BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby stark » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:55 am

1 Iron Fist (KY) 5/R L R Santana, Jr. 126 S M Asmussen 12/1
2 Giant Expectations (NY) 4/C L G L Stevens 126 P Eurton 12/1
3 Sharp Azteca (KY) 4/C L P Lopez 126 J Navarro 9/2
4 Gato Del Oro (KY) 3/C L J L Ortiz 123 R Baltas 30/1
5 Awesome Slew (FL) 4/C L J R Velazquez 126 M E Casse 12/1
6 Mor Spirit (PA) 4/R L M E Smith 126 B Baffert 3/1
7 Cupid (KY) 4/C L R Bejarano 126 B Baffert 8/1
8 Accelerate (KY) 4/C L V Espinoza 126 J W Sadler 7/2
9 Battle of Midway (KY) 3/C L F Prat 123 J Hollendorfer 10/1
10 Practical Joke (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 123 C C Brown 6/1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby stark » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:44 pm

1 Iron Fist Steve Asmussen Veteran 5yo sired by Tapit enjoying best season of his career, pace-presser has longshot look from slightly off pace 12-1
2 Giant Expectations Pete Eurton Earned spot Dirt Mile via WAYI victory Del Mar sprint, best race was around one turn, his two-turn form is modest 20-1
3 Sharp Azteca Jorge Navarro Potential pacesetter, Del Mar main track kind to early-pace types at one mile during summer meet, threat up front 4-1
4 Gato Del Oro Richard Baltas Tall order for lightly raced colt, no match twice for Battle of Midway, upside for 'Gato' is he has run well at Del Mar 30-1
5 Awesome Slew Mark Casse Late-runner in solid form, yet although won G3 route last season at age 3 perhaps more effective one-turn closer 8-1
6 Mor Spirit Bob Baffert Smashing winner Met Mile arguably "best + fastest" in field, current form uncertain, unraced in nearly five months 3-1
7 Cupid Bob Baffert Returned to earth following smashing May comeback, both recent starts ordinary, has won over Del Mar racetrack 10-1
8 Accelerate John Sadler Multiple stakes winner at Del Mar, versatile style, improved with blinkers and improved since third this race 2016 7-2
9 Battle of Midway Jerry Hollendorfer Kentucky Derby third enters off better-than-looked second roughly run G3 RP, lone start Del Mar was career best8-1
10 Practical Joke Chad Brown He is 5 for 5 one turn, 0 for 5 two turns, laughing to the bank, earned $1.6 million, four times in money at two turns 8-1
Odds and comments by Brad Free@DRF
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Diver52 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:55 pm

I find this one of the more puzzling races. Hard to eliminate anyone.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Horsebagger » Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:44 pm

Awesome Slew looks explosive on the Sheets to me. At 12-1, he'll be my key.

Will play with Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca, who spent the year marching his number lower to a new top in his last. If he goes to the front and drops a negative Rag on them, he'll win. Unless Mor Spirit comes back as well as he left us back in May and pairs up his number at Belmont.

Against Cupid.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Tessablue » Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:25 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Awesome Slew looks explosive on the Sheets to me. At 12-1, he'll be my key.

Will play with Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca, who spent the year marching his number lower to a new top in his last. If he goes to the front and drops a negative Rag on them, he'll win. Unless Mor Spirit comes back as well as he left us back in May and pairs up his number at Belmont.

Against Cupid.
Interesting, are you worried about Navarro at all? I don't feel great about the El Deal withdrawal and some clockers really disliked his last work. Granted, he's certainly quite talented and I don't really like anyone in here besides Accelerate.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Horsebagger » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:41 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:Awesome Slew looks explosive on the Sheets to me. At 12-1, he'll be my key.

Will play with Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca, who spent the year marching his number lower to a new top in his last. If he goes to the front and drops a negative Rag on them, he'll win. Unless Mor Spirit comes back as well as he left us back in May and pairs up his number at Belmont.

Against Cupid.
Interesting, are you worried about Navarro at all? I don't feel great about the El Deal withdrawal and some clockers really disliked his last work. Granted, he's certainly quite talented and I don't really like anyone in here besides Accelerate.


Once they line them up in the gate to race, I'm a slave to the Sheets. The number is the number, and it's just a struggle to interpret patterns and evaluate vs odds. I thought the work was fine (and fast). Question to answer is whether he can run his best number going 2 turns.

Accelerate can be a factor, but is fighting the Sadler issue as well.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Tessablue » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:53 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Once they line them up in the gate to race, I'm a slave to the Sheets. The number is the number, and it's just a struggle to interpret patterns and evaluate vs odds. I thought the work was fine (and fast). Question to answer is whether he can run his best number going 2 turns.

Accelerate can be a factor, but is fighting the Sadler issue as well.

Makes sense, thank you! I wasn't aware of Sadler's record in the BC, bit of an added concern for Accelerate and Stellar Wind. I do think there's a pretty good chance Accelerate gets passed late by someone unlikely, this race isn't always terribly formful and there's some decent sorts waiting to close in here. I don't have access to the Sheets but Awesome Slew looks pretty good from some other angles as well.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Izvestia » Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:33 am

I want to go with Practical Joke but his 0 for around two turns scares me.

Sharp Azteca
Awesome Slew
Mor Spirit
Last edited by Izvestia on Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Kennedy » Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm

@Tessa

I noticed a comment in the general picks thread about this race but I wanted to move the discussion about this race to this area.

The comment was there there was so much speed in the race. I'm wondering who you're seeing? Because I see Sharp Azteca as basically lone speed (with the mildly annoying presence of Gato del Oro who should quit halfway through)

Who are the many speed horses in here?

Mor Spirit is capable of being in front but I'd say he is a presser. He was really only in front when they went in :24 and 47. Sharp Azteca has only been that slow once.

Accelerate can be in front but he's not fast.

Battle of Midway might be able to join the front tier but he's not crazy.

Is it just those you're seeing?
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Re: BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

Postby Treve » Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:20 pm

I can't figure out a good angle to bet here, I think I may pass. I don't know why this race is making me so indecisive.
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