Arrogate

BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:32 pm

Have there been any complaints...or even quiet mutterings...about the Del Mar track being hard on horses?
Jeff Mullins shipped his million-dollar maiden winner, Tatters To Riches, to San Luis Rey Downs training center for a half-mile workout, instead of working him over the surfside oval. :?
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/del-mar ... ships-work
stark
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:45 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Have there been any complaints...or even quiet mutterings...about the Del Mar track being hard on horses?
Jeff Mullins shipped his million-dollar maiden winner, Tatters To Riches, to San Luis Rey Downs training center for a half-mile workout, instead of working him over the surfside oval. :?
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/del-mar ... ships-work
The goal was to replicate the SantaAnita surface and it's not that, but injuries/fatalities are not a result, it's just different, deeper etc. and we still have horsesforcourses venue where the turf meets the surf.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:25 pm

Opening workout of 25 and change is a bit concerning again. Doesn't want to show any early speed.

Arrogate will rebound and win the Pacific Classic. Reassure his fans that he is back. Then I plan to bet on Accelerate to beat him in the BC Classic at 5-1 or higher. The way Arrogate has declined since the Travers, he should be around 110-113 BSF which is beatable. He will still be named Horse of the Year for making $13M off two races.

I'm still an Arrogate fan and huge Baffert fan. But Accelerate is like Blame to me if Arrogate is like Zenyatta on the decline in 2010. Accelerate might not want 10F but he loves the track more than Arrogate. Victor Espinoza to end the Baffert BCC run and avenge him for Chrome's two defeats from Arrogate by beating him twice with Accelerate and a horse going to finish ahead of him thrice.

Arrogate will likely win the PC at 3/5. Perhaps track record time. Perhaps a solid 115 BSF. The reassurance race to overbet him again the race after. But by BCC, he could be a bad play like his SD. Arrogate has declined at 4 like Easy Goer, Sunday Silence, and Rachel Alexandra all did. A flash in a plan great-lite like Ghostzapper but a quicker ascent and descent in form.

Accelerate = Alsab-Noor-Sunday Silence-Eli Manning

Get him at 5-1 on BCC day while Arrogate becomes odds-on again and East Coast money going to Gun Runner. Watch Accelerate lose the PC to help his odds go up. Runs a modest 2nd and then avenges Arrogate in November. Gun Runner might soften him up but I still like Victor to wire the field. Mike vs Victor BC Round 2.

Don't sleep on Stellar Wind either against Songbird. We all saw how Beholder lost to her twice and she seems to love running in Del Mar. Payback time for the newly elected HoFer with a horse on the upswing over a horse's form which returned back to Earth. Arrogate might no longer reach Pegasus-level anymore.
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:14 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Have there been any complaints...or even quiet mutterings...about the Del Mar track being hard on horses?
Jeff Mullins shipped his million-dollar maiden winner, Tatters To Riches, to San Luis Rey Downs training center for a half-mile workout, instead of working him over the surfside oval. :?
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/del-mar ... ships-work
Absolutely, there's been complaints.

I think there was a previous discussion about Peter Miller's dismay after the Sorrento S. when his undefeated two year old filly, Surrender Now, ran poorly and was eased. I'm not a huge Peter Miller fan, but others have said similar things.
“It’s deep, tiring. It’s very unfair – and you can quote me,” Miller said. “They say it’s like Santa Anita. It’s nothing like Santa Anita.”
http://www.drf.com/news/damatos-spectat ... nto-stakes

Now it turns out she was injured.

Del Mar: Injury sidelines Surrender Now
Surrender Now, who won the Landaluce Stakes at Santa Anita in July but was last in the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes on Aug. 5, has been sidelined with a fractured tibia, trainer Peter Miller said on Wednesday afternoon.

Miller said it was unclear how long Surrender Now woule be sidelined.

Surrender Now has won 2 of 3 starts and earned $92,745. She beat maidens in her debut by two lengths at Santa Anita on June 9 and won the Landaluce Stakes by eight lengths. In the Sorrento Stakes, Surrender Now set the pace but faded in the stretch and was eased by jockey Flavien Prat.
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/38153-del-m ... render-now
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:45 pm

I know that very firm, fast tracks can cause injuries due to concussion through the horse's skeletal system, but don't deep, tiring surfaces bring a different set of challenges? Maybe by putting more strain on the muscles and tendons as the horse tries to accelerate against the drag of a deep surface?
IIRC, there were trainers who disliked synthetic surfaces for that very reason. While the fatal breakdown rate decreased, they pointed out that there were more soft tissue injuries, some of which could sideline a horse for lengthy periods.
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Northport
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:30 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I know that very firm, fast tracks can cause injuries due to concussion through the horse's skeletal system, but don't deep, tiring surfaces bring a different set of challenges? Maybe by putting more strain on the muscles and tendons as the horse tries to accelerate against the drag of a deep surface?
IIRC, there were trainers who disliked synthetic surfaces for that very reason. While the fatal breakdown rate decreased, they pointed out that there were more soft tissue injuries, some of which could sideline a horse for lengthy periods.
Absolutely. Deep surfaces are known to cause more tendon and muscular injuries than firm/shallow surfaces. Some synthetic tracks have this effect as well.

