Tessablue wrote:Interested to hear your thoughts on Hence, peep. I loved the sustained run he made in the Sunland Derby, but his race prior is a mystery and I don't know that Asmussen has ever offered an explanation for it.
To compare them coming out of that one common race I actually prefer Mo Money slightly because of his running style. That might be negated by Hence being more likely to appreciate the added distance. Hence seems more pace dependent to me. Mo Money has taken greater adversity (and overcome some of it). He's a horse I toss with a bad post or if it seems a torrid early pace is likely, but otherwise I prefer him slightly to Hence and give him a shot to hit the board. They both should be pretty decent prices and I'll likely use both underneath, at least.
I think the ultimate result, as in any race, will be partially dependent on how the early pace unfolds, and much of that may lie with horses like Battle of Midway and Fast and Accurate, that are more up against it. That might result in a solid early pace, advantage Gunnevera, McCraken, Hence, etc. If the pace is more moderate it would favor horses like Always Dreaming, IWC, Mo Money, and possibly Classic Empire. The latter might be more adaptable when he's at his best, but he's erratic and has had setbacks.
I don't have really strong feelings about any individual horses, but there are ones that more certain for the outright win vs others. Doesn't mean any one of them couldn't win it all.
Based on that general line of thinking:
McCraken- I think needed the last one and was up against it closing into the slow early pace of the BG. If he takes to 10F then he's the most likely winner imo
Classic Empire- when he's right he's tough but he also has had setbacks both mentally and physically.
Gunnevera- would benefit from a solid to fast early pace, less likely to close if the pace is slower and his last was a bit ho hum
Irish War Cry
Always Dreaming- I won't personally be using him, but has a forward running style. I'm not convinced he can take adversity and still finish and his price will be chalky
the rest I give a varying & overall slightly lesser chance to win. These are some that I will likely use in win spot and underneath (with the chalk) because their prices will be better:
Conquest Mo Money
J Boys Echo
Lookin at Lee or Soneteer- if a fast early pace seems likely