BC Dirt Mile Friday R7

stark
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Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:55 am

1 Iron Fist (KY) 5/R L R Santana, Jr. 126 S M Asmussen 12/1
2 Giant Expectations (NY) 4/C L G L Stevens 126 P Eurton 12/1
3 Sharp Azteca (KY) 4/C L P Lopez 126 J Navarro 9/2
4 Gato Del Oro (KY) 3/C L J L Ortiz 123 R Baltas 30/1
5 Awesome Slew (FL) 4/C L J R Velazquez 126 M E Casse 12/1
6 Mor Spirit (PA) 4/R L M E Smith 126 B Baffert 3/1
7 Cupid (KY) 4/C L R Bejarano 126 B Baffert 8/1
8 Accelerate (KY) 4/C L V Espinoza 126 J W Sadler 7/2
9 Battle of Midway (KY) 3/C L F Prat 123 J Hollendorfer 10/1
10 Practical Joke (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 123 C C Brown 6/1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:44 pm

1 Iron Fist Steve Asmussen Veteran 5yo sired by Tapit enjoying best season of his career, pace-presser has longshot look from slightly off pace 12-1
2 Giant Expectations Pete Eurton Earned spot Dirt Mile via WAYI victory Del Mar sprint, best race was around one turn, his two-turn form is modest 20-1
3 Sharp Azteca Jorge Navarro Potential pacesetter, Del Mar main track kind to early-pace types at one mile during summer meet, threat up front 4-1
4 Gato Del Oro Richard Baltas Tall order for lightly raced colt, no match twice for Battle of Midway, upside for 'Gato' is he has run well at Del Mar 30-1
5 Awesome Slew Mark Casse Late-runner in solid form, yet although won G3 route last season at age 3 perhaps more effective one-turn closer 8-1
6 Mor Spirit Bob Baffert Smashing winner Met Mile arguably "best + fastest" in field, current form uncertain, unraced in nearly five months 3-1
7 Cupid Bob Baffert Returned to earth following smashing May comeback, both recent starts ordinary, has won over Del Mar racetrack 10-1
8 Accelerate John Sadler Multiple stakes winner at Del Mar, versatile style, improved with blinkers and improved since third this race 2016 7-2
9 Battle of Midway Jerry Hollendorfer Kentucky Derby third enters off better-than-looked second roughly run G3 RP, lone start Del Mar was career best8-1
10 Practical Joke Chad Brown He is 5 for 5 one turn, 0 for 5 two turns, laughing to the bank, earned $1.6 million, four times in money at two turns 8-1
Odds and comments by Brad Free@DRF
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Diver52
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Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:55 pm

I find this one of the more puzzling races. Hard to eliminate anyone.
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Horsebagger
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Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:44 pm

Awesome Slew looks explosive on the Sheets to me. At 12-1, he'll be my key.

Will play with Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca, who spent the year marching his number lower to a new top in his last. If he goes to the front and drops a negative Rag on them, he'll win. Unless Mor Spirit comes back as well as he left us back in May and pairs up his number at Belmont.

Against Cupid.
Tessablue
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Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:25 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Awesome Slew looks explosive on the Sheets to me. At 12-1, he'll be my key.

Will play with Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca, who spent the year marching his number lower to a new top in his last. If he goes to the front and drops a negative Rag on them, he'll win. Unless Mor Spirit comes back as well as he left us back in May and pairs up his number at Belmont.

Against Cupid.
Interesting, are you worried about Navarro at all? I don't feel great about the El Deal withdrawal and some clockers really disliked his last work. Granted, he's certainly quite talented and I don't really like anyone in here besides Accelerate.
Horsebagger
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Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:41 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:Awesome Slew looks explosive on the Sheets to me. At 12-1, he'll be my key.

Will play with Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca, who spent the year marching his number lower to a new top in his last. If he goes to the front and drops a negative Rag on them, he'll win. Unless Mor Spirit comes back as well as he left us back in May and pairs up his number at Belmont.

Against Cupid.
Interesting, are you worried about Navarro at all? I don't feel great about the El Deal withdrawal and some clockers really disliked his last work. Granted, he's certainly quite talented and I don't really like anyone in here besides Accelerate.
Once they line them up in the gate to race, I'm a slave to the Sheets. The number is the number, and it's just a struggle to interpret patterns and evaluate vs odds. I thought the work was fine (and fast). Question to answer is whether he can run his best number going 2 turns.

