Derby Lists 2017

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby stark » Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:38 pm

As of this past Sunday March 5th, the WYNN corporation in Las Vegas has adjusted their futurebook odds to reflect the actual dollars being wagered. The opening odds were posted in early December for those brave enough to dip their toes in.

The favorites at this time are:
1. Classic Empire Opened at 125/1 currently at 8/1
2. Mastery Opened at 500/1 currently 8/1
3. McCraken Opened at 225/1 currently 8/1
4. Gunnevera opened at 100/1 currently 12/1
5. Practical Joke Opened at 60/1 currently 14/1
6. Gormley Opened at 100/1 currently 18/1
7. Unique Bella Opened at 300/1 currently 22/1
8. One Liner Opened at 100/1 currently 22/1
9. American Anthem Opened at 225/1 currently 25/1
10. Girvin Opened at 175/1 currently 25/1
11 Irish War Cry Opened at 125/1 currently 25/1
12 J Boys Echo Opened at 100/1 currently 25/1
13 Royal Mo Opened at 175/1 currently 25/1
14 Batallion Runner Opened at 200/1 currently 30/1
15 El Areeb opened at 300/1 currently 30/1
16 Greatbullsoffire Opened at 400/1 currently 30/1
17 Guest Suite Opened at 225/1 currently 35/1
18 Cloud Computing opened at 200/1 currently 40/1
19 Iliad opened at 300/1 currently 40/1
20 Lookin At Lee Opened at 150/1 currently 40/1
21 Mo Town Opened at 150/1 currently 40/1
22 Petrov Opened at 350/1 currently 45/1
23 Three Rules Opened at 60/1 currently 45/1
24 Good Samaritan Opened at 200/1 currently 50/1
25 Irish Freedom Opened at 175/1 currently 50/1
26 Taprit Opened at 150/1 currently 50/1
27 Theory Opened at 75/1 currently 50/1
28 Untrapped Opened at 225/1 currently 50/1

There are approximately 180 additional horses still on the list, hopefully none already retired--that's so embarrassing! They go all the way up to Alans Legacy, Downhill Racer, Horse Fly all currently listed at 500-1
If somebody's odds seem absurdly low to you, that's just the house's way of saying no thanks, we've got enough action on that one, go shop somewhere else.
I'm thinking the Derby winner is on that list, if you think otherwise, please advise asap ;)
http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/20 ... nn_3-5.pdf
Last edited by stark on Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:55 pm, edited 7 times in total.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Somnambulist » Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:39 pm

I feel like I spend my money on a lot of stupid things.

I cannot imagine why anyone would book a futures wager.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby stark » Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:49 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I feel like I spend my money on a lot of stupid things.

I cannot imagine why anyone would book (make?) a futures wager.


Horse racing never seems to change, everybody has an opinion and that's a good thing.

Question, if you followed the sales, understood breeding, and spent countless hours to come up with a horse or two that you liked, and now you're holding tickets that if they were to win would pay you off 100x your wager would you at least be a little excited as we sit here in March?

Or two, would doing the countless hours of required research so that you could post your picks on the Interweb for bragging rights make you happy enough without the cash ever having a chance to reach your hands?

I for one learned my lessons in life early, the first time was reading all about the grooms and stablehands who knew just how good Winning Colors was so they went down to Caliente and made a small fortune on her. It didn't take me long to figure it out, as the very next year I was lucky enough to bet Sunday Silence at 50-1 and the feeling I had standing on my seat in the rain watching PVal weave his way down the stretch is absolutely something I can't describe to this day but I do know that everybody else was cheering and their tickets said 5/2 that Saturday in 89.

And finally, I wonder if it's the grooms and stablehands for Unique Bella that have hammered her price down to unbettable in March? Hmmmm?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Matt Converse » Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:25 am

Somnambulist wrote:I feel like I spend my money on a lot of stupid things.

I cannot imagine why anyone would book a futures wager.


Just for fun. And bet more than one horse, give yourself a chance to make the gate with a few horses. And if you hit the most important thing of all: NEVER bet it again!
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:41 am

It is a lousy bet, but I partake from time to time. Think I've placed maybe 4 over the years, and the closest I've gotten was Pioneerof the Nile. ;)
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Somnambulist » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:34 am

stark wrote:
Question, if you followed the sales, understood breeding, and spent countless hours to come up with a horse or two that you liked, and now you're holding tickets that if they were to win would pay you off 100x your wager would you at least be a little excited as we sit here in March?

Or two, would doing the countless hours of required research so that you could post your picks on the Interweb for bragging rights make you happy enough without the cash ever having a chance to reach your hands?


I don't know why I would ever care what random people on the web who have never met me nor I them think about the bets I cash vs. what I don't.

