2017 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

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Life At Zen
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Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:12 pm

I wish Royal Mo was closer to an entry in the gate. Looks like he won't make it.
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Paradise Woods, Lady Eli, Songbird, Ziconic
Gormley, Royal Mo, Shaman Ghost, Constellation

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But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
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Treve
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Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:16 pm

State of Honor also worked a half mile in :49.80 under exercise rider E.J. Bowler, with splits in :12 and :24 2/5 and a gallop out for five furlongs in 1:02.
Per Casse it was supposed to be an easy laid back move, since he ran just recently, and would do more next week.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Sparrow Castle
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Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:17 pm

Steve Byk‏ @Steve_Byk
Steve Byk Retweeted TwinSpires.com
Excellent Derby pecking order summary by @GallantFox1930..

Kentucky Derby bubble horses await Thunder Snow, Conquest Mo Money decisions
http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017/4/1 ... -decisions
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ElPrado2
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Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:06 pm

Hence was feeling his oats this morning.
5 f in 1:00.40. 1/16
stark
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Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:37 pm

Trainer Chad Brown on Monday said he is “leaning towards passing” the Kentucky Derby with Cloud Computing, a decision that has implications regarding the potential field for the May 6 Derby at Churchill Downs.

http://www.drf.com/news/cloud-computing ... ucky-derby
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
peeptoad
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Mon Apr 17, 2017 4:51 pm

imho that's a wise move re: Cloud Computing. It would be asking a hell of a lot considering his lack of foundation and he's still eligible for far easier spots.
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Treve
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Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:09 pm

Classic Empire: Per Norman Casse (via the courier-journal), "The horse came out of the race in really good order and had a pretty unremarkable trip here from Arkansas this morning. He seems very happy, and we're all very happy."
The colt will get a few days off before getting back to galloping later this week and is expected at this point in time, to have his final workout before the Kentucky Derby on April 28 or 29.
Casse added that he's confident the Arkansas Derby didn't take too much out of Classic Empire.
"Going back to the test barn and watching him cool out, he did not seem tired," Casse said. "I think we are going to bring over a fresh, healthy horse."

J Boys Echo: worked this morning at Churchill for the first time since the Blue Grass. He recorded a half-mile move in :49 1/5 for trainer Dale Romans. The 3-year-old Mineshaft colt, who won the March 4 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack, began his workout at the three-furlong pole under Tammy Fox and recorded splits of :12 1/5, :24 3/5 and :36 4/5.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Treve
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Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:47 pm

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sp ... 100544384/
Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia saw enough from Classic Empire in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby that he’s prepared to make him the favorite for the May 6 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

“I was really impressed with the way Classic Empire was able to come back like he did in a 12-horse field and run such an awesome race,” Battaglia said. “I think he’ll be cranked up for the Derby. I think he will be the favorite.”
" I [still] think he has more talent than all of them. For his first race at a mile and an eighth, he did everything good horses do.”

Battaglia said Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming and Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry could be co-second choices for the Kentucky Derby.
“Those two are close,” Battaglia said. “The rest of them, I don’t see it.”
The odds will depend on how they train, and how they're doing by May 3rd after the draw.
Since the points system was instated, the M-L favourite has won every renewal of the Kentucky Derby.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:39 pm

I think it's about time that we have a morning line favorite listed at 5/1, if not higher!

16 Nyquist 3/1
15 American Pharoah 5/2
14 California Chrome 5/2
13 Orb 7/2 actual off odds 5.40-1
12 Bodemeister 4/1
11 Dialed In 4/1
10 Lookin at Lucky 3/1 actual off odds 6.30-1
09 I Want Revenge 3/1
08 Big Brown 3/1
07 Curlin 7/2
06 Brother Derek actual off odds 7.70-1
05 Bellamy Road 5/2
04 The Cliffs Edge 4/1 actual off odds 8.20-1
03 Empire Maker 6/5
02 Harlen Holiday 9/2
01 Point Given 9/5
00 Fusiachi Pegasus 9/5

Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year?
Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:37 pm

McCraken: showed composure before and during his half-mile drill in :47 4/5. After clocking splits of :12 3/5, :24 3/5, and :36 2/5, McCraken galloped out big in 1:00 and 1:13 2/5 while staying glued to the rail.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Apollo
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:48 pm

stark wrote:I think it's about time that we have a morning line favorite listed at 5/1, if not higher!

