Derby Lists 2017

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby stark » Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:16 pm

Kennedy wrote:I hadn't realized that I was out of my senses up until now but I'm glad to have come to them.

For a person like me watching it closely means simply keeping my eye on the news. I don't have any special insight. I sit in my house and read the reports of those who do.

I think there are things you could likely figure out in terms of a horse being prepared for one spot over another if there was a real difference in timing or conditions of the two spots but honestly I have no reason to expect that preparation for the SA Derby would need to look any different than preparation for the SA Oaks. I suspect Unique Bella would win either contest.


I would think that part of the formula for constructing and maintaining such lists as you read the reports would include a glimpse at the actual betting in the futurebooks around the world. Currently at about 20-1 in Las Vegas, that should get Bella a top ten listing on anybody's list, I would think. Add to that, one of the offshore books has her at a ridiculous 9/2 and I think you have the makings of someone sitting on a major score. Rule 117A, FollowTheMoney!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Kennedy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:00 pm

It is not part of my consideration.

The future book betting market is merely a representation of the cumulative opinion of those willing to back their opinion.

My Derby list isn't anyone else's opinion it's my opinion. So why would I need a future book to tell me what my opinion is?

My opinion on Unique Bella still is what has always been. She is good enough to win a race like the Derby but unlikely to try. The only reason I even have her on my radar is that the conservatism her connections have shown has cause to be challenged with the injury to Mastery. I still don't think she'll actually run in the Derby but she might and I'd want her to.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Tessablue » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:04 pm

Mohaymen was like 3-1 in last year's futures, I'd rather not follow that money.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Somnambulist » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:31 pm

Tessablue wrote:Mohaymen was like 3-1 in last year's futures, I'd rather not follow that money.


Hopefully you were clocked out of work before posting that
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Tessablue » Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:38 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Mohaymen was like 3-1 in last year's futures, I'd rather not follow that money.


Hopefully you were clocked out of work before posting that

lol well I can say my boss never would've bet on Mohaymen at those odds...
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Apollo » Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:02 am

I worked in race and sportsbooks as supervisor. The entire industry is not nearly as sophisticated as conventional wisdom prefers, and you can multiply that by 1000 when it comes to future books. Often it's nothing more than the manager getting scared of one horse or one team and dictating a huge drop in the odds. He might see it lower across the street. He might read a sentence in the paper or online. It's literally that basic, and often laughable.

That's why it's not always valid to say you are following the money, or going against the money. There might not be any money at all, or very little of it. I've seen a manager drop the odds from 50-1 to 5-1 "on air", meaning without a bet. Not a dollar. They see a race and want no money on that horse at all. That's particularly true if they feel good about their position in the future book overall. Let's say a big early wager is already kaput because the horse got hurt and is out. They don't want to jeopardize the win.

Overall the Derby future book is not a bad place to take an early stance. It certainly offers greater value, for example, than taking a longshot sports team. The 1987 Minnesota Twins ruined future odds on sports because many sportsbooks took a big hit after offering big odds. The statewide director literally sent out a memo telling sportsbook manager to slice the odds on everybody. It made no sense to offer 1000/1 or 500/1 or even 100/1 when you get a steady diet of public money from across the country and they are willing to take any number, as long as it allows a rooting interest on their favorite team. The sportsbooks followed that directive for a half decade or so but then they got overconfident and started to raise the odds. Then they got burned again with the 1999 Rams. Many tickets were cashed at 150-1 or 200-1, if not higher. Now the race and sportsbooks are more conservative in general that they were decades ago, so naturally that attaches to sports future odds above anything else. You could literally double every number and still not find bargains.

Horses offer considerably more uncertainty. It's not limited to 32 possibilities like the NFL. There are 340ish major college basketball teams but obviously only a couple dozen tops have the manpower to win 6 postseason games and capture the title. But the Derby winner could easily come from a batch that was in the 340 range, if not beyond, as a 2 year old. That's why I don't condemn anyone for taking an early stab. But once the information is available the managers get so petrified it's generally wise to merely wait for the gate odds.

Keep in mind the entire industry has a stake in being mysterious and supposedly ultra sophisticated. They want you to believe they have magic formulas behind those walls, and all type of inside information not available to anyone else. It is preposterous. It is struggling white males who want to stay involved in sports rather than do difficult work for a living. They don't want you to know they move odds "on air" and rely on stolen power ratings to set the odds on virtually everything. Otherwise the sports networks won't stick a camera in their face several times per year preceding all the big events, begging for wisdom.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:49 am

peeptoad wrote:These are my current top 4 based on what they've done thus far (this year). There not really ranked except maybe mildly:
Tapwrit
McCraken
Gunnevera
American Anthem

Next these guys. The Japanese horse in particular I'm interested in this year (at least I'm curious to see how he does in Dubai):
J Boys Echo
Epicharis

On my radar for improvement and this could be any number of horses, but these 4 in particular based on their last races:
Cloud Computing
Petrov
Royal Mo
Silver Dust

All my radar horses are gone except CC and drop American Anthem. No replacements yet. Not really enthused about any of these for the big dance this year, but someone's got to win it. Maybe the final round of preps will bring forth someone new and exciting or a rebound from a horse that regressed or ran poorly this time around.

:?:
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Tessablue » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:17 pm

Ten bucks says American Anthem gallops in front of a short field in the SA Derby and still ends up one of the favorites on Derby day...

Still only like one horse, just have to root for some speed to get in.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:51 am

At this point I'm ready to either throw a dart or just simply bet Epicharis, which may be akin to throwing a dart...
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Kennedy » Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:56 pm

March 20, 2017

1. McCraken (1)
2. One Liner (2)
3. Tapwrit (3)
4. West Coast (4)
5. Gunnevera (5)
6. J Boys Echo (7)
7. Battalion Runner (8)
8. Girvin (9)
9. Petrov (6)
10. Malagacy (new)

Radar: Untrapped, Mo Town, Cloud Computing, Unique Bella

Dropped: Royal Mo (10)


The Californians continue to disappoint and my list is now at the point where a horse who hasn’t even faced winners is the only one left from the left coast. I’ve been skeptical of the Sherriffs pair all along but Royal Mo was much worse than I expected and American Anthem threw in a dud as well. The SA Derby is looking more and more like easy pickings for a shipper or perhaps the perfect chance for West Coast to burst onto the scene :)

I’m not sure what to make of all the Pletcher contenders coming out of the woodwork. His worst 2yo crop in recent memory just seems to be a collection of late bloomers but it still feels like I might regret supporting them. Still all look solid enough and have every reason to be respected going forward. I still prefer them in the order I have them with One Liner above Tapwrit with Malagacy the least of the 3.

One Liner has simply been the most brilliant of the 3 and appears to be more the Derby winning type among the 3. Tapwrit is the solid citizen, maybe the least susceptible to the boom or bust variation and Malagacy clearly has talent but I could also see him being the latest of Pletcher’s last place finishers who looked good on paper beforehand. It’s maybe harsh on Malagacy because he actually ran really well in the Rebel and closed smartly off a stiff pace. He beat the useful benchmark Petrov and seemed like he could have gone further.

Petrov stays on my list despite the 4th place finish because more and more I see a level of effort and grit that I trust. He is likely running himself out of any real chance to be regarded as a Derby winner but as a grinder who could fill a bottom place he is becoming more and more attractive.

Untrapped also improved his standing in my eyes with a decently solid run but it was maybe a bit of a better form reference for Girvin than anything else.
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