Whitney (G1)

Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby blamethewinner » Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:28 pm

Big Ten wrote:If Arrogate was in the Woodward, he wouldn't be a lock to win. Arrogate has regressed ever since he peaked in the Travers. Gun Runner has improved as a 4YO while Arrogate hasn't.

My money is on Accelerate to win the Pacific Classic and BC Classic. In the PC, Arrogate will probably still be 3-5 and say he soundly beats Accelerate by 1.5 lengths or even 5+ with a solid 115 BSF. I still like Accelerate's chances in the BCC knowing a bounce effect from Arrogate. Just a reassurance win for Baffert and Arrogate fans. Accelerate is 2-0 on Arrogate. He can finish 4-0 or even 3-1 on Arrogate like Sunday Silence did to Easy Goer.

I don't really like Gun Runner's chances once he ships here but he has speed to soften up Accelerate. I like Victor Espinoza's revenge for losing twice to Baffert's BCC threepeat and end Bob's possible 4peat run. Get Accelerate at 5-2 or 3-1 in the PC and say he loses it, then 6-1 in the BC. Arrogate and GR will get all the money on BCC day. It will be hyped as East vs West while Accelerate's San Diego will be looked upon as a fluke. But Accelerate is still a dangerous horse on BC day like after Blame lost the JCGC.

Arrogate went from ordinary to extraordinary to back to ordinary very quickly. He is still extremely vulnerable even if he bounces back and wins the Pacific Classic this month and Del Mar is not a track many horses love to run at.

That might be the worst opinion you've ever had, and the sample size is gigantic. Amazing!
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby stark » Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:31 pm

Big Ten wrote: Arrogate has regressed ever since he peaked in the Travers. .

Curious what you're using as a measuring stick?

Beyer gave him a 122 in the Travers, then he "regressed" to 120 in the BC Classic and further "regression" to 119 in the Pegasus and then whatever the number was in the visually impressive Dubai race.

Regressed my ass, they're just a bunch of speed ratings open to interpretation, a mere repeat of anything he's already done makes him very formidable.

With $17,000,000 cash in the bank, Baffert has nothing left to prove with this horse, the one and only reason to run in the BCC is because he's 100% and then the others are running for second imho.

I'd rather bet that he won't even run then he'd run and get beat as you suggest.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby Charlie » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:08 pm

I loved Gunner Runner last year and I am happy to see him improve as a 4 year old. He really shows what happens when a talented 3 year old is allowed to mature. Hope he keeps kicking butt.

I don't know if he is quite good enough to beat Arrogate at his A+ game, but he definitely has the talent beat a less than stellar Aroogate. If Arrogate's a star that finally came back to earth than he could be vulnerable the rest of the year.
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby peeptoad » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:45 am

I thought Gun Runner looked fantastic on Saturday. I have my doubts about him being able to produce that type of run successfully (although he got close in Dubai) going 10F though. He's good enough to do it, unless someone else in the race pops and runs huge, but he doesn't seem optimally suited to the classic distance. He reminds me a tiny bit of MDO in that way. MDO brought his A game every time, but was strongest at 9F. He seemed to get beaten repeatedly at 10F on the big stage.
On the flip side, Keen Ice seems to need every inch of 10F to produce his best run; he should be well placed assuming he makes the year end race and stay in or near his current form.
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby peeptoad » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:50 am

Spahny wrote:
stark wrote:Steve Asmussen said the Woodward here on 9/2 is a real possibility for Gun Runner. Would give him 9 weeks to the BC Classic.

A possible for Arrogate too... which would be good for NYRA. Doesn't everybody want that?

At least Baffert knows Arrogate likes Saratoga. Del Mar???

I seriously think it would in the best interest of the Arrogate camp to ship to the Spa for the Woodward. Plus, I am biased because I'd get to see him.
Objectively though, Gun Runner is Arrogate's biggest foe regarding year end honors, and if he can manage to beat Gun Runner at the Spa (a track they both have run well at), he could still potentially lose the Classic (to GR or another horse) and walk away with the award.

Plus it would give fans a chance to see the top 2 square off in the rivalry again and, imo, rivalries are undervalued in horse racing today.
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby Northport » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:21 pm

Is Shaman Ghost being prepped with the Woodward in mind?
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby Treve » Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:21 pm

Northport wrote:Is Shaman Ghost being prepped with the Woodward in mind?

I think so, I think they were looking at possibly defending his title there?
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...

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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby Rick1323 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 12:25 pm

I just got back from a great week, except for losing my ass. In any case Gun Runner gave me goosebumps, hasn't happened all that often.....can't wait for Travers week.....
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby Little Watermelon » Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:58 pm

I must be the only one underwhelmed by the competition he faced in this race.
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Re: Whitney (G1)

Postby Diver52 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:08 pm

No, you aren't. Tu Brutus did nothing and Keen Ice returned to being. . .Keen Ice. Being able to run away from Breaking Lucky isn't an exclusive club.
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