Florida Derby

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Treve
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:08 pm

I expected Gunnevera's win streak to get snapped here but I thought it would be a lot closer.
Congrats to Always Dreaming and connections.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Treve wrote:I expected Gunnevera's win streak to get snapped here but I thought it would be a lot closer.
Congrats to Always Dreaming and connections.
It's not easy to close at GP.

That said, that was not encouraging.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Horsebagger
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:09 pm

Tessablue wrote:Always Dreaming won easy, I believe he checked early but he got a nice trip from there.

Perfectly happy with that effort from Gunnevera, should get better odds on him now.
Post race impressions......

Bodemeister is a nice stallion
Wake me when older horses are running again.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:10 pm

Miss Woodford wrote:I feel like we call the 3yo crop terrible every year. It's because we look back at previous years and only remember the few great horses and not the bad ones who have *always* greatly outnumbered them.
At this point it's as much a Derby tradition as mint juleps!

I get that there really aren't any superstars this year, at least not yet, but it's incredibly difficult to judge the quality of crops before the year is up. I'd argue that 2013 was one of the best Derby fields in recent years (Orb, Will Take Charge, Palace Malice, Oxbow, Goldencents, Verrazano), but it certainly was not considered as much at the time. In any event, I still love handicapping the race!

Apparently Gunnevera hit the rail going into the first turn? Did anybody see that? He closed quite nicely into a slowish pace after being given far too much to do (and taking a weird left turn directly out of the gate), so I'm happy anyways, but that would add a bit of an extra dimension.
Last edited by Tessablue on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:11 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Bodemeister is a nice stallion
You called that one.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:11 pm

This crop is pretty bad. I'm not really sure how anyone could say otherwise.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Treve
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:14 pm

I don't find this crop that bad. But maybe I'm comparing to same time last year, which was truly bad. Which... just because it is better than that one doesn't make it 'good', I guess.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:15 pm

Treve wrote:I don't find this crop that bad. But maybe I'm comparing to same time last year, which was truly bad. Which... just because it is better than that one doesn't make it 'good', I guess.
They just petered out as the year went on. At least there was form last year.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:16 pm

I think the nadir of recent Derbies has to be 2010. We've got a ways to go before we hit that low point!
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:21 pm

Tessablue wrote:I think the nadir of recent Derbies has to be 2010. We've got a ways to go before we hit that low point!
Strong use of nadir, but Super Saver was the most predictable winner of the Derby ever. IMO anyway.

Regardless of whether or not X year is worse it doesn't mean this year has anything stellar running in it. Classic Empire is too busy with Tepin and the rest of the Casse barn going sour. The good Romans horse is donezo.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:23 pm

Before the race, Caton Bredar said that Gunnevera looked like he'd lost weight. I thought he looked flat and a little too calm in the post parade. That was a nice effort he made to get up for third, but I hope he gets a lot of rest and food before the first Saturday in May.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:28 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tessablue wrote:I think the nadir of recent Derbies has to be 2010. We've got a ways to go before we hit that low point!
Strong use of nadir, but Super Saver was the most predictable winner of the Derby ever. IMO anyway.

Regardless of whether or not X year is worse it doesn't mean this year has anything stellar running in it. Classic Empire is too busy with Tepin and the rest of the Casse barn going sour. The good Romans horse is donezo.
I don't disagree, Super Saver was a great bet that year... but that does say a lot about just how dire that field was.

I'm not excited about anyone besides Gunnevera and I think the west coast 3yos look awful this year (and I agree that Classic Empire is toast), but I do like to wait until the final preps because you never know when a horse will come out of nowhere to shake things up. But I'm always optimistic when it comes to the Derby for some reason.
luvsgeldings
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:32 pm

impressed with the winner - he looked good - and kept going too - nice gallop out.
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Treve
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:38 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:I don't find this crop that bad. But maybe I'm comparing to same time last year, which was truly bad. Which... just because it is better than that one doesn't make it 'good', I guess.
They just petered out as the year went on. At least there was form last year.
Yeah but they were all pretty slow. This crop hit higher speed figures as juveniles than the previous one and even as 3yos they've already shown they're faster, so I'd say they're more talented, but inconsistent.
The others had less talent, more consistency and hit their ceiling really fast. It'll certainly be interesting to see if these ones keep progressing even after classics season.
I still think CE is the most talented of them... if he can keep his damn head on straight and overcome his bad luck/Casse Curse/Tepin's hormones. (I know, I know. Not holding my breath. Though his last two works have been apparently stellar and he tentatively seems to be back on track. I don't know why Casse was hellbent on keeping him in Florida in the first place... but hey from a story pov I'm liking the suspense I guess :lol: ? )
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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ThreeMustangs
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Location: Florida

