BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby stark » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:52 am

1 Best Performance (KY) 2/F L1 J L Ortiz 122 C Clement 12/1
2 Happily (IRE) 2/F L1 R L Moore 122 A P O'Brien 9/2
3 Now You're Talking (IRE) 2/F L1 W Lordan 122 J O'Brien 30/1
4 Madeline (IRE) 2/F A Atzeni 122 R Varian 20/1
5 Ultima D (KY) 2/F L T Gaffalione 122 W A Ward 12/1
6 Orbolution (KY) 2/F L J R Velazquez 122 T A Pletcher 20/1
7 Capla Temptress (IRE) 2/F L1 J Rosario 122 W I Mott 6/1
8 Significant Form (KY) 2/F L I Ortiz, Jr. 122 C C Brown 8/1
9 Fatale Bere (FR) 2/F L K J Desormeaux 122 L Powell 15/1
10 September (IRE) 2/F L1 S Heffernan 122 A P O'Brien 6/1
11 Rushing Fall (KY) 2/F L J Castellano 122 C C Brown 7/2
12 Dixie Moon (ON) 2/F L E R Da Silva 122 C Day Phillips 20/1
13 Juliet Capulet (IRE) 2/F L Dettori 122 J H Gosden 12/1
14 Moon Dash (KY)2/F L M E Smith 122 M Stidham 15/1
Also Eligibles:
15 Retro (KY) 2/F L F Prat 122 R E Mandella 20/1
16 Goodthingstaketime (IRE) 2/F F Geroux 122 J A Stack 30/1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby stark » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:41 pm

1 Best Performance Christophe Clement Both turf starts better than runner-up finish indicates, rallied from behind slow pace both, longshot is super live 12-1
2 Happily Aidan O'Brien Among top 2-year-old fillies in Europe, successive G1 wins, she can stay mile distance and has won around a turn 5-1
3 Now You're Talking Joseph O'Brien Maiden from Ireland fourth both starts overseas vs. group rivals, would be racing beyond 6 furlongs for first time 30-1
4 Madeline Roger Varian Another European-based filly, Group 1-placed, though credentials suggest she is a notch below others shipping in 12-1
5 Ultima D Wesley Ward Filly she beat by 1.5 lengths in KD stakes returned to finished second by a length G3 Belmont; adds speed to lineup 10-1
6 Orbolution Todd Pletcher Met her match last time out at Belmont finishing third behind Significant Form and Best Performance in Grade 3 20-1
7 Capla Temptress Bill Mott Stylish victory North American debut G1 Woodbine was validated when two-three finsihers returned to win stakes 8-1
8 Significant Form Chad Brown Followed impressive debut win (dq'ed) with emphatic G3 victory at Belmont, gives trainer solid one-two punch 10-1
9 Fatale Bere Leonard Powell Flew home to upset $100k stakes Santa Anita in U.S. debut, underrated and improving filly has won 3 of 4 starts 15-1
10 September Aidan O'Brien Likely best Newmarket G1 last out, missed by nose with tough trip, among leading Europeans contenders this race 6-1
11 Rushing Fall Chad Brown Lightly raced star-in-the-making unleashed wicked rally to win G3 Keeneland, trainer won this race three times 4-1
12 Dixe Moon Catherine Day Phillips Followed runner-up finish behind Capla Temptress with workmanlike victory in restricted stakes Woodbine 20-1
13 Juliet Capulet John Gosden Front-runner/presser fully extended G2 Newmarket win 7f last, adds speed, challenged by distance, outside post 12-1
14 Moon Dash Michael Stidham Big step forward second start, missed by nose to Fatale Bere $100k stakes Santa Anita, class test from tough post 15-1

Not selected into the field and listed in order of preference by the Breeders' Cup Racing Directors/Secretaries Panel:
15 Retro Richard Mandella Third as favorite vs. modest rivals Santa Anita stakes, lightly raced and improving pattern, but in tough vs. these 30-1
16 Goodthingstaketime James Stack Maiden sprinter from Ireland placed summer Group 3 at five furlongs, would be shocker, entered MSW Thursday 30-1
Odds and comments by Brad Free
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby Izvestia » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:00 am

I like Significant Form, September and Capla Temptress.
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby Kennedy » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:30 pm

I had a pass at this race and wound up with Orbolution on top with September and Rushing Fall but I'm having a bit of a rethink today.

One of my main problems with the more highly regarded contenders is the ability of horses to properly close on this turf track.

Is Del Mar really that hard to close on? Am I wrong in being biased towards stalkers or speed types that can make quicker moves earlier?
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby Treve » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:00 pm

September is my initial pick but it gives me pause in noticing she's essentially "the other O'Brien". Yet for whatever reason I am not feeling inspired by Happily. I think I will use Orbolution in an Ex or Tri. Take a close look at Madeline, Roger Varian's horses are notoriously underrated and she has been looking very good in the mornings. I don't know what to make of Capla Temptress. I want to use her but I don't know how.
If Juliet Capulet didn't have such a terrible post she'd be real live.

Maybe I should just close my eyes and hit all. :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby Ballerina » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:38 pm

Rushing Fall
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:42 pm

Frankie Dettori rode a turf race at Del Mar on Wednesday and this was his impression:
He said: ”You do not want to be drawn high, anything above seven on the turf track you really have little chance.
“You cannot get yourself into a decent position unless you are up with the pace, because the winning the post is almost just over a furlong from the entrance to the straight.
“You cannot make up three lengths in that distance. I don't know how it will pan on the dirt.
“I would say this track is much tighter than Santa Anita.”

Read more: https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bree ... le-chance/

Hard to ignore the opinion of such an experienced rider, especially since he's riding Juliet Capulet, who drew #13, in this race. :shock:
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby Kennedy » Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:16 pm

Frankie's insight lines up with my own assumption from watching the odd turf race there over the years, but I never realyl got into Del Mar because it's run at the same time as Saratoga so I feel like my impression of the way the course plays is based on limited exposure.

Graham Motion's quote kind of shook my assumption when he said the following
"But I think the track itself would probably favor Masha, because Del Mar is a come-from-behind-type track. A lot of horses come from behind at five-eighths and win."
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... urf-sprint

Is he just mistaken?
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:22 pm

Del Mar just ran the 2nd, a 1 1/16-mile AOC on the grass, and it was won by Ritzy A. P....from the #11 gate. The #10 Lazzam was 2nd. So, the outside gates aren't necessarily the kiss of death, but it does look like you need enough speed out of the gate to get a decent position, maybe mid-pack. Trying to come from the back of the field probably still isn't optimal. :P ;)
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Re: BC Juvenile Fillies TURF 1M Friday R6

Postby Treve » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:58 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Del Mar just ran the 2nd, a 1 1/16-mile AOC on the grass, and it was won by Ritzy A. P....from the #11 gate. The #10 Lazzam was 2nd. So, the outside gates aren't necessarily the kiss of death, but it does look like you need enough speed out of the gate to get a decent position, maybe mid-pack. Trying to come from the back of the field probably still isn't optimal. :P ;)


Then again 1 1/16 miles isn't the same as a mile either. I'm gonna guess the longer the race the less impactful it'll be.

Edit: September sure is a beautiful a filly.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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