Derby Lists 2017

PostTimeMike
Posts: 130
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:18 pm
Location: Big Easy

Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:21 pm

Copied this from last year's pre-Derby Racing Forum. Thought this would be a good vehicle to display my picks. I won't be sponsoring a contest this year. Will be out of town all next week for a big industry trade show. The company I am working for will have a booth. We're considering this event our "stepping out" party!!

Feel free to use this form to make your lists. Your entry will be officially "unofficial" and you can self score if you so chose.

The "Road to the Roses" has held moderate interest for me this year. I've followed the preps, but haven't applied the usual handicapping reviews and in depth analysis as previous years.

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":
1. Select 10 entrants (+ 2 alternates). Use the entrants name and post position number. Note: Name takes precedent over number (if typo exists). Listing both correctly assists with scoring efforts!
2. Rank the entrants in order you predict them to finish (including alternates).
3. Each entrant that finishes in the Top Ten will receive 10 points.
4. Extra points: 1st = 100 / 2nd = 50 / 3rd - 40 / 4th = 30 / 5th = 20.
5. Entrants receive the point total of the selected position (1st through 5th) if the entrant finishes in that position or higher. Ex. The selected position is 5th and the entrant finishes in 3rd. The entrant receives 20 points (5th place value).
6. Total possible points is 340.
7. In the event of a scratch, all entrants move up to fill the slot and the 1st alternate moves into the #10 position.
8. In the event of a tie, the finishing positions of the remaining selections (6th - 10th) and alternates (if needed) will be evaluated.
9. Ultimate tiebreaker - The "Win" bet payout for the Champion!
10. Final selections must be made before 12:00 (EDT) / 11:00 AM (CDT) / 10:00 AM MDT) / 9:00 AM (PDT) on Derby Day.
11. Do not edit your "official" post once the deadline is reached. Until then, you have free "rein" to post / edit / or just set up your entry. You can copy and paste the template below:

******************************************************************************************************************************
2017 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {?} [Irish War Cry] Curlin gets his Derby winner!!!
2) {?} [Girvin] Always pull for the Louisiana Derby Champion!!
3) {?} [Gunnevera] Would be a big "Jackpot" winner!!
4) {?} [Practical Joke] Almost as good a Derby name as Foolish Pleasure!!
5) {?} [J Boys Echo] Will this be Animal Kingdom Part Two for Robbie?

6) {?} [Irap] Will try to War Emblem the field!!
7) {?} [Thunder Snow (IRE)] Desert raider!!
8) {?} [Classic Empire] Needed the "Spa Treatment" to make the field!!
9) {?} [Always Dreaming] Best of the "Todd Squad"!!
10) {?} [Gormley] So-So season in SoCal after Mastery's departure!

Alt. 1 {?} [McCraken] Too many "Kingpin" references to mention!!
Alt. 2 {?} [Hence] Why not??

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $24.60

So there's my list. More sentimental than scientific selections!! Let's hope for an exciting and safe Derby this year!! Good luck and good racing!!
Last edited by PostTimeMike on Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Big Ten
Posts: 664
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:18 pm

Hundred Years' War (1917-2017)

I was WRONG with Irish War Cry. He doesn't have the stripe like Secretariat. It is more of a star like Easy Goer's. Huge EG fanboy here, so I love IWC's good looks. Cry spitting image of the Goer!

Big Red = Man o' War
Big Red II = Phar Lap (truly BIG)
Big Red III = Secretariat
Big Red IV = Easy Goer
Big Red V = Irish War Cry?

Nah, there is only one Big Red to me like there is only one Sugar Ray in boxing. Man o' War deserves that nickname although horses like Phar Lap, Forego, and Zenyatta do dwarf MoW in height.

I didn't like Dialed In when he raced, so apologies to Gunnevera. But I did like Unbridled's Song. I just couldn't appreciate him enough because of Ernie Paragallo and didn't like to pick favorites. Unbridled's Song had immense potential that was never tapped into until Arrogate came along to reach that ceiling or break it.

Battalion Runner (b. 2014), son of Unbridled's Song from a Tapit mare. Battalion Runner being the last crop from Unbridled's Song. The only Pletcher horse I like in the field thanks to his sire, his 2nd to IWC in the Wood, and his huge odds. We had a "Runner" finish 3rd last year.

I hope Always Dreaming runs fast early and then his stablemate BR and IWC pounces on him. I want to see Always Dreaming get caught like his sire Bodemeister did from I'll Have Another five years ago. Then the Wood's exacta becomes a Derby exacta. BR came from a layoff. He needed that race under him, win or lose.

The sons of Curlin & Ghostzapper Derby exacta would be pretty sweet. Curlin was the most accomplished male horse of the 00's decade. Ghostzapper was the fastest. Like Gunnevera, McCraken is still a bit of a dark horse in the field. Another Street Sense or another always a bridesmaid but never the bride for the big day?

I am looking at Steve Haskin's Derby list and I'm tossing Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. AD would get swallowed up in the stretch if he runs close to those FL Derby splits again. His win was on a speed-favoring track where his best opponent is a plodder who didn't fire.

CE hasn't improved. He ran the same race in the Ark Derby as he did in the Holy Bull with the only difference is he won barely. If you watch the BC Juvenile, he earned a 102 BSF but nearly got caught in that race. I like that Kennedy listed Girvin and Classic Empire in this thread first because they are almost the same horse to me in talent.

His trainer sells off 2YOs and they rarely improve as sophomores. CE's first legitimate defeat was watching IWC and Gunn blow right by him easily. He has wins in CD but if I plan to play horses from the consensus Top 5, I might as well toss two of them out and CE and AD will likely be two of the Top 3 in betting.