Sat Apr 01, 2017 8:27 pm

Final time was 1:47.47. Not bad, but was the track souped up today?
middleground
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 8:51 pm

The winner certainly finished up well; he's not the worst of the prep winners we've seen this year.
Apollo
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:20 pm

* One image stood out to me beyond any other after attending the race today: The Gunnevera connections were gathered outside the winner's circle during the race, as if the outcome were a mere formality. Primarily young females dressed to the nines. I recognized some of them from the Fountain of Youth fiesta but others apparently got word of the opportunity to celebrate and be publicly seen. No question the numbers would have been even greater this time, and I didn't think that was possible. No way the winner's circle could have accommodated everyone in the Gunnevera camp.

When the race ended those females paused only briefly and then stormed to the north and toward the valet parking lot, with expressions that were beyond priceless. I don't know the lingo in this era. Hissy fit and tantrum would have described it in my era. They were barging through foot traffic with elbows and without concern. Hilarious. Several of us were talking about it as it happened, and many others joined the conversation when I brought it up later. They had seen glimpses from afar

* In Miami everyone loves sports as long as you're a winner. The Hispanics came to Gulfstream today fully expecting their standard bearer to prevail. There was even a high decibel Spanish language broadcast of every race from a platform in a prime area not far from the rail and only feet from where the horses enter the track from the paddock area. I normally stand in that area during the races but today I had to relocate, or risk the health of my ear drums.

* On public days the favorites are always lower than typical, and then it carries over to the feature if many of those favorites have succeeded in the earlier races. That's what happened today. Why detour if you've been cashing tickets? The first flash on Gunnevera was 1-5. He did look the best in the walking ring. Very, very composed. There were comments from people near me that Gunnevera was actually looking at people in the stands, looking them in the eye. I can see where it's described as overly relaxed right now but at the time it looked like a positive.

Still, I wasn't convinced he was going to win. This is the old flip flop of going from barely noticed third choice to suddenly an overwhelming favorite based on one race. That's not going back to the beginning. That's an obsession with now. I kept thinking about Kennedy's comment that Gunnevera closes but he really doesn't close very fast.

* I wasn't sure how good Always Dreaming is. I'm still not sure. I rooted for him due to his style, his sire, and the trainer. Bodemeister got a bad rap, IMO. Not everywhere but certainly here. He was labeled a bet against horse even though barely anyone was finishing ahead of him. That doesn't fit the knock. A bet against horse should allow tickets to be cashed from all angles.

* Deep closers are suckers, as I've posted countless times. I still can't believe Zenyatta nearly finished her career unblemished with that style. It's one of the handful of most remarkable sporting accomplishments in my lifetime. Today another closer ceded too much ground in high company. Yawn. Torn tickets and no chance. It will happen again somewhere tomorrow. It still makes me chuckle every time those dream races are proposed, with some horse asserted to rally for the win from near the back of the pack. The scary aspect is people actually believe it.

* Racing is a better sport when the high profile trainers are in spotlight. That's why we needed a Pletcher win today. He shuffled down from the grandstand simultaneous to the sulking from the Gunnevera ladies. Pletcher looks very tall only in comparison to the typical horse racing clientele. He was inches from me while in the mob toward that winner's circle. I've got a good 4 inches on him.

* I really appreciated the change of weather about an hour before the race. It went from muggy and overbearing to downright comfortable.

* The track was pampered and no doubt fast. How can they make a meaningful track variant when 5 of the 6 previous races before the Florida Derby were on the turf? It was driving me nuts, and toward sheer boredom. I despise turf. Meanwhile I watched them rake and manicure that main track all afternoon even when nothing was happening on it, other than horses crossing toward the turf.
firehorse
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:32 pm

Apollo wrote:* One image stood out to me beyond any other after attending the race today: The Gunnevera connections were gathered outside the winner's circle during the race, as if the outcome were a mere formality. Primarily young females dressed to the nines. Yes, I walked through these ladies.

* In Miami everyone loves sports as long as you're a winner. Yup
Had a great day with friends, think Gunnevera better than he showed, looked like a rabbit hopping to rail, still like him despite obnoxious fans, although was rooting for Three Rules. The winner looked good though, had never seen him run before.
Horsebagger
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Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:29 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:
Bodemeister is a nice stallion
You called that one.
Actually, lots of people (other than Rick) saw him as a strong stallion prospect.
Admin
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Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:41 am

Perhaps that Empire Maker thing?
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
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