2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown" Results

PostTimeMike
Posts: 130
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:18 pm
Location: Big Easy

Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:58 pm

The 1st Saturday in May is less than 2 weeks away!! For months, contenders for the "Roses" have been analyzed / evaluated / researched / applauded / and dismissed in various threads in the Racing Forum. I enjoy these discussions as much and sometimes more than the actual race. The exhaustive efforts some of the posters (Kennedy / Matt Converse / etc.) for this effort is commendable and appreciated!!

As a former Moderator of the Handicapping Forum (Remember me?), I began thinking of a way to turn this discourse into a contest. Keeping with the "Lists" theme, I offer the following challenge:

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":
1. Select 10 entrants (+ 2 alternates). Use the entrants name and post position number. Note: Name takes precedent over number (if typo exists). Listing both correctly assists with scoring efforts!
2. Rank the entrants in order you predict them to finish (including alternates).
3. Each entrant that finishes in the Top Ten will receive 10 points.
4. Extra points: 1st = 100 / 2nd = 50 / 3rd - 40 / 4th = 30 / 5th = 20.
5. Entrants receive the point total of the selected position (1st through 5th) if the entrant finishes in that position or higher. Ex. The selected position is 5th and the entrant finishes in 3rd. The entrant receives 20 points (5th place value).
6. Total possible points is 340.
7. In the event of a scratch, all entrants move up to fill the slot and the 1st alternate moves into the #10 position.
8. In the event of a tie, the finishing positions of the remaining selections (6th - 10th) and alternates (if needed) will be evaluated.
9. Ultimate tiebreaker - The "Win" bet payout for the Champion!
10. Final selections must be made before 12:00 (EDT) / 11:00 AM (CDT) / 10:00 AM MDT) / 9:00 AM (PDT) on Derby Day.
11. Do not edit your "official" post once the deadline is reached. Until then, you have free "rein" to post / edit / or just set up your entry. You can copy and paste the template below:

******************************************************************************************************************************
2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

1) Trojan Nation 2) Suddenbreakingnews 3) Creator 4) Mo Tom 5) Gun Runner 6) My Man Sam 7) Oscar Nominated 8) Lani 9) Destin 10) Whitmore
11) Exaggerator 12) Tom's Ready 13) Nyquist 14) Mohaymen 15) Outwork 16) Shagaf 17) Mor Spirit 18) Majesto 19) Brody's Cause 20) Danzing Candy


Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {X} [XXXX]
2) {X} [XXXX]
3) {X} [XXXX]
4) {X} [XXXX]
5) {X} [XXXX]

6) {X} [XXXX]
7) {X} [XXXX]
8) {X} [XXXX]
9) {X} [XXXX]
10) {X} [XXXX]

Alt. 1 {X} [XXXX]
Alt. 2 {X} [XXXX]

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $XX.XX


******************************************************************************************************************************
Posting this thread might seem a bit early, but I wanted participants to have time to evaluate their selections. Just keep in mind the deadline and feel free to add / edit as much as you want until then. The time stamp (last edit) of your "official" post must not be after that.

P.S. - It's been a few years since I posted Handicapping Contests. If you have any suggestions or see any flaws with this one, please post in a separate reply.

Thanks for playing!! Good luck and good racing!!! 8-)
Last edited by PostTimeMike on Sun May 08, 2016 6:13 pm, edited 9 times in total.
PostTimeMike
Posts: 130
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:18 pm
Location: Big Easy

Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:00 pm

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {11} [Exaggerator]
2) {5} [Gun Runner]
3) {17} [Mor Spirit]
4) {2} [Suddenbreakingnews]
5) {3} [Creator]

6) {13} [Nyquist]
7) {14} [Mohaymen]
8) {12} [Tom's Ready]
9) {9} [Destin]
10) {7} [Oscar Nominated]

Alt. 1 {19} [Brody's Cause]
Alt. 2 {10} [Whitmore]

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $14.40


Comments - Somewhat "educated" but mostly "sentimental" selections for now. Always a soft spot for Curlin's kids. The Louisiana Derby winner will get my support every time. Will probably wait until the field is set to add any more selections.
5/5 - Made a few moves. Looking at Exxaggerator's PP's. Appears Kent D. had him "training" for the Derby instead of racing to "qualify" for the Derby. The move on the backstretch of the SA Derby was the most impressive moment of all the Derby preps. Gun Runner is a grinder that should get good position with no speed to the inside of him.
5/7 - Final Selections. This was a tough one!! :D
Last edited by PostTimeMike on Sat May 07, 2016 7:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
MySaladDays
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Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Tue Apr 26, 2016 12:02 am

