Breeders' Cup prep probables?

Kennedy
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Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:25 am

There are tons of races coming up that will be major preps for the Breeders Cup races but I feel like year more than ever I'm having a hard time getting a picture of which races are begin targeted by the big stars in each division.

Anyone have some insight? Mostly I'm just guessing

Woodbine Mile - World Approval
Turf Classic - Oscar Performance, Money Multiplier
Gallant Bloom - Paulassilverlining
Pilgrim
Vosburgh - El Deal
Beldame - Forever Unbridled
Frontrunner - Bolt d'Oro
Awesome Again - Arrogate?, Collected?
Rodeo Drive
Zenyatta - Stellar Wind
Chandelier
Alcibiades
Woodford - Green Mask
TCA
First Lady - Roca Rojo, Miss Temple City
Breeders Futurity
Shadwell Turf Mile
Frizette
Kelso - Sharp Azteca
Flower Bowl - Lady Eli
Belmont Turf Sprint - Disco Partner
Champagne
Jockey Club Gold Cup - Gun Runner? Shaman Ghost,
City of Hope - Midnight Storm
SA Sprint Championship - Drefong, Ransom the Moon
Tessablue
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Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:42 pm

I'm pretty sure Gun Runner is training up the BC. I think it's becoming more popular to do so, which is having a very unfortunate effect on many of these late preps.

Frankly I'm wondering when NYRA starts to rebel in earnest against the BC (was it Repole who floated the idea of running their own series of races to counter it?). Their fall Belmont stakes will likely only continue to diminish in importance while Belmont-based horses tend to run quite poorly at Santa Anita. The current setup is decidedly unfair to New York racing and I wonder what the breaking point is.
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:07 pm

The other day, the guys on TVG were talking about a Belmont stakes weekend that used to be seen as...or even called?...a Breeders' Cup prep day. And how it wasn't being used as that very much anymore as trainers have started to avoid running their horses in stakes that are "too close" to the BC card.
Maybe the issue could be addressed by moving those races a bit farther from BC weekend?
It's not a unique problem; the Arc and Champions Day at Ascot have the same sort of scheduling issues. Both European meets tend to jam up against the BC, which will be only two weeks (IIRC) after the Ascot meeting this year. And let's not forget the Melbourne Cup festival, which has drawn some of Europe's best stayers in the past.
Choosing which meet to target with your horses is sort of a global challenge. ;) :lol: :P
Kennedy
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Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:25 pm

Tessablue wrote:I'm pretty sure Gun Runner is training up the BC. I think it's becoming more popular to do so, which is having a very unfortunate effect on many of these late preps.
That was actually my sense of things hence the discussion topic. It has always felt like after a big summertime race you'd get some quote from the connections saying "onto BC prep xxx" and I feel like that's not really happening.

Obviously these races are still going to be run but if all the heavy hitters in each division are bypassing them who is actually running?

From one standpoint it actually makes the BC races more interesting because it means the race will feature Arrogate, Gun Runner AND the winners of the JCGC, Awesome Again. Whether the eventual JCGC winner actually has a chance to beat Gun Runner in the Classic or not it creates a greater illusion of competition.

I'm not really sure if I think this is all good or bad but it struck me as a year where the trend towards less prepping has taken a dramatic upturn.
Kennedy
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Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:27 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:The other day, the guys on TVG were talking about a Belmont stakes weekend that used to be seen as...or even called?...a Breeders' Cup prep day. And how it wasn't being used as that very much anymore as trainers have started to avoid running their horses in stakes that are "too close" to the BC card.
Maybe the issue could be addressed by moving those races a bit farther from BC weekend?
It's not a unique problem; the Arc and Champions Day at Ascot have the same sort of scheduling issues. Both European meets tend to jam up against the BC, which will be only two weeks (IIRC) after the Ascot meeting this year. And let's not forget the Melbourne Cup festival, which has drawn some of Europe's best stayers in the past.
Choosing which meet to target with your horses is sort of a global challenge. ;) :lol: :P
In the interim I think it creates an unbelievably good opportunity for some connections to scoop a pile of money and a resume with "G-1" on it.
Tessablue
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Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:39 pm

Kennedy wrote:
Tessablue wrote:I'm pretty sure Gun Runner is training up the BC. I think it's becoming more popular to do so, which is having a very unfortunate effect on many of these late preps.
That was actually my sense of things hence the discussion topic. It has always felt like after a big summertime race you'd get some quote from the connections saying "onto BC prep xxx" and I feel like that's not really happening.

Obviously these races are still going to be run but if all the heavy hitters in each division are bypassing them who is actually running?

From one standpoint it actually makes the BC races more interesting because it means the race will feature Arrogate, Gun Runner AND the winners of the JCGC, Awesome Again. Whether the eventual JCGC winner actually has a chance to beat Gun Runner in the Classic or not it creates a greater illusion of competition.

I'm not really sure if I think this is all good or bad but it struck me as a year where the trend towards less prepping has taken a dramatic upturn.
I think it's been a general trend over the past decade or so, but I wouldn't be surprised if Baffert sped up the process after what he did with AP and Arrogate in back-to-back Classics. I will continue to take issue with it if the BC continues to go to the same tracks or regions nearly every year- it cheapens the JCGC if connections see little point in prepping for California in NY and send their best horses elsewhere, and it potentially cheapens the big race itself if one group of preppers is intrinsically favored year in and year out.

I think it's the 2yo division that has suffered the most from this new practice, however. When was the last real 2yo superstar? I feel like I don't even know these horses come November, and I wonder how much impact these abbreviated early seasons will have down the line given the apparent positive impact of 2yo activity on a horse's long-term soundness.
stark
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Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:58 pm

http://www.santaanita.com/stable-notes/ ... cfh97J97IV

Saturday’s five Grade I “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge races will be drawn next Wednesday, Sept. 27, as will the races for Sunday, Oct. 1. Entries for the opening day card next Friday, Sept. 29, will be taken this Tuesday, Sept. 26.

