MySaladDays wrote:ARK derby looks like an interesting race.
Didn't know Rockin Rudy was joining. That's an interesting one. I was suprised to see this one, don't even know anything about him cuz I don't follow Calif racing. Turf horse that trainer has been putting tons of long dirt workouts into. Too much too late maybe. Or, does Oneil have another horse shipping in for other OP races that day?
Locals don't usually win this race. The 2 locals who did were closers (Arch arch arch and Creator). Maybe that bodes well for Lookin at Lee.....finally.
But shippers usually win, in 10 years, pletcher 2x, , baffert 2x (seems like more but it isn't, he's sent 47 horses to OP and all but 4 of them were in stakes) but Asmussen has also won 2x. (Pletcher won 2x more but before 10 years ago.)
Pace is usually fast, pressers and stalkers close to pace do best here.
It's my local track. But still kinda "quirky" Will be raining most of the week here..... but Sat looks clear so far! Going early so not sure I will be online again to check in before the race. GL to everyone. I have a lot of jockey stats but no time to enumerate them.
I just noticed that Malagacy has more going against him than you can shake a stick at, for the KY Derby. He wins welll at 5.5F, 6.5F and 1-1/16th, so I'm curious to see how he does at 9F. He's got Apollo Curse, a DI of 6.20 ( I asked myself, is this a reincarnation of Jackson Bend???),, no Storm Cat has ever won the Derby, and then.......the dreaded Pletcher -factor in KY Derby.
BTW, Dont' get me wrong I love love love Jackson Bend, I mean, sTanley gold kep him racing til age 7, for the pleasure of racing fans, which is unheard of today, that was one of my favorite barns.......he ran a lot of stakes and did great, was JUST the kind of little racehorse I would love to own.....but races were at quite a bit shorter than derby. He ran 12th in the Derby).
I was joking to my brother, betting on Malagacy in the Derby is almost like..........a dare. I may have to just put some $$ on him in May
Tessablue wrote:An interesting factor: One Liner needs points here. Pletcher could have shipped him west or had him face either Tapwrit or Battalion Runner (who also needed points, so that would never happen), but he chose to keep him in Oaklawn and run him against Malagacy. They each won a local prep so it does make sense to keep them at Oaklawn, but I wonder if this also indicates that Pletcher believed Tapwrit would be a more dangerous foe than Malagacy. I'ts also a little odd that he's giving his two least-experienced candidates the shortest rest leading up to the Derby, but that will merit more consideration after the race has been run.
Conquest Mo Money is definitely interesting, and I'd love to get the chance to evaluate the Sunland Derby field better.
Treve wrote:It is a pretty interesting race points-wise I think Malagacy and Untrapped are the only ones in the field right now who are in the "top 20" leaderboard for Derby points. And since Untrapped is sitting at #20 while Malagacy is at #12, that means Malagacy is the only one that can afford to finish off the board, and provided he has an excuse, to perform poorly. And as it is now, only Untrapped and Classic Empire can afford to finish as low on the board as 3rd. Most of them will need to finish in the Exacta, and a few can only get on that last train to Louisville with a win. I think that will probably factor into the dynamic of the race and how much their riders ask of them.
stark wrote:Misc news....
Byron King @DRFByronKing 58m58 minutes ago
Mike Smith to ride Louisiana Derby winner Girvin in the #KyDerby, Joe Sharp just told DRF
David Grening @DRFGrening 2h2 hours ago
Kentucky Derby news: One Liner off trail; Battalion Runner still very much possible to run http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36100
Tessablue wrote:One Liner is out indefinitely after a subpar work this morning. Which is very unfortunate, given that he appears to have loads of talent. Credit to WinStar for backing off him; this isn't the first time they've done it but last time they had a viable alternative (and he ended up winning the race).
Lookin At Lee, a deep closer, was beaten only 3 3/4 lengths in the Rebel, which is the final major local prep for the Arkansas Derby. His last five starts have been at 1 1/16 miles, but his connections believe he will benefit from the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby distance.
"I think we're feeling pretty good," said Levinson, who named Lookin At Lee. "We're glad the races are finally starting to stretch out for us. Obviously you watch the races and he just needs more ground.
Mike Langford has campaigned two millionaires, but it's a horse with $256,800 in earnings under the care of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen that the Jonesboro, Ark., owner calls his most talented runner to date.
"At this stage, absolutely," Langford said of lightly raced Untrapped. "He's the total package. Like Steve was saying, he's so smart. You can literally shoot a cannon beside him and he'd look at the cannon and say, 'Why did you do that?' He doesn't get rattled. The other horses just didn't have the talent this colt has."
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