Florida Derby

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Squeaky
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Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:00 pm

Who is pointing to this race? Battalion Runner...
victory
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Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:45 am

My list of probable/possibles:
Always Dreaming?
Batallion Runner
Capt. Grider
El Areeb?
Gunnevera
Irish War Cry
Mo Town?
One Liner?
Three Rules
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Starine
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Location: South Carolina

Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:45 pm

Per his connections: El Areeb is most likely for the Wood Memorial; with the Bluegrass Stakes being the backup plan.
Apollo
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Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:18 pm

As I suspected and posted, the 4 week gap between Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby will include vastly altered weather. We've actually had a nice March by recent standards but it's supposed to climb to 88 degrees on Saturday.

But at least right now the wind that impacted the Fountain of Youth day will be absent. Current estimates are 12 mph.
firehorse
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:00 pm

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:19 pm

$1 million Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1), 1 1/8 miles, dirt
Post, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Odds

1. State of Honor, Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 8-1
2. Talk Logistics, Eddie Plesa Jr., Joe Bravo, 30-1
3. Charlie the Greek, Mikhail Yanakov, Leonel Reyes, 50-1
4. Always Dreaming, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 4-1
5. Quinentos, Enrique A. Sanchez, Carlos Montalvo, 50-1
6. Coleman Rocky, Gustavo Delgado, Jose Ortiz, 30-1
7. Unbridled Holiday, Patrick Biancone, Nik Juarez, 30-1
8. Impressive Edge, Dale Romans, Corey Lanerie, 12-1
9. Battalion Runner, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 3-1
10. Three Rules, Jose Pinchin, Luis Saez, 8-1
11. Gunnevera, Antonio Sano, Javier Castellano, 9-5
Kennedy
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Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:22 pm

Word was that Battalion Runner was going to the SA Derby. Perhaps he still is with johhny V being named on two pletchers. With the post towards the outside as well I'm not sure there is a strong reason for him to stay in this field.
blamethewinner
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Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:46 pm

Kennedy wrote:Word was that Battalion Runner was going to the SA Derby. Perhaps he still is with johhny V being named on two pletchers. With the post towards the outside as well I'm not sure there is a strong reason for him to stay in this field.
He's entered as insurance should Always Dreaming have any issues that keep him from running. He's going to either the Wood or Ark Derby.

I wouldn't get too excited about One Liner or Battalion Runner. Pletcher is passing WAY too many races with seemingly "healthy" horses.
Kennedy
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Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:10 pm

blamethewinner wrote:
Kennedy wrote:Word was that Battalion Runner was going to the SA Derby. Perhaps he still is with johhny V being named on two pletchers. With the post towards the outside as well I'm not sure there is a strong reason for him to stay in this field.
He's entered as insurance should Always Dreaming have any issues that keep him from running. He's going to either the Wood or Ark Derby.

I wouldn't get too excited about One Liner or Battalion Runner. Pletcher is passing WAY too many races with seemingly "healthy" horses.
I am surprised that One Liner has made it back out since the Southwest. For me I think he's one I'd likely try to oppose in his next prep while still retaining the hope that he could be a decent Derby horse.

Battalion Runner I'd back in his next prep but I'm less high on his chances as a Derby runner. Pletcher is pretty good in prep races but has often done better in the Derby with horses that have struggled more in preps.
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:22 pm

We've actually had a nice March by recent standards but it's supposed to climb to 88 degrees on Saturday.

Caton Bredar said that it's going to be in the 90's at Gulfstream for the Florida Derby. I would be hesitant to use any horse shipping in who hadn't acclimated to the muggy Florida heat.
From Bloodhorse:
While 11 entered the 1 1/8-mile test, Florida's final prep for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), only 10 are expected to run. Always Dreaming and Battalion Runner both passed the entry box for trainer Todd Pletcher, who is only expected to start Always Dreaming.
Read more; http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... rida-derby
firehorse
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Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:55 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:We've actually had a nice March by recent standards but it's supposed to climb to 88 degrees on Saturday.

Caton Bredar said that it's going to be in the 90's at Gulfstream for the Florida Derby. I would be hesitant to use any horse shipping in who hadn't acclimated to the muggy Florida heat.
From Bloodhorse:
While 11 entered the 1 1/8-mile test, Florida's final prep for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), only 10 are expected to run. Always Dreaming and Battalion Runner both passed the entry box for trainer Todd Pletcher, who is only expected to start Always Dreaming.
Read more; http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... rida-derby
I would have agreed in the past but then I saw what Arrogate and Nyquist did and think maybe it's not such a disadvantage to a late shipper with talent - the race doesn't go off til 6:40 so it will probably be quite nice by then.
tcw
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Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:38 pm

I wouldn't get too excited about One Liner or Battalion Runner. Pletcher is passing WAY too many races with seemingly "healthy" horses.
So what's new?
peeptoad
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Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:48 am

Even though he's not being pointed to the Derby I like Three Rules a bit here. Gunnevera is clearly the horse to beat and he may very well win. His price will be low and the post draw is a detriment. He also doesn't need to win this, but just produce a good closing run to head to KY as one of the top contenders for the Roses. If Three Rules can reign it in a bit early, but still make the lead from the outside I think he's got a good chance to wire them. There is other speed in here, but he ran a much faster early pace in the FOY than most of the other speed types in here ever have. The one exception is the rail horse. I do also kind of like State of Honor a little though I think he may wilt late. Might just box those 3.
PJMIII
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Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:24 am

Sano's Faith in Gunnevera Unwavering for Florida Derby

Peacock Racing Stables' Gunnevera has often found the odds against him.

As a foal, the big chestnut was orphaned 10 days after birth. As a yearling, he sold at the 2015 Keeneland September yearling sale for a mere $16,000. At first asking and in his second start, he tangled with precocious rival Three Rules, who went on to dominate the Florida Sire Series as part of five straight wins. And for two of his three graded stakes scores—the 2016 Saratoga Special (G2) and this year's Xpressbet Fountain of Youth (G2)—he was sent off as the third choice, not the post time favorite.


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... rida-derby
MySaladDays
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Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:36 am

impressive edge, gunnevera, and State of Honor for me. I haven't looked at PPs yet though :lol:
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:08 pm

Crap draw for Gunnevera but he wants to drop back anyways. Love the horse and he's my Derby pick pretty much no matter what happens tomorrow, but I'm not sure what to expect from him- don't think he'll get a ton of pace here and he's in the Derby anyways, so I doubt he's cranked. Still a hard-trier who should make a run under all circumstances.

Not much else in this field but I wouldn't be surprised if Always Dreaming picked up a lot of money and ends up near-favored. I guess he could get a decent trip if Three Rules doesn't break, but that last race was too slow and bizarre for me to evaluate.
middleground
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Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:20 pm

Gunnevera is the class on paper with no one else close, IMO. I'm not impressed with anyone else in the field, but for value, I'm looking at Impressive Edge on the assumption that he just might be improving.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:33 am

11--Gunnevera--I don't see anyone beating him here.
9--Battalion Runner--Looks like the only possible threat.
Maybe a minor award: 4--Always Dreaming 1--State of Honor
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Raven
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:37 am

Gunnevera and State of Honor
The rest, nowhere!
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
stark
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 10:27 am

Rumor Control.........Gunnevera might scratch?????
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Raven
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Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:06 am

stark wrote:Rumor Control.........Gunnevera might scratch?????
Reason why?
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
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