Looks like fun! Hope I can remember to play, night before Derby and morning of Derby is a little hectic around my place.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:59 am

1-#11-Exaggerator
2-#9-Destin
3-#3-Creator
4-#2-Suddenbreakingnews
5-#19-Brody's Cause
6-#17-Mor Spirit
7-#1-Trojan Nation
8-#6-My Man Sam
9-#4-Mo Tom
10-#13-Nyquist
11-#10-Whitmore
12-#5-Gun Runner
Win payout: $14.20
Last edited by Matt Converse on Wed May 04, 2016 11:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
EquineAnne
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:22 pm

Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:36 am

Matt Converse wrote:1-Exaggerator
2-Destin
3-Creator
4-Suddenbreakingnews
4-Brody's Cause
6-Mor Spirit
7-Trojan Nation
8-My Man Sam
9-Mo Tom
10-Nyquist
11-Whitmore
12-Gun Runner
Matt, I would be so thrilled if Ex won. I'm just skeptical. Is he your number one because he has the top BSF?

It seems to me that none of these horses have any buzz. No one is a stand out. The only one folks seem psyched up about is one with the least chance -- Lani! The entire Derby season seems kind of flat.
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Man o Taz
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Tue Apr 26, 2016 5:30 pm

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1. (15) Outwork
2. (19) Brody's Cause
3. (11) Exaggerator
4. (13) Nyquist
5. (17) Mor Spirit

6. (3) Creator
7. (5) Gun Runner
8. (14) Mohaymen
9. (19 Destin
10.(6) My Man Sam
Alt 1: (2) Suddenbreakingnews
Alt 2: (18) Majesto

I do not like SBN getting so far inside even with him being a deep closer.
Last edited by Man o Taz on Fri May 06, 2016 10:14 am, edited 5 times in total.
And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath over it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse.
-Bedouin Legend


Give to Old Friends, or your favorite local horse rescue.
MySaladDays
Posts: 907
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Tue Apr 26, 2016 5:57 pm

I thought we were waiting for post position numbers, as the rules seem to imply that you have to include those along with your picks?
PostTimeMike
Posts: 130
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Location: Big Easy

Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:22 pm

MySaladDays wrote:I thought we were waiting for post position numbers, as the rules seem to imply that you have to include those along with your picks?
The PP #'s will be required for each contestant's official last edit. I will probably select a more definitive time than before the 1st post on Derby Day.

For the time being, it would be advantageous for this scorer if all the forum members that plan to participate simply post an initial entry and edit that post accordingly. Also, cutting and pasting the template from the initial post helps as well. See bolded below.

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

1) Trojan Nation 2) Suddenbreakingnews 3) Creator 4) Mo Tom 5) Gun Runner 6) My Man Sam 7) Oscar Nominated 8) Lani 9) Destin 10) Whitmore
11) Exaggerator 12) Tom's Ready 13) Nyquist 14) Mohaymen 15) Outwork 16) Shagaf 17) Mor Spirit 18) Majesto 19) Brody's Cause 20) Danzing Candy

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {X} [XXXX]
2) {X} [XXXX]
3) {X} [XXXX]
4) {X} [XXXX]
5) {X} [XXXX]

6) {X} [XXXX]
7) {X} [XXXX]
8) {X} [XXXX]
9) {X} [XXXX]
10) {X} [XXXX]

Alt. 1 {X} [XXXX]
Alt. 2 {X} [XXXX]

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $XX.XX


For the present, there is no need to include any entrants. Posting your entry template assists with tracking / scoring. You can add any comments or observations below your selections.

Once the draw is finalized, I intend to post the list to assist with cutting and pasting your selections.

