2017 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

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Apollo
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:48 pm

stark wrote:I think it's about time that we have a morning line favorite listed at 5/1, if not higher!

16 Nyquist 3/1
15 American Pharoah 5/2
14 California Chrome 5/2
13 Orb 7/2 actual off odds 5.40-1
12 Bodemeister 4/1
11 Dialed In 4/1
10 Lookin at Lucky 3/1 actual off odds 6.30-1
09 I Want Revenge 3/1
08 Big Brown 3/1
07 Curlin 7/2
06 Brother Derek actual off odds 7.70-1
05 Bellamy Road 5/2
04 The Cliffs Edge 4/1 actual off odds 8.20-1
03 Empire Maker 6/5
02 Harlen Holiday 9/2
01 Point Given 9/5
00 Fusiachi Pegasus 9/5

Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year?
Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.
It might have been above 5/1 until Classic Empire's win. When you have a 2 year old champion coming off a big effort there naturally will be some benefit of a doubt.

Besides, in a race like this bettors tend to bunch instead of differentiate year to year. The favorite falls within a certain range no matter how dominant or vulnerable.

Battaglia similarly always seems to slot the favorite in the same small range and drop the second and third choices into the same territory.

I don't agree with Battaglia that Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are basically indistinguishable. IMO there is a clear gap in ability. That will certainly be a matchup water for me on Always Dreaming if the odds are comparable. Again, I don't see how anybody could back Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby if they didn't also have him in that very soft spot in the Wood. He basically just had to show up there.

Regardless, I appreciate that on racing forums the betting aspect is well known and basic mistakes are not made. Yesterday I was reading a football article that asserted Christian McCaffrey was "odds-on favorite" to be selected by one specific team. Sure.
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:35 pm

Jay Privman‏ @DRFPrivman
Connections of Conquest Mo Money say they will bypass Derby, point to Preakness, per publicist
peeptoad
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:51 pm

Blast. But that's an expensive nom fee...
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Treve
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:06 pm

Apollo wrote:
stark wrote:I think it's about time that we have a morning line favorite listed at 5/1, if not higher!

16 Nyquist 3/1
15 American Pharoah 5/2
14 California Chrome 5/2
13 Orb 7/2 actual off odds 5.40-1
12 Bodemeister 4/1
11 Dialed In 4/1
10 Lookin at Lucky 3/1 actual off odds 6.30-1
09 I Want Revenge 3/1
08 Big Brown 3/1
07 Curlin 7/2
06 Brother Derek actual off odds 7.70-1
05 Bellamy Road 5/2
04 The Cliffs Edge 4/1 actual off odds 8.20-1
03 Empire Maker 6/5
02 Harlen Holiday 9/2
01 Point Given 9/5
00 Fusiachi Pegasus 9/5

Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year?
Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.
It might have been above 5/1 until Classic Empire's win. When you have a 2 year old champion coming off a big effort there naturally will be some benefit of a doubt.

Besides, in a race like this bettors tend to bunch instead of differentiate year to year. The favorite falls within a certain range no matter how dominant or vulnerable.

Battaglia similarly always seems to slot the favorite in the same small range and drop the second and third choices into the same territory.

I don't agree with Battaglia that Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are basically indistinguishable. IMO there is a clear gap in ability. That will certainly be a matchup water for me on Always Dreaming if the odds are comparable. Again, I don't see how anybody could back Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby if they didn't also have him in that very soft spot in the Wood. He basically just had to show up there.

Regardless, I appreciate that on racing forums the betting aspect is well known and basic mistakes are not made. Yesterday I was reading a football article that asserted Christian McCaffrey was "odds-on favorite" to be selected by one specific team. Sure.
Sort of agree with you about Always Dreaming having a lot more natural talent and brilliance than Irish War Cry, however there's also a gap in experience and foundation, imho, which is probably what he's basing that statement on so while I personally rank Always Dreaming ahead of IWC I can see the rationale behind his statement. It's also quite possible his mind will change by the time the ML odds go up.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:05 pm

Lezcano named by Casse to ride State of Honor
Jose Lezcano has been named to ride State of Honor in the Kentucky Derby on May 6, trainer Mark Casse said Tuesday afternoon.

State of Honor, second most recently in the Florida Derby, had been ridden by Julien Leparoux, but Leparoux is committed to Casse's other Derby starter, champion Classic Empire, who won the Arkansas Derby last Saturday.
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36215
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Treve
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:21 pm

Well his fans were calling for a more aggressive rider.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Somnambulist
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:08 pm

In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
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Tessablue
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:47 pm

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
Agreed on Always Dreaming, any other year he might feel like an easy toss but the unknown factor is too much to ignore this year. I honestly think Gunnevera is the most consistent horse in the field- his Florida Derby wasn't pretty on the surface, but he basically did what he always does: he dropped back and made a big late run, but he hit the rail and ended up much too far back off a pace that wasn't closer-friendly. He's run four stakes races in a row that were decent at the very least, which is I think more than any other horse in the field can say. Girvin feels like a horse that I shouldn't be comfortable ignoring, but he's tough to read based on only four races. Is he a slow horse who has benefited from good setups, or is he genuinely moving forward? Wish I knew.

