The Preakness

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Tessablue
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Fri May 19, 2017 7:21 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Kind of surprised how little respect Classic Empire seems to be getting semi universally.

Im not betting this one but Gunn has looked great to me and bigger than before the Derby. Maybe it's just good drugs.

I'm really crossing my fingers for a TC attempt. There is no better sports time than the 3 weeks leading up to one.
He's actually winning the poll over at the Paulick Report! I have seen more enthusiasm for him elsewhere compared to this site, but I think he'll get plenty of respect at the windows (no higher than 3-1, I'm guessing). I just don't think he's great value at those odds- can't toss him of course, but it's hard for me to judge exactly how good his best race is, because that Juvenile still stands far above the rest of his efforts from a pure figure perspective. I wouldn't be surprised if he won but I also wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in a blanket finish for 2nd/ 3rd/ 4th.
Spahny
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Fri May 19, 2017 8:29 pm

Horses are not the numbers that they are given and they are certainly not machines. They move forward and they regress, sometimes for mysterious reasons that could never be calculated. California Chrome sneezed a couple of years ago. Shocking. Always Dreaming is a tough sob to gallop. Yeah that meant something to someone. The best ones show up most if not all of the time but they are rare. Finding them at the right time at the best price is the game. This is why I like Classic Empire in the Preakness.

Classic Empire is very eligible to move forward in the Preakness. He is going to be in the fight so far as I can tell from here. I'm not exactly sure just how good he is but I can say that about Always Dreaming as well.

I am looking forward to a very good race. I think it is a match race. Right now Classic Empire is 4-1. That is a better deal than even money on the favorite or even Gunnevera at 12-1. If you like Cloud Computing or Multiplier at 20-1 I would bet them across the board. You'll get about 8-1 even if they run 3rd, which is about the best they will likely do.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri May 19, 2017 8:34 pm

It would be quite a feather in Maclean's Music's cap if Cloud Computing can pull off the win. MM only raced once and, while that one win was stunningly fast, it's kind of hard to tell what kind of stud a one-time runner will be.
From what I've seen, MM is throwing some runners. Who knows...maybe someday we'll be talking about him the same way we do about other great stallions who had abbreviated careers on the track. :P :D
tcw
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Fri May 19, 2017 11:01 pm

Spahny wrote:I am looking forward to a very good race. I think it is a match race.
I think a lot of people think that. Of the rest, I saw Caton B. on TVG from Pimlico and the "other" horse that's made a good impression in her opinion is Cloud Computing. Speaking of which, a catchy name for one of his future offspring would be "Azure". But not to digress, I give CE a got shot in here, with the possibility of a closer doing some real damage if AD, CE and possibly CC get into an early battle and set quick opening fractions.
Tessablue
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Sat May 20, 2017 1:24 am

Interestingly, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire were pretty close together in the Black Eyed Susan will-pays, and they are currently 4-5 and 5-2 in the win betting. The Derby winner does tend to get heavily bet down, but we might get some like even and 2-1 in the exotics. Will be keeping an eye on that tomorrow.

Anyways, I think I'm just going to key AD on top and play around with the tris and supers. I've elaborated above why I think he's a horse of considerable talent whom I believe to be notch above the rest of these. However, despite how highly I think of him, I won't be shocked by any result tomorrow. I don't love the draw reins and there is that nagging Pletcher trend in the Preakness - I think it's overstated, but there are so few datapoints for Pletcher in this situation that anything could be possible. That being said, on a scale of Super Saver to Smarty Jones, I lean heavily towards expecting the latter.

As for who else to key underneath... there are a lot of potential choices here. In some years I might just key Always Dreaming over Classic Empire and spread for third and fourth, and I'll do a bit of that, but I'm leery of depending on Classic Empire that much. I respect him a lot and he could absolutely win, but this will be his third tough start in five weeks and he's going to be pushed for speed earlier in this race than the others. He'll no doubt try, but if the tank is starting to empty a bit- or if Julien gets cute and goes after Always Dreaming too early- I fear he could get passed late.

Who might pass him? Well, I've been high on Conquest Mo Money for a bit now, and while he's unlikely to pass Classic Empire in the stretch, I think he's a talented, fresh horse who will run hard the entire way around. CMM has no quit in him and might appreciate a somewhat gentler pace than he has experienced in his last few starts. He has to clear and there's a chance he gets caught in a duel early, but I like him to just stick around in the stretch at a decent price.

I liked Hence a lot in the Derby and I'm happy to just draw a line through that race and hope for something better here. There's no way he wanted to be last early but he finished with a surprising amount of interest for an 11th place finisher. The talent is there, and I expect him to be midpack rather than far back early in this race. He has that sustained closing ability that makes him tough to fend off if he fires, and I can't really resist 20-1 or higher. The other horse I loved in the Derby, Gunnevera, is less intriguing to me- he's an honest horse and I'd love to see a good effort, but I worry that he's tailing off and I'm not sure he'll get his pace here. AD/ Gunnevera/ Hence was my Derby tri so I'll put a couple of bucks on it, but looking elsewhere for the most part.

