Belmont Stakes

Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby Somnambulist » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:00 am

I feel like pace has to factor in a little here.
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby blamethewinner » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:02 am

Cherry picking 4 famous races where outside horses won stretch battles means that they win the majority of the time? That's a hasty and erroneous generalization.
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby Horsebagger » Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:14 am

Somnambulist wrote:I feel like pace has to factor in a little here.


Agree, and more than a little. Pace and race dynamics contribute together.

Speed horses leave the gate, expending the most early energy relative to the balance of the field;
Speed horses gravitate to the inside paths since that's the shortest way around, and they have the option to choose which paths;
Therefore, the horses expending the most early energy are on the inside early;
Closers reserve early energy, but are thus a potential victim of which path they have the option to choose;
as Early speed weakens after expending excess energy, the tend to naturally block inside paths;
closers with late pace energy generally circle outside the tiring horses on the inside because it's naturally the most clear path and once you enter the stretch, the ground loss is brief and relatively negligible.

Open to critique or critical debate with those that disagree.
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby Curtis » Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:23 pm

blamethewinner wrote:Cherry picking 4 famous races where outside horses won stretch battles means that they win the majority of the time? That's a hasty and erroneous generalization.

Agreed. At first I thought this was about an outside horse sweeping by but if we're talking about prolonged battles, I don't think either horse necessarily has a clear advantage unless the inside horse is pinned right down on the rail. Off the top of my head, the 1973 and 2002 Hollywood Gold Cups featured stretch battles won by the inside horses. The 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup was a rather famous race in which the inside horse prevailed. More recently, the 2006 Longacres Mile featured a 1/2 mile battle won by the inside horse.
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby stark » Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:36 pm

Curtis wrote:Agreed. At first I thought this was about an outside horse sweeping by but if we're talking about prolonged battles, I don't think either horse necessarily has a clear advantage unless the inside horse is pinned right down on the rail. Off the top of my head, the 1973 and 2002 Hollywood Gold Cups featured stretch battles won by the inside horses. The 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup was a rather famous race in which the inside horse prevailed. More recently, the 2006 Longacres Mile featured a 1/2 mile battle won by the inside horse.


Since my memory is failing, I checked with an olde friend of yours, Fernando Toro. For whatever its worth he said that most times (and there were plenty of them) when he won closing inside on the rail it was in a TURF race, for whatever reason? Sandy Hawley and Alex Solis disagreed, hmmm.

Last add.....if PATCH ever gets the lead, I'm instructing my jock to pass him on the left ;)
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby Ridan_Remembered » Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:18 pm

blamethewinner wrote:Cherry picking 4 famous races where outside horses won stretch battles means that they win the majority of the time? That's a hasty and erroneous generalization.


No, of course not. They are just fun examples and not cherry picked at all. There are so many instances of the outside horse winning at all levels of the sport that I'm surprised pointing it out would even be controversial. It's fun to discuss potential reasons why this phenomenon occurs.
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby Curtis » Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:15 pm

stark wrote:
Curtis wrote:Agreed. At first I thought this was about an outside horse sweeping by but if we're talking about prolonged battles, I don't think either horse necessarily has a clear advantage unless the inside horse is pinned right down on the rail. Off the top of my head, the 1973 and 2002 Hollywood Gold Cups featured stretch battles won by the inside horses. The 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup was a rather famous race in which the inside horse prevailed. More recently, the 2006 Longacres Mile featured a 1/2 mile battle won by the inside horse.


Since my memory is failing, I checked with an olde friend of yours, Fernando Toro. For whatever its worth he said that most times (and there were plenty of them) when he won closing inside on the rail it was in a TURF race, for whatever reason? Sandy Hawley and Alex Solis disagreed, hmmm.

Last add.....if PATCH ever gets the lead, I'm instructing my jock to pass him on the left ;)

Years ago I used to meet up with a group at Hollywood Park and we would handicap and generally kibbutz. Toro on the turf came up and a couple of the group and myself floated the theory that it was more of a Hollywood Park, and to a lesser extent, Del Mar phenomenon. Both courses had infield chutes and Toro used to wait bottled up until he got to the area where the two courses widened and swing to the left and charge through and carry the momentum to the wire. Of course Shoemaker and Pincay knew that move too but "Shoe in the Chute" or "Pirate on the Green", never caught on like "Toro on the Turf". Of course we were labeled as blasphemous but we asked what Toro's win percentage was on the Santa Anita turf which had a permanent rail all the way around? I don't know if we won the debate, but it did get quiet. And for the record, there's no truth to the rumor that Tom Pratt was part of the group.
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby Spahny » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:21 pm

I have two hard rules of handicapping and only 2.

1. Class on top of everything else.
2. There is no such thing as a coincidence.
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby sweettalk » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:42 pm

Ridan_Remembered wrote:
blamethewinner wrote:Cherry picking 4 famous races where outside horses won stretch battles means that they win the majority of the time? That's a hasty and erroneous generalization.


No, of course not. They are just fun examples and not cherry picked at all. There are so many instances of the outside horse winning at all levels of the sport that I'm surprised pointing it out would even be controversial. It's fun to discuss potential reasons why this phenomenon occurs.

the fun police cannot be reasoned with. stop talking about fun things! no enjoying conversations here! :evil: :evil:

as an aside, watching the outside horse sweep up to the lead and wrestle away a win is always fun. unless you bet the inside horse then i guess probably not so fun. and this year's just a game had a fantastic inside winner!
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Re: Belmont Stakes

Postby Somnambulist » Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:25 pm

It's not the fun police.

It's a shame this place is a shadow of what it used to be. But comments like that are why. There's no use in really discussing racing anymore because the anti-inflammatory crowd left and instead gets comments like that.

People follow racing for many different reasons. Saying people are anti fun because they take racing to different than levelilly and unfair.
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