2017 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

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ThreeMustangs
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:30 pm

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.
I think one of IWC's biggest selling points is his sire. Curlin has already had Preakness and Belmont winners and I think he'll eventually get a Derby winner, too. Why not this year? PoTN is obviously another proven classsic sire, so I'm not throwing CE out, either.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:55 pm

Mark Casse was interviewed on HRRN and when asked who he was most worried about he stated Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, as he believes those two's conditioners will know how to have them ready.
He did joke that he was relieved there would be no Bob Baffert in the Derby this year "I feel bad for him- well no actually I don't really feel bad, he's the toughest guy out there" :lol:
He also mentions that when Classic Empire will breeze, it will be something nice n' easy on the slower side by design, like his last work before the Arkansas Derby.
You can find the interview here.

Pletcher ready for another Kentucky Derby run.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping- ... y-run.aspx
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
With Anticipation
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Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:21 pm

Big Change to Kentucky Oaks Look for Jockeys

LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - This year there will be a big change to the Kentucky Oaks, and it’s one that you won’t miss. For the first time in its’ 143 year history, the jockeys will be wearing pink pants as part of Churchill Downs’ “Pink Out".

http://www.wave3.com/story/35203147/big ... or-jockeys
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Sparrow Castle
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Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:22 pm

^^So TB racing can change old traditions, lol. ^^

Durkin Joins West Point Partnership on Always Dreaming
Legendary track announcer Tom Durkin has joined the West Point Thoroughbreds partnership that owns a minority interest in GI Florida Derby hero and GI Kentucky Derby contender Always Dreaming (Bodemeister). In addition to West Point Thoroughbreds, the bay’s ownership group includes MeB Racing Stables LLC, Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables, St. Elias Stabless LLC and Siena Farm.

“I always wondered how it would feel to be in the paddock as an owner of a horse in the Kentucky Derby,” said Durkin. “Now, it’s surreal to think I could be in the winner’s circle. I’m grateful to the entire ownership group for the opportunity to own a part of a special horse.”
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/du ... -dreaming/
Admin
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:32 am

With Anticipation wrote:Big Change to Kentucky Oaks Look for Jockeys

LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - This year there will be a big change to the Kentucky Oaks, and it’s one that you won’t miss. For the first time in its’ 143 year history, the jockeys will be wearing pink pants as part of Churchill Downs’ “Pink Out".

http://www.wave3.com/story/35203147/big ... or-jockeys
Ick.

Why don't we do blue day on Saturday? You know, let's raise awareness for prostate cancer.

So I'm all for boy-power Saturday, with baby blue jockey pants and all the crowd wearing baby blue. Complete with 143 men taking part in their survivor's parade.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
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Life At Zen
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:11 am

Fox Hill Farm has sold Battle of Midway to WinStar Farm and Don Alberto.
A R R O G A T E
Paradise Woods, Lady Eli, Songbird, Ziconic
Gormley, Royal Mo, Shaman Ghost, Constellation

Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
peeptoad
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:06 pm

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36243
IRAP (Blue Grass winner): With Julien Leparoux back aboard, and with trainer Doug O'Neill on hand, the colt went a mile in 1:44. Starting at the 7-furlong pole on the clubhouse turn of this 1 1/16-mile oval, and going solo, Irap went in splits of 15, 29, 41.20, 53, 1:06, and 1:30 (clockers originally credited the colt with the 7-furlong time of 1:30, but O'Neill asked that it be recorded as a mile). All times were inordinately slow because of how easily the colt went early, which Turrell, a veteran Southern California clocker, noted is "standard operating procedure for O'Neill."
:?:
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Big Ten
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:08 pm

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
I think McCraken, Classic Empire, and Irish War Cry are pretty consistent in my eyes. McCraken and IWC only lost once in their career. The former had a bad trip and probably wasn't fully cranked ala Unbridled and Street Sense since Wilkes has been around those horses under Nafzger.

IWC had a questionable ride and result in the FOY but bounced back. I want to see IWC and Always Dreaming hook up early and see if IWC hangs for third like Dortmund did two years ago. They look so alike. While Classic Empire wasn't 100% in his recent loss and lost his rider in another.

