2017 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

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Tessablue
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:41 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Big Ten wrote: I do agree with Matt Corothers that there is quite a drop off in talent after the Top 5 with a mish mash of different horses. But if you focus on the top 4-5 betting choices, they are actually pretty consistent
I attach myself to capping it pretty eagerly, as a hobby, as a brain exercize, and because I enjoy this time of year, reading other people's great insights.

As a risk/reward ratio, it's actually a lousy race to spend $$ on sometimes. :lol: so I don't take it too seriously.

BTW, I am still stuck over a few horses, I think Gunnevera had a pretty terrible trip in the FL Derby, I am still trying to decide if I like him or IWC better, if anhybody wants to yak about it.
I greatly enjoy it as an exercise/ hobby too. There's no other race for which so much information is available, and its payouts are high enough that it's fun to dream big. One of my life goals is to hit the Derby superfecta someday, but my year-to-year goal is just to learn and get better. Hopefully, after a few decades of learning I'll actually know what I'm doing.

I figure people are pretty tired of me talking about Gunnevera, but I'm happy to talk about him vs. Irish War Cry if you like. They are opposites in a lot of ways, I think.
peeptoad
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:45 pm

Re IWC vs Gunn
Engage me... I'm on my 90 minute commute home.
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ElPrado2
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:48 pm

Stop the presses!

Irap ran a mile? Does that mean O'Neill
is trying to steal something or the horse looked like he lost 2 front legs on the turn?
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ElPrado2
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:00 pm

I'm getting so confused by not having Baffert's hair blowing in the wind to watch that I can't read any more. :roll:
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:10 pm

peeptoad wrote:Re IWC vs Gunn
Engage me... I'm on my 90 minute commute home.
Gross... well I'm happy to help pass the time, for me it sort of boils down to reliability. I think Gunnevera is a very well-known quantity at this point, whereas IWC could potentially be a more brilliant horse but also has more questions of consistency and ability to handle adversity. Gunnevera is a consistent deep closer, which is a very rare thing, and he reminds me a lot of (pre-Derby) Exaggerator in that he had a good amount of 2yo class, moved up at 3, and always fires his shot. Deep closers have to contend with tough trips, especially in a 20 horse field, but he ran into trouble in both the Holy Bull and FL Derby but kept running. I do love a horse like Orb who can close at Gulfstream, which has a very short stretch compared to Churchill. Gunnevera genuinely finishes quickly, even against slow paces, has performed well across many different tracks, and has a lot of distance in his pedigree. He's by far the horse I feel most confident evaluating, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't put in a good effort, even if his top-end performance is a little lower than some of these. I can't really say the same about any other horse in the field.

Which leads me to Irish War Cry, who is a lot tougher for me to handle because he is very good when he gets his setup, but I'm not certain how broad his definition of "setup" is. He had a tremendously soft trip in the Holy Bull, lost his mind when he had to contend for the lead in the FOY, then showed considerable maturity in the Wood when he tracked off a strong pace. I'm not terribly worried about his come-home time in that race, because the track wasn't quick and they went pretty fast early, but I there was a speed bias that day and Battalion Runner was terrible. How will he react when he has to contend with multiple horses in front of him? What if he ends up inside horses or takes dirt? I think he has literally never run inside horses in his entire career, and given his strong adverse reaction to pressing horses in the FOY, I don't know how he'll react to something new. There's also the question of his long breaks between races and works. I guess in summary, to me he's the opposite of Gunnevera because although he has the potential for brilliance, I have no idea what to expect from him. Is he worth a shot at 7 or 8-1? I'm just not sure.

Edited to say that IWC did close from pretty far back in his maiden, but maiden races are weird and I'm basing these observations on his most recent starts.
Last edited by Tessablue on Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:18 pm

Battle of Midway isn't the only Derby hopeful going through some ownership changes.

Bode Miller Buys Interest in Fast and Accurate
Olympic gold medalist Bode Miller has purchased an interest in Kendall Hansen’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) hopeful Fast and Accurate, it was announced April 21.
Trained by Mike Maker and bred in Pennsylvania by John Penn, Fast and Accurate won the March 25 JACK Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park to earn his spot in the Kentucky Derby. The colt is among the only U.S. crop sired by Hansen’s homebred namesake, 2011 Eclipse champion 2-year-old male Hansen.