Accelerate can be a factor, but is fighting the Sadler issue as well.
Tessablue
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Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:53 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Once they line them up in the gate to race, I'm a slave to the Sheets. The number is the number, and it's just a struggle to interpret patterns and evaluate vs odds. I thought the work was fine (and fast). Question to answer is whether he can run his best number going 2 turns.

Accelerate can be a factor, but is fighting the Sadler issue as well.
Makes sense, thank you! I wasn't aware of Sadler's record in the BC, bit of an added concern for Accelerate and Stellar Wind. I do think there's a pretty good chance Accelerate gets passed late by someone unlikely, this race isn't always terribly formful and there's some decent sorts waiting to close in here. I don't have access to the Sheets but Awesome Slew looks pretty good from some other angles as well.
Izvestia
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Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:33 am

I want to go with Practical Joke but his 0 for around two turns scares me.

Sharp Azteca
Awesome Slew
Mor Spirit
Last edited by Izvestia on Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Kennedy
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Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm

@Tessa

I noticed a comment in the general picks thread about this race but I wanted to move the discussion about this race to this area.

The comment was there there was so much speed in the race. I'm wondering who you're seeing? Because I see Sharp Azteca as basically lone speed (with the mildly annoying presence of Gato del Oro who should quit halfway through)

Who are the many speed horses in here?

Mor Spirit is capable of being in front but I'd say he is a presser. He was really only in front when they went in :24 and 47. Sharp Azteca has only been that slow once.

Accelerate can be in front but he's not fast.

Battle of Midway might be able to join the front tier but he's not crazy.

Is it just those you're seeing?
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Treve
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:20 pm

I can't figure out a good angle to bet here, I think I may pass. I don't know why this race is making me so indecisive.
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Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Tessablue
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:28 pm

Kennedy wrote:@Tessa

I noticed a comment in the general picks thread about this race but I wanted to move the discussion about this race to this area.

The comment was there there was so much speed in the race. I'm wondering who you're seeing? Because I see Sharp Azteca as basically lone speed (with the mildly annoying presence of Gato del Oro who should quit halfway through)

Who are the many speed horses in here?

Mor Spirit is capable of being in front but I'd say he is a presser. He was really only in front when they went in :24 and 47. Sharp Azteca has only been that slow once.

Accelerate can be in front but he's not fast.

Battle of Midway might be able to join the front tier but he's not crazy.

Is it just those you're seeing?
I see Sharp Azteca as the one who wants the lead the most and I don't anticipate a crazy meltdown, but I think he has a huge target on his back and they aren't going to let him get away. Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit dueled the whole way around in the Met Mile until Mor Spirit pulled away, and while there's a chance Mor Spirit never gets into the bridle you've still got company from Gato del Oro, Accelerate, and Battle of Midway (who isn't crazy, but I think he really needs to be prominent early to have any chance), and Cupid not far back. So I could be (and usually am) totally wrong, but I think at least the three favorites will be close together early.
Horsebagger
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:49 pm

Not impressed with how Mor Spirit looks in the saddling enclosure to this point. 2-1 favorite?
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starrydreamer
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:53 pm

Sharp Azteca sure is pretty. But ugh, his connections.
Tessablue
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:54 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Not impressed with how Mor Spirit looks in the saddling enclosure to this point. 2-1 favorite?
I wonder what his odds would be with a different trainer... not like Baffert has done well in this race though.

Sharp Azteca looks great and I kind of regret not betting him, but I'll happily take 4-1 on Accelerate and Iron Fist is a nice price for those who like him.
Last edited by Tessablue on Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
middleground
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:55 pm

Sharp Azteca looks pretty good, though.
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ThreeMustangs
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:58 pm

starrydreamer wrote:Sharp Azteca sure is pretty. But ugh, his connections.
^^^^This!
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:59 pm

I thought Mor Spirit looked fine in the post parade, sleek and filled out. A little sweat down his hind legs, but not anywhere near 'lathered up.'
ETA: Cupid looks really handsome, but I don't know if he has the speed to beat the faves.
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starrydreamer
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:01 pm

Accelerate looks good. But go go Gato del Oro! Odds be darned! :lol:
Tessablue
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:09 pm

Think you've got something with that Sadler angle, Horsebagger... Victor did him zero favors, but Accelerate had nothing. Mor Spirit was one of the least-surprising 2-1 busts I can recall.

I'm really surprised Battle of Midway ran that way, always thought he was pretty light on talent.
Last edited by Tessablue on Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Treve
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:10 pm

Thrilling finish for Battle of Midway and Sharp Azteca!
Also pleasantly surprised with Awesome Slew and Practical Joke since I was pulling for them both but didn't give them a huge chance.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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