Florida Derby

tcw
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Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:38 pm

I wouldn't get too excited about One Liner or Battalion Runner. Pletcher is passing WAY too many races with seemingly "healthy" horses.
So what's new?
peeptoad
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Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:48 am

Even though he's not being pointed to the Derby I like Three Rules a bit here. Gunnevera is clearly the horse to beat and he may very well win. His price will be low and the post draw is a detriment. He also doesn't need to win this, but just produce a good closing run to head to KY as one of the top contenders for the Roses. If Three Rules can reign it in a bit early, but still make the lead from the outside I think he's got a good chance to wire them. There is other speed in here, but he ran a much faster early pace in the FOY than most of the other speed types in here ever have. The one exception is the rail horse. I do also kind of like State of Honor a little though I think he may wilt late. Might just box those 3.
PJMIII
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Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:24 am

Sano's Faith in Gunnevera Unwavering for Florida Derby

Peacock Racing Stables' Gunnevera has often found the odds against him.

As a foal, the big chestnut was orphaned 10 days after birth. As a yearling, he sold at the 2015 Keeneland September yearling sale for a mere $16,000. At first asking and in his second start, he tangled with precocious rival Three Rules, who went on to dominate the Florida Sire Series as part of five straight wins. And for two of his three graded stakes scores—the 2016 Saratoga Special (G2) and this year's Xpressbet Fountain of Youth (G2)—he was sent off as the third choice, not the post time favorite.


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... rida-derby
MySaladDays
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Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:36 am

impressive edge, gunnevera, and State of Honor for me. I haven't looked at PPs yet though :lol:
Tessablue
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Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:08 pm

Crap draw for Gunnevera but he wants to drop back anyways. Love the horse and he's my Derby pick pretty much no matter what happens tomorrow, but I'm not sure what to expect from him- don't think he'll get a ton of pace here and he's in the Derby anyways, so I doubt he's cranked. Still a hard-trier who should make a run under all circumstances.

Not much else in this field but I wouldn't be surprised if Always Dreaming picked up a lot of money and ends up near-favored. I guess he could get a decent trip if Three Rules doesn't break, but that last race was too slow and bizarre for me to evaluate.
middleground
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Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:20 pm

Gunnevera is the class on paper with no one else close, IMO. I'm not impressed with anyone else in the field, but for value, I'm looking at Impressive Edge on the assumption that he just might be improving.
Matt Converse
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:33 am

11--Gunnevera--I don't see anyone beating him here.
9--Battalion Runner--Looks like the only possible threat.
Maybe a minor award: 4--Always Dreaming 1--State of Honor
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Raven
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:37 am

Gunnevera and State of Honor
The rest, nowhere!
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
stark
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 10:27 am

Rumor Control.........Gunnevera might scratch?????
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Raven
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:06 am

stark wrote:Rumor Control.........Gunnevera might scratch?????
Reason why?
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
Old Bones
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:07 pm

Battalion Runner is out per DRF Welsch. Galloped this morning.
Horsebagger
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:50 pm

Who's betting an odds on favorite from that post? I'm taking a shot with the rail horse and Dale's horse to post the upset.

And I am developing zero interest in this year's respective 3yo crops.

When does Arrogate run again??
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:53 pm

Horsebagger wrote: And I am developing zero interest in this year's respective 3yo crops.
I have an event on the day of the Derby and I think for the first time in my life I'm not even viewing it as a big deal.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:53 pm

I love Gunnevera and this field is largely terrible, but his odds are bizarrely low. It feels like every TC prep has had an odds-on favorite this year, pretty weird.
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Treve
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:58 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Who's betting an odds on favorite from that post? I'm taking a shot with the rail horse and Dale's horse to post the upset.

And I am developing zero interest in this year's respective 3yo crops.

When does Arrogate run again??
He's looking foamy on his neck and between his legs. Dunno if that's normal for him, if it's really humid or if he's washy.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:04 pm

Always Dreaming won easy, I believe he checked early but he got a nice trip from there.

Perfectly happy with that effort from Gunnevera, should get better odds on him now.
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sweettalk
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:05 pm

i stand by my earlier statement that this years 3 yr old colts are meh. i got flak for it, but i'm just more convinced the more they run. shorten three rules up, tho, i'll say that. i think he'd be a nice sprinter.
Last edited by sweettalk on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Get out to Lenny’s for their big grand opening sale. Find eight government secrets and get a free kidnapping and personality reassignment so that you’ll forget you found them!
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Miss Woodford
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:05 pm

I feel like we call the 3yo crop terrible every year. It's because we look back at previous years and only remember the few great horses and not the bad ones who have *always* greatly outnumbered them.
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sweettalk
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:06 pm

2007 was a pretty cool year.
Get out to Lenny’s for their big grand opening sale. Find eight government secrets and get a free kidnapping and personality reassignment so that you’ll forget you found them!
Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:07 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Perfectly happy with that effort from Gunnevera, should get better odds on him now.
This crop is so terrible that I think your better odds might not be all that great.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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