I remember 1997 HotY, Favorite Trick (RIP), never improving and barely impressing in his 7F Swale win and then losing to Victory Gallop in the Arkansas Derby. That's Classic Empire to me. His progress is now on neutral thanks to Girvin-like numbers in the Holy Bull and Arkansas Derby.

Arkansas and Louisiana preps were equally bad. Not as bad as the staggerfest we saw in the Santa Anita Derby, but pretty bad. The best 3YOs wintered in Florida. Anyways, whatever happens in Kentucky Derby I Love You (143), Big Gray will destroy them all in the BCC and PWC. I am pretty much locked-in with my Top 3 and Derby bets though.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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bare it all
Posts: 1066
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:21 pm

Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:41 pm

I've spent alot of time coming up with my Derby choice this year. Pouring over records and stats. Watching workouts. Studying hoof patterns. Bath photos. Lots of sciencing. Much science. I've narrowed it down to this:

the 2017 Derby winner will be.........

A grey horse.

This year will be 12 years since a grey winner (Giacomo, 2005). We can't go 12 Derbies without a grey winner in the modern era!!

So this winner will be one of these... Tapwrit, Fast and Accurate, or Battalion Runner

I mean why not, right? 8-)
PJMIII
Posts: 9550
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Thu Apr 27, 2017 3:32 pm

bare it all wrote:I've spent alot of time coming up with my Derby choice this year. Pouring over records and stats. Watching workouts. Studying hoof patterns. Bath photos. Lots of sciencing. Much science. I've narrowed it down to this:

the 2017 Derby winner will be.........

A grey horse.

This year will be 12 years since a grey winner (Giacomo, 2005). We can't go 12 Derbies without a grey winner in the modern era!!

So this winner will be one of these... Tapwrit, Fast and Accurate, or Battalion Runner

I mean why not, right? 8-)
I guess that's as good a way as any to come up with the winner. :)
MySaladDays
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Sat May 06, 2017 4:15 am

MySaladDays wrote:An early trial list, from a number of angles, I computed that the KY DERBY WINNER comes from these 7.

(has nothing to do with exotics, only winner of KY Derby). Then use whatever pedigree and track performance angles, which ones are snake-bit or not 10F horses, to eliminate 6 of 'em from the WIN spot :D

No order: Winner comes from here:

-Irap - less probable esp.w/ tiznow as sire - remove from win spot
-Irish War Cry
-Always Dreaming - remove from win spot
-Practical Joke - remove from win spot
-Hence
-Battalion Runner - scratched
-Thunder Snow


Regardless of win list, Gunnevera will be on my ticket somewhere for SURE.
Ah well, I haven't really changed my mind too much since April 20th. Battallion Runner was scratched, and I have removed Always Dreaming from the Win list, as well as Irap and Practical Joke.

1) That leaves Thunder Snow, Hence, or IWC for top part of my exotic tickets.
Will be playing them w/ State of Honor, Gormley, Practical Joke, Gunnevera, Battle of Midway and Irap in various exotic wagers.

2) Also play my "home-bred box" every year, this year, no different, has been good to me so this is my whacky bet that I just always do:
Thunder Snow, Hence, IWC, McCraken, Patch, State of Honor, Sonneteer

3) I made one whacky superfecta not using these, just on some hunches I have:
Thunder Snow, IWC {over}
Gormley, Untrapped, Hence, Thunder Snow, IWC{over}
Irap, Always Dreaming, State of Honor{over}
Tapwrit, McCracken
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Big Ten
Posts: 664
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Sat May 06, 2017 10:10 am

I had Classic Empire at around #6 or #7. After seeing a couple of his wins last year where he defeated Gunnevera and Practical Joke and looking at the current condition, he instantly goes to #2 on my list. He went from "sucker's bet" to perhaps the smart and slight overlay. Take those odds while he is higher than McCraken's.

Arkansas Derby was probably the second best final prep behind the Florida Derby. His only square defeat was losing Irish War Cry and Gunnevera when he had some setbacks. I will be rooting for any of my Top 7 picks. I just prefer if Gunnevera, Hence, or Sonneteer get in the exacta to try to make any decent profit. Still a winner if any of the top 4 betting choices go 1-2.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Treve
Posts: 4180
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Sat May 06, 2017 12:18 pm

Big Ten wrote:I had Classic Empire at around #6 or #7. After seeing a couple of his wins last year where he defeated Gunnevera and Practical Joke and looking at the current condition, he instantly goes to #2 on my list. He went from "sucker's bet" to perhaps the smart and slight overlay. Take those odds while he is higher than McCraken's.

Arkansas Derby was probably the second best final prep behind the Florida Derby. His only square defeat was losing Irish War Cry and Gunnevera when he had some setbacks. I will be rooting for any of my Top 7 picks. I just prefer if Gunnevera, Hence, or Sonneteer get in the exacta to try to make any decent profit. Still a winner if any of the top 4 betting choices go 1-2.
I wouldn't even call that a square defeat in the sense that he was running on an as of yet undiscovered abscess and had used himself up on the trailer ride there throwing a tantrum, sweating up a storm etc. all the way to the gate where he refused to load.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
MySaladDays
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Sat May 06, 2017 3:43 pm

Big Ten wrote: CE hasn't improved. He ran the same race in the Ark Derby as he did in the Holy Bull with the only difference is he won barely.
100% agree.

Find me a Derby winner who has had 96 "vacation days" in the middle of Derby preps.

I do like "the other Casse horse" a little though. I see him at the 1/8 pole but not sure what his progress will be in the stretch.
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