I want to use one other horse underneath but I can't decide between Cloud Computing and Multiplier. CC I talked about above, he is certainly talented but has a lot of unknowns and may dislike the distance. Still, he looks fantastic and Brown knows what he's doing here. Multiplier is a horse who looks completely different depending on which PPs you're looking at, I still don't really have a read on him but his Illinois Derby was really good and he might be one of the strongest closers in here (and on that note, I'm content to let Lookin at Lee beat me- no disrespect, but he got just about the best Derby trip a horse can get, and I just don't think the race will shape up for him this time). I'm not really going out on a limb by picking literally half the horses in the race, but there's a lot of ambiguity in here besides the top two and I think the exotics could potentially pay out very nicely even if the favorite wins.

Always Dreaming
Classic Empire/ Hence
Conquest Mo Money/ Cloud Computing?
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Big Ten
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Sat May 20, 2017 2:45 am

I tend to redo and tweak my final wager like every few hours for a week or so leading up to the big race. I kept thinking how hard it is to make profit with a 4/5 chalk. Every angle, I have to risk alot to go double or nothing. I said to myself let the others try to beat me...

$40 Exacta
4 w/ 5 (15x20 = $300 payout)

$20 Exacta
4 w/ 1, 10 ($300-$400+ payout)

$40 Win
1 (25x40 = $1000 payout)

Total = $120

Forget DRF Beyers. Read up on Brisnet. The LP (Late Pace) had Irish War Cry at 80. He closed SLOW in the Wood. He should have been a toss in the Derby, yet, every idiot from DRF like Mike Watchmaker picked him to win.

Multiplier has a 102 and 106 LP in his last two races. The next highest from recency is 94 from both Lookin At Lee and Senior Investment. Beware. Matt Converse has his Sarava. Ken Rudolph has his Giacomo. Multiplier if he wins will be my longshot to remember fondly of.

#1 or #4 all the way ftw.

As much as I can't stand either Pletcher or Velazquez, I trust them more than Casse and Leparoux.

F the excuses. Always Dreaming is going to beat Classic Empire again. The excuse book from CE will get thrown out the window if he loses again here. This is zero emotions for any of the horses. No emotional attachment or TC dreaming. Tossing away past patterns and focusing solely at this race. This is simply based on paper or what I have seen on who is the better horse NOW. And that's Dreaming..

You can see it on Brisnet. It is clear as day. AD ranks #1, Multiplier and CMM round out the Top 3. Classic Empire is not even Top 5 even if you add his HB speed fig instead of Derby for last two combined. He will be overbet for "another chance" because of that troubled trip. Reminds me of Alyrob in the 1996 Santa Anita Derby getting blocked and showing nothing in Churchill. The same fools who bet on Irish War Cry after that slow Wood or gave another chance to McCraken after his Blue Grass defeat to Irap.

I don't see any 2010 Preakness deja vu here. Always Dreaming is no Super Saver. If he doesn't win, my #1 horse with a turn of foot like Afleet Alex might shock the bettors tomorrow if they assume AD or CE are mortal locks to win it. Multiplier is my "hedge fund" wager. High reward if he wins though. Even at 20-1, I would gladly take that $800 if he wins.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
peeptoad
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Sat May 20, 2017 8:17 am

Subject to change, but probably:

exacta: 4,5,10/1,2,4,5,10
1 Multipier-WPS
10 Conquest Mo-win

In the undercard races:
PIM8: #1 Mo Maverick (huge threat from the rail imo)
PIM10: #10 Cambodia
PIM12: 2,3,4,10 ex box (think #3 Top of Mind could provide value)

good luck
stark
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Sat May 20, 2017 10:12 am

At 9:30 this morning, this is how the odds board looked, probably won't change a whole lot as the day goes on......

1 Multiplier 14-1

2 Cloud Computing 16-1

3 Hence 16-1

4 Always Dreaming 3-2

5 Classic Empire 5-2

6 Gunnevera 10-1

7 Term of Art 25-1

8 Senior Investment 20-1

9 Lookin At Lee 7-1

10 Conquest Mo Money 9-1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Sat May 20, 2017 12:27 pm

Question for those that follow the auction news.....

what happened to Conquest Mo Money, how bad did he look, was there a red flag posted?

