The Preakness

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BaroqueAgain1
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Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Tue May 16, 2017 12:58 am

It's pretty amazing that Royal Mo is standing so quietly for Gary, considering that he was running full out a moment before. And is probably feeling pain in his ankle.
IIRC, Gary said that the colt took care of him, and he took care of the colt.
What a good boy.
I hope he does well as a stallion.
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Big Ten
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Tue May 16, 2017 11:46 am

I remember hitting the 2004 Preakness trifecta since I loved Rock Hard Ten to hit the board which he did along with his sparring buddy, Eddington. Didn't pay much but it was good that Lion Heart ran 4th or payout would be far less.

But the worse was from 2008. Macho Again was 40-1 who I had to run 2nd. Big Brown was the obvious pick so I could recoup my losses from the Ky Derby. I did but it only pays $36.60 for the $2 exacta (x 2 = $73.20). I get a feeling AD would pay the same ranging from Senior Investment to run 2nd or whoever.

With the lack of speed since Royal Mo is gone, Conquest Mo Money has a very good chance to hit the board. He probably sets the pace and has never finished worse than 2nd in his career.

I also like Multiplier. He is no Bernardini or even as good as Sweetnorthernsaint as he didn't beat much in the Illinois Derby, but he never ran off the board. He beat Hedge Fund who finished behind Hence and Conquest Mo Money in the Sunland Derby.

Multiplier's last Brisnet speed figure of 104 is higher than AD's FL Derby and Ky Derby and higher than Hence's Sunland Derby. The only thing he hasn't shown us is beating classy horses as he barely won over Hedge Fund. Hawthorne is known to produce inflated numbers to me.

I don't trust the Gotham and Wood Memorial, so not high on Cloud Computing. We all saw how poorly Irish War Cry and J Boys Echo finished in the Derby. Lookin At Lee is the deepest closer in the field. Less early speed than Gunnevera and never has won a graded stakes race yet. LAL has already finished behind Classic Empire three times though.

Senior Investment did win the Lexington and beat West Coast, but I don't trust preps from Louisiana or Keeneland like I don't trust big numbers from Hawthorne. The representatives from California is weak this year with Term of Art the sole representative.

Best final preps of 2017
1. Florida Derby (G1)
2. Arkansas Derby (G1)
3. Santa Anita Derby (G1)

1. Always Dreaming (Florida Derby)
2. Classic Empire (Arkansas Derby)

3. Gunnevera (Florida Derby)
4. Hence (Sunland Derby)
5. Conquest Mo Money (Arkansas Derby)
6. Lookin At Lee (Arkansas Derby)
7. Multiplier (Illinois Derby)

8. Senior Investment (Lexington)
9. Cloud Computing (Wood Memorial)
10. Term of Art (Santa Anita Derby)
11. Lancaster Bomber (Two Thousand Guineas)

Graded Winners
Always Dreaming, G1 (two)
Classic Empire, G1 (two)

Gunnevera, G2 (two)
Lancaster Bomber, G2 turf (one)

Senior Investment, G3 (one)
Hence, G3 (one)
Multiplier, G3 (one)
Term of Art, G3 turf (one)

Always Dreaming will likely go off at 3-5 like Nyquist last year. He has been on a roll as a 3YO like California Chrome was three years ago. He runs 2nd twice as a 2YO. For 2017, he won all four starts combined with a 22 3/4 lengths. The now horse like Arrogate grabbing that baton from California Chrome twice. It's his turn...

Nyquist never experienced slop and it was a questionable ride from Mario G last year. Exaggerator was also the most annoying one-dimensional, luckiest horse I have ever seen. Super Saver can't be compared to this Pletcher horse as he lost to Line of David in Arkansas and was kinda flukey with his Derby win thanks to the rain and Borail.

Always Dreaming will win. Pletcher/Velazquez combo's very taste at shooting for Triple Crown history.

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/ ... wn-winners

Best TC winners (my rank) -
Secretariat
Citation
Seattle Slew
Affirmed
Count Fleet
American Pharoah
War Admiral
Whirlaway
Gallant Fox
Assault
Omaha
Sir Barton

Failed attempts since 1979 -
Spectacular Bid
California Chrome
Alysheba
Sunday Silence
Silver Charm
Big Brown
Smarty Jones
Real Quiet
Funny Cide
War Emblem
Pleasant Colony
Charismatic

I'll Have Another (injured)

Always Dreaming more like California Chrome or American Pharoah? Our 13th Triple Crown winner or bust?

Always Dreaming (never finished worse than 2nd)
0.70-1 x $60 Win on AD ($42 profit)
$20 Exacta Box AD & CE

I would do the Always Dreaming with All exactas and would love to see CMM or Multiplier run 2nd but I see no real profit with it if I spread my money $10 exactas across. And I like Classic Empire very much to either beat him or run 2nd.

