Derby Lists 2017

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Apollo » Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:01 pm

I forgot to mention Classic Empire. Racing is always best served when the 2 year old champion translates dominance to 3. That's what made the '70s so special when I was a teenager. You could isolate the horse and follow his schedule. The schedule was actually somewhat crowded in those days.

What a concept.

Then the subsequent generation got robbed when the 2 year old champ generally wasn't much. It rarely was worth following him into 3 and you actually had fans who made a point to throw out that horse. I think it was one of the reasons American Pharoah was ridiculously doubted deep into his Classic campaign. For those of us who followed the '70s legends in real time it was a familiar pattern and not difficult to project a comparatively dull Derby effort leading to a more dominant Preakness and cruising Belmont. The younger fans who wasted time desperately rooting for Smarty Jones types either didn't believe in American Pharoah throughout or thought he would be yet another New York disappointment.

Classic Empire isn't on American Pharoah's level but I was thrilled at his Arkansas Derby rally and that the early class horse will get his chance in Louisville. His trip is difficult to project. That's why I prefer Always Dreaming above. The latter looks like an improved and more tactical version of his sire Bodemeister. With Classic Empire if he gets stuck in the Derby he's going to have to spring clear and chase down somebody considerably more formidable than Malagacy.

The kicker with Classic Empire is I don't see how anyone can back him in the Kentucky Derby if you didn't have him in the Arkansas Derby. Otherwise you bypassed the soft spot with the value price and now are inheriting dozens more variables and nearly ten more horses, all for a price that won't be appropriately more rewarding. For a matchup bettor like myself that type of thing doesn't always come into play if he's matched against a vulnerable horse in a one-on-one situation. But I don't see how it can be ignored from a parimutuel standpoint.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:06 pm

Tessablue wrote:Interested to hear your thoughts on Hence, peep. I loved the sustained run he made in the Sunland Derby, but his race prior is a mystery and I don't know that Asmussen has ever offered an explanation for it.


To compare them coming out of that one common race I actually prefer Mo Money slightly because of his running style. That might be negated by Hence being more likely to appreciate the added distance. Hence seems more pace dependent to me. Mo Money has taken greater adversity (and overcome some of it). He's a horse I toss with a bad post or if it seems a torrid early pace is likely, but otherwise I prefer him slightly to Hence and give him a shot to hit the board. They both should be pretty decent prices and I'll likely use both underneath, at least.

I think the ultimate result, as in any race, will be partially dependent on how the early pace unfolds, and much of that may lie with horses like Battle of Midway and Fast and Accurate, that are more up against it. That might result in a solid early pace, advantage Gunnevera, McCraken, Hence, etc. If the pace is more moderate it would favor horses like Always Dreaming, IWC, Mo Money, and possibly Classic Empire. The latter might be more adaptable when he's at his best, but he's erratic and has had setbacks.
I don't have really strong feelings about any individual horses, but there are ones that more certain for the outright win vs others. Doesn't mean any one of them couldn't win it all.
Based on that general line of thinking:


McCraken- I think needed the last one and was up against it closing into the slow early pace of the BG. If he takes to 10F then he's the most likely winner imo
Classic Empire- when he's right he's tough but he also has had setbacks both mentally and physically.
Gunnevera- would benefit from a solid to fast early pace, less likely to close if the pace is slower and his last was a bit ho hum
Irish War Cry
Always Dreaming- I won't personally be using him, but has a forward running style. I'm not convinced he can take adversity and still finish and his price will be chalky

the rest I give a varying & overall slightly lesser chance to win. These are some that I will likely use in win spot and underneath (with the chalk) because their prices will be better:
Girvin
Conquest Mo Money
Hence
J Boys Echo
Practical Joke
Lookin at Lee or Soneteer- if a fast early pace seems likely
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby MySaladDays » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:21 pm

Old picks, deleted
Last edited by MySaladDays on Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby stark » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:28 pm

IF this is the toteboard I'm looking at on Derby Day, I think I want to narrow my choices for key win betting down to just four horses where I consider the risk worth the reward, horses at odds between 12-1 and 15-1.

