The Preakness

Re: The Preakness

Postby Tessablue » Sat May 20, 2017 12:56 pm

Always Dreaming currently 7-5, Classic Empire 2-1. We'll see how it changes, but those seem like very generous odds on the favorite.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby peeptoad » Sat May 20, 2017 2:10 pm

stark wrote:Question for those that follow the auction news.....

what happened to Conquest Mo Money, how bad did he look, was there a red flag posted?

KEENOV 2878 Mixed N/A Judge Lanier Racing Lane's End $8,500 Sold

SARAUG Fasig-Tipton New York Saratoga 2015 Pref New York Bred Yearling Sale
375 Yearling N/A Conquest Stables Sequel Stallions New York $180,000 Sold


CMM had issues with his ankles filling when Casse worked him early on before his race debut, thus he wound up in the dispersal for Conquest.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Apollo » Sat May 20, 2017 2:20 pm

stark wrote:There's no rule that says you have to bet every race and I'm very tempted to pass on this one.


That's where I am. So far I have nothing. I'll likely end up with nothing. The matchups are simply not attractive. I passed on several matchups in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands! that were preferable to anything I see here.

Besides, the Preakness causes me to second guess. That's lingered for more than 20 years. I am seldom surprised by the performances of the top tier horses in the Derby. Point Given running such a dull race is the only example I can think of in semi recent history. In the Preakness I'm surprised/semi shocked quite frequently, although that again traces to the '90s more than 2000 forth. Still scarred, I guess.

I keep going back and forth between Always Dreaming, Classic Empire and Gunnevera. They key to the race, IMO, is whether the Classic Empire connections are confident or paranoid. I have no idea. There are indications in both directions. That's what keeps me away from the matchups and props.

If the Classic Empire folks are confident -- rationalizing that the Derby was mostly racing luck -- then they'll allow a normal race and pace while tracking Always Dreaming and assuming they'll merely outrun him late. In that scenario, the winner should come from among those two. I was favoring Classic Empire most of the week but his parimutuel odds and matchup odds carry too much benefit of a doubt.

If Classic Empire's camp is paranoid, then everything changes and countless permutations open up. We could have a version of the 1976 Preakness or 2015 Travers, with nose to nose frenzy in that critical midsection of the race. That opens things up for Gunnevera. He has shown enough to be the easy recipient of greatest confidence among the second tier types. Gunnevera at +140 to finish in the Top 4 is one of the props I strongly considered. He mostly has to defeat the stiff new shooters.

I don't handicap or consider the new shooters. As always, more often than not. I don't care about outliers. What is the best utilization of time and dollars?Once or twice per decade a new shooter actually means something. I'm more than willing to miss those one or two while comfy that I didn't waste time with the other eight or nine.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Matt Converse » Sat May 20, 2017 2:37 pm

PIM-13

$10 ex box 1-9

$1 tri box 1-6-9-10

$2 super 1 w 5,9 w 4,5,9 w 4,5,9,10

$10 tri 1 w 4,5,9 w 4,5,9

$10 super 4 w 1,9 w 1,9 w 5, 4-5-9-1

$20 tri 4 w 1 w 5,9

$10 tri 4-5-10
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Re: The Preakness

Postby stark » Sat May 20, 2017 3:01 pm

peeptoad wrote:
CMM had issues with his ankles filling when Casse worked him early on before his race debut, thus he wound up in the dispersal for Conquest.


Thanks Peep,
$150,000>>>>180,000>>>>$8,500>>>>>Lone F Trip in the Preakness!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby the olline rebel » Sat May 20, 2017 4:42 pm

Gunnevera-Multiplier-Always Dreaming

If it was wet, I might change to AD-Gunn-Mult.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Sat May 20, 2017 4:52 pm

The track appears to be drying out, although the Sir Barton winner, No Mo Dough, came from far back...and was covered in mud. His jock had run out of goggles by the time they came into the stretch and finished the race with nekkid eyeballs. :lol:
With a closer winning the Sir Barton, and Time To Travel, who dueled for the lead for most of the race, hanging on for 2nd, it looks like the track is playing pretty fair.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby peeptoad » Sat May 20, 2017 4:58 pm

Well, listening again to the audio post-Derby, that pretty much clinches there was a rail bias at CD that day.


Edit: although I think AD prob still wins this...
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Tessablue » Sat May 20, 2017 5:37 pm

I hope nobody is doing a "drink every time they mention Clasisc Empire's trip" drinking game...
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Personal Ensign » Sat May 20, 2017 5:42 pm

Tessablue wrote:I hope nobody is doing a "drink every time they mention Clasisc Empire's trip" drinking game...


I hope not either, "The People's Party" looks pretty wild from what they have shown on the NBC telecast, it will be interesting to see how the horses being saddled outside respond to the rowdiness of the infield crowd
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
W. C. Fields



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