2017 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

Post Reply
PJMIII
Posts: 9550
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:54 am

The 38th running of the Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs will replace Canada’s Grey S. (G3) on the list of 35-select races that comprise the 2016-17 “Road to the Kentucky Derby,” Churchill Downs officials announced Monday.

http://forum.turfnsport.com/newthread.p ... hread&f=11
peeptoad
Posts: 2641
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:16 am

Japanese races to award one Kentucky Derby berth (plus the points schedule for all races is at the end of the article; The Grey was eliminated this year in favor if the Sam Davis):

http://www.drf.com/news/japanese-races- ... erby-berth
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:17 am

peeptoad wrote:Japanese races to award one Kentucky Derby berth (plus the points schedule for all races is at the end of the article; The Grey was eliminated this year in favor if the Sam Davis):

http://www.drf.com/news/japanese-races- ... erby-berth
This seems pointless. Why do we need this?
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
peeptoad
Posts: 2641
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:27 am

Somnambulist wrote:
peeptoad wrote:Japanese races to award one Kentucky Derby berth (plus the points schedule for all races is at the end of the article; The Grey was eliminated this year in favor if the Sam Davis):

http://www.drf.com/news/japanese-races- ... erby-berth
This seems pointless. Why do we need this?
Because... Lani? :?:
User avatar
Northport
Posts: 1958
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:13 pm
Location: probably near the food

Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:33 am

Somnambulist wrote:
peeptoad wrote:Japanese races to award one Kentucky Derby berth (plus the points schedule for all races is at the end of the article; The Grey was eliminated this year in favor if the Sam Davis):

http://www.drf.com/news/japanese-races- ... erby-berth
This seems pointless. Why do we need this?
As a fan of Japanese racing.... I personally think it is a lot more fun/interesting to have a winning Japanese horse in the Derby than the American horse who was 4th in two American Derby preps. Will the Japanese horse win the Derby? Unlikely, but it could at least make the lead up to the race a little more interesting.
weeeeeeeee
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:51 am

Interesting to me would be if the horse actually has a shot, not the best chance to run 9th.

I would rather them get rid of an auto berth for this and the UAE Derby and then find a way to cap the field at 14.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4044
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:02 am

Somnambulist wrote:Interesting to me would be if the horse actually has a shot, not the best chance to run 9th.

I would rather them get rid of an auto berth for this and the UAE Derby and then find a way to cap the field at 14.
If the races are scheduled in Nov as two year olds and one in early 2017, that would actually give horses a shot at coming to North America and recovering from the mileage, bypassing the UAE Derby entirely. They may even have time to run in an additional prep stateside... determine if they should get on Lasix etc. Why wouldn't they have an actual chance in such a case?
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
peeptoad
Posts: 2641
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:03 pm

It might be worth noting (for what reason I'm not sure, maybe it merely has to do with the race timing and long transit time from Japan to KY?) that the Japanese race in November that's worth points is worth 4 times the points of any other 2yo race, including the BC Juvenile. It's the only 2yo race worth more than 10 pts for the winner.
I'm assuming the Japanese race slated early in the 3yo season will be worth 50 the same as the other mid-points races offered Stateside, but it's conceivable that a horse could win the 2yo race and have enough points to get into field without any other racing.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:47 pm

Treve wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Interesting to me would be if the horse actually has a shot, not the best chance to run 9th.

I would rather them get rid of an auto berth for this and the UAE Derby and then find a way to cap the field at 14.
If the races are scheduled in Nov as two year olds and one in early 2017, that would actually give horses a shot at coming to North America and recovering from the mileage, bypassing the UAE Derby entirely. They may even have time to run in an additional prep stateside... determine if they should get on Lasix etc. Why wouldn't they have an actual chance in such a case?
It's like me getting an A in algebra 101 and thinking I have what it takes to get a math PhD. There is a chance, I guess.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4044
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:28 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Interesting to me would be if the horse actually has a shot, not the best chance to run 9th.

I would rather them get rid of an auto berth for this and the UAE Derby and then find a way to cap the field at 14.
If the races are scheduled in Nov as two year olds and one in early 2017, that would actually give horses a shot at coming to North America and recovering from the mileage, bypassing the UAE Derby entirely. They may even have time to run in an additional prep stateside... determine if they should get on Lasix etc. Why wouldn't they have an actual chance in such a case?
It's like me getting an A in algebra 101 and thinking I have what it takes to get a math PhD. There is a chance, I guess.
I don't understand why though? Isn't that true of most colts attempting the TC trail? It's not like Japan doesn't have high quality Bloodstock. Training methods may not be entirely adapted for pure speed they tend to train more for distance, but it's not like they've never successfully ran on dirt when coming to the US before. And with connections increasingly investing not just in turf but dirt US bloodlines and breeding for it, I don't see what distinguishes them from US based colts aside from drugs and air mileage.
I'm not discounting your opinion, I am just curious to understand why you think that way.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BlindLucky
Posts: 3314
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:22 am
Location: North Carolina
Contact:

Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:49 pm

Depending on how "early in 2017" the second race in Japan is run, this just seems like defeating the entire purpose of the point system. They are essentially 10-point races in the US up until March. They put the point system in place so that a horse couldn't win the Delta Jackpot--or the BC Juvenile, for that matter--bank all that graded stakes cash as a 2-yr-old, and get into the Derby no matter what their form at 3 happened to be. This new thing is saying that a horse is guaranteed a slot based on a 2-yr-old race and an early 3-yr-old race, which is what they've tried to avoid here in the US.