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... d-accurate

Reading through the article, all the ownership entities listed made my eyes glaze over. :lol:
Somnambulist
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:22 pm

Gunn went backwards in his last and doesn't win a lot. Well, a lot for horses that haven't taxed a lot

Didn't he lose weight? I'm not a fan of closers in this race so I'm passing.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
interco
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:14 pm

I'm not a fan of speed in this race. Like Tessablue says Gunnevera closes consistently and there will be enough speed to set him up. He didn't really train hard into Fla. Derby ran his race and Classic Empire will still be an underlay in my book. Throw in the Hoist The Flag line which I love so I'm all in on Gunn.
middleground
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:49 pm

MySaladDays wrote:

That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year. :lol:

FWIW, Mr. Hot Stuff--15th that day behind Mine That Bird--is running over the hurdles this weekend at Middleburg.
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Miss Woodford
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:53 pm

middleground wrote:
MySaladDays wrote:

That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year. :lol:

FWIW, Mr. Hot Stuff--15th that day behind Mine That Bird--is running over the hurdles this weekend at Middleburg.
Mr. Hot Stuff is a *Grade 1 winner* over hurdles, no less. Helps that he's got a steeplechase trainer (Jack Fisher) who worked to build up his stamina as opposed to his former trainer Todd Pletcher who trains his runners like Quarter Horses.
Somnambulist
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:55 pm

I'm sure Pletcher is sad about how he does things when he counts his millions.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Miss Woodford
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:57 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I'm sure Pletcher is sad about how he does things when he counts his millions.
I'm not saying he's a bad trainer, but there's a reason he's one-for-a-gazillion in the Kentucky Derby.
Somnambulist
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:16 pm

Miss Woodford wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:I'm sure Pletcher is sad about how he does things when he counts his millions.
I'm not saying he's a bad trainer, but there's a reason he's one-for-a-gazillion in the Kentucky Derby.
Bad horses that he's forced to run? Comments like this don't make sense to me.

Good for him anyways. The Derby is powerfully overrated.
It's hard to be at the top.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
BigCountry
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:32 pm

Miss Woodford wrote:
middleground wrote:
MySaladDays wrote:

That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year. :lol:

FWIW, Mr. Hot Stuff--15th that day behind Mine That Bird--is running over the hurdles this weekend at Middleburg.
Mr. Hot Stuff is a *Grade 1 winner* over hurdles, no less. Helps that he's got a steeplechase trainer (Jack Fisher) who worked to build up his stamina as opposed to his former trainer Todd Pletcher who trains his runners like Quarter Horses.
Eoin Harty trained Mr. Hot Stuff...
tcw
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Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:51 am

Miss Woodford wrote:I'm not saying he's a bad trainer, but there's a reason he's one-for-a-gazillion in the Kentucky Derby.
Agreed. Facts are facts, and of the 45 horses he's saddled in the Derby, only one has come home first while some 32 have finished 9th or worse. Sure, he's lost a couple of really good horses to injury through the years such as Algorithms Eskendereya, but so have other trainers. Imo, those 4 and 5F works just aren't a recipe for success in a race like the KD. Furthermore, his runners have tended to perform better with more rest which the Derby trail doesn't lend itself toward.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps/g/p ... -woes/984/
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:32 pm

Twitter chat:

Mark Johnson‏ @CommentatorMark
My understanding here in US, is it will very shortly be confirmed in France, that Thunder Snow will run in the KY Derby & C Soumillon rides

Derby News‏ @KentuckyDerbyCJ
Cloud Computing won't run in Kentucky Derby; Asmussen's Untrapped now No. 20 on points list: http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sp ... 100786826/
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:49 pm

While I think Thunder Snow is a quality colt, IMHO he possibly has three marks against him. IIRC, his sire, Helmet, was best at a mile; not prepping in the US hasn't been a recipe for success; and Soumillon stays on. He's a fine rider, but not exactly well-schooled in riding Churchill, let alone in the 20-horse Derby madhouse.
I guess that's the question; is it more important to keep a rider who is familiar with the horse, or to use a jockey who is familiar with the track/race/American pace style?
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Treve
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Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:09 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:While I think Thunder Snow is a quality colt, IMHO he possibly has three marks against him. IIRC, his sire, Helmet, was best at a mile; not prepping in the US hasn't been a recipe for success; and Soumillon stays on. He's a fine rider, but not exactly well-schooled in riding Churchill, let alone in the 20-horse Derby madhouse.
I guess that's the question; is it more important to keep a rider who is familiar with the horse, or to use a jockey who is familiar with the track/race/American pace style?
Imho, depends on the horse. You've got a horse like Classic Empire who will dump a strange rider out of the gate or a quirky horse like Beholder who dislikes the stick according Gary, and then you have a horse like Pharoah whom I'm sure any of the top jockeys could have piloted to success.
it also probably depends on the track as well, some are trickier than others. I suppose there is also a possibility that Soumillon might get some rides the day before and on the undercard just to familiarize himself with the track.
As for the 20 horse madness, Soumillon has ridden in Japan, successfully, he is no stranger to a full field.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
MySaladDays
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Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:39 pm

stark wrote:Javier Castellano now confirmed to ride Gunnevera in Kentucky Derby per his agent Mike Lakow and trainer Antonio Sano.
Excellent!
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Sparrow Castle
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Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:20 pm

KY Derby Contenders@DerbyContenders
TVG reporting that J Boys Echo jock Albarado fears he has suffered a broken leg in KEE spill.

Ray Paulick@raypaulick
Ray Paulick Retweeted KY Derby Contenders
Head-on replay shows right leg of his mount may have struck Robbie Albarado's leg after he was thrown at start.

I hope this turns out better than it sounds. The horse Chiltern Street is fine. Stumbled and dropped Robbie out of the gate and finished the race.
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