At least with AD ftw, no worries of a longshot running 2nd that I don't have. The exacta could also be low like in 2008 even if a 40-1 longshot runs 2nd. My win ticket on AD is the saver for my chalky exacta box with the two G1 winners.

Hopefully, Always Dreaming & Classic Empire exacta pays about $15 minimum. 15 x 10 = $150 + $42 = $192. $100 win ticket on AD would probably only be an $84 profit. I still won't lose any capital if AD wins but CE doesn't run 2nd.

Always Dreaming looks rambunctious and ready to kick more ass! Like his pre-Derby workout, he is ready to rock-n-roll! I can't believe I am saying this, but go Pletcher and Johnny V! Go for the Crown!

Preakness Brisnet PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/content/2017/05/ ... dicapping/
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
blamethewinner
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Tue May 16, 2017 11:49 am

There's required reading in college classes that is shorter than a Big Ten post.
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Life At Zen
Posts: 1655
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Tue May 16, 2017 9:49 pm

^LOL
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:It's pretty amazing that Royal Mo is standing so quietly for Gary, considering that he was running full out a moment before. And is probably feeling pain in his ankle.
IIRC, Gary said that the colt took care of him, and he took care of the colt.
What a good boy.
I hope he does well as a stallion.
Smart colt.
A R R O G A T E
Paradise Woods, Lady Eli, Songbird, Ziconic
Gormley, Royal Mo, Shaman Ghost, Constellation

Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
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Treve
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Wed May 17, 2017 11:00 am

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... s-arrivals

Lookin' At Lee, Hence, Multiplier, Cloud Computing, Term of Art and Senior Investment all arrived yesterday.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Big Ten
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Wed May 17, 2017 12:31 pm

Multiplier - Could be the Preakness wiseguy horse the same way Hence was in the Derby, but tough to ignore the 107 Equibase speed fig from Multiplier or that 104 he earned from Brisnet last out.

The son of The Factor could be a factor here. His breeding doesn't worry me in this shorter race. He seems to have the fastest turn of foot like where I saw him close on Hedge Fund with a 12 sec last eighth. I caught that 2017 Illinois Derby on YouTube yesterday and it was pretty good to watch since he looked beaten.

His class is what is in question since Hedge Fund lost by 9 lengths to Hence and 4+ lengths to CMM prior. Then again, remember Arrogate in the Travers? Remember Bernardini after he won the Withers? Are you looking for a bombs away longshot to run at least 2nd and a newshooter? Multiplier could be it.

Three horses disappointed me in the Ky Derby -

Hence - Toss him. I look at his PPs and see mid-80's figs until the outlier in the Sunland Derby. Prior, he finished well behind Lookin At Lee. A horse known to finish multiple times behind Classic Empire. I was duped by that performance which cost me in the Derby.

Gunnevera - Might toss him for 2nd. I was never a Dialed In fan who ran 4th again in the Preakness. What keeps me hesitant is Mike Smith is on him. He might have peaked back in February. Sink or swim closer that won't get the setup here.

Irish War Cry - Not in this race but Raj ruined the chances for McCraken and Classic Empire by veering in. And his dud in the Derby didn't flatter Gunny's FOY.

$20 Exacta
Always Dreaming (3-5) over...
Classic Empire (4-1)
Conquest Mo Money (15-1)
Multiplier (30-1)

Maybe another Win and Place ticket on Multiplier. Even $20 on him to win can pay $500+ since he likely goes off 25 to 30-1. Or I can go all-in with the Dreaming with ALL. The biggest concern with Classic Empire is similar to the third choice, Gunnevera. Has CE already peaked? He hasn't run a triple fig since the BCJ.

Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, and Conquest Mo Money is all for speed which will hold up in this race with so many opponents who lack it. Cloud Computing has some early speed but he lacks class. I don't buy into his speed figs he earned in NY. The horse that seems to be improving with the fastest closing kick comes from Multiplier.

Highest last two speed Brisnet figs -
Always Dreaming - 102+100 = 202

Multiplier - 93+104 = 197
Conquest Mo Money - 95+99 = 194
Cloud Computing - 94+100 = 194
Lookin At Lee - 94+97 = 191

Classic Empire - 96+91 = 187
Senior Investment - 93+93 = 186
Term of Art - 92+92 = 184
Hence - 103+80 = 183
Gunnevera - 95+86 = 181

Just by looking at those numbers makes me want to toss Classic Empire and Gunnevera out of my exactas and go AD/CMM/Multiplier exacta box but they do have some back class. Classic Empire has G1 wins and speed that is tough to ignore. Gunnevera has a jock that we now call "Big Money" Mike. A nickname we used to say for Jerry Bailey.

