The Rebel

Re: The Rebel

Postby Tessablue » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:19 am

Pletcher's Derby entries date back to 2000, a span in which favorites have won eight of seventeen runnings, nine if you count Barbaro as in a tie with Sweetnorthernsaint. The winner with the next-lowest price in that span was Super Saver at 8-1 and Pletcher has also seen horses hit the board at 30-1 and 55-1. I don't think he's a positive, but I also see no need to view his record outside of its context. He has run a lot of poor contenders- whether that is a function of his choices or training methods is debatable, but I do lay the ultimate responsibility for entering and running in the Derby at the feet of his owners.

Baffert, by comparison, does quite well with his favorites and very poorly with his longshots. He has also had very few longshots, and a lot of favorites, comparatively speaking. Baffert horses tend to run precisely at their expected level, but they rarely if ever surprise in a positive way.
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Kennedy » Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:27 pm

Baffert has had an amazing 6 Derby favorites among his 27 entrants.

He is 1 for 6 with Derby favorites

16 of his 27 entrants finished in a placing below the expectation of their odds.

19 of his 27 entrants have gone off at lower than 10/1

His overall Derby record is 27-4-3-3

War Emblem is the only entrant he has ever had hit the board at greater than 10/1

Baffert is one of the greatest Derby trainers of all time but what he really seems to excel at is not just getting horses to the Derby. He gets live, top quality contenders to the Derby.

Pletcher by comparison would seem to be one of the greatest trainers of all time at getting horses to the Derby. He wins an amazing number of prep races and seems to find a way of getting all types of horses to the Derby. But by comparison very few of his entrants are real Derby horses. Very few are of the same quality as Baffert brings and thus he wins far less often.
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Re: The Rebel

Postby MySaladDays » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:03 pm

Tessablue wrote:I'm not terribly interested in any of these going forward but we'll see.

The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finish in the REBEL as by nose hairs. LItereally. I have a photo of it. To me kinda dumb to put Untrapped, Petrov or Sonneteeer ahead of each other in my mind.

So I'll stick with Petrov. :) out of those 3 (untrapped, sonnetteer).

Malagacy's figs took a hit going longer. Not sure I would support him.

Here are bris speeds:

I tend to like the ones around 96-99. Many horses have won the KY Derby with those bris speeds. HOwever, I prefer to see them at 1-1/8th, so will wait for a few more races. Many of the ones in the 100+ bris speeds on here RIGHT NOW are tosses for me in the derby

Also keep in mind, Oaklawn has intsalled some of the most restrictive testing for drugs (super testing) and also a newer one for milkshaking this year, and that the track is not fast or cement like GS or SA

BRIS Speed
J BOYS ECHO Gotham (1st)104
GORMLEY Sham (1st)102
GUNNEVERA Fountain of Youth (1st)102
IRISH WAR CRY Holy Bull (1st)102
ONE LINER Southwest (1st)101
TAPWRIT Tampa Bay Derby (1st)101
CLOUD COMPUTING Gotham (2nd)100
EL AREEB Jerome (1st)100
EL AREEB Withers (1st)99
MCCRAKEN Sam Davis (1st)99
GIRVIN Risen Star (1st)98
UNCONTESTED Smarty Jones (1st)97
GUNNEVERA Holy Bull (2nd)97
PETROV Southwest (2nd)97
TAPWRIT Sam Davis (2nd)97
STATE OF HONOR Tampa Bay Derby (2nd)96
UNTRAPPED Risen Star (2nd)96
STATE OF HONOR Sam Davis (3rd)96
MALAGACY Rebel (1st)95
ROYAL MO Robert Lewis (1st)95
PRACTICAL JOKE Fountain of Youth (2nd)95
THREE RULES Fountain of Youth (3rd)95
WILD SHOT Sam Davis (4th)95
ILIAD San Felipe (2nd)94
TRUE TIMBER Withers (2nd)94
WILD SHOT Tampa Bay Derby (3rd)94
GUEST SUITE Lecomte (1st)93
SONNETEER Rebel (2nd)93
J BOYS ECHO Withers (3rd)93
LOCAL HERO Risen Star (3rd)93
UNTRAPPED Rebel (3rd)93
GUEST SUITE Risen Star (4th)93
NO DOZING Tampa Bay Derby (4th)93
PETROV Rebel (4th)93
CLASSIC EMPIRE Holy Bull (3rd)92
TERM OF ART San Felipe (3rd)92
IRAP Robert Lewis (2nd)91
PETROV Smarty Jones (2nd)91
UNTRAPPED Lecomte (2nd)91
EL AREEB Gotham (3rd)91
ACTION EVERYDAY Gotham (4th)91
GORMLEY San Felipe (4th)91
ZAKAROFFEl Camino Real Derby (1st)90
SHEER FLATTER Robert Lewis (3rd)90
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