I do agree with Matt Corothers that there is quite a drop off in talent after the Top 5 with a mish mash of different horses. But if you focus on the top 4-5 betting choices, they are actually pretty consistent running with a lone dud. Even California Chrome and American Pharoah lost prior to their Derby win.

The only 3YO this year that actually did impress me was Mastery though. I see another Shared Belief-like talent in him. Gotta love those Candy Rides. From Arrogate to Mastery, how lucky can Mike Smith and Bob Baffert be? I will continue to bet against Pletcher until his trainees win more Derbies. So AD backers, keep dreamin'...

I see 2011 and 2013 all over again with no real standouts. Non-Californian winner coming from off the pace. A California speedster won't win it this year or at least I hope not. I'm Californian but have so much love for the East.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
MySaladDays
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:14 pm

Big Ten wrote: I do agree with Matt Corothers that there is quite a drop off in talent after the Top 5 with a mish mash of different horses. But if you focus on the top 4-5 betting choices, they are actually pretty consistent
Running 1-1/6th, and usually ONE 1-1/8th. And not at CD, which many horses find "quirky" even though it is a pretty fair track. :D

The problem with the Derby is that some horses who cross the finish line 1st or 2nd didn't know they would/could, the betting public didn't, and even the trainers really don't know.

I attach myself to capping it pretty eagerly, as a hobby, as a brain exercize, and because I enjoy this time of year, reading other people's great insights.

As a risk/reward ratio, it's actually a lousy race to spend $$ on sometimes. :lol: so I don't take it too seriously.


That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year. :lol:


BTW, I am still stuck over a few horses, I think Gunnevera had a pretty terrible trip in the FL Derby, I am still trying to decide if I like him or IWC better, if anhybody wants to yak about it.
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:20 pm

KENTUCKY DERBY, OAKS WORKOUTS TO BE STREAMED LIVE ON TWITTER;
EXCLUSIVE 8:30-8:45 A.M. TRAINING WINDOW BEGINS SATURDAY
Churchill Downs Racetrack, in conjunction with TwinSpires.com, will provide live
online streaming of Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders’ workouts when the exclusive 8:30-8:45 a.m. (all times Eastern) training window begins Saturday in earnest.

The live stream presented by TwinSpires.com will be available at multiple sources including on Twitter via @KentuckyDerby and kentuckyderby.twitter.com; on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/kentuckyderby; and http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts/live.

The Twitter stream, available globally to logged-in and logged-out users, also will feature a timeline of Kentucky Derby-related tweets alongside the live video itself.

The live video will include graphics to identify each horse and Churchill Downs’ Joe Kristufek will provide commentary
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/w ... d_Live.pdf
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:41 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Big Ten wrote: I do agree with Matt Corothers that there is quite a drop off in talent after the Top 5 with a mish mash of different horses. But if you focus on the top 4-5 betting choices, they are actually pretty consistent
I attach myself to capping it pretty eagerly, as a hobby, as a brain exercize, and because I enjoy this time of year, reading other people's great insights.

As a risk/reward ratio, it's actually a lousy race to spend $$ on sometimes. :lol: so I don't take it too seriously.

BTW, I am still stuck over a few horses, I think Gunnevera had a pretty terrible trip in the FL Derby, I am still trying to decide if I like him or IWC better, if anhybody wants to yak about it.
I greatly enjoy it as an exercise/ hobby too. There's no other race for which so much information is available, and its payouts are high enough that it's fun to dream big. One of my life goals is to hit the Derby superfecta someday, but my year-to-year goal is just to learn and get better. Hopefully, after a few decades of learning I'll actually know what I'm doing.

I figure people are pretty tired of me talking about Gunnevera, but I'm happy to talk about him vs. Irish War Cry if you like. They are opposites in a lot of ways, I think.
peeptoad
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:45 pm

Re IWC vs Gunn
Engage me... I'm on my 90 minute commute home.
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ElPrado2
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:48 pm

Stop the presses!

