Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Somnambulist
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Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:36 pm

I wonder if it was him training at a higher altitude and just the perfect timing. There's some literature I think in exercise science that training at one had sort term benefits on performance.

Or at least I think I remember something like that.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Treve
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Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:10 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I wonder if it was him training at a higher altitude and just the perfect timing. There's some literature I think in exercise science that training at one had sort term benefits on performance.

Or at least I think I remember something like that.
Yes I think peeptoad mentioned that, but I wonder if that were the case if it would have lasted until Belmont. I know for humans who train and camp at higher altitudes the effect usually wears off pretty quick. It comes up a lot when discussing him, and I think it's mentioned with regards to others every now and then but off the top of my head I can't remember. There was a case here several years back about a woman who was contesting a dq based on increased hemoglobin, she had been sleeping and training at high altitude to naturally increase it, but she was accused of doping even if they couldn't find any substances in her samples. Can't remember how that ended.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Curtis
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Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:34 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I wonder if it was him training at a higher altitude and just the perfect timing. There's some literature I think in exercise science that training at one had sort term benefits on performance.

Or at least I think I remember something like that.
Perhaps Ridan Remembered can take Chip Woolley to lunch and get back to us. ;)
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Ridan_Remembered
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Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:33 pm

Admin wrote:I read the harbinger part the same way as Ridan and don't see why it's a problem for her to respond to it.
Thank you Admin, you are always kind and fair. I came across this article by Bill Nack written in 1990. This article might explain to those who didn't personally witness it, the breathtaking phenomenon that was Secretariat. To this day I remember the journey Bill Nack describes in his piece. To this day I can't read about Red's death without heartache and tears, and Bill's description is particularly touching. https://www.si.com/horse-racing/2015/01 ... ecretariat

As you say, perhaps believing a trainer is not the wisest thing, but I do believe what Lucien Laurin told me. And there are people still alive who could answer questions. Bill Nack practically lived with Secretariat from the time of the colt's first race as a two year old until Red's death. He probably could be reached easily enough. I think Charlie Davis is still alive, as are Roger Laurin and Ron Turcotte. Mrs. Tweedy is, of course, in her 90's. And there's the Hancocks. But the point is that no one here needs to take my word for anything. There are people who, if they choose, might respond to polite letters asking about Secretariat.

Regarding the 25th anniversary event in the Los Angeles area that Lucien Laurin attended, he happened to bring along a pair of shoes worn by Secretariat. They were mounted on a plaque. Lucien donated it to the silent auction for charity. Chris McCarron was high bidder for them. Anyone can contact Chris and ask about the pair of Secretariat's shoes he got from Lucien Laurin. Then you can consider how I know that detail if, as some here have implied, what I shared here isn't true.

As for me, I will never be able to put into words how much Secretariat means to me. On one of the home pages on my cell phone I have this photo of Red in his paddock at Claiborne grazing in the rain. If there's a hereafter, when my time comes I would like to be in a misty, rainy paddock watching Secretariat graze.

Image
Somnambulist
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Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:40 pm

Treve wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:I wonder if it was him training at a higher altitude and just the perfect timing. There's some literature I think in exercise science that training at one had sort term benefits on performance.

Or at least I think I remember something like that.
Yes I think peeptoad mentioned that, but I wonder if that were the case if it would have lasted until Belmont. I know for humans who train and camp at higher altitudes the effect usually wears off pretty quick. It comes up a lot when discussing him, and I think it's mentioned with regards to others every now and then but off the top of my head I can't remember. There was a case here several years back about a woman who was contesting a dq based on increased hemoglobin, she had been sleeping and training at high altitude to naturally increase it, but she was accused of doping even if they couldn't find any substances in her samples. Can't remember how that ended.
If it wears off pretty quickly I think it might not last 5 weeks. Maybe?

This thread has made me realize again how insane Rachel's Preakness was.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Insane Crazy
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Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:35 pm

No one said Red's Derby wasn't special...Or anything disparaging about him...At all.

Nevermind.

Som, good point about Rachel's Preakness. Mmmmm. Time to rewatch! Out of curiosity, Tessa, is your formula Derby specific? Or could it be translated to other races? I guess there really is no other race like the Derby.
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
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Treve
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Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:50 am

Yeah Rachel's Preakness was crazy she was pressed the entire way and still got it done. She ran the opening half mile in 46 and 3/5, after being floated wide in the first turn.
MTB was closing like a freight train at the end but Mike couldn't find a way through as they turned for home and ran out of real estate. I sometimes wonder what a real stretch battle would've been like between them.
What a marvellous filly RA was on the track!
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
peeptoad
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Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:50 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:I wonder if it was him training at a higher altitude and just the perfect timing. There's some literature I think in exercise science that training at one had sort term benefits on performance.

Or at least I think I remember something like that.
Yes I think peeptoad mentioned that, but I wonder if that were the case if it would have lasted until Belmont. I know for humans who train and camp at higher altitudes the effect usually wears off pretty quick. It comes up a lot when discussing him, and I think it's mentioned with regards to others every now and then but off the top of my head I can't remember. There was a case here several years back about a woman who was contesting a dq based on increased hemoglobin, she had been sleeping and training at high altitude to naturally increase it, but she was accused of doping even if they couldn't find any substances in her samples. Can't remember how that ended.
If it wears off pretty quickly I think it might not last 5 weeks. Maybe?

