The Rebel

Re: The Rebel

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:47 am

With his build, he looks like a horse who probably wasn't precocious. IIRC, the Midnight Lutes tend to get better with some maturity, and Sonneteer looks quite a bit like his sire.
I wonder if he'll be brought back in the Arkansas Derby?
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Matt Converse » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:50 am

tcw wrote:Malagacy's , his conditioner has one winner in what, ~45 KD entrants?


Just curious, how many of the 45 were supposed to win?
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Matt Converse » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:52 am

Tessablue wrote:American Anthem didn't break and threw in the towel almost immediately. Pace ended up a bit softer than expected, Malagacy got a nice trip and took it, as a first impression I'm not terribly interested in any of these going forward but we'll see.


It looks like you have a good eye since the winner got an 89 Beyer.
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Re: The Rebel

Postby tcw » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:36 am

Matt Converse wrote:
tcw wrote:Malagacy's , his conditioner has one winner in what, ~45 KD entrants?


Just curious, how many of the 45 were supposed to win?


Many of his horses have not only not won, but not even hit the board, In fact, of those 45 past entrants, 32 of them finished 9th or worse in the KD, which translates to 71% (that's nearly 3/4ths of his entrants). Take Carpe Diem for instance, who went off as the 3rd favorite in the 2015 Derby and finished 10th. Gemologist is another who went off as the 3rd favorite in 2012 and finished 16th. Perhaps they weren't the favorites, but they were still highly regarded and the record speaks for itself. Below is a related article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/spo ... 2a3dc62f7e
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Matt Converse » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:52 am

I looked over that list of horses for my answer, but I'm still not sure. We're any of those horses actually supposed to win?
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Izvestia » Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:48 am

Without having a list in front of me, I'd take a guess and assume many of them were bet down and were highly regarded - not necessarily the favourite, but definitely hyped.
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Admin » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:05 pm

Rarely does a horse's build strike me as resolutely as this winner did while watching the race. He sure looks like a horse who'll never get 1 1/4.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Starine » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:09 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:With his build, he looks like a horse who probably wasn't precocious. IIRC, the Midnight Lutes tend to get better with some maturity, and Sonneteer looks quite a bit like his sire.
I wonder if he'll be brought back in the Arkansas Derby?


I don't have DRF+ anymore so I can't read the entire article, but according to them it sounds like Desormeaux is keeping it on the table for now.
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Re: The Rebel

Postby Tessablue » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:08 pm

Regarding Pletcher, his record in the Derby isn't quite as bad as it looks because he has been asked to run a lot of no-hopers. Of the 45 horses he has run in the Derby, 22 went off at odds of more than 20-1 and his median odds have been 19.8-1. He has never started a favorite or a horse lower than 5-1 (believe it or not, his lowest-priced horse was Dunkirk), and his record among horses who started at less than 10-1 is 12-1-0-3, with the caveat that two of those horses were an entry. However, this is all complicated a bit by the fact that a lot of his horses are hyped leading up to the Derby but end up curiously dead on the board on race day (examples: Verrazano, Carpe Diem, Destin). Overall, I would say that although his record is not as bad as it is often made out to be, he is still a neutral factor at best when it comes to Derby horses.

Malagacy certainly deserves props for conquering his first route attempt, but like others have said, it's very difficult to imagine him moving forward at 10f.
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Re: The Rebel

Postby stark » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:16 pm

Tessablue wrote:Regarding Pletcher, his record in the Derby isn't quite as bad as it looks because he has been asked to run a lot of no-hopers.


Really?
Did it go something like this....

Pletcher: Well, we're not coming up to the Derby like I had hoped.
Owner: Do you think we have any shot at all?
Pletcher: Quite honestly, nope, none at all.
Owner: Well that's just great, enter him anyway.
Pletcher: Okie dokie!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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