Irap ran a mile? Does that mean O'Neill
is trying to steal something or the horse looked like he lost 2 front legs on the turn?
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ElPrado2
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:00 pm

I'm getting so confused by not having Baffert's hair blowing in the wind to watch that I can't read any more. :roll:
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:10 pm

peeptoad wrote:Re IWC vs Gunn
Engage me... I'm on my 90 minute commute home.
Gross... well I'm happy to help pass the time, for me it sort of boils down to reliability. I think Gunnevera is a very well-known quantity at this point, whereas IWC could potentially be a more brilliant horse but also has more questions of consistency and ability to handle adversity. Gunnevera is a consistent deep closer, which is a very rare thing, and he reminds me a lot of (pre-Derby) Exaggerator in that he had a good amount of 2yo class, moved up at 3, and always fires his shot. Deep closers have to contend with tough trips, especially in a 20 horse field, but he ran into trouble in both the Holy Bull and FL Derby but kept running. I do love a horse like Orb who can close at Gulfstream, which has a very short stretch compared to Churchill. Gunnevera genuinely finishes quickly, even against slow paces, has performed well across many different tracks, and has a lot of distance in his pedigree. He's by far the horse I feel most confident evaluating, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't put in a good effort, even if his top-end performance is a little lower than some of these. I can't really say the same about any other horse in the field.

Which leads me to Irish War Cry, who is a lot tougher for me to handle because he is very good when he gets his setup, but I'm not certain how broad his definition of "setup" is. He had a tremendously soft trip in the Holy Bull, lost his mind when he had to contend for the lead in the FOY, then showed considerable maturity in the Wood when he tracked off a strong pace. I'm not terribly worried about his come-home time in that race, because the track wasn't quick and they went pretty fast early, but I there was a speed bias that day and Battalion Runner was terrible. How will he react when he has to contend with multiple horses in front of him? What if he ends up inside horses or takes dirt? I think he has literally never run inside horses in his entire career, and given his strong adverse reaction to pressing horses in the FOY, I don't know how he'll react to something new. There's also the question of his long breaks between races and works. I guess in summary, to me he's the opposite of Gunnevera because although he has the potential for brilliance, I have no idea what to expect from him. Is he worth a shot at 7 or 8-1? I'm just not sure.

Edited to say that IWC did close from pretty far back in his maiden, but maiden races are weird and I'm basing these observations on his most recent starts.
Last edited by Tessablue on Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:18 pm

Battle of Midway isn't the only Derby hopeful going through some ownership changes.

Bode Miller Buys Interest in Fast and Accurate
Olympic gold medalist Bode Miller has purchased an interest in Kendall Hansen’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) hopeful Fast and Accurate, it was announced April 21.
Trained by Mike Maker and bred in Pennsylvania by John Penn, Fast and Accurate won the March 25 JACK Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park to earn his spot in the Kentucky Derby. The colt is among the only U.S. crop sired by Hansen’s homebred namesake, 2011 Eclipse champion 2-year-old male Hansen.

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... d-accurate

Reading through the article, all the ownership entities listed made my eyes glaze over. :lol:
Somnambulist
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:22 pm

Gunn went backwards in his last and doesn't win a lot. Well, a lot for horses that haven't taxed a lot

Didn't he lose weight? I'm not a fan of closers in this race so I'm passing.
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interco
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:14 pm

I'm not a fan of speed in this race. Like Tessablue says Gunnevera closes consistently and there will be enough speed to set him up. He didn't really train hard into Fla. Derby ran his race and Classic Empire will still be an underlay in my book. Throw in the Hoist The Flag line which I love so I'm all in on Gunn.
middleground
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:49 pm

MySaladDays wrote:

That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year. :lol:

FWIW, Mr. Hot Stuff--15th that day behind Mine That Bird--is running over the hurdles this weekend at Middleburg.
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Miss Woodford
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Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:53 pm

middleground wrote:
MySaladDays wrote:

That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year. :lol:

FWIW, Mr. Hot Stuff--15th that day behind Mine That Bird--is running over the hurdles this weekend at Middleburg.
Mr. Hot Stuff is a *Grade 1 winner* over hurdles, no less. Helps that he's got a steeplechase trainer (Jack Fisher) who worked to build up his stamina as opposed to his former trainer Todd Pletcher who trains his runners like Quarter Horses.
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