Breeders' Cup Favorites

Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby Tessablue » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:08 pm

Gun Runner is currently even while Arrogate is at ~5/2 in the offshore betting, Vegas has them at 6/5 and 3-1. I'm sure uncertainty towards Arrogate's starting status is a factor and early betting can be very misleading, but I really think Gun Runner will see a lot of money. There could definitely be an element of wishful thinking on my part, however! I'm not really planning on using GR in my Classic bets at present so the more money he takes, the better.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby thinair » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:35 pm

Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby Kennedy » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:15 am

Starine wrote:O'Brien says he may bring over Roly Poly for the F/M Turf. Do you think she would go favored if she starts?


I honestly can't see people backing anyone other than Lady Eli into favoritism in that race. She has been favored 12 out of 13 starts, she's really good and she's got a big emotional following as well.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby Kennedy » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:14 am

thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.


After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby thinair » Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:43 pm

Kennedy wrote:
thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.


After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.



That's true....but her maiden win was better than either of Significant Form's races.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby Ballerina » Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:45 pm

Classic - Gun Runner
Mile - Bal A Bali
Juvenile - Free Drop Billy :)
Juvenile Turf - Roaring Lion
Turf Mile - Beach Patrol
Dirt Mile - Cupid
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
Sprint - Roy H
Distaff - Abel Tasman
F&M Turf - Lady Eli
Pure Silver - Juvenile Fillies
Finley'sluckycharm - F&M Sprint
Rushing Fall - Filly Juvenile turf
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby Kennedy » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:04 pm

thinair wrote:
Kennedy wrote:
thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.


After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.



That's true....but her maiden win was better than either of Significant Form's races.


Agreed but whenever a 2yo has just one race under their belt I'm a bit more cautious towards them in terms of their potential in a race that is not their next start. I generally prefer a solid stakes win over a brilliant maiden win. Doesn't always work out but it is my natural bias.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby Curtis » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:08 pm

Ballerina wrote:Classic - Gun Runner
Mile - Bal A Bali
Juvenile - Free Drop Billy :)
Juvenile Turf - Roaring Lion
Turf Mile - Beach Patrol
Dirt Mile - Cupid
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
Sprint - Roy H
Distaff - Abel Tasman
F&M Turf - Lady Eli
Pure Silver - Juvenile Fillies
Finley'sluckycharm - F&M Sprint
Rushing Fall - Filly Juvenile turf

Do you really think these will go off favored? If so, I'll be betting with both hands.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby thinair » Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:24 pm

Personally, I think one of the worst things you can do as a bettor is hamper yourself with opinions weeks in advance of any race. You don't know what the field is finally going to look like, how it looks on paper, and what posts are drawn. You will deny yourself exactly the objectivity needed to handicap successfully.
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Re: Breeders' Cup Favorites

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:12 pm

This place would pretty dull if we all denied ourselves the pleasure of speculating about how the races may shape up....before the fields are officially drawn. :P :lol:
Whether our opinions are logical or outrageous, it's a fun conversation. And IMHO, early 'what if's' about how horses may do in races doesn't mean our handicappers won't have objectivity when the time comes to actually place a wager. ;)
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