Kind of unrelated, but when I worked at Woodbine, I remember asking some trainers their opinion on the change to Polytrack from dirt and they said that the deep/cushion surface of Polytrack doesn't give/move out of the way/breakdown when a horse's hoof pivots on it, causing more tendon injuries than had occurred on dirt.
weeeeeeeee
BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:00 pm

Arrogate worked 1/2 mile in :47.6 Splits: :24.2 :35.4 :47.6 Gallop Out: 1:00.00 1:14.20

He just cruised around there. We’re set. - Bob Baffert


https://twitter.com/DelMarRacing?ref_sr ... ort.com%2F

TVG showed the work this morning and IMO, he looked good. But he looked good before the San Diego, too, so.... :?
katmandu
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Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:36 pm

I don't recall him running so high headed before (down backstretch), and coming around the turn he dives to the rail before switching leads not so fluidly. I wonder a little how many paper clips are being used to hold him together (?). Once he switches to the right lead, he seems OK, and when he switches back in the gallop out he looks a lot better. I suppose the race may be telling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2lESmfLVWE
stark
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Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:19 pm

Jay Privman‏ @DRFPrivman 2h2 hours ago

Baffert re: BC being at DMR: "If the @BreedersCup wasn’t here, maybe I’d have been reluctant to run him back. But we’ve got to find out
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Kurenai
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Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:32 pm

I didn't like his action when he came down the stretch in this work after switching leads. He didn't look comfortable to me (not saying he has a physical problem, he didn't run like he was hurting, but he also didn't run really fluid, seemed a bit choppy to me). Then again maybe he always looks like that, I didn't pay much attention to his previous works to be honest.

Not over analyzing because he lost last time out, he just threw in a clunker on that day. I know what he is capable of, if he is at 100%.
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Life At Zen
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Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:00 pm

If Baffert is comfortable running him back here, I gotta trust that. He has a legit excuse to not run him here but he is anyway. Makes you wonder.
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Catalina
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Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:46 pm

Life At Zen wrote:If Baffert is comfortable running him back here, I gotta trust that. He has a legit excuse to not run him here but he is anyway. Makes you wonder.
Another "paid work" where it doesn't matter to the trainer where the horse finishes?
Somnambulist
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Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:45 pm

Catalina wrote:
Life At Zen wrote:If Baffert is comfortable running him back here, I gotta trust that. He has a legit excuse to not run him here but he is anyway. Makes you wonder.
Another "paid work" where it doesn't matter to the trainer where the horse finishes?
What?

Why do people here just to the most extreme negatives?
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Life At Zen
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Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:51 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Catalina wrote:
Life At Zen wrote:If Baffert is comfortable running him back here, I gotta trust that. He has a legit excuse to not run him here but he is anyway. Makes you wonder.
Another "paid work" where it doesn't matter to the trainer where the horse finishes?
What?

Why do people here just to the most extreme negatives?
I'm just as lost and confused as you are...
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Big Ten
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Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:12 pm

I wish someone put another $2M show bet on Arrogate again but he likely wins or hits the board, so it doesn't matter. Accelerate at 3-1, why not? Collected might soften him up early. Arrogate from midpack with a recent opening 24 quarter suggest he will be sharper this time. I would like to see another prep after PC to get a good gauge on Arrogate's form but he looks to be headed to the BCC after. If he ran in the Awesome Again, it would give me more reassurance.

I like Accelerate in the BCC though whether he loses soundly this weekend. I think of Blame losing the Jockey Club Gold Cup beaten by 4 lengths. Blame relished Churchill and Accelerate relishes Del Mar. I don't mind Arrogate never losing again but maybe trying to play place and show on others is the way to make money anytime he races. Del Mar is filled with rich, drunk bettors with huge place and show payouts and playing P/S isn't totally betting against Arrogate.

No money to be made with Arrogate anymore. It peaked in the Travers (11-1) and was still 7/2 in last year's BCC.
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Curtis
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Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:23 pm

Life At Zen wrote:
I'm just as lost and confused as you are...
There has been speculation since the San Diego that not only was Arrogate stiffed but flat out held. Evidently Baffert was betting heavily in the place and show spots. I did see Baffert after the race counting huge piles of cash along with Sasquatch and the Loch Ness Monster, so who knows?
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Life At Zen
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Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:19 pm

Curtis wrote:
Life At Zen wrote:
I'm just as lost and confused as you are...
There has been speculation since the San Diego that not only was Arrogate stiffed but flat out held. Evidently Baffert was betting heavily in the place and show spots. I did see Baffert after the race counting huge piles of cash along with Sasquatch and the Loch Ness Monster, so who knows?
Wouldn't that be hugely detrimental to the horse's psyche in regards to racing?
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Gormley, Royal Mo, Shaman Ghost, Constellation

Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
Tessablue
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Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:02 pm

Between his last work and Baffert's hedging, I'm not getting great vibes for Saturday... but I hope he does it, and I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.
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Curtis
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Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:46 pm

Life At Zen wrote:
Curtis wrote:
Life At Zen wrote:
I'm just as lost and confused as you are...
There has been speculation since the San Diego that not only was Arrogate stiffed but flat out held. Evidently Baffert was betting heavily in the place and show spots. I did see Baffert after the race counting huge piles of cash along with Sasquatch and the Loch Ness Monster, so who knows?
Wouldn't that be hugely detrimental to the horse's psyche in regards to racing?
His trainer consorting with Bigfoot? Well they say if you gotta' explain it......... ;)
Apollo
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Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:36 am

Curtis wrote:
Life At Zen wrote:
I'm just as lost and confused as you are...
There has been speculation since the San Diego that not only was Arrogate stiffed but flat out held. Evidently Baffert was betting heavily in the place and show spots. I did see Baffert after the race counting huge piles of cash along with Sasquatch and the Loch Ness Monster, so who knows?
It was far beyond that. Bode was wearing an outfit intentionally several sizes too large and struggling to remain on his feet given all the cash stuffed in his pockets and elsewhere.

I was following him around rooting for spillage.
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