The Preakness

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Treve
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Wed May 10, 2017 3:21 pm

What is the max field size for the Preakness again?
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed May 10, 2017 3:29 pm

IIRC, fourteen. Like the Kentucky Oaks.
Churchill should take a hint. :roll:
barbaro111
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Wed May 10, 2017 3:45 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IIRC, fourteen. Like the Kentucky Oaks.
Churchill should take a hint. :roll:

Yep 14 horses would be great for the derby
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Treve
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Wed May 10, 2017 5:21 pm

Thanks I couldn't remember if it was 12 or 14.
Would be fantastic to see a full gate for the Preakness.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Catalina
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Location: South Texas

Wed May 10, 2017 7:16 pm

barbaro111 wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IIRC, fourteen. Like the Kentucky Oaks.
Churchill should take a hint. :roll:

Yep 14 horses would be great for the derby
We can dream...
blamethewinner
Posts: 515
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Wed May 10, 2017 9:08 pm

Catalina wrote:
barbaro111 wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IIRC, fourteen. Like the Kentucky Oaks.
Churchill should take a hint. :roll:

Yep 14 horses would be great for the derby
We can dream...
LOL, there's a better chance of CD making the Derby a match race than there is them shortening the field to 12 or 14.

I have to ask, why is there a need to shorten the field? Because a few horses each year have bad trips? Because you're afraid there might be an incident? You can't make changes like that out of fear.

The Derby handles a ton of money. With each additional horse, you add significantly to handle. That's what makes the game viable. Period. Gambling. It's a gambling game. No bettors, no game.
stark
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Wed May 10, 2017 9:37 pm

blamethewinner wrote:With each additional horse, you add significantly to handle. That's what makes the game viable. Period. Gambling. It's a gambling game. No bettors, no game.
Not to mention the the 7 or 8 owners with dreams of running in the Derby and the money to bring an entourage of family and friends along with them, the game wouldn't be much without them either.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Apollo
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Wed May 10, 2017 10:47 pm

Credit to Classic Empire and Gunnevera for attending.

Many trainers would have waited until the Belmont with Classic Empire, taking the more cautious Empire Maker route. Always Dreaming is no cinch to win either the Preakness or Belmont. Line up and make him prove it.

Likewise with Gunnevera the Preakness obviously doesn't set up for closers as a rule but we've seen the exceptions, like Elocutionist in the '70s and Exaggerator in the slop last year.

If they leave it up to the new shooters only we might as well race in the parking lot, or some type of simulated version only. Actually, after visiting Laurel for the first time last November that track is so boring it would be ideal for simulated only.
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Big Ten
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Wed May 10, 2017 11:33 pm

Preakness
1) Always Dreaming
2) Classic Empire
3) Gunnevera

Add Lookin At Lee and Hence if you like for 3rd. Likes the jockey upgrade with Gunny but this isn't a race that suits his running-style although Exaggerator did win from behind last year.

Belmont
1) Classic Empire
Always Dreaming (2nd, 3rd, or off the board)

If Classic Empire wins the Preakness, then no rematch between them in Belmont. And a second time the reigning 2YO male champion defeats Pletcher's Derby winner in the Preakness.

Without Mastery, both are multiple G1 winners and the class of the next two jewels. Rain or shine, my Top 2 for the Derby is the same for the Preakness. Let's keep the Triple Crown Dream alive before the Empire strikes back in the Empire State!

Both the grandsons of Empire Maker. But one is the son of Pioneerof the Nile. Ya know what they say, "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt." Yeah, it runs its course through New York too. Maybe even in Maryland next Saturday. But let's keep on Dreaming... ;)

Always Classic/Empire Dreaming exacta box...

$40 Exacta Box
Always Dreaming / Classic Empire

Hope it pays $20-$30. Times 20 = $400-$600.

$10
Always Dreaming / Gunnevera
Classic Empire / Gunnevera
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Wed May 10, 2017 11:38 pm

Apollo wrote:
Likewise with Gunnevera the Preakness obviously doesn't set up for closers as a rule but we've seen the exceptions, like Elocutionist in the '70s and Exaggerator in the slop last year.
The ultimate equipment change on his back could indeed be the reason to expect an improved effort.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
katmandu
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Thu May 11, 2017 12:05 am

Miss Woodford wrote:I suppose the local boy Twisted Tom isn't pointed to this race? He won the Private Terms and the Tesio but he's not TC nominated. And if these races were beauty contests he'd win them all.
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He is a nice looking horse, although he may have been named after his right hind.
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Big Ten
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Thu May 11, 2017 12:34 pm

Looking at the 10-day, it looks like Preakness will get a fast track. Let's hope for some sunshine next weekend.