Off the top of my head, I'd say McCracken had the best excuse, as he had an abbreviated preparation coupled with a tough trip in the Bluegrass. Not sure how much he can be expected to move forward in the Derby though, his trainer is known for it but I don't see much evidence that he's moved forward at 3 (I'm pretty suspicious of the Davis). Classic Empire was coming off a layoff and got caught wide in the Holy Bull but he did end up close to a very slow pace. Irish War Cry had the softest trip imaginable in that race then folded when forced to press next out, but then he pressed nicely in the Wood, except the field was bad and the track was biased towards speed... so many mixed messages that I just have no idea what to do with. I'm also worried about the fact that he is getting only one work before the Derby and it will be at Fair Hill. At 6-1 or thereabouts, is he worth the risk?

Probably a good move by the connections of Conquest Mo Money, he will be very live in the Preakness.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:08 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
Agreed on Always Dreaming, any other year he might feel like an easy toss but the unknown factor is too much to ignore this year. I honestly think Gunnevera is the most consistent horse in the field- his Florida Derby wasn't pretty on the surface, but he basically did what he always does: he dropped back and made a big late run, but he hit the rail and ended up much too far back off a pace that wasn't closer-friendly. He's run four stakes races in a row that were decent at the very least, which is I think more than any other horse in the field can say. Girvin feels like a horse that I shouldn't be comfortable ignoring, but he's tough to read based on only four races. Is he a slow horse who has benefited from good setups, or is he genuinely moving forward? Wish I knew.

Off the top of my head, I'd say McCracken had the best excuse, as he had an abbreviated preparation coupled with a tough trip in the Bluegrass. Not sure how much he can be expected to move forward in the Derby though, his trainer is known for it but I don't see much evidence that he's moved forward at 3 (I'm pretty suspicious of the Davis). Classic Empire was coming off a layoff and got caught wide in the Holy Bull but he did end up close to a very slow pace. Irish War Cry had the softest trip imaginable in that race then folded when forced to press next out, but then he pressed nicely in the Wood, except the field was bad and the track was biased towards speed... so many mixed messages that I just have no idea what to do with. I'm also worried about the fact that he is getting only one work before the Derby and it will be at Fair Hill. At 6-1 or thereabouts, is he worth the risk?

Probably a good move by the connections of Conquest Mo Money, he will be very live in the Preakness.
He was running on an abscessed foot. Per Casse when they found the abscess it was estimated it was already present in the Holy Bull. I think that's a pretty decent excuse.

I don't however, know what to make of the fact McCraken was apparently completely wiped and exhausted after the Blue Grass and that his trainer thinks it's a good thing, vs Classic Empire not being tired one bit and his trainers also thinking that's a very good thing. For two horses coming off a long layoff and seeking some foundation/fitness, which is it?
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:23 pm

Javier Castellano now confirmed to ride Gunnevera in Kentucky Derby per his agent Mike Lakow and trainer Antonio Sano.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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ThreeMustangs
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:30 pm

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.
I think one of IWC's biggest selling points is his sire. Curlin has already had Preakness and Belmont winners and I think he'll eventually get a Derby winner, too. Why not this year? PoTN is obviously another proven classsic sire, so I'm not throwing CE out, either.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:55 pm

Mark Casse was interviewed on HRRN and when asked who he was most worried about he stated Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, as he believes those two's conditioners will know how to have them ready.
He did joke that he was relieved there would be no Bob Baffert in the Derby this year "I feel bad for him- well no actually I don't really feel bad, he's the toughest guy out there" :lol:
He also mentions that when Classic Empire will breeze, it will be something nice n' easy on the slower side by design, like his last work before the Arkansas Derby.
You can find the interview here.

Pletcher ready for another Kentucky Derby run.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping- ... y-run.aspx
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
With Anticipation
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Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:21 pm

Big Change to Kentucky Oaks Look for Jockeys

LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - This year there will be a big change to the Kentucky Oaks, and it’s one that you won’t miss. For the first time in its’ 143 year history, the jockeys will be wearing pink pants as part of Churchill Downs’ “Pink Out".

http://www.wave3.com/story/35203147/big ... or-jockeys
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Sparrow Castle
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Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:22 pm

^^So TB racing can change old traditions, lol. ^^

Durkin Joins West Point Partnership on Always Dreaming
Legendary track announcer Tom Durkin has joined the West Point Thoroughbreds partnership that owns a minority interest in GI Florida Derby hero and GI Kentucky Derby contender Always Dreaming (Bodemeister). In addition to West Point Thoroughbreds, the bay’s ownership group includes MeB Racing Stables LLC, Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables, St. Elias Stabless LLC and Siena Farm.