16 Nyquist 3/1
15 American Pharoah 5/2
14 California Chrome 5/2
13 Orb 7/2 actual off odds 5.40-1
12 Bodemeister 4/1
11 Dialed In 4/1
10 Lookin at Lucky 3/1 actual off odds 6.30-1
09 I Want Revenge 3/1
08 Big Brown 3/1
07 Curlin 7/2
06 Brother Derek actual off odds 7.70-1
05 Bellamy Road 5/2
04 The Cliffs Edge 4/1 actual off odds 8.20-1
03 Empire Maker 6/5
02 Harlen Holiday 9/2
01 Point Given 9/5
00 Fusiachi Pegasus 9/5

Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year?
Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.
It might have been above 5/1 until Classic Empire's win. When you have a 2 year old champion coming off a big effort there naturally will be some benefit of a doubt.

Besides, in a race like this bettors tend to bunch instead of differentiate year to year. The favorite falls within a certain range no matter how dominant or vulnerable.

Battaglia similarly always seems to slot the favorite in the same small range and drop the second and third choices into the same territory.

I don't agree with Battaglia that Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are basically indistinguishable. IMO there is a clear gap in ability. That will certainly be a matchup water for me on Always Dreaming if the odds are comparable. Again, I don't see how anybody could back Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby if they didn't also have him in that very soft spot in the Wood. He basically just had to show up there.

Regardless, I appreciate that on racing forums the betting aspect is well known and basic mistakes are not made. Yesterday I was reading a football article that asserted Christian McCaffrey was "odds-on favorite" to be selected by one specific team. Sure.
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:35 pm

Jay Privman‏ @DRFPrivman
Connections of Conquest Mo Money say they will bypass Derby, point to Preakness, per publicist
peeptoad
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:51 pm

Blast. But that's an expensive nom fee...
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Treve
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:06 pm

Apollo wrote:
stark wrote:I think it's about time that we have a morning line favorite listed at 5/1, if not higher!

16 Nyquist 3/1
15 American Pharoah 5/2
14 California Chrome 5/2
13 Orb 7/2 actual off odds 5.40-1
12 Bodemeister 4/1
11 Dialed In 4/1
10 Lookin at Lucky 3/1 actual off odds 6.30-1
09 I Want Revenge 3/1
08 Big Brown 3/1
07 Curlin 7/2
06 Brother Derek actual off odds 7.70-1
05 Bellamy Road 5/2
04 The Cliffs Edge 4/1 actual off odds 8.20-1
03 Empire Maker 6/5
02 Harlen Holiday 9/2
01 Point Given 9/5
00 Fusiachi Pegasus 9/5

Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year?
Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.
It might have been above 5/1 until Classic Empire's win. When you have a 2 year old champion coming off a big effort there naturally will be some benefit of a doubt.

Besides, in a race like this bettors tend to bunch instead of differentiate year to year. The favorite falls within a certain range no matter how dominant or vulnerable.

Battaglia similarly always seems to slot the favorite in the same small range and drop the second and third choices into the same territory.

I don't agree with Battaglia that Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are basically indistinguishable. IMO there is a clear gap in ability. That will certainly be a matchup water for me on Always Dreaming if the odds are comparable. Again, I don't see how anybody could back Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby if they didn't also have him in that very soft spot in the Wood. He basically just had to show up there.

Regardless, I appreciate that on racing forums the betting aspect is well known and basic mistakes are not made. Yesterday I was reading a football article that asserted Christian McCaffrey was "odds-on favorite" to be selected by one specific team. Sure.
Sort of agree with you about Always Dreaming having a lot more natural talent and brilliance than Irish War Cry, however there's also a gap in experience and foundation, imho, which is probably what he's basing that statement on so while I personally rank Always Dreaming ahead of IWC I can see the rationale behind his statement. It's also quite possible his mind will change by the time the ML odds go up.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:05 pm

Lezcano named by Casse to ride State of Honor
Jose Lezcano has been named to ride State of Honor in the Kentucky Derby on May 6, trainer Mark Casse said Tuesday afternoon.