Following are probable entrants for Saturday’s Grade I events:

Accelerate, Breaking Lucky, Cupid, Curlin Rules, Donworth, Dortmund, Midnight Storm and Win the Space (Awesome Again Stakes);

Faithfully, Midnight Toast, Motown Lady, Paradise Woods, Shenandoah Queen; Vale Dori (Zenyatta Stakes);

Alluring Star, Dancing Belle, Just a Smidge, Moonshine Memories, Piedi Bianchi, Spectator, Super Good, Terra’s Angel and True Royalty (Chandelier Stakes).

Also: Axelrod, Ayacara, Bolt d’Oro, City Plan, Solomini, Texas Wedge and Zatter (FrontRunner Stakes);

Amboseli, Avenge, Decked Out, Fourstar Crook, Frenzified, Goldy Espony, Goodyearforroses, Harmonize, Insta Erma, Madame Stripes, Majestic Heat, Rainha Da Bateria and Responsibleforlove (Rodeo Drive Stakes).
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:03 pm

Jeremy Balan‏Verified account @BH_JBalan
No Breeders' Cup for Gormley, John Shirreffs reports.

Jeremy Balan‏Verified account @BH_JBalan
Peter Eurton says Champagne Room is back at Santa Anita & doing well out of Remington Park Oaks. Lost a few pounds, but BC Distaff probable.

Jeremy Balan‏Verified account @BH_JBalan
Simon Callaghan says American Gal has been turned out & will miss Breeders' Cup. Main target next year will be Humana Distaff on Derby day.
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Curtis
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Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:36 pm

Gormley was being considered for the BC? Which race?
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Starine
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Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:54 pm

Curtis wrote:Gormley was being considered for the BC? Which race?
I hope it was the Marathon; can't see him being even remotely competitive in anything else.
Kennedy
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Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:28 am

For me it looks like the Joe Hirsch is the race of the weekend! They should be thrilled to get a race like that put together.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:22 pm

After that 'Holy Cow!' win in the Beldame against older, I'd put Elate near the top of possible entrants in the BC Distaff. She was blocked in the stretch, but found a seam and just left the rest of the field behind, by what looked like double digits, geared down. That MdO filly has really blossomed.
barbaro111
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Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:30 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:After that 'Holy Cow!' win in the Beldame against older, I'd put Elate near the top of possible entrants in the BC Distaff. She was blocked in the stretch, but found a seam and just left the rest of the field behind, by what looked like double digits, geared down. That MdO filly has really blossomed.

She is fearless----an awesome win for her
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:43 pm

The Left Coast G1 for fillies and mares, the Lady's Secret...I mean, the Zenyatta...was also won by a three-year-old filly. However, Paradise Wood's dominant win doesn't mean quite as much to me since she was facing only three other horses. :(
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Diver52
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Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:39 am

True dat, but she showed the kind of blitzkrieg runemofftheirfeet talent that she hadn't shown in her last two starts. Will make the BCD more interesting--could certainly set up for the Unbridled Whatever. (I can't remember if its U/F or F/U.)
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
stark
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Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:24 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:The Left Coast G1 for fillies and mares, the Lady's Secret...I mean, the Zenyatta...was also won by a three-year-old filly. However, Paradise Wood's dominant win doesn't mean quite as much to me since she was facing only three other horses. :(

https://twitter.com/Steve_Byk/status/914487569043398656
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:40 pm

Visually Elate was very impressive, but I hadn't even heard of the place and show horses and the BSF was pretty slow. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine that Paradise Woods gets a similar trip in the BC. Looks like the Distaff is going to be a tough race to figure.
Kennedy
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Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:45 am

Of the major preps we've seen so far how many horses looked like playable entrants for BC races?

For me the standouts have been Bolt d'Oro and World Approval. Both look like excellent candidates for their races and will be super tough.

Other interesting parties are Elate, Paradise Woods, Sharp Azteca, Moonshine Memories and Takaful.

Being perfectly honest I have no idea what to do with Beach Patrol
Somnambulist
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Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:36 am

Tessablue wrote:Visually Elate was very impressive, but I hadn't even heard of the place and show horses and the BSF was pretty slow. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine that Paradise Woods gets a similar trip in the BC. Looks like the Distaff is going to be a tough race to figure.
The track had to be drying out by the time of her race, though. Maybe that hindered it.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:10 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Visually Elate was very impressive, but I hadn't even heard of the place and show horses and the BSF was pretty slow. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine that Paradise Woods gets a similar trip in the BC. Looks like the Distaff is going to be a tough race to figure.
The track had to be drying out by the time of her race, though. Maybe that hindered it.
Totally possible. She did close genuinely quickly and it's possible that the pace precluded a better time or figure, I just see a lot of question marks and I'm always leery of Belmont-preppers in west-coast BCs... she certainly won't be the only one with unanswered questions going in, however.
Kennedy wrote:Of the major preps we've seen so far how many horses looked like playable entrants for BC races?

For me the standouts have been Bolt d'Oro and World Approval. Both look like excellent candidates for their races and will be super tough.

Other interesting parties are Elate, Paradise Woods, Sharp Azteca, Moonshine Memories and Takaful.

Being perfectly honest I have no idea what to do with Beach Patrol
I don't know what to do with him either, or the turf division in general. But I do know that I love Imperial Hint as a potential longshot for the Sprint, which may well turn out to be the race of the day. Drefong, Takaful, Imperial Hint, and El Deal are all crazy talented.
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