Breeders' Cup Favorites

Tessablue
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Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:08 pm

Gun Runner is currently even while Arrogate is at ~5/2 in the offshore betting, Vegas has them at 6/5 and 3-1. I'm sure uncertainty towards Arrogate's starting status is a factor and early betting can be very misleading, but I really think Gun Runner will see a lot of money. There could definitely be an element of wishful thinking on my part, however! I'm not really planning on using GR in my Classic bets at present so the more money he takes, the better.
thinair
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Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:35 pm

Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:15 am

Starine wrote:O'Brien says he may bring over Roly Poly for the F/M Turf. Do you think she would go favored if she starts?
I honestly can't see people backing anyone other than Lady Eli into favoritism in that race. She has been favored 12 out of 13 starts, she's really good and she's got a big emotional following as well.
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:14 am

thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.
thinair
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:43 pm

Kennedy wrote:
thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.

That's true....but her maiden win was better than either of Significant Form's races.
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Ballerina
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:45 pm

Classic - Gun Runner
Mile - Bal A Bali
Juvenile - Free Drop Billy :)
Juvenile Turf - Roaring Lion
Turf Mile - Beach Patrol
Dirt Mile - Cupid
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
Sprint - Roy H
Distaff - Abel Tasman
F&M Turf - Lady Eli
Pure Silver - Juvenile Fillies
Finley'sluckycharm - F&M Sprint
Rushing Fall - Filly Juvenile turf
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:04 pm

thinair wrote:
Kennedy wrote:
thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.

That's true....but her maiden win was better than either of Significant Form's races.
Agreed but whenever a 2yo has just one race under their belt I'm a bit more cautious towards them in terms of their potential in a race that is not their next start. I generally prefer a solid stakes win over a brilliant maiden win. Doesn't always work out but it is my natural bias.
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Curtis
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:08 pm

Ballerina wrote:Classic - Gun Runner
Mile - Bal A Bali
Juvenile - Free Drop Billy :)
Juvenile Turf - Roaring Lion
Turf Mile - Beach Patrol
Dirt Mile - Cupid
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
Sprint - Roy H
Distaff - Abel Tasman
F&M Turf - Lady Eli
Pure Silver - Juvenile Fillies
Finley'sluckycharm - F&M Sprint
Rushing Fall - Filly Juvenile turf
Do you really think these will go off favored? If so, I'll be betting with both hands.
thinair
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:24 pm

Personally, I think one of the worst things you can do as a bettor is hamper yourself with opinions weeks in advance of any race. You don't know what the field is finally going to look like, how it looks on paper, and what posts are drawn. You will deny yourself exactly the objectivity needed to handicap successfully.
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:12 pm

This place would pretty dull if we all denied ourselves the pleasure of speculating about how the races may shape up....before the fields are officially drawn. :P :lol:
Whether our opinions are logical or outrageous, it's a fun conversation. And IMHO, early 'what if's' about how horses may do in races doesn't mean our handicappers won't have objectivity when the time comes to actually place a wager. ;)
thinair
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:21 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:This place would pretty dull if we all denied ourselves the pleasure of speculating about how the races may shape up....before the fields are officially drawn. :P :lol:
Whether our opinions are logical or outrageous, it's a fun conversation. And IMHO, early 'what if's' about how horses may do in races doesn't mean our handicappers won't have objectivity when the time comes to actually place a wager. ;)

This thread isn't even about making picks, so my post was sort of off anyway:-)
Somnambulist
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:29 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:This place would pretty dull if we all denied ourselves the pleasure of speculating about how the races may shape up....before the fields are officially drawn. :P :lol:
Whether our opinions are logical or outrageous, it's a fun conversation. And IMHO, early 'what if's' about how horses may do in races doesn't mean our handicappers won't have objectivity when the time comes to actually place a wager. ;)
This place has been dull.
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Tessablue
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:47 pm

I think most early speculation posts have an unspoken "contingent on the draw" caveat to them, although frankly it's tough for me to imagine a scenario that would scare me off of Bolt d'Oro. Also feels like the Classic draw will be much more important than usual this year... always hard to stay patient for these last few weeks.

And this place has been kinda sedate, probably because twitter and other sites are siphoning off the crazies. Anyone want to speculate as to how Del Mar might play? Will it be super biased towards the locals? Just realized I don't know how long it will be open for prior to the races...
Last edited by Tessablue on Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ballerina
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:56 pm

Curtis wrote:
Ballerina wrote:Classic - Gun Runner
Mile - Bal A Bali
Juvenile - Free Drop Billy :)
Juvenile Turf - Roaring Lion
Turf Mile - Beach Patrol
Dirt Mile - Cupid
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
Sprint - Roy H
Distaff - Abel Tasman
F&M Turf - Lady Eli
Pure Silver - Juvenile Fillies
Finley'sluckycharm - F&M Sprint
Rushing Fall - Filly Juvenile turf
Do you really think these will go off favored? If so, I'll be betting with both hands.
Some will, but these are my picks this day - mind could change in the next 3 weeks.
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:42 pm

thinair wrote: This thread isn't even about making picks, so my post was sort of off anyway:-)
No it wasn't really about making picks but it was on the topic of "pre-handicapping" or forecasting a race before all the facts are fully known.