So, between now and the deadline, add as little or as much information as you want. Everyone's participation and input is appreciated!!
Last edited by PostTimeMike on Fri May 06, 2016 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:44 pm

EquineAnne wrote:
Matt Converse wrote:1-Exaggerator
2-Destin
3-Creator
4-Suddenbreakingnews
4-Brody's Cause
6-Mor Spirit
7-Trojan Nation
8-My Man Sam
9-Mo Tom
10-Nyquist
11-Whitmore
12-Gun Runner
Matt, I would be so thrilled if Ex won. I'm just skeptical. Is he your number one because he has the top BSF?
It doesn't hurt. It also depends how you do it and in what race. I'll take mud and 9f over fast and 7f when comparing 100+ Beyers. I have doubts about Exaggerator too. I have big doubts about all of them. If any horse on my list stepped up and ran a lifetime best 100+ Beyer, they'd probably win or be very close. All that said, I liked Exaggerator before he even hit the wire or the speed figure was calculated. He wowed me. No one else has. Gallop out skeptics cover your eyes, but one of my bigger worries is why Exaggerator drifts way out in his gallop outs. The previous one made sense given how he finished, this time I thought it didn't fit, but maybe that's just him--or was he very tired?
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Dusty
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Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:31 am

My place holder

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {17} [Mor Spirit]
2) {14} [Mohaymen]
3) {4} [Mo Tom]
4) {13} [Nyquist]
5) {16} [Shagaf]

6) {1} [Trojan Nation]
7) {6} [My Man Sam]
8) {15} [Outwork]
9) {19} [Brody's Cause]
10) {3} [Creator]

Alt. 1 {5} [Gun Runner]
Alt. 2 {18} [Majesto]

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $22.50
Last edited by Dusty on Fri May 06, 2016 10:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
May they run with the WIND
PostTimeMike
Posts: 130
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:18 pm
Location: Big Easy

Mon May 02, 2016 5:13 pm

Bumped this up to remind everyone about the contest. The template below contains the list of this year's entrants ranked in order of each one's points standings and PP's assigned accordingly. If you copy the template below for your temporary entry, you can cut and paste when you make your final edits. Don't include the 13 - 20 selections. Please double check the PP#'s. Hopefully, this will save you some typing.

Remember, you can edit your entry as much as you want until the determined deadline.
Or leave it blank until you make your selections. Your choice.

Hard to believe it will be 8 years ago that the Backstretch Boys Stables were there for the race!!

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

Position {PP #} [ Name}


1) {1} [Gun Runner]
2) {2} [Nyquist]
3) {3} [Exaggerator]
4) {4} [Outwork]
5) {5} [Brody's Cause]

6) {6} [Creator]
7) {7} [Lani]
8) {8} [Mor Spirit]
9) {9} [Mohaymen]
10) {10} [Danzing Candy]

Alt. 1) {11} [Destin]
Alt. 2) {12} [Suddenbreakingnews]

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

13) {13} [Oscar Nominated]
14) {14} [Shagaf]
15) {15} [Whitmore]
16) {16} [Tom's Ready]
17) {17} [My Man Sam]
18) {18} [Majesto]
19) {19}[Trojan Nation]
20) {20} [Mo Tom]
MySaladDays
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Mon May 02, 2016 6:12 pm

Placeholder: Just playin' around for now getting a few lined up to see how they look.

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {5} Gunrunner
2) {2} Suddenbreakingnews
3) {8} Lani
4) {13} Nyquist
5) {9} Destin

6) {18} Majesto
7) {17} Mor Spirit
8) {11} Exaggerator
9) {4} Mo Tom
10) {3} Creator

Alt. 1 {7} Oscar Nominated
Alt. 2 {19} Brody's Cause

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $17.00

Final Time 2:03
1-1/2 lengths
Last edited by MySaladDays on Sat May 07, 2016 7:56 am, edited 22 times in total.
Ashado
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:37 pm

Mon May 02, 2016 10:56 pm

My place holder

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {15} Outwork
2) {13} Nyquist
3) {14} Mohaymen
4) {3} Creator
5) {9} Destin

6) {19} Brody's Cause
7) {4} Mo Tom
8) {17} Mor Spirit
9) {11} exaggerator
10) {2}Suddenbreakingnews

Alt. 1 {5} Gun Runner
Alt. 2 {10} whitmore

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $18.88


Final time: 2:02 2/5
Margin: 1/2 length
Beyer: 106
Last edited by Ashado on Fri May 06, 2016 11:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Formerly klsyr1
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Big Ten
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Wed May 04, 2016 8:09 pm

1. #13 Nyquist
2. #11 Exaggerator
3. #19 Brody's Cause
4. #17 Mor Spirit
5. #5 Gun Runner
6. #3 Creator
7. #14 Mohaymen
8. #2 Suddenbreakingnews
9. #1 Trojan Nation
10. #20 Danzing Candy

Alternatives
#10 Whitmore
#15 Outwork

Final time: 2:03 3/5
Margin: 2 lengths
Beyer: 102

If Nyquist wins the Ky Derby, expect him to win the Preakness and take his 9 for 9 perfect record in NY. Doug gets another chance. He'll have another. But I expect Nyquist to end the Belmont more like Chrome than Pharoah.

