Derby Lists 2017

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Somnambulist » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:00 pm

If he's conceding ground late in the Ark Derby why would he be dangerous in the Preakness? Unless it's dangerous to not win!

I only hope they nominate him so we get the Conquest memes.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Somnambulist » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:02 pm

All these horses are untrustworthy.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:06 pm

Tessablue wrote:I'm happy to hear that you agree, I felt kind of crazy putting him up there! I'm uncertain where he sits in terms of likely winners because I'm having a lot of trouble evaluating Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, but he's certainly up there for me. I think I read that we'll find out if he's running tomorrow. Would love to see him run but can't blame the connections if they pass, he's already a great success story- I wonder how on earth a horse with his pedigree went for only 8.5k?

Also, a potentially important new development- the Sunland Derby has been revised to a 97, up from a 93. This puts Hence right up there in terms of final Derby preps.

I don't have a Derby list but I have a loose mental ranking and I'm not sure exactly where Hence fits in that yet. I need to watch his last race and the previous one again. I don't necessarily compare horses directly to each other, but it certainly can't hurt that the horse he beat came back and ran well.

Treve wrote:
I agree with both of you. I don't love him for the Derby but he's an impressive horse. I am a bit chilly about placing him up high because he was passed late both times and especially in the Ark Derby, I don't like that it happened after he slowed the pace down and controlled it. I don't think he would win the KY Derby, but he'd be an interesting addition to the mix. He's on my Derby list anyway. I do think he'd be a dangerous horse in the Preakness, however.

Yeah, I'm cautious with my mental ranking of him. He does seem far less likely to win outright vs horses like CE, War Cry, et al, but he's improving steadily at the right time, which the connections should feel good about if they choose to go to the Derby with him.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Treve » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:09 pm

Somnambulist wrote:If he's conceding ground late in the Ark Derby why would he be dangerous in the Preakness? Unless it's dangerous to not win!

I only hope they nominate him so we get the Conquest memes.


Not sure there will be any more Conquest memes since I thought he was part of the conquest dispersal? But perhaps some anonymous twitter hero can carry on the legacy.

Should have clarified that I think he'll be dangerous in the Preakness if he bypasses the Derby. I think he can stretch out to 9.5 provided he's ridden intelligently and if he's capable of sitting back a little or press instead of trying to set the pace. He may still have the altitude training effect going for him by that point, and he will have less horses to worry about closing late. (Well unless 10 closers enter the Preakness but given the amount of late closers in the Arkansas Derby he did pretty well to hang on for second).
I could be wrong, though.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby ElPrado2 » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:25 pm

I'm a happy camper on the Hence line. I just stole him in my fantasy stable auction. The Sunland Derby caught my eye. Now he's tossing bullet works around at Churchill. He likes the track.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Tessablue » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:28 pm

I normally don't like horses who lose ground or get passed late like he did, but I'm willing to forgive him because 1) he was used so hard early, only to get caught wide and hung out in front of a brutally fast pace and 2) he only got passed late because he was up against the 2yo champion/ potentially the best horse in the crop (and on the rewatch, he was hooked with Malagacy at probably never saw CE coming). We've had a few Derbys in recent years which projected to have a fast pace but instead were fairly moderate. If that happens and he ends up with a good trip, I think he could really surprise people at what would be an excellent price. He doesn't have any quit in him and that's a good feature for a front-end Derby horse.

Interested to hear your thoughts on Hence, peep. I loved the sustained run he made in the Sunland Derby, but his race prior is a mystery and I don't know that Asmussen has ever offered an explanation for it.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby ElPrado2 » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:37 pm

From what I remember, Hence has already raced and won at CD.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Treve » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:45 pm

I will give him that he's a consistent trier, and provided he has a good trip and either controls the pace or can relax in a stalking position, he should at least make some noise in the exotics if he goes to the Derby. I also just realised that Conquest Mo Money is facing the curse of Apollo too, which superstitious aspects aside even if you decide to overlook the plausible explanations for the curse, is a lot of history to challenge. Then again it has been such a weird year, this could be one where many trends are bucked.

Hence has raced at CD but lost. Not badly - he placed 2nd and per the chart: duelled early, shifted into the three path in the turn, continued to duel in the stretch and gave in late. He did win over the Oaklawn surface though.
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Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Tessablue » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:57 pm

I just watched that CD race and it was pretty good for a horse who turned into a closer. His maiden win was wild though- had a clear lead with an eighth to go but shied and ducked in, almost bounced off the rail and lost all momentum, then re-rallied in the final sixteenth. Looks like he was a horse who needed quite a few races to mature.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Kennedy » Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:01 pm

Final Top 10

1. McCraken (1)
2. Gunnevera (2)
3. Classic Empire (new)
4. Tapwrit (3)
5. Irish War Cry (4)
6. Hence (10)
7. Girvin (5)
8. Always Dreaming (new)
9. Conquest Mo Money (new)
10. J Boys Echo (9)

Dropped: Petrov (6), Malagacy (7), Untrapped (8)

So the field is all but set and among my top 5 it feels like I’ve come full circle after including both Classic Empire and Irish War Cry in my original top 5 last December and dropping them both after some bad starts and then finally bringing them back as they won final major preps.

I think it’s fair to say that the Derby trail seems to have featured a lot of ordinary horses and this collection of ordinary horses have produced a series of results that may have been more predictable than dependable. I only say they’re predictable in the sense that you could count on really any member of the established class running poorly and just about anyone had a chance to get back on terms because no one stepped up and distanced themselves from the rest.

It’s for that reason that I’ve done a 180 on Always Dreaming after initially ignoring him from my top 10. I still don’t love his chances but is he among the 10 most likely winners? Of course he is.

The Arkansas Derby was another typical prep in that I’d say the race that the winner ran was good but it was also the type of race that many other horses can run and perhaps would have run if you redid the Ark Derby a few times.

I expect the Derby to be much the same in that while the winner may run really well in order to win the Derby it won’t necessarily make them a superior horse to the rest of the crop. I think this is a groupd that will take turns running well and because of that there are going to be a lot of Derby entrants with really defensible chances.

I think the horse who has maybe done the most without doing anything is Hence. The Sunland Derby looks pretty live in retrospect and I think you’ll see a good amount of wise guy support for this horse. After all he was way better than Conquest Mo Money and Irap. Now he gets the upgraded BSF and he had solid closing fractions. He’ll be pretty live on the board I’d suspect. My worry with him though is really just whether or not he’s grown up enough. The eye test should give us some bearing but I think I’ll like him less the more popular he becomes unless we really see him fill out and muscle up.

I’d say any of my top 10 have a winners chance but I definitely prefer McCraken. In a year of bounce backs it’s his turn next. I also see a healthy amount of speed in the race. Everything should setup perfectly for him and I think he’s handier than Gunnevera.
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