This thread has made me realize again how insane Rachel's Preakness was.
For humans I've read bunch of places that it has a widely variable effect, but the avergae length of time the conditioning lasts in humans once they move back to sea level is ~4-12 weeks.
Mine that Bird may have won for another reason or combination of reasons; imho the altitude he had been living and training in was one of them. He ran well enough in the Preakness, tailed off in the Belmont but still a good effort, and his subsequent race in the WV Derby was pretty subpar, given the company. Has the appearance of a horse tailing off.... for whatever reason.
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bare it all
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Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:37 am

Treve wrote:Yeah Rachel's Preakness was crazy she was pressed the entire way and still got it done. She ran the opening half mile in 46 and 3/5, after being floated wide in the first turn.
MTB was closing like a freight train at the end but Mike couldn't find a way through as they turned for home and ran out of real estate. I sometimes wonder what a real stretch battle would've been like between them.
What a marvellous filly RA was on the track!
I know we're on her Preakness, but Rachel's Oaks was so ridiculously impressive... I remember being there that day and everyone was picking their jaw up off the floor as she hit the wire. I mean, everyone figured she'd win, but like that?? She was an absolute monster and the fact she was able to continue on with her form and to win as she did in the Preakness and Mother Goose and fall 'colt' races speaks volumes of what kind of filly she was.
luvsgeldings
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Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:53 am

I was impressed with Mine That Bird's Preakness run - he was sure coming at the end - makes me wonder if he would have caught the filly if he had not been stopped there for a moment in the stretch - I remember mike smith after the race (he was on Bird), saying something like that too - that they had some little trouble there in the stretch - now I need to re-watch that race again - it was a good one.
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Treve
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Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:37 am

peeptoad wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:
Yes I think peeptoad mentioned that, but I wonder if that were the case if it would have lasted until Belmont. I know for humans who train and camp at higher altitudes the effect usually wears off pretty quick. It comes up a lot when discussing him, and I think it's mentioned with regards to others every now and then but off the top of my head I can't remember. There was a case here several years back about a woman who was contesting a dq based on increased hemoglobin, she had been sleeping and training at high altitude to naturally increase it, but she was accused of doping even if they couldn't find any substances in her samples. Can't remember how that ended.
If it wears off pretty quickly I think it might not last 5 weeks. Maybe?

This thread has made me realize again how insane Rachel's Preakness was.
For humans I've read bunch of places that it has a widely variable effect, but the avergae length of time the conditioning lasts in humans once they move back to sea level is ~4-12 weeks.
Mine that Bird may have won for another reason or combination of reasons; imho the altitude he had been living and training in was one of them. He ran well enough in the Preakness, tailed off in the Belmont but still a good effort, and his subsequent race in the WV Derby was pretty subpar, given the company. Has the appearance of a horse tailing off.... for whatever reason.
Agreed it probably helped. Although I disagree with the Belmont - Borel moved way too early (yes I rewatched the race last night) and completely misjudged the stretch at Belmont. I seem to recall that week he was in NY being interviewed on a bunch of talk shows and didn't get a single mount at the track besides Mine That Bird. That seems to be the undoing of a lot of jockeys who don't run at Belmont regularly.
WV Derby was subpar, but it was also after he was moved to Lukas so, probably a combination of factors.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:09 pm

I know that Lukas tends to be a lightning rod for blame in what ails many modern thoroughbreds, but he didn't get Mine That Bird until the horse was four. Whatever happened at three--good and bad--was all with Woolley.
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Treve
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Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:12 pm

Curtis wrote:I know that Lukas tends to be a lightning rod for blame in what ails many modern thoroughbreds, but he didn't get Mine That Bird until the horse was four. Whatever happened at three--good and bad--was all with Woolley.
My bad, I had just read an article that phrased it in such a manner that made it sound he was given to Lukas after the Belmont. Going back to re-read it, I see that's not what it says, but I guess the choice of words and the timing, was misleading :oops:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:53 pm

Insane Crazy wrote:No one said Red's Derby wasn't special...Or anything disparaging about him...At all.

Nevermind.

Som, good point about Rachel's Preakness. Mmmmm. Time to rewatch! Out of curiosity, Tessa, is your formula Derby specific? Or could it be translated to other races? I guess there really is no other race like the Derby.
You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!
Rick1323
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Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:52 am

Thanks for this....I found it fun and interesting.....
Everyone come home sound.....
aethervox
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Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:07 pm

Tessablue wrote: You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!
There's a media guide for the 2015 Preakness at http://www.preakness.com/sites/www.prea ... AKNESS.pdf

Have fun!
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:32 pm

Rick1323 wrote:Thanks for this....I found it fun and interesting.....
Thank you, I'm really glad you enjoyed it!
aethervox wrote:
Tessablue wrote: You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!
There's a media guide for the 2015 Preakness at http://www.preakness.com/sites/www.prea ... AKNESS.pdf

Have fun!
Well, there goes my summer :D Thank you so much for posting this, I can't wait to dive into it!
aethervox
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:29 am

Tessablue wrote:Well, there goes my summer :D Thank you so much for posting this, I can't wait to dive into it!
Just in case you run out of stuff to do, there's a 2017 Belmont Stakes Media Guide listed at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/about/media-guides. Not sure if the charts are there or in the 'History' media guide.
Tessablue
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:59 pm

aethervox wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Well, there goes my summer :D Thank you so much for posting this, I can't wait to dive into it!
Just in case you run out of stuff to do, there's a 2017 Belmont Stakes Media Guide listed at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/about/media-guides. Not sure if the charts are there or in the 'History' media guide.
Awesome, I will definitely check those out. Thanks again!
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