Top 6 worthy for trifecta plays -

1. Always Dreaming (stalk)
2. Classic Empire (stalk)
3. Conquest Mo Money (speed)
4. Multiplier (midpack)

5. Lookin At Lee (deep closer)
6. Gunnevera (closer)
_

7. Hence
8. Senior Investment
9. Cloud Computing
10. Term of Art
11. Lancaster Bomber

In any weather condition, I like the chances of either the favorite or 2nd choice to win (80% pattern) with a longshot to run 2nd. That chances of the top two betting choices going 1-2 doesn't always happen. We saw it the last two years now.

These longshots could be Conquest Mo Money (15-1) who simply hangs around for the place/show or Multiplier (25-1) who might come charging late and has shown to be faster than Lookin At Lee and Gunnevera but at a YUUGE price.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Dusty
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Wed May 17, 2017 3:03 pm

When is the Post Position Draw?
May they run with the WIND
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9705
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Wed May 17, 2017 3:17 pm

IIRC, 5 PM Eastern/2 PM Pacific.
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Treve
Posts: 4267
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Wed May 17, 2017 3:18 pm

Yup that's correct - they'll be streaming it live from the Preakness facebook page.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Wed May 17, 2017 5:21 pm

1. Multiplier 30-1
2. Cloud Computing 12-1
3. Hence 20-1
4. Always Dreaming 4-5
5. Classic Empire 3-1
6. Gunnevera 15-1
7. Term of Art 30-1
8. Senior Investment 30-1
9. Lookin at Lee 10-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 15-1

Always Dreaming in the driver's seat again.
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Treve
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Wed May 17, 2017 5:23 pm

You gotta love the "big two" being side by side in the middle of the field. :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Tessablue
Posts: 3412
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Wed May 17, 2017 5:27 pm

Quick analysis: this draw wasn't going to make or break any horse, but both Always Dreaming and Classic Empire drew very well. It shouldn't be too tough for Conquest Mo Money to clear horses on his way to the front, given how everyone draw to his immediate inside is dropping back, but AD will be happy to take over the lead if he gets hung wide (Mo's connections must be feeling a bit unlucky right now, as he's chased quick paces wide in both of his last two starts). Cloud Computing might go for it from that inside post but I doubt it- if he does, I'm sure Johnny V will be happy to take back right off of him. And no matter where the big favorite ends up early, Classic Empire will be poised right off of him if he's ridden right.
peeptoad
Posts: 2674
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Thu May 18, 2017 5:40 am

No Lancaster Bomber, huh? I read a bunch about that horse and he's not even entered (not that I was going to bet him)...

Good draw for AD and CE. I think the outside pretty much ensures that CMM goes early, probably dragging the other along in his wake. I'm hoping Multiplier can just drop back and make a late run. I like him to juice up exotics underneath. I would expect an improved effort from Gunn as well; don't think he liked the slop at CD but he still managed 7th. Can wait to check the pps tonight...
peeptoad
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Thu May 18, 2017 8:11 am

trainer quotes re: post draw: http://www.xpressbet.com/readxbtoday?id=20012
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bare it all
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Thu May 18, 2017 11:09 am

Not sure why Lancaster Bomber had so much press about him coming over?

I did see twitter yesterday discussing CUNCO is coming to Chad Brown. Bet he shows up for some Belmont grass races.
the olline rebel
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Thu May 18, 2017 7:59 pm

Sorry, I don't hang around much anymore so don't read as thoroughly....

...but is there going to be a Preakness contest as for the Derby?
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Summer Bird
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Thu May 18, 2017 8:36 pm

Really hope Senior Investment has a decent showing here. The farm I work at bred him and they still own his dam Plaid, who is such an awesome mare to work with.
Izvestia
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Thu May 18, 2017 10:11 pm

I love how frigging handsome Cloud Computing is. Rooting for him based on looks.
Tessablue
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Thu May 18, 2017 11:16 pm

the olline rebel wrote:Sorry, I don't hang around much anymore so don't read as thoroughly....

...but is there going to be a Preakness contest as for the Derby?
Sorry, I wasn't planning on doing one because the Preakness field is so small. I can put one together if we get a full Belmont field, and there should be a big one for the Breeders' Cup later this year!
peeptoad
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Fri May 19, 2017 8:22 am

I took a long look at this race this morning on the train, and it seems like the off the pace types are really going to be up against it. My guess is the winner almost certainly will be a horse that's in one of the top 4 spots early on, both because of a projected (per multiple sources) moderate early pace and the fact that most of the closing types would need to run a career top to even make a race of it.
Therefore the 2,4,5,10 appear to have the best chance at the win. If a person thinks Mo Money can hang on for that extra 16th up front he's probably best value.
I can't get a clear read on Cloud Computing partly due to his brief resume, but also the 2 stakes he was in were run in a manner that probably compromised his chances. He certainly had no chance in the Wood in terms of where he was placed early. If the pace is reasonable here one would expect him to finish better, however I think his best race might come from a midpack position and that wold mean more ground to make up on a speed favoring track.
Barring those two, Classic Empire if far and away the most likely (mild) upset horse if there will be one.

Anyone have any sort of opinion on Cloud Computing?
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