Derby Lists 2017

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby blamethewinner » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:07 pm

Why would anyone want to bet McCraken?

You're going to take an underlaid price on a horse everyone is betting because they're assuming he needed his last race and that Ian Wilkes has a plan in mind. Don't kid yourself for a second, his Blue Grass was not a good performance. His jockey was race ridden and he lost a bit of position before making a big move and hanging badly. He has the look of a horse with real distance limitations and will now be a fraction of his fair odds.

I'd bet either of the 1-2 finishers in the BG over McCraken, and they'll both be better prices.
blamethewinner
 
Posts: 497
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:08 pm

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Big Ten » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:48 pm

Somnambulist wrote:If McCracken has GZ's kick its only because it's the watered down one.
He doesn't need to have same late kick as his sire against these slugs.

I like Blamethewinner's mentality. I also liked McCraken losing his last prep. Raise doubts to raise the price. Unbridled and Thunder Gulch lost in the Blue Grass. Blame didn't even run a lick in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. How did things turn out in their next race?

Jared is right. They all have flaws. What matters is what flaws you can live with. I don't need any of this stats mumbo jumbo. I like McCraken and willing to cross out his last race. I want to see a GZ colt win with a Hernandez name in a Derby trophy (and no I'm not Latino). Too bad for another Hernandez in a jail cell.

3 for 3 in Churchill. Blame loved CD, so why not go for a horse with experience there? Irish War Cry and Classic Empire don't impress me one bit. IWC is a poor man's Dortmund with a 13+ closing quarter. Classic Empire might be in my Top 3 but I wouldn't trust him either.

Placing $100 on McCraken. $80 to win. $20 to place. I hope to turn that $100 capital into $700+ of he goes off at 8-1. Pay off my Google Pixel entirely. No exotics for me this year. Just keep it simple. DoorDash money is easy money for me all day. If I lose, oh well. Move on into betting the NBA Playoffs.
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. American Pharoah. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
User avatar
Big Ten
 
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby MySaladDays » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:11 pm

Somnambulist wrote:If McCracken has GZ's kick its only because it's the watered down one.


I think there have only been 2 Derby winners in last 10 or 15 years with his kind of numbers in the stretch call at 1-1/8. I'll Have Another and I think Orb. So it does happen. But even going back to Lil E tee and Sea Hero, you just don't see stretch call numbers above 3 in most derby winners at 1-1/8

But poster may be right, perhaps McCraken will do better at CD track than at KEEN or TAM. I know the dirt at KEEN isnt' the dirt at CD....but watching him unable to make up ground on a maiden who wasn't even running on the correct lead had me a bit concerned.

For McCraken lovers, this makes your odds go up so that is good for you.

Nafzger says he's like a lap puppy like Unbridled was. :D Seems like a really sweet friendly horse.
MySaladDays
 
Posts: 719
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:37 am

blamethewinner wrote:Why would anyone want to bet McCraken?

...

I'd bet either of the 1-2 finishers in the BG over McCraken, and they'll both be better prices.

Agree on Practical Joke )the only horse to close ground on the winner), but not Irap. I'll let that one beat me. He set a snail-like pace that no one was reasonably able to close into (save PJ).
peeptoad
 
Posts: 2455
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm


Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Admin » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:27 am

Who is going to be the favorite? Seems no one is even sure of that. Most seem to think Always Dreaming will be favored, but I don't know why. IWC is best by the numbers so you'd think that'd make him the fav, but he's just not getting the love. Classic Empire has the reputation going for him, but people are still cold on him.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 1808
Joined: Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:35 pm

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Somnambulist » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:30 am

Admin wrote:Who is going to be the favorite? Seems no one is even sure of that. Most seem to think Always Dreaming will be favored, but I don't know why. IWC is best by the numbers so you'd think that'd make him the fav, but he's just not getting the love. Classic Empire has the reputation going for him, but people are still cold on him.


CE has to go off favored.

I personally think this is going to be a great betting race.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
User avatar
Somnambulist
 
Posts: 6763
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby peeptoad » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:16 am

Somnambulist wrote:
CE has to go off favored.


I would think so...
If I had to wager a guess the top 4 would be:
CE
McCraken
Irish War Cry
Always Dreaming

IWC and AD may be reversed?
peeptoad
 
Posts: 2455
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Premier Pegasus » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:30 am

Preliminary plans until the post positions are final.

Top Keys: Thunder Snow, Classic Empire

Secondary Keys (if the top keys scratch, main bottom of exotics)
: Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming

Underneath (Exactas, Trifectas, Supers): McCraken [local 3-for-3], Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer, Practical Joke, State Of Honor

Bombs (a Win bet flyer): Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer
User avatar
Premier Pegasus
 
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:00 am

Re: Derby Lists 2017

Postby Big Ten » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:24 pm

McCraken
Classic Empire
Irish War Cry

Always Dreaming (another Pletcher fool's gold)
Gunnevera

I actually do think the Florida Derby was the best prep but I will continue to bet against Pletcher until his trainees start winning the Derby more.

Classic Empire and Irish War Cry have the best Derby names for a winner. IWC and Gunnevera are two handsome horses. Consensus Top 4 is CE, IWC, AD, and McCraken.

I don't usually agree with Kennedy's top pick. I wasn't around when Orb won it. I haven't agreed with his top pick since 2005 with High Fly. Never cared for Hoppertunity although he turned out to be useful for Baffert. I usually agree with Matt and TCW's lists but theirs is usually chalky. I look for value like Kennedy. Battle of getting it right or higher ROI? I used to hit 5x races with quarter horses in LosAl and barely made profit. So where Ken I agree on alot is finding the right price.

McCraken was the favorite in the first futures pool. I like that Blamethewinner is trashing the pick. Higher odds for me. None of our strong arm opinions matters once the gates open. I like that McCraken lost the Blue Grass like Unbridled and Street Sense did. Higher odds for me. Better off to keep things quiet and let people run to the windows banking on another Pletcher standout, a 2yo champ, and a handsome New Joyzee-bred. I like Ernie McCracken in Kingpin and I like McCraken here.

I want Ghostzapper to be bred to Zenyatta so we can have our Ghost In The Machine already! Curlin already shined with Exaggerator last year.

Win - $80 x 8 = $640
Place - $20 x 4 = $80

"Hi, Ernie McCracken. They call me Big Ern!"

"Sometimes when I wake up in the morning, Mr. McCraken is already there."
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. American Pharoah. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
User avatar
Big Ten
 
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

PreviousNext

Return to Racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests