Arkansas Derby

Arkansas Derby

Postby stark » Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:58 pm

Probables?

Classic Empire,
Conquest Mo Money,
Lookin at Lee,
Malagacy,
One Liner,
Petrov,
Rockin Rudy,
Sonneteer,
Silver Dust
Untrapped.

Any last minutes surprise entires i.e. Baffert declaring his last hope WestCoast is suddenly ready after working tomorrow morning?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby Spahny » Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:00 pm

stark wrote:
Any last minutes surprise entires i.e. Baffert declaring his last hope WestCoast is suddenly ready after working tomorrow morning?


That's odds on.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby tcw » Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:03 pm

He'd probably be better off to run Reach the World back off a week's rest. I actually think he could hit the board in here.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby honneerider » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:14 pm

I, for one, will miss a Baffert entry. Love his quotes
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby Ack Ack » Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:04 am

honneerider wrote:I, for one, will miss a Baffert entry. Love his quotes


Me, too. Won't be the Derby without him.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby stark » Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:24 pm

Spahny wrote:
stark wrote:
Any last minutes surprise entires i.e. Baffert declaring his last hope WestCoast is suddenly ready after working tomorrow morning?


That's odds on.


West Coast to run in Lexington at Keeneland; worked 5f in 1:00.40 this morning.
Same day as the Arkansas Derby, hmmmmm, the door is still open a crack!?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby tcw » Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:26 pm

Even a win in the Lexington would only give WC 10 points, which is very unlikely to be enough points.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby stark » Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:11 pm

tcw wrote:Even a win in the Lexington would only give WC 10 points, which is very unlikely to be enough points.


There should be a long list of folks looking in the mirror and saying "maybe next year" even though they have enough points.

I'm waiting for the last possible moment before trashing my future bet ticket. :shock:
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby MySaladDays » Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:31 am

tcw wrote:He'd probably be better off to run Reach the World back off a week's rest. I actually think he could hit the board in here.


I don't agree. Reach the World needs more distance, watch the race again, he needs a tad more to make the proper close.

I have him pencilled in for the Belmont.

JMHO from watching the race a few times since it ran.
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Re: Arkansas Derby

Postby MySaladDays » Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:37 am

ARK derby looks like an interesting race.

Didn't know Rockin Rudy was joining. That's an interesting one. I was suprised to see this one, don't even know anything about him cuz I don't follow Calif racing. Turf horse that trainer has been putting tons of long dirt workouts into. Too much too late maybe. Or, does Oneil have another horse shipping in for other OP races that day?

anyway,

Locals don't usually win this race. The 2 locals who did were closers (Arch arch arch and Creator). Maybe that bodes well for Lookin at Lee.....finally. :)

But shippers usually win, in 10 years, pletcher 2x, , baffert 2x (seems like more but it isn't, he's sent 47 horses to OP and all but 4 of them were in stakes) but Asmussen has also won 2x. (Pletcher won 2x more but before 10 years ago.)

Pace is usually fast, pressers and stalkers close to pace do best here.

It's my local track. But still kinda "quirky" Will be raining most of the week here..... but Sat looks clear so far! Going early so not sure I will be online again to check in before the race. GL to everyone. I have a lot of jockey stats but no time to enumerate them.


I just noticed that Malagacy has more going against him than you can shake a stick at, for the KY Derby. He wins welll at 5.5F, 6.5F and 1-1/16th, so I'm curious to see how he does at 9F. He's got Apollo Curse, a DI of 6.20 ( I asked myself, is this a reincarnation of Jackson Bend???),, no Storm Cat has ever won the Derby, and then.......the dreaded Pletcher -factor in KY Derby.

BTW, Dont' get me wrong I love love love Jackson Bend, I mean, sTanley gold kep him racing til age 7, for the pleasure of racing fans, which is unheard of today, that was one of my favorite barns.......he ran a lot of stakes and did great, was JUST the kind of little racehorse I would love to own.....but races were at quite a bit shorter than derby. He ran 12th in the Derby).

I was joking to my brother, betting on Malagacy in the Derby is almost like..........a dare. :lol: :lol: I may have to just put some $$ on him in May
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