State of Honor, second most recently in the Florida Derby, had been ridden by Julien Leparoux, but Leparoux is committed to Casse's other Derby starter, champion Classic Empire, who won the Arkansas Derby last Saturday.
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36215
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Treve
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Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:21 pm

Well his fans were calling for a more aggressive rider.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Somnambulist
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:08 pm

In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:47 pm

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
Agreed on Always Dreaming, any other year he might feel like an easy toss but the unknown factor is too much to ignore this year. I honestly think Gunnevera is the most consistent horse in the field- his Florida Derby wasn't pretty on the surface, but he basically did what he always does: he dropped back and made a big late run, but he hit the rail and ended up much too far back off a pace that wasn't closer-friendly. He's run four stakes races in a row that were decent at the very least, which is I think more than any other horse in the field can say. Girvin feels like a horse that I shouldn't be comfortable ignoring, but he's tough to read based on only four races. Is he a slow horse who has benefited from good setups, or is he genuinely moving forward? Wish I knew.

Off the top of my head, I'd say McCracken had the best excuse, as he had an abbreviated preparation coupled with a tough trip in the Bluegrass. Not sure how much he can be expected to move forward in the Derby though, his trainer is known for it but I don't see much evidence that he's moved forward at 3 (I'm pretty suspicious of the Davis). Classic Empire was coming off a layoff and got caught wide in the Holy Bull but he did end up close to a very slow pace. Irish War Cry had the softest trip imaginable in that race then folded when forced to press next out, but then he pressed nicely in the Wood, except the field was bad and the track was biased towards speed... so many mixed messages that I just have no idea what to do with. I'm also worried about the fact that he is getting only one work before the Derby and it will be at Fair Hill. At 6-1 or thereabouts, is he worth the risk?

Probably a good move by the connections of Conquest Mo Money, he will be very live in the Preakness.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:08 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?
Agreed on Always Dreaming, any other year he might feel like an easy toss but the unknown factor is too much to ignore this year. I honestly think Gunnevera is the most consistent horse in the field- his Florida Derby wasn't pretty on the surface, but he basically did what he always does: he dropped back and made a big late run, but he hit the rail and ended up much too far back off a pace that wasn't closer-friendly. He's run four stakes races in a row that were decent at the very least, which is I think more than any other horse in the field can say. Girvin feels like a horse that I shouldn't be comfortable ignoring, but he's tough to read based on only four races. Is he a slow horse who has benefited from good setups, or is he genuinely moving forward? Wish I knew.

Off the top of my head, I'd say McCracken had the best excuse, as he had an abbreviated preparation coupled with a tough trip in the Bluegrass. Not sure how much he can be expected to move forward in the Derby though, his trainer is known for it but I don't see much evidence that he's moved forward at 3 (I'm pretty suspicious of the Davis). Classic Empire was coming off a layoff and got caught wide in the Holy Bull but he did end up close to a very slow pace. Irish War Cry had the softest trip imaginable in that race then folded when forced to press next out, but then he pressed nicely in the Wood, except the field was bad and the track was biased towards speed... so many mixed messages that I just have no idea what to do with. I'm also worried about the fact that he is getting only one work before the Derby and it will be at Fair Hill. At 6-1 or thereabouts, is he worth the risk?

Probably a good move by the connections of Conquest Mo Money, he will be very live in the Preakness.
He was running on an abscessed foot. Per Casse when they found the abscess it was estimated it was already present in the Holy Bull. I think that's a pretty decent excuse.

I don't however, know what to make of the fact McCraken was apparently completely wiped and exhausted after the Blue Grass and that his trainer thinks it's a good thing, vs Classic Empire not being tired one bit and his trainers also thinking that's a very good thing. For two horses coming off a long layoff and seeking some foundation/fitness, which is it?
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:23 pm

Javier Castellano now confirmed to ride Gunnevera in Kentucky Derby per his agent Mike Lakow and trainer Antonio Sano.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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