If the racing gods are kind and we get back-to-back Triple Crown winners, then this 2010's decade has easily surpassed the previous three decades in 3YO quality. I don't see another Grand Slam winner. A 5YO and fully matured California Chrome would still destroy an improving Nyquist in the BC Classic. But I would love to see Nyquist go 10 for 10. He retires with some unforseen injury or whatever after Belmont. He will head to Jonabell where Affirmed spent his last days and "we'll have another" back-to-back TC winner since 1978. Perhaps first TC champion to retire undefeated...

Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, who? California Chrome, American Pharoah, Beholder, Shared Belief, Songbird, Nyquist.. These legends are for the new generations of the Millenials and after. The Baby Boomers had their Seattle Slew and Affirmed. American Pharoah and Nyquist are for the next generations...
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
PostTimeMike
Posts: 130
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:18 pm
Location: Big Easy

Wed May 04, 2016 8:41 pm

Outstanding Big Ten! Great analysis. And you bumped up the thread.

I'm currently at the family fishing camp in the South Louisiana marshes. 4G on the Android makes for tough posting.
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ElPrado2
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Wed May 04, 2016 10:01 pm

I'll give it a try.

1). 3 Creator

2) 14 Mohaymen

3). 5 Gun Runner

4). 13 Nyquist

5). 17. Mor Spirit

6). 11 Exaggerator

7) 18 Majesto

8). 9 Destin

9). 8 Lani

10) 2 Suddenbreakingnews

Alts
19. Brody's Cause

15 Outwork

203.1

1/2 length

Beyer
102
Tessablue
Posts: 3506
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Location: Boston

Wed May 04, 2016 11:02 pm

Love this idea, thanks for putting it together Mike!
2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

Position {PP #} [ Name}


1) {11} [Exaggerator]
2) {3} [Creator]
3) {13} [Nyquist]
4) {16} [Shagaf]
5) {17} [Mor Spirit]

6) {6} [My Man Sam]
7) {19} [Brody's Cause]
8) {2} [Suddenbreakingnews]
9) {15} [Outwork]
10) {14} [Mohaymen]

Alt. 1) {18} [Majesto]
Alt. 2) {10} [Whitmore]

Win bet payout- $16.60
peeptoad
Posts: 2712
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Thu May 05, 2016 10:09 am

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {3} [Creator]
2) {6} [My Man Sam]
3) {17} [Mor Spirit]
4) {11} [Exaggerator]
5) {2} [Suddenbreakingnews]

6) {5} [Gun Runner]
7) {13} [Nyquist]
8) {15} [Outwork]
9) {19} [Brody's Cause]
10) {9} [Destin]

Alt. 1 {18} [Majesto]
Alt. 2 {4} [Mo Tom]

Win bet payout- $18.00
stark
Posts: 4088
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Thu May 05, 2016 11:29 am

1. 20-Danzing Candy
2. 17-Mor Spirit
3. 11-Exaggerator
4. 13-Nyquist
5. 10-Whitmore
6. 09-Destin
7. 15-Outwork
8. 03-Creator
9. 19-Brodys Cause
10. 1- Trojan Nation

Winning payoff $37.
Not sure how much the Superfecta will pay but I'll probably be waiting in the IRS line if I'm not here to collect the contest prizes! :lol:
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Kennedy
Posts: 1043
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu May 05, 2016 12:37 pm

2016 Kentucky Derby Lists "Top 10 Throwdown":

Position {PP #} [ Name}

1) {3} [Creator]
2) {17} [Mor Spirit]
3) {19} [Brody's Cause]
4) {11} [Exaggerator]
5) {13} [Nyquist]

6) {2} [Suddenbreakingnews]
7) {6} [My Man Sam]
8) {7} [Oscar Nominated]
9) {18} [Majesto]
10) {9} [Destin]

Alt. 1 {14} [Mohaymen]
Alt. 2 {4} [Mo Tom]

Ultimate tie-breaker - Win bet payout $18.90
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