Florida Derby

Old Bones
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:07 pm

Battalion Runner is out per DRF Welsch. Galloped this morning.
Horsebagger
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:50 pm

Who's betting an odds on favorite from that post? I'm taking a shot with the rail horse and Dale's horse to post the upset.

And I am developing zero interest in this year's respective 3yo crops.

When does Arrogate run again??
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:53 pm

Horsebagger wrote: And I am developing zero interest in this year's respective 3yo crops.
I have an event on the day of the Derby and I think for the first time in my life I'm not even viewing it as a big deal.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:53 pm

I love Gunnevera and this field is largely terrible, but his odds are bizarrely low. It feels like every TC prep has had an odds-on favorite this year, pretty weird.
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Treve
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:58 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Who's betting an odds on favorite from that post? I'm taking a shot with the rail horse and Dale's horse to post the upset.

And I am developing zero interest in this year's respective 3yo crops.

When does Arrogate run again??
He's looking foamy on his neck and between his legs. Dunno if that's normal for him, if it's really humid or if he's washy.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:04 pm

Always Dreaming won easy, I believe he checked early but he got a nice trip from there.

Perfectly happy with that effort from Gunnevera, should get better odds on him now.
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sweettalk
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:05 pm

i stand by my earlier statement that this years 3 yr old colts are meh. i got flak for it, but i'm just more convinced the more they run. shorten three rules up, tho, i'll say that. i think he'd be a nice sprinter.
Last edited by sweettalk on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Get out to Lenny’s for their big grand opening sale. Find eight government secrets and get a free kidnapping and personality reassignment so that you’ll forget you found them!
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Miss Woodford
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:05 pm

I feel like we call the 3yo crop terrible every year. It's because we look back at previous years and only remember the few great horses and not the bad ones who have *always* greatly outnumbered them.
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sweettalk
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:06 pm

2007 was a pretty cool year.
Get out to Lenny’s for their big grand opening sale. Find eight government secrets and get a free kidnapping and personality reassignment so that you’ll forget you found them!
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:07 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Perfectly happy with that effort from Gunnevera, should get better odds on him now.
This crop is so terrible that I think your better odds might not be all that great.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Treve
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:08 pm

I expected Gunnevera's win streak to get snapped here but I thought it would be a lot closer.
Congrats to Always Dreaming and connections.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Treve wrote:I expected Gunnevera's win streak to get snapped here but I thought it would be a lot closer.
Congrats to Always Dreaming and connections.
It's not easy to close at GP.

That said, that was not encouraging.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Horsebagger
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:09 pm

Tessablue wrote:Always Dreaming won easy, I believe he checked early but he got a nice trip from there.

Perfectly happy with that effort from Gunnevera, should get better odds on him now.
Post race impressions......

Bodemeister is a nice stallion
Wake me when older horses are running again.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:10 pm

Miss Woodford wrote:I feel like we call the 3yo crop terrible every year. It's because we look back at previous years and only remember the few great horses and not the bad ones who have *always* greatly outnumbered them.
At this point it's as much a Derby tradition as mint juleps!

I get that there really aren't any superstars this year, at least not yet, but it's incredibly difficult to judge the quality of crops before the year is up. I'd argue that 2013 was one of the best Derby fields in recent years (Orb, Will Take Charge, Palace Malice, Oxbow, Goldencents, Verrazano), but it certainly was not considered as much at the time. In any event, I still love handicapping the race!

Apparently Gunnevera hit the rail going into the first turn? Did anybody see that? He closed quite nicely into a slowish pace after being given far too much to do (and taking a weird left turn directly out of the gate), so I'm happy anyways, but that would add a bit of an extra dimension.
Last edited by Tessablue on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:11 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Bodemeister is a nice stallion
You called that one.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:11 pm

This crop is pretty bad. I'm not really sure how anyone could say otherwise.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Treve
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:14 pm

I don't find this crop that bad. But maybe I'm comparing to same time last year, which was truly bad. Which... just because it is better than that one doesn't make it 'good', I guess.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Somnambulist
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:15 pm

Treve wrote:I don't find this crop that bad. But maybe I'm comparing to same time last year, which was truly bad. Which... just because it is better than that one doesn't make it 'good', I guess.
They just petered out as the year went on. At least there was form last year.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:16 pm

I think the nadir of recent Derbies has to be 2010. We've got a ways to go before we hit that low point!
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:21 pm

Tessablue wrote:I think the nadir of recent Derbies has to be 2010. We've got a ways to go before we hit that low point!
Strong use of nadir, but Super Saver was the most predictable winner of the Derby ever. IMO anyway.

Regardless of whether or not X year is worse it doesn't mean this year has anything stellar running in it. Classic Empire is too busy with Tepin and the rest of the Casse barn going sour. The good Romans horse is donezo.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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