It's all about the marketing, I guess. A lot of people went gaga over Lani, so they're hoping for that sort of hype again.
Photos from my racing travels: ThoroughbredJourney.com
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:52 pm

BlindLucky wrote:Depending on how "early in 2017" the second race in Japan is run, this just seems like defeating the entire purpose of the point system. They put it in place so that a horse couldn't win the Delta Jackpot--or the BC Juvenile, for that matter--bank all that graded stakes cash as a 2-yr-old, and get into the Derby no matter what their form at 3 happened to be. This is saying that a horse is guaranteed a slot based on a 2-yr-old race and an early 3-yr-old race, which is what they've tried to avoid here in the US.

It's all about the marketing, I guess. A lot of people went gaga over Lani, so they're hoping for that sort of hype again.
Who that actually bet went crazy over Lani? Or was it just a bunch of fan girls liking photos? I mean, attention is attention, which is good, but still. If I were US based connections I would be pissed that more horse is here running against the elite of the dirt world while some horse in a nation with an inferior product gets automatic entry.

I haven't seen one single Japanese horse come over here and train and perform at a level that suggests it'll be winning the Derby.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
BlindLucky
Posts: 3314
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:22 am
Location: North Carolina
Contact:

Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:04 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Who that actually bet went crazy over Lani?
No one. It was all about the media (social media in particular) and a quirky horse that drove headlines and grabbed attention. Not sure that there would have been as much hype had Lani not been Lani, from a personality perspective.
Photos from my racing travels: ThoroughbredJourney.com
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4044
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:42 pm

BlindLucky wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Who that actually bet went crazy over Lani?
No one. It was all about the media (social media in particular) and a quirky horse that drove headlines and grabbed attention. Not sure that there would have been as much hype had Lani not been Lani, from a personality perspective.
I think the article hit the nail on the head - they're trying to reach the Japanese bettors market. Doesn't mean the Japanese will bet on Japan based horses, but they'll be more interested in the race, probably.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
carole
Posts: 2300
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:57 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:14 pm

Lani didn't run bad in the Derby and kept improving his placings throughout the TC trail. He beat many US horses. I don't think he's an 'inferior product'.
User avatar
Curtis
Posts: 781
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:17 am
Location: Monroe, WA
Contact:

Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:53 pm

carole wrote:Lani didn't run bad in the Derby and kept improving his placings throughout the TC trail. He beat many US horses. I don't think he's an 'inferior product'.
Do you think he would have qualified for the Derby had he prepped for it in the USA?
carole
Posts: 2300
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:57 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:21 pm

Curtis wrote:
carole wrote:Lani didn't run bad in the Derby and kept improving his placings throughout the TC trail. He beat many US horses. I don't think he's an 'inferior product'.
Do you think he would have qualified for the Derby had he prepped for it in the USA?
I think its possible. He would have probably raced in quite a few preps and I reckon he could have picked up place/show points like about 1/3 of the field did anyway.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:48 pm

carole wrote:Lani didn't run bad in the Derby and kept improving his placings throughout the TC trail. He beat many US horses. I don't think he's an 'inferior product'.
I never said anything specifically about the horse? Can anyone really argue that Japanese dirt racing is an overall better product at the moment?
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
User avatar
Flanders
Posts: 2657
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:01 pm

Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:05 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
carole wrote:Lani didn't run bad in the Derby and kept improving his placings throughout the TC trail. He beat many US horses. I don't think he's an 'inferior product'.
I never said anything specifically about the horse? Can anyone really argue that Japanese dirt racing is an overall better product at the moment?
Lani isn't a Japan bred. He was bred in the US.

They don't focus enough on dirt racing in Japan to have a superior product. They breed for turf. So unless they start sending more mares over or buying young horses for the Kentucky Derby in mind, the horses are just going to finish up the track.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4044
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:10 am

Flanders wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:
carole wrote:Lani didn't run bad in the Derby and kept improving his placings throughout the TC trail. He beat many US horses. I don't think he's an 'inferior product'.
I never said anything specifically about the horse? Can anyone really argue that Japanese dirt racing is an overall better product at the moment?
Lani isn't a Japan bred. He was bred in the US.

They don't focus enough on dirt racing in Japan to have a superior product. They breed for turf. So unless they start sending more mares over or buying young horses for the Kentucky Derby in mind, the horses are just going to finish up the track.
I would think, if Churchill wants to offer them a spot in the Derby, that Japanese owners and breeders may necessarily be more inclined to breed/train/buy for quality dirt horses.

They seem to be investing in more dirt mares from here, and like Lani's owner some are even trying to actually get some home bases Stateside. (I still don't know why, since Lani was born in North America, they had him shipped to Japan to race, then to Dubai then back to the US, then back to Japan). And they've consistently purchased some of the big dirt stallions here. Some of which failed to produce Turf runners of significance (Empire Maker for example- though his progeny and grand get are doing well on dirt), but others who could've been just as good on either surface if the focus had been there. It's not like the bloodlines are absent.
To my eye it is one of the few countries with an already significant racing industry, that seems to be expanding rather than contracting. Reading over some of the articles written about it, it certainly looks like they're headed in a direction to add for more dirt.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Post Reply