KEENOV 2878 Mixed N/A Judge Lanier Racing Lane's End $8,500 Sold

SARAUG Fasig-Tipton New York Saratoga 2015 Pref New York Bred Yearling Sale
375 Yearling N/A Conquest Stables Sequel Stallions New York $180,000 Sold
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat May 20, 2017 12:48 pm

I'm not happy to see how muddy the track is. I don't think any more rain is expected, so I really hope they can get it dried out before the Preakness runs.
Tessablue
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Sat May 20, 2017 12:56 pm

Always Dreaming currently 7-5, Classic Empire 2-1. We'll see how it changes, but those seem like very generous odds on the favorite.
peeptoad
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Sat May 20, 2017 2:10 pm

stark wrote:Question for those that follow the auction news.....

what happened to Conquest Mo Money, how bad did he look, was there a red flag posted?

KEENOV 2878 Mixed N/A Judge Lanier Racing Lane's End $8,500 Sold

SARAUG Fasig-Tipton New York Saratoga 2015 Pref New York Bred Yearling Sale
375 Yearling N/A Conquest Stables Sequel Stallions New York $180,000 Sold
CMM had issues with his ankles filling when Casse worked him early on before his race debut, thus he wound up in the dispersal for Conquest.
Apollo
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Sat May 20, 2017 2:20 pm

stark wrote:There's no rule that says you have to bet every race and I'm very tempted to pass on this one.
That's where I am. So far I have nothing. I'll likely end up with nothing. The matchups are simply not attractive. I passed on several matchups in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands! that were preferable to anything I see here.

Besides, the Preakness causes me to second guess. That's lingered for more than 20 years. I am seldom surprised by the performances of the top tier horses in the Derby. Point Given running such a dull race is the only example I can think of in semi recent history. In the Preakness I'm surprised/semi shocked quite frequently, although that again traces to the '90s more than 2000 forth. Still scarred, I guess.

I keep going back and forth between Always Dreaming, Classic Empire and Gunnevera. They key to the race, IMO, is whether the Classic Empire connections are confident or paranoid. I have no idea. There are indications in both directions. That's what keeps me away from the matchups and props.

If the Classic Empire folks are confident -- rationalizing that the Derby was mostly racing luck -- then they'll allow a normal race and pace while tracking Always Dreaming and assuming they'll merely outrun him late. In that scenario, the winner should come from among those two. I was favoring Classic Empire most of the week but his parimutuel odds and matchup odds carry too much benefit of a doubt.

If Classic Empire's camp is paranoid, then everything changes and countless permutations open up. We could have a version of the 1976 Preakness or 2015 Travers, with nose to nose frenzy in that critical midsection of the race. That opens things up for Gunnevera. He has shown enough to be the easy recipient of greatest confidence among the second tier types. Gunnevera at +140 to finish in the Top 4 is one of the props I strongly considered. He mostly has to defeat the stiff new shooters.

I don't handicap or consider the new shooters. As always, more often than not. I don't care about outliers. What is the best utilization of time and dollars?Once or twice per decade a new shooter actually means something. I'm more than willing to miss those one or two while comfy that I didn't waste time with the other eight or nine.
Matt Converse
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Sat May 20, 2017 2:37 pm

PIM-13

$10 ex box 1-9

$1 tri box 1-6-9-10

$2 super 1 w 5,9 w 4,5,9 w 4,5,9,10

$10 tri 1 w 4,5,9 w 4,5,9

$10 super 4 w 1,9 w 1,9 w 5, 4-5-9-1

$20 tri 4 w 1 w 5,9

$10 tri 4-5-10
stark
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Sat May 20, 2017 3:01 pm

peeptoad wrote:
CMM had issues with his ankles filling when Casse worked him early on before his race debut, thus he wound up in the dispersal for Conquest.
Thanks Peep,
$150,000>>>>180,000>>>>$8,500>>>>>Lone F Trip in the Preakness!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
the olline rebel
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Sat May 20, 2017 4:42 pm

Gunnevera-Multiplier-Always Dreaming

If it was wet, I might change to AD-Gunn-Mult.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat May 20, 2017 4:52 pm

The track appears to be drying out, although the Sir Barton winner, No Mo Dough, came from far back...and was covered in mud. His jock had run out of goggles by the time they came into the stretch and finished the race with nekkid eyeballs. :lol:
With a closer winning the Sir Barton, and Time To Travel, who dueled for the lead for most of the race, hanging on for 2nd, it looks like the track is playing pretty fair.
peeptoad
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Sat May 20, 2017 4:58 pm

Well, listening again to the audio post-Derby, that pretty much clinches there was a rail bias at CD that day.


Edit: although I think AD prob still wins this...
Tessablue
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Sat May 20, 2017 5:37 pm

I hope nobody is doing a "drink every time they mention Clasisc Empire's trip" drinking game...
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Personal Ensign
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Sat May 20, 2017 5:42 pm

Tessablue wrote:I hope nobody is doing a "drink every time they mention Clasisc Empire's trip" drinking game...
I hope not either, "The People's Party" looks pretty wild from what they have shown on the NBC telecast, it will be interesting to see how the horses being saddled outside respond to the rowdiness of the infield crowd
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
W. C. Fields



-Formerly LadyWeaver-
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