether he can produce his "A" race at Del Mar. If he can, he'll win, and win decisively 2-1
2 War Decree Aidan O'Brien Not as accomplished as stablemate Churchill, but it's intriguing he recently won a synthetic prep for this 30-1
3 Win the Space George Papaprodromou Was an improved third in the Awesome Again; likes minor shares, was eased at 74-1 in last year's Classic 30-1
4 War Story Jorge Navarro He actually has some ability, but has proven time and again that he is terribly overmatched at this level 50-1
5 Gun Runner Steve Asmussen In raging form since his 2nd to Arrogate in Dubai, but note he is 0 for 3 in his career going 10 furlongs 8-5
6 Mubtaahij Bob Baffert Won the Awesome Again off a long layoff in his first start for barn and with blinkers; still must improve 20-1
7 Churchill Aidan O'Brien Signaled a return to top form very recently at Ascot; dirt is a huge question, as is this 10 furlong distance 12-1
8 West Coast Bob Baffert This year's best 3-year-old deserves a shot at this. Nevertheless, he faces a much tougher group of elders 8-1
9 Gunnevera Antonio Sano Surprised when second to West Coast in the Travers, but was soundly beaten, and is overmatched here 30-1
10 Pavel Doug O'Neill This 3-year-old is long on talent, and very short on experience. Expect he'll be a major force next year 20-1
11 Collected Bob Baffert Upset Arrogate in Del Mar's Pacific Classic going 10 furlongs and is 8 for 11 in his career; he's legitimate 6-1
- Odds and comments by Mike Watchmaker @ DRF
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
 
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby Izvestia » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:16 am

Gun Runner
Arrogate
West Coast
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby Life At Zen » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:18 am

Gun Runner
Arrogate
Gunnevera
A R R O G A T E
Paradise Woods, Lady Eli, Songbird, Ziconic
Gormley, Royal Mo, Shaman Ghost, Constellation

Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby Ballerina » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:23 am

Gun Runner
West Coast
Gunnevera
Arrogate
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby stark » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:47 pm

Stupid bet costing $48.
$1 Trifecta and Superfecta box of the 4 Baffert horses.
Gonna make it first thing in the morning so I don't forget or lose all my money before the last race.

Just because.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
 
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby Apollo » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:15 am

I'm picking Arrogate. Throughout my sports betting career I've ignored current form in favor of ability level. It wasn't exactly a difficult decision. From the first day I arrived in Las Vegas in 1984 I noticed that everybody was obsessed with current form -- "That team is playing good!" -- yet virtually everyone was losing. Okay, so the one thing I'm not going to do is prioritize current form.

It was a fantastic decision but I concede it attaches better to sports than horse racing. Still, I don't like to rely on subjective decisions when a system/angle is so comparatively simple and stress free. If Arrogate loses I won't exactly second guess myself. I'll apply ability over current form the next time. Volume and an edge.

If Arrogate loses I would expect it would be to West Coast. He is young and his ability level is not fully a known quantity.
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby stark » Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:09 am

Anxiously awaiting news if Pavel has a shot according to the sheets?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
 
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby Curtis » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:41 am

I think Arrogate will win for fun.

Arrogate
West Coast
Collected
Gun Runner
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Re: BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

Postby tcw » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:47 pm

Curtis wrote:I think Arrogate will win for fun.

Arrogate
West Coast
Collected
Gun Runner


Agreed. "If" Arrogate runs his "A" race, he wins. It's really that simple. If not, I wouldn't count out another B2 entry, Collected. We already know he likes the surface when he won the Pacific Classic at this same distance of 10F in a pretty decent time of 2:00 and 3.

On a side note, it should be evident to see how Arrogate is going to fare based on how he goes the first 4F out of the 1-hole.

Really looking forward to it... should be a good one.
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