I've been wrong the last two runnings of the Preakness. Not since the California Chrome/Ride On Curlin exacta have I been correct which was the last time we got a fast track.

Obviously, Nyquist ran 3rd last year trying wet for the first time vs a runner-up who flourished on it. Two years ago, Dortmund and Firing Line didn't hit the board on such a gloomy day.

I'll Have Another (5-2)/Bodemeister (8-5)
Exacta - $18.60

California Chrome (1-2)/Ride On Curlin (10-1)
Exacta - $18.20

American Pharoah (4-5)/Tale of Verve (30-1)
Exacta - $124.40

^ Not bad exacta payout for an 8-horse field with a future TC winner thanks to Firing Line and Dortmund for not hitting the board.

Exaggerator (3-1)/Cherry Wine (20-1)
Exaxta - $88.40

Didn't include Animal Kingdom or Orb because they don't have the running-styles similar to Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. Hope we get a full field! Looks chalky if we get a fast track again like in 2012 and 2014. An $15-$18 exacta payout most likely.

After how bad Hence (11th) and Irap (18th) ran in the Derby, don't trust the Sunland Derby form anymore. So no thanks to Conquest Mo Money. The final preps I trust "mostly" from now on come from G1 preps...

G1 Florida Derby
G1 Arkansas Derby
G1 Santa Anita Derby

SA Derby is now the best race in Santa Anita during the winter/spring meet thanks to the Big Cap becoming a joke being in-between the Pegasus and Dubai. Pacific Classic is now the premier SoCal race for older horses.

Kentucky Derby 143
1) Always Dreaming (Florida Derby)
2) Lookin At Lee (Arkansas Derby)
3) Battle of Midway (SA Derby)
4) Classic Empire (Arkansas Derby)

Florida Derby -
Big Brown
Orb
Nyquist
Always Dreaming

Arkansas Derby -
Super Saver
American Pharoah

Santa Anita Derby -
I'll Have Another
California Chrome

80% from the last 10 Derby winners came from those three final preps above with the two exceptions coming from Mine That Bird (50-1/Sunland Derby) and Animal Kingdom (25-1/Spiral). Only rare exceptions will I trust horses who ran in the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Sunland Derby, Illinois Derby, Louisiana Derby, etc.

Top 3
Always Dreaming (Florida Derby)
Classic Empire (Holy Bull, Ark Derby)
Gunnevera (Holy Bull, FOY, FL Derby)

Always Dreaming beat Lookin At Lee by 2.75 lengths. Classic Empire beat Lookin At Lee by 1.5 lengths in Oaklawn. If CE didn't get trouble during the Derby start (watch the Churchill version and not the NBC one), he probably would have finished 2nd to AD losing by 1-1. 25 lengths. He was no doubt in my mind the 2nd best horse in the race.

I just want to watch Always Dreaming fly out of the gate and wire this field with Classic Empire running 2nd the entire way. The only legit G1 winners in the field. I keep getting visions of the 2012 Preakness finish. Either Always Dreaming wins comfortably or gets caught like his sire did late by Classic Empire.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Thu May 11, 2017 12:44 pm

TimeformUS‏
@TimeformUS

A 1st look @ our Preakness Contender Pace Projector.

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I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Izvestia
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Thu May 11, 2017 3:43 pm

Twisted Tom is a NY-bred. I believe they will point him to NY-bred stakes.
He is handsome!
stark
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Thu May 11, 2017 11:08 pm

If Roxy Roxborough‏ @RoxyLasVegas is right, it looks like the odds favor taking a swing against the derby champ.

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I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
blamethewinner
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Fri May 12, 2017 8:27 am

stark wrote:If Roxy Roxborough‏ @RoxyLasVegas is right, it looks like the odds favor taking a swing against the derby champ.

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This isn't an accurate line.
stark
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Fri May 12, 2017 11:13 am

blamethewinner wrote: This isn't an accurate line.
Roxy Roxborough‏ @RoxyLasVegas 21h21 hours ago
#Preakness 100 point line. My odds.

Hmmmm, Roxy usually says something like....if I see odds higher than these, I'm betting.

What would be an accurate line for you?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Premier Pegasus
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Fri May 12, 2017 11:15 am

I really want Always Dreaming to win the Preakness. It will make The Belmont a really good bettable race.
stark
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Fri May 12, 2017 1:13 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Not very pace heavy.
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I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Somnambulist
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Fri May 12, 2017 2:24 pm

I'm not sure what the point of that was, outside to remind me there is an ignore feature.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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