The Rebel

Re: The Rebel

Postby Tessablue » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:19 pm

stark wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Regarding Pletcher, his record in the Derby isn't quite as bad as it looks because he has been asked to run a lot of no-hopers.


Really?
Did it go something like this....

Pletcher: Well, we're not coming up to the Derby like I had hoped.
Owner: Do you think we have any shot at all?
Pletcher: Quite honestly, nope, none at all.
Owner: Well that's just great, enter him anyway.
Pletcher: Okie dokie!

Given his owners, yeah, probably. You really think he wanted to run We Miss Artie?
Tessablue
 
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Re: The Rebel

Postby Life At Zen » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:33 pm

If your horse has qualified why would you not run? Especially with long shot winners like Giacomo and Mine That Bird. It's pretty rare for owners to choose not to run. It's the Kentucky Derby.
A R R O G A T E
Paradise Woods, Lady Eli, Songbird, Ziconic
Gormley, Royal Mo, Shaman Ghost, Constellation

Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
User avatar
Life At Zen
 
Posts: 1568
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: The Rebel

Postby Somnambulist » Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:11 pm

Tessablue wrote:
stark wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Regarding Pletcher, his record in the Derby isn't quite as bad as it looks because he has been asked to run a lot of no-hopers.


Really?
Did it go something like this....

Pletcher: Well, we're not coming up to the Derby like I had hoped.
Owner: Do you think we have any shot at all?
Pletcher: Quite honestly, nope, none at all.
Owner: Well that's just great, enter him anyway.
Pletcher: Okie dokie!

Given his owners, yeah, probably. You really think he wanted to run We Miss Artie?


I think he publically came out and stated he wasn't a fan of running him. Or was that a more recent starter?

Blue Burner? Keyed Entry? Other horses who we only know the names of because of this perinneal convo? Not really sure why people like to forget the sheer amount of no hopers he has started. I don't know not winning the Derby more is such a knock on him.

If you wanted to talk his bad record in the BC Classic or something that's different.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
User avatar
Somnambulist
 
Posts: 6762
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Re: The Rebel

Postby Tessablue » Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:24 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
I think he publically came out and stated he wasn't a fan of running him. Or was that a more recent starter?

Blue Burner? Keyed Entry? Other horses who we only know the names of because of this perinneal convo? Not really sure why people like to forget the sheer amount of no hopers he has started. I don't know not winning the Derby more is such a knock on him.

If you wanted to talk his bad record in the BC Classic or something that's different.

We Miss Artie was about as close as he's been to declaring a horse a no-hoper. I recall several candid quotes regarding him, but here's an article where Ramsey said "the colt would not be withdrawn without physical issue." (http://www.kentucky.com/sports/horses/kentucky-derby/article44486790.html). Of course, we now know that even physical issue isn't enough for Ramsey to withdraw voluntarily...

Some of Pletcher's horses have run exactly as they were supposed to (Revolutionary, Super Saver, Danza). Some ran greatly above expectations (Impeachment, Bluegrass Cat, Invisible Ink, More than Ready). I think an argument can be made that that he's had a disproportionate number of flops (Bandini, Scat Daddy, Carpe Diem, Gemologist, Verrazano, etc.), and I'm generally deeply skeptical of his horses in the race, but he has a lot of difficult-to-please owners and I'm sure he would have rather run many of those horses elsewhere.
Tessablue
 
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Re: The Rebel

Postby Starine » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:54 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:With his build, he looks like a horse who probably wasn't precocious. IIRC, the Midnight Lutes tend to get better with some maturity, and Sonneteer looks quite a bit like his sire.
I wonder if he'll be brought back in the Arkansas Derby?


Update per Bloodhorse:

"We are definitely proud of our horse and the way he ran," Julie Clark, trainer Keith Desormeaux's assistant, said. "I was talking with Rich and he said he's still a little green. He's still a maiden but he said he did everything right. When Rich asked him to do something, he followed through. He felt like he had a lot of horse under him.

"He (Sonneteer) was a little hesitant down on the rail, but he kept pushing through, and when the horse came to him about a sixteenth (of a mile) out, he pushed on. This was a big step forward for him, a giant step."

If all remains on schedule, Sonneteer and Malagacy will get their rematch in the Arkansas Derby (G1) April 15.

"There's a good chance he'll be back for the Arkansas Derby," Clark said. "He ships really well, and obviously, the surface here agrees with him."


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... good-order
User avatar
Starine
 
Posts: 3184
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:39 am
Location: South Carolina

Re: The Rebel

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:45 am

Thanks for that update.
I haven't gotten much in the way of warm fuzzy fan feelings for the colts I've seen so far on the Derby trail, but I really loved the way Sonneteer looked in the Rebel post parade. Just a striking horse...and surprise! He can run a little, too. :P :D
BaroqueAgain1
 
Posts: 7107
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Re: The Rebel

Postby sweettalk » Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:38 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Thanks for that update.
I haven't gotten much in the way of warm fuzzy fan feelings for the colts I've seen so far on the Derby trail, but I really loved the way Sonneteer looked in the Rebel post parade. Just a striking horse...and surprise! He can run a little, too. :P :D

i said the same earlier, still having some trouble picking a favourite. sonneteer, as with you, as crept into my sights tho...
Live by the sword, die by the sword. Health emergencies are on the rise near that sword. A class-action suit is pending.
User avatar
sweettalk
 
Posts: 1656
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:05 pm

Re: The Rebel

Postby Matt Converse » Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:02 pm

x
Last edited by Matt Converse on Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Matt Converse
 
Posts: 3029
Joined: Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:10 pm
Location: San Francisco

Re: The Rebel

Postby Matt Converse » Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:03 pm

Tessablue wrote:Regarding Pletcher, his record in the Derby isn't quite as bad as it looks because he has been asked to run a lot of no-hopers. Of the 45 horses he has run in the Derby, 22 went off at odds of more than 20-1 and his median odds have been 19.8-1. He has never started a favorite or a horse lower than 5-1 (believe it or not, his lowest-priced horse was Dunkirk), and his record among horses who started at less than 10-1 is 12-1-0-3, with the caveat that two of those horses were an entry. However, this is all complicated a bit by the fact that a lot of his horses are hyped leading up to the Derby but end up curiously dead on the board on race day (examples: Verrazano, Carpe Diem, Destin). Overall, I would say that although his record is not as bad as it is often made out to be, he is still a neutral factor at best when it comes to Derby horses.

Malagacy certainly deserves props for conquering his first route attempt, but like others have said, it's very difficult to imagine him moving forward at 10f.


Thanks! That's what I was wondering, was he ever actually supposed to win it with a big favorite? So it actuality the bettors picked him to go 0 for 45 and he went 1 for 45.
Matt Converse
 
Posts: 3029
Joined: Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:10 pm
Location: San Francisco

Re: The Rebel

Postby Admin » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:06 am

Do the favorites always win the Derby? Or don't horses with the odds that Pletcher's horses have had win pretty regularly too? You can't just say his horses ran as expected per the odds unless they all do, and we know that's not true.

Besides once with Ramsey, I've not heard of an owner twisting Pletcher's arms to run their horses in the Derby. I see no reason to therefore not hang all the runners on Pletcher except the one. His percentage is what it is, and it's a fair representation of what he leads over to the race. Is it better or worse than his percentage in other big races? I don't like Pletcher as my trainer for the Derby, and I do like Baffert. There are others I like and don't like. They've proven that they'll only lead over one who has a big chance or they throw darts at a board. They prove they know how to have the horse peak for this particularly race or they don't.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 1808
Joined: Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:35 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: blamethewinner, Squally and 15 guests