I guess I view the futures similarly to playing the lotto, which I also don't get playing. But betting $2-$10 isn't hurting anyone outside of maybe a few cups of coffee.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Kennedy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:20 pm

March 13, 2017

1. McCraken (1)
2. One Liner (2)
3. Tapwrit (7)
4. West Coast (3)
5. Gunnevera (6)
6. Petrov (8)
7. J Boys Echo (9)
8. Battalion Runner (10)
9. Girvin (new)
10. Royal Mo (new)

Radar: American Anthem, Mo Town, Cloud Computing, Malagacy, Unique Bella

Dropped: Iliad (4), Mastery (5)


The Derby can be a tough trail to follow as evidenced by this weekend’s dazzling display then immediate removal of Mastery from Derby consideration. I think the San Felipe did more to damage the Derby trail than anything as I think between injury and the ability displayed none of the horses should bother going on. It’s a real shame because this was the race we all hoped to see out of Mastery.
I know that connections of Illiad and perhaps Gormley will want to try again but I think this race exposed them. Illiad looked like a total non-stayer while Gormley once again finished slowly. If he’s not in front with slow horses chasing him he’s not going to win.

I feel like the Tampa Bay Derby was maybe a little overshadowed because it didn’t earn the same flashy figure but it was a solid race and there is no reason to think that Tapwrit isn’t a good solid Derby candidate with the ability to improve next time.

I’m not sure that I like State of Honor or Wild Shot to improve with added distance but State of Honor did run pretty well.

That leaves room on my list for some new comers and I’ve brought Girvin and Royal Mo onto the list despite being somewhat shaky on either of their actual chances. They have chances to improve though and they certainly might.

West Coast broke his maiden and was a little less impressive than in his debut where he lost but the race turned into a bit of a farce with just 3 entrants and he did nothing wrong. He just didn’t need to do very much to win. I still think he is the #1 Derby hope in the Baffert barn and should get a chance to prove it in one of the final major preps. It may even be in the SA Derby since the west coast crop is weak and was weakened further by the San Felipe result.

I am adding Unique Bella to my radar, not because of anything I’ve read but because of the injury to Mastery. With him out I’d have to think that the connections would at least be tempted to try the SA Derby and if they do they could easily wind up being the Derby favorite. Still I think they’ll opt for the conservative approach but I’ll watch that closely.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:41 am

These are my current top 4 based on what they've done thus far (this year). There not really ranked except maybe mildly:
Tapwrit
McCraken
Gunnevera
American Anthem

Next these guys. The Japanese horse in particular I'm interested in this year (at least I'm curious to see how he does in Dubai):
J Boys Echo
Epicharis

On my radar for improvement and this could be any number of horses, but these 4 in particular based on their last races:
Cloud Computing
Petrov
Royal Mo
Silver Dust
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby stark » Tue Mar 14, 2017 4:07 pm

Kennedy wrote:March 13, 2017
I am adding Unique Bella to my radar, not because of anything I’ve read but because of the injury to Mastery. With him out I’d have to think that the connections would at least be tempted to try the SA Derby and if they do they could easily wind up being the Derby favorite. Still I think they’ll opt for the conservative approach but I’ll watch that closely.


I'm certainly glad to see that somebody with one of these annual lists has finally come to their senses, congrats!

Please explain about watching it closely.
Bella will either run in the Santa Anita Derby on April 8th or the Santa Anita Oaks also on April 8th.
Would you expect her to train any differently in the meantime?
Or do we just have to wait and see the entries?
Can she cross enter and have her choice or does the latter race become automatic?
thanks and good luck.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Kennedy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 4:32 pm

stark wrote:
Kennedy wrote:March 13, 2017
I am adding Unique Bella to my radar, not because of anything I’ve read but because of the injury to Mastery. With him out I’d have to think that the connections would at least be tempted to try the SA Derby and if they do they could easily wind up being the Derby favorite. Still I think they’ll opt for the conservative approach but I’ll watch that closely.


I'm certainly glad to see that somebody with one of these annual lists has finally come to their senses, congrats!

Please explain about watching it closely.
Bella will either run in the Santa Anita Derby on April 8th or the Santa Anita Oaks also on April 8th.
Would you expect her to train any differently in the meantime?
Or do we just have to wait and see the entries?
Can she cross enter and have her choice or does the latter race become automatic?
thanks and good luck.


I hadn't realized that I was out of my senses up until now but I'm glad to have come to them.

For a person like me watching it closely means simply keeping my eye on the news. I don't have any special insight. I sit in my house and read the reports of those who do.

I think there are things you could likely figure out in terms of a horse being prepared for one spot over another if there was a real difference in timing or conditions of the two spots but honestly I have no reason to expect that preparation for the SA Derby would need to look any different than preparation for the SA Oaks. I suspect Unique Bella would win either contest.
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