Classic Empire 5-1
Always Dreaming 6-1
Irish War Cry 6-1
McKraken 8-1
Gunnevera 12-1
Gormley 15-1
Girvin 15-1
Practical Joke 15-1

Irap 20-1
ThunderSnow 20-1
JBoysEcho 20-1
Tapwrit 20-1
Malagacy 20-1
Hence 20-1
Batallion Runner 20-1
Hence 20-1
Battle of Midway 30-1
StateofHonor 30-1
Untrapped 30-1
FastnAccurate 50/1

It just makes my handicapping easier when I only need to focus on 4 out 20 stalls. I'm avoiding those with too short of a price as well as those bombers the majority think have little chance of winning.

I'm betting the winner pays between $22 and $32. Do you think anybody else fits that profile?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby tcw » Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:48 pm

Regarding Hence, he ran well and more importantly finished well going 9F last out, but one thing I don't like is the fact that his last race will have been 6 weeks out from the Derby. But given that fact, at least he's not TP-trained. If so, I would have given him virtually no chance.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:51 am

peeptoad wrote:


McCraken- I think needed the last one and was up against it closing into the slow early pace of the BG. If he takes to 10F then he's the most likely winner imo
Classic Empire- when he's right he's tough but he also has had setbacks both mentally and physically.
Gunnevera- would benefit from a solid to fast early pace, less likely to close if the pace is slower and his last was a bit ho hum
Irish War Cry
Always Dreaming- I won't personally be using him, but has a forward running style. I'm not convinced he can take adversity and still finish and his price will be chalky

the rest I give a varying & overall slightly lesser chance to win. These are some that I will likely use in win spot and underneath (with the chalk) because their prices will be better:
Girvin
Hence
J Boys Echo
Practical Joke
Lookin at Lee or Soneteer- if a fast early pace seems likely

Of the likely chalkier horses I am liking Irish War Cry more after reviewing his races and pps for about the 4th time. He broke reasonably and was able to move up and stalk a fast pace in the Wood and still finish, albeit maybe not the fastest. If the pace is more reasonable in the Derby and he can carry that form, then he should fare okay (having all the same distance questions that the other need to answer as well).
I feel less positive about McCraken after the same review process, but who knows since he missed a race. CE is too erratic for me to feel confident about and, unless those 3 are compromised by the post draw and Always Dreaming is not, I will likely toss Always Dreaming from the top 2 spots anyway. I would need at least 7-1 or better to bet Always Dreaming and I think his price will be lower than that.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby MySaladDays » Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:58 pm

An early trial list, from a number of angles, I computed that the KY DERBY WINNER comes from these 7.

(has nothing to do with exotics, only winner of KY Derby). Then use whatever pedigree and track performance angles, which ones are snake-bit or not 10F horses, to eliminate 6 of 'em from the WIN spot :D

No order: Winner comes from here:

-Irap - less probable esp.w/ tiznow as sire
-Irish War Cry
-Always Dreaming
-Practical Joke
-Hence
-Battalion Runner
-Thunder Snow


Regardless of win list, Gunnevera will be on my ticket somewhere for SURE.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Big Ten » Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:26 pm

Kennedy seems to be spot on with his top pick like it was in 2013 with Orb. Planning to bet plenty for McCraken. Son of Ghostzapper, 3 for 3 at CD, and a closing kick like Street Sense and his papa is all I need to know. Hoping to get 10-1 on the son of my #4 fav horse ever. The jockey shares the same last name as me as well.

McCraken is where it's crackin'. 8-)
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. American Pharoah. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Somnambulist » Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:28 pm

If McCracken has GZ's kick its only because it's the watered down one.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Kennedy » Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:35 pm

Personally I love this part of Derby trail. Where all the preps are run and we can just crunch the numbers and find enough angles to confuse ourselves.

It's a wonderful time of year!

My own personal number crunching does show what most people believe already. All the entrants have a least one statistical flaw that a potential backer would need to be willing to overlook. It comes down to which factors you think are most important!
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