Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby Treve » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:37 am

peeptoad wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:
Yes I think peeptoad mentioned that, but I wonder if that were the case if it would have lasted until Belmont. I know for humans who train and camp at higher altitudes the effect usually wears off pretty quick. It comes up a lot when discussing him, and I think it's mentioned with regards to others every now and then but off the top of my head I can't remember. There was a case here several years back about a woman who was contesting a dq based on increased hemoglobin, she had been sleeping and training at high altitude to naturally increase it, but she was accused of doping even if they couldn't find any substances in her samples. Can't remember how that ended.


If it wears off pretty quickly I think it might not last 5 weeks. Maybe?

This thread has made me realize again how insane Rachel's Preakness was.

For humans I've read bunch of places that it has a widely variable effect, but the avergae length of time the conditioning lasts in humans once they move back to sea level is ~4-12 weeks.
Mine that Bird may have won for another reason or combination of reasons; imho the altitude he had been living and training in was one of them. He ran well enough in the Preakness, tailed off in the Belmont but still a good effort, and his subsequent race in the WV Derby was pretty subpar, given the company. Has the appearance of a horse tailing off.... for whatever reason.


Agreed it probably helped. Although I disagree with the Belmont - Borel moved way too early (yes I rewatched the race last night) and completely misjudged the stretch at Belmont. I seem to recall that week he was in NY being interviewed on a bunch of talk shows and didn't get a single mount at the track besides Mine That Bird. That seems to be the undoing of a lot of jockeys who don't run at Belmont regularly.
WV Derby was subpar, but it was also after he was moved to Lukas so, probably a combination of factors.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby Curtis » Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:09 pm

I know that Lukas tends to be a lightning rod for blame in what ails many modern thoroughbreds, but he didn't get Mine That Bird until the horse was four. Whatever happened at three--good and bad--was all with Woolley.
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby Treve » Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:12 pm

Curtis wrote:I know that Lukas tends to be a lightning rod for blame in what ails many modern thoroughbreds, but he didn't get Mine That Bird until the horse was four. Whatever happened at three--good and bad--was all with Woolley.


My bad, I had just read an article that phrased it in such a manner that made it sound he was given to Lukas after the Belmont. Going back to re-read it, I see that's not what it says, but I guess the choice of words and the timing, was misleading :oops:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby Tessablue » Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:53 pm

Insane Crazy wrote:No one said Red's Derby wasn't special...Or anything disparaging about him...At all.

Nevermind.

Som, good point about Rachel's Preakness. Mmmmm. Time to rewatch! Out of curiosity, Tessa, is your formula Derby specific? Or could it be translated to other races? I guess there really is no other race like the Derby.

You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby Rick1323 » Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:52 am

Thanks for this....I found it fun and interesting.....
Everyone come home sound.....
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby aethervox » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:07 pm

Tessablue wrote:You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!


There's a media guide for the 2015 Preakness at http://www.preakness.com/sites/www.preakness.com/files/pdfs/2015MediaGuide-PREAKNESS.pdf

Have fun!
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby Tessablue » Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:32 pm

Rick1323 wrote:Thanks for this....I found it fun and interesting.....
Thank you, I'm really glad you enjoyed it!
aethervox wrote:
Tessablue wrote:You could hypothetically apply it to any race that has a reasonably strong historical correlation between pace and final time. I'd love to do similar figures for the Preakness and Belmont; however, I don't have historical charts readily available for either of those races. If I get my hands on a media guide like I did for the Derby, I'll look into doing so!


There's a media guide for the 2015 Preakness at http://www.preakness.com/sites/www.preakness.com/files/pdfs/2015MediaGuide-PREAKNESS.pdf

Have fun!
Well, there goes my summer :D Thank you so much for posting this, I can't wait to dive into it!
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby aethervox » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:29 am

Tessablue wrote:Well, there goes my summer :D Thank you so much for posting this, I can't wait to dive into it!


Just in case you run out of stuff to do, there's a 2017 Belmont Stakes Media Guide listed at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/about/media-guides. Not sure if the charts are there or in the 'History' media guide.
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Re: Ranking the Derbys: A Quantitative Analysis

Postby Tessablue » Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:59 pm

aethervox wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Well, there goes my summer :D Thank you so much for posting this, I can't wait to dive into it!


Just in case you run out of stuff to do, there's a 2017 Belmont Stakes Media Guide listed at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/about/media-guides. Not sure if the charts are there or in the 'History' media guide.

Awesome, I will definitely check those out. Thanks again!
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