“I always wondered how it would feel to be in the paddock as an owner of a horse in the Kentucky Derby,” said Durkin. “Now, it’s surreal to think I could be in the winner’s circle. I’m grateful to the entire ownership group for the opportunity to own a part of a special horse.”
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/du ... -dreaming/
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:32 am

With Anticipation wrote:Big Change to Kentucky Oaks Look for Jockeys

LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - This year there will be a big change to the Kentucky Oaks, and it’s one that you won’t miss. For the first time in its’ 143 year history, the jockeys will be wearing pink pants as part of Churchill Downs’ “Pink Out".

http://www.wave3.com/story/35203147/big ... or-jockeys
Ick.

Why don't we do blue day on Saturday? You know, let's raise awareness for prostate cancer.

So I'm all for boy-power Saturday, with baby blue jockey pants and all the crowd wearing baby blue. Complete with 143 men taking part in their survivor's parade.
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Life At Zen
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:11 am

Fox Hill Farm has sold Battle of Midway to WinStar Farm and Don Alberto.
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peeptoad
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:06 pm

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36243
IRAP (Blue Grass winner): With Julien Leparoux back aboard, and with trainer Doug O'Neill on hand, the colt went a mile in 1:44. Starting at the 7-furlong pole on the clubhouse turn of this 1 1/16-mile oval, and going solo, Irap went in splits of 15, 29, 41.20, 53, 1:06, and 1:30 (clockers originally credited the colt with the 7-furlong time of 1:30, but O'Neill asked that it be recorded as a mile). All times were inordinately slow because of how easily the colt went early, which Turrell, a veteran Southern California clocker, noted is "standard operating procedure for O'Neill."
:?:
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Big Ten
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:08 pm

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
I think McCraken, Classic Empire, and Irish War Cry are pretty consistent in my eyes. McCraken and IWC only lost once in their career. The former had a bad trip and probably wasn't fully cranked ala Unbridled and Street Sense since Wilkes has been around those horses under Nafzger.

IWC had a questionable ride and result in the FOY but bounced back. I want to see IWC and Always Dreaming hook up early and see if IWC hangs for third like Dortmund did two years ago. They look so alike. While Classic Empire wasn't 100% in his recent loss and lost his rider in another.

I do agree with Matt Corothers that there is quite a drop off in talent after the Top 5 with a mish mash of different horses. But if you focus on the top 4-5 betting choices, they are actually pretty consistent running with a lone dud. Even California Chrome and American Pharoah lost prior to their Derby win.

The only 3YO this year that actually did impress me was Mastery though. I see another Shared Belief-like talent in him. Gotta love those Candy Rides. From Arrogate to Mastery, how lucky can Mike Smith and Bob Baffert be? I will continue to bet against Pletcher until his trainees win more Derbies. So AD backers, keep dreamin'...

I see 2011 and 2013 all over again with no real standouts. Non-Californian winner coming from off the pace. A California speedster won't win it this year or at least I hope not. I'm Californian but have so much love for the East.
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MySaladDays
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:14 pm

Big Ten wrote: I do agree with Matt Corothers that there is quite a drop off in talent after the Top 5 with a mish mash of different horses. But if you focus on the top 4-5 betting choices, they are actually pretty consistent
Running 1-1/6th, and usually ONE 1-1/8th. And not at CD, which many horses find "quirky" even though it is a pretty fair track. :D

The problem with the Derby is that some horses who cross the finish line 1st or 2nd didn't know they would/could, the betting public didn't, and even the trainers really don't know.

I attach myself to capping it pretty eagerly, as a hobby, as a brain exercize, and because I enjoy this time of year, reading other people's great insights.

As a risk/reward ratio, it's actually a lousy race to spend $$ on sometimes. :lol: so I don't take it too seriously.


That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year. :lol:


BTW, I am still stuck over a few horses, I think Gunnevera had a pretty terrible trip in the FL Derby, I am still trying to decide if I like him or IWC better, if anhybody wants to yak about it.
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:20 pm

KENTUCKY DERBY, OAKS WORKOUTS TO BE STREAMED LIVE ON TWITTER;
EXCLUSIVE 8:30-8:45 A.M. TRAINING WINDOW BEGINS SATURDAY
Churchill Downs Racetrack, in conjunction with TwinSpires.com, will provide live
online streaming of Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders’ workouts when the exclusive 8:30-8:45 a.m. (all times Eastern) training window begins Saturday in earnest.

The live stream presented by TwinSpires.com will be available at multiple sources including on Twitter via @KentuckyDerby and kentuckyderby.twitter.com; on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/kentuckyderby; and http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts/live.

The Twitter stream, available globally to logged-in and logged-out users, also will feature a timeline of Kentucky Derby-related tweets alongside the live video itself.

The live video will include graphics to identify each horse and Churchill Downs’ Joe Kristufek will provide commentary
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/w ... d_Live.pdf
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