stark wrote:I think it's about time that we have a morning line favorite listed at 5/1, if not higher!
16 Nyquist 3/1
15 American Pharoah 5/2
14 California Chrome 5/2
13 Orb 7/2 actual off odds 5.40-1
12 Bodemeister 4/1
11 Dialed In 4/1
10 Lookin at Lucky 3/1 actual off odds 6.30-1
09 I Want Revenge 3/1
08 Big Brown 3/1
07 Curlin 7/2
06 Brother Derek actual off odds 7.70-1
05 Bellamy Road 5/2
04 The Cliffs Edge 4/1 actual off odds 8.20-1
03 Empire Maker 6/5
02 Harlen Holiday 9/2
01 Point Given 9/5
00 Fusiachi Pegasus 9/5
Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year?
Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.
It might have been above 5/1 until Classic Empire's win. When you have a 2 year old champion coming off a big effort there naturally will be some benefit of a doubt.
Besides, in a race like this bettors tend to bunch instead of differentiate year to year. The favorite falls within a certain range no matter how dominant or vulnerable.
Battaglia similarly always seems to slot the favorite in the same small range and drop the second and third choices into the same territory.
I don't agree with Battaglia that Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are basically indistinguishable. IMO there is a clear gap in ability. That will certainly be a matchup water for me on Always Dreaming if the odds are comparable. Again, I don't see how anybody could back Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby if they didn't also have him in that very soft spot in the Wood. He basically just had to show up there.
Regardless, I appreciate that on racing forums the betting aspect is well known and basic mistakes are not made. Yesterday I was reading a football article that asserted Christian McCaffrey was "odds-on favorite" to be selected by one specific team. Sure.