Do you think that there is any value is forming a general opinion about a horse or division away from the context of a specific race? Such as "Practical Joke isn't a two turn horse" or "the 3yo male crop was weak". To me the question of which favorites should be opposed is at least an interesting one and maybe a valuable one.

I have found, if correct, some of these ideas can be guiding principles in a way that can help me form opinions even when numbers may cloud the issue on race day. Of course if your presumption is off your result is likely to be as well.

Do you think the ideal state for handicapping is to be nearly unfamiliar with the specific horses prior to actually looking at the race PP's? I personally feel the opposite but I do see that affection and perhaps a desire to stick to a past "opinion on record" can hurt your ability to make the right call today.

I am not a bettor so I really can't comment on how having such opinions would affect me but I do like to analyze and eventually select horses that I think will win. Because there is no money on the line the only downside is the realization that I'm not as good as I want to be at something I want to excel at which, for me, is pain enough.
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:51 pm

Tessablue wrote:I think most early speculation posts have an unspoken "contingent on the draw" caveat to them, although frankly it's tough for me to imagine a scenario that would scare me off of Bolt d'Oro. Also feels like the Classic draw will be much more important than usual this year... always hard to stay patient for these last few weeks.
Who is the scariest horse to have entered the Juvenile in recent times? American Pharoah likely would have had a good shot had he not been injured ;)

But as I look through the past favorites I'm struggling to come up with one since perhaps Officer that enters with such an expectation of a dominant victory. Maybe Union Rags, Uncle Mo, First Samurai, Lookin At Lucky and War Pass could be added to that group?

Is Bolt D'Oro so significantly better than most juveniles that we've seen in the last decade and a half at the pre-Breeders' Cup stage? Seems as if he is seen that way. I'm personally not against him at all but I do think that Free Drop Billy is pretty good as well.
Tessablue
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:26 pm

Kennedy wrote:
Tessablue wrote:I think most early speculation posts have an unspoken "contingent on the draw" caveat to them, although frankly it's tough for me to imagine a scenario that would scare me off of Bolt d'Oro. Also feels like the Classic draw will be much more important than usual this year... always hard to stay patient for these last few weeks.
Who is the scariest horse to have entered the Juvenile in recent times? American Pharoah likely would have had a good shot had he not been injured ;)

But as I look through the past favorites I'm struggling to come up with one since perhaps Officer that enters with such an expectation of a dominant victory. Maybe Union Rags, Uncle Mo, First Samurai, Lookin At Lucky and War Pass could be added to that group?

Is Bolt D'Oro so significantly better than most juveniles that we've seen in the last decade and a half at the pre-Breeders' Cup stage? Seems as if he is seen that way. I'm personally not against him at all but I do think that Free Drop Billy is pretty good as well.
Interesting question- first juveniles who came to mind were Uncle Mo and Vindication... but looking at the charts, Vindication wasn't even the favorite! So I suppose he was more of a buzz horse afterwards, whereas Uncle Mo went into the race with a ton of hype. Looks like Officer was the last favorite to go off at lower-than-even odds, while Union Rags, Mo, Shanghai Bobby, and Cuvee were all less than 2-1. It does feel like it's been a while since we had a genuine 2yo star in the race- Shanghai Bobby was heavily bet, but not terribly exciting.

Bolt d'Oro is tremendously versatile for a young horse, has experience at the track, and appears to be substantially faster than all of his competitors. There's always the risk of a bounce off what was a massive effort last out- but he could regress off that preliminary 113 or the adjusted 100 and till win. I'm pretty bad at predicting odds, but ~6/5 feels about right for him.

Your question about early evaluations of horses is really interesting too... still giving it some thought.
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Diver52
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Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:15 am

My wild guess is that Del Mar will play the way Baffert wants it to, insofar as that is possible given the track composition. ;) :)
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BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:30 am

The other 2yo colt by MdO is Montauk, who recently won a MSW at Belmont in impressive fashion.
Will it be a match-up between the West Coast (BdO) and East Coast (Mntk) sons of MdO? ;)
Somnambulist
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Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:06 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:The other 2yo colt by MdO is Montauk, who recently won a MSW at Belmont in impressive fashion.
Will it be a match-up between the West Coast (BdO) and East Coast (Mntk) sons of MdO? ;)
Can't wait to hear a Cali announcer butcher his name!

The real story of the year is how badly the Todd has been with favorites.
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