BC JUVENILE Dirt 1-1/16th Saturday R10

Re: BC JUVENILE Dirt 1-1/16th Saturday R10

Postby Tessablue » Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:07 pm

I'm not sure what Nakatani was trying to do there- his horse is tractable enough take back or speed up if necessary, but he just sort of sat there widest of all the entire way around. I give Bolt d'Oro credit for still trying in the stretch, normally I'd say he should have overcome it on that track but 78 feet is just a ridiculous amount of ground to give up in a G1.
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Re: BC JUVENILE Dirt 1-1/16th Saturday R10

Postby tcw » Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:47 pm

Tessablue wrote:I'm not sure what Nakatani was trying to do there- his horse is tractable enough take back or speed up if necessary, but he just sort of sat there widest of all the entire way around. I give Bolt d'Oro credit for still trying in the stretch, normally I'd say he should have overcome it on that track but 78 feet is just a ridiculous amount of ground to give up in a G1.


Is 78 feet (or 26 yeards) what Trakus reported? In any case, that's a whole bunch for a young horse going 8.5F to overcome. Back in '08 they figured if they just kept Big Brown out of trouble on KD day (hence the 20-hole), no matter how wide he had to go, he was still going to win. However, this one may have even been a challenge for BB to overcome.
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Re: BC JUVENILE Dirt 1-1/16th Saturday R10

Postby Tessablue » Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:23 pm

tcw wrote:
Tessablue wrote:I'm not sure what Nakatani was trying to do there- his horse is tractable enough take back or speed up if necessary, but he just sort of sat there widest of all the entire way around. I give Bolt d'Oro credit for still trying in the stretch, normally I'd say he should have overcome it on that track but 78 feet is just a ridiculous amount of ground to give up in a G1.


Is 78 feet (or 26 yeards) what Trakus reported? In any case, that's a whole bunch for a young horse going 8.5F to overcome. Back in '08 they figured if they just kept Big Brown out of trouble on KD day (hence the 20-hole), no matter how wide he had to go, he was still going to win. However, this one may have even been a challenge for BB to overcome.

Yep, that's from Trakus. 78 feet more than Good Magic, 99 feet more than Free Drop Billy who saved the most ground (probably not for the best, though).
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Re: BC JUVENILE Dirt 1-1/16th Saturday R10

Postby Spahny » Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:26 pm

I think the ground loss stat can be over rated and a toy for stat geeks. But when you are wide all the way around the 1st turn your horse is both running harder and going farther. If you use him that way early and get hung out wide but somehow manage to get a good stalking position close up maybe you can justify it. If you lose you can defend it by calling it bad luck and the result of a bad draw. But when you do all of that and still end up toward the back anyway, as did Nakatani in this case, you worked harder, gave up ground and lost position. You are a Mario Gutierrez bobblehead trophy award winner.
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