Derby Lists 2017

[Katewerk]

I'm just going with this.

http://www.exactamundo.org/2017/03/20/2 ... generator/

[peeptoad]

I'm just going with this.

http://www.exactamundo.org/2017/03/20/2 ... generator/

Lol, this is probably the year for it!

[MySaladDays]

At this point I'm ready to either throw a dart or just simply bet Epicharis, which may be akin to throwing a dart...

Probably covered in anotehr topic already, but he is not derby bound. They are saying Preakness and/or Belmont only now

[Katewerk]

I'm just going with this.

http://www.exactamundo.org/2017/03/20/2 ... generator/

Lol, this is probably the year for it!

Actually, I've settled on J Boys Echo, because he has a Quarter Horse sounding name.

[MySaladDays]

I'm assuming IWC is off the trail, or should be, 1 work this week, wasn't pushed .......last work was like a month ago.

Trainer says he's going to the Wood?

[Kennedy]

March 27, 2017

1. McCraken (1)
2. One Liner (2)
3. Tapwrit (3)
4. West Coast (4)
5. Gunnevera (5)
6. J Boys Echo (6)
7. Battalion Runner (7)
8. Girvin (8)
9. Petrov (9)
10. Malagacy (10)

Radar: Untrapped, Hence, Mo Town, Cloud Computing, Unique Bella, Irish War Cry

Not much to change my thinking this week although I did add a few horses to my radar. I was much more impressed with Hence than I expected to be. I had about as much expectation for the Sunland Derby as I did for the Spiral, which is to say no legitimate contender would emerge but Hence looked good enough for the radar. He looked a bit young and gangly to me so I’m not sure that he’d be ready for a rough and tumble Derby but he finished with excellent energy and came home very quickly for a 9f race. I think there might be a half decent horse in there and if he gets a good trip maybe he could pick up a piece.

I didn’t add Epicaris to my list even though I did think he looked pretty good. I’m not sure that he would actually be good enough. I think that his level of performance would have been enough to win the Spiral but he’d have been touch and go in the Sunland Derby. Overall he’s likely not good enough but he is interesting. Thunder Snow looks like a certain non-stayer that obviously has class. Godolphin shouldn’t send him.

Irish War Cry is back on my radar after news that he is pointing to the Wood. I’m not sure if I could really trust him after his debacle but I do think he has talent.

[BaroqueAgain1]

The connections have already stated that Epicharis will not be coming for the Derby, but might compete in the Preakness or Belmont.
With Epicharis declining to go, that puts Mont Saint Legame (JPN) into the gate as the Japanese qualifier.

[MySaladDays]

Hence was well thought of before he raced at OP, I put him in my virtual stable based on the pedigree when he arrived and then he disappointed me and I almost removed him.

I think he could very well hit the exacta in the KY Derby if he continues to improve. Right now he is still pretty green but seems to be putting things together, he seems like a fighter.

[MySaladDays]

My April list of 18 horses, before the Wood, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby are run

This is for the WIN only, not ITM horses. I believe the winner of the KY Derby will come from here right now:

No order:

Hence
State of Honor
Patch
McCraken
Reach the World
Wild Shot
Guest Suite (saving for Belmont probably coming off the derby list soon)
Sonneteer
Irish War Cry
No Dozing
Gormley
Reach the World
Petrov
Silver Dust
Hedge Fund
Gunnevera
Mont Saint Legame
Adirato

[Kennedy]

April 4, 2017

1. McCraken (1)
2. One Liner (2)
3. Tapwrit (3)
4. Gunnevera (5)
5. West Coast (4)
6. J Boys Echo (6)
7. Battalion Runner (7)
8. Girvin (8)
9. Petrov (9)
10. Malagacy (10)

Radar: Untrapped, Hence, Mo Town, Cloud Computing, Irish War Cry

So it looks like we now have 8 Derby entrants in the clubhouse waiting to see how the competition will ultimately stack up. I have the listed below.

Hence
Fast and Accurate
Girvin
Always Dreaming
State of Honor
Gunnevera
Patch
Local Hero

Of these 8 I really only have much hope for Gunnevera and Girvin although Hence may sneak onto the bottom of my list but I’m not really sold on him. I think the preps we’ve seen have not contained the horses that will be deciding the Derby down the stretch aside from perhaps Gunnevera.

I know it’ll be easy to find negatives with his Florida Derby performance but I’m actually not worried at all. It’s just the kind of race that buries form a little but he’s fine. He’s a hard closing late runner that could easily get a favorable pace setup in the Kentucky Derby. I wouldn’t love him into a slow pace but really I feel pretty good about his chances of being somewhere in the superfecta. The one downside for him is that his latest speed figure was his lowest among his last 3. In the Beyer Speed figure era 68 horses have entered the Derby off that pattern and they are a combined 0-2-1 in the big event. I do feel that he is likely to be in the super but perhaps not the likely winner.

Girvin is a horse I’d really like to cheer for and he’s not done anything wrong except lack some brilliance. I think he’s good enough but I don’t trust him to put out that really brilliant performance it would take. In terms of speed figures and averages he is unlikely to be fast enough in this group unless the last few preps come up really slow.

I don’t have Always Dreaming on my short list and perhaps that’s a bit shocking but this totally feels like a Pletcher horse perfectly suited to the prep race that was chosen and not so well suited to the big dance. I know it’s harsh on him but he’ll be on my short list for last place Derby finishing candidates.

The big preps should yield some really big results and I feel like we’ll get a good line on the contenders. The Santa Anita Derby is likely the least interesting although it does contain my favorite longshot selection West Coast. The Blue Grass should give a great impression of McCraken since he’ll have to face Tapwrit again along with a few other really solid candidates. I could actually see McCraken losing for the first time but as long as he looks good and finishes well I’m not at all worried.

The Wood seems full of horses that are either looking for redemption like Mo Town and Irish War Cry or looking to really confirm themselves as real top level performers like Battalion Runner and Cloud Computing. Honestly I think the Pletcher horse is the most likely to come out the Wood looking solid but we shall see.