BC JUVENILE Dirt 1-1/16th Saturday R10

Izvestia
Posts: 3813
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:08 am

Bolt D'Oro
Free Drop Billy
Good Magic
tcw
Posts: 1086
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:18 am

Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:05 pm

Bolt really looks like a man among boys in here. Not sure how big/how many hands he actually is, but I remember thinking how much more physically mature he looked than all those around him while traversing down the backstretch in a previous race. I also like how versatile he's shown to be early in his career, having won from being up on the pace and also while sitting off of it. And pedigree-wise, his is second to none. Otherwise, the Breeders Futurity and Champagne winners appear to be the most likely to upset based on speed figs.
Apollo
Posts: 293
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:14 pm

This is the race I'm most interested in. Triple Crown opportunity is revealed now, not in May or June
RuffiantoRags
Posts: 774
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2013 6:09 pm

Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:08 pm

Totally missed this race on the Breeders Cup site due to buffering. Ticked off!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111
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bare it all
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:21 pm

Sat Nov 04, 2017 8:37 pm

So, Good Magic did have a chance haha.
tcw
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:18 am

Sat Nov 04, 2017 8:51 pm

Bolt was way wide on both turns and still closed to finish just behind the place horse. Given the way he ran and his pedigree, I would still put him up at the top of the list going into next year's TC events. The winner also looks good going forward and has the pedigree to stretch out.
Izvestia
Posts: 3813
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:27 am

A better position and he had a better chance to win, he looked a little spent after his journey wide. I'd take him next time!!!
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Diver52
Posts: 1609
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:44 pm
Location: Redlands, CA

Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:26 am

Given the expectations for Bolt d'Oro (especially from Mick Ruis' comments) this was a major disappointment. Yes, he didn't have a perfect trip and he did close ground, but I'd start looking elsewhere for the next superstar.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
Spahny
Posts: 968
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:02 pm

Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:29 pm

Bolt d'Oro is a very good young colt. But he will never win the Kentucky Derby with Nakatani on. American Pharoah wouldn't have.
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Ballerina
Posts: 3048
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:22 pm
Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:35 pm

Spahny wrote:Bolt d'Oro is a very good young colt. But he will never win the Kentucky Derby with Nakatani on. American Pharoah wouldn't have.
I agree. I hope they change pilots on him.
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:07 pm

I'm not sure what Nakatani was trying to do there- his horse is tractable enough take back or speed up if necessary, but he just sort of sat there widest of all the entire way around. I give Bolt d'Oro credit for still trying in the stretch, normally I'd say he should have overcome it on that track but 78 feet is just a ridiculous amount of ground to give up in a G1.
tcw
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:18 am

Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:47 pm

Tessablue wrote:I'm not sure what Nakatani was trying to do there- his horse is tractable enough take back or speed up if necessary, but he just sort of sat there widest of all the entire way around. I give Bolt d'Oro credit for still trying in the stretch, normally I'd say he should have overcome it on that track but 78 feet is just a ridiculous amount of ground to give up in a G1.
Is 78 feet (or 26 yeards) what Trakus reported? In any case, that's a whole bunch for a young horse going 8.5F to overcome. Back in '08 they figured if they just kept Big Brown out of trouble on KD day (hence the 20-hole), no matter how wide he had to go, he was still going to win. However, this one may have even been a challenge for BB to overcome.
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:23 pm

tcw wrote:
Tessablue wrote:I'm not sure what Nakatani was trying to do there- his horse is tractable enough take back or speed up if necessary, but he just sort of sat there widest of all the entire way around. I give Bolt d'Oro credit for still trying in the stretch, normally I'd say he should have overcome it on that track but 78 feet is just a ridiculous amount of ground to give up in a G1.
Is 78 feet (or 26 yeards) what Trakus reported? In any case, that's a whole bunch for a young horse going 8.5F to overcome. Back in '08 they figured if they just kept Big Brown out of trouble on KD day (hence the 20-hole), no matter how wide he had to go, he was still going to win. However, this one may have even been a challenge for BB to overcome.
Yep, that's from Trakus. 78 feet more than Good Magic, 99 feet more than Free Drop Billy who saved the most ground (probably not for the best, though).
Spahny
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Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:26 pm

I think the ground loss stat can be over rated and a toy for stat geeks. But when you are wide all the way around the 1st turn your horse is both running harder and going farther. If you use him that way early and get hung out wide but somehow manage to get a good stalking position close up maybe you can justify it. If you lose you can defend it by calling it bad luck and the result of a bad draw. But when you do all of that and still end up toward the back anyway, as did Nakatani in this case, you worked harder, gave up ground and lost position. You are a Mario Gutierrez bobblehead trophy award winner.
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