Breeder's Cup Friday

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carole
Posts: 2371
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:57 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 4:30 pm

Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. I) Nov 1 1:45 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Old Time Hockey Jose Lezcano Thomas F. Proctor 8-1
2 Cease David Cohen David Jacobson 8-1
3 Commander Aaron Gryder Troy Taylor 6-1
4 Ever Rider Gary Stevens Maria Munoz 7-2
5 Suns Out Guns Out Julien R. Leparoux Dale L. Romans 10-1
6 Indian Jones Angel Castillo Philip T. Aristone 5-1
7 London Bridge Mike Smith Jo Hughes 8-1---WINNER---
8 Blueskiesnrainbows Martin A. Pedroza Jerry Hollendorfer 6-1---SECOND---
9 Pool Play Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark E. Casse 8-1
10 Worldly David Flores Brendan P. Walsh 6-1---THIRD---

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) Nov 1 2:25 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 All Cash Luis Saez D. Wayne Lukas 30-1
2 Giovanni Boldini Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 7-2---SECOND---
3 Got Shades Gary Stevens Danny Pish 30-1
4 Outstrip Mike Smith Charlie Appleby 4-1---WINNER---
5 Bobby's Kitten Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 5-2---THIRD---
6 Home School Rafael Bejarano Doug F. O'Neill 30-1
7 Aotearoa Corey Nakatani Leonard Powell 12-1
8 Bon Accord Joel Rosario Antonio Sano 20-1
9 Wilshire Boulevard William Buick Aidan P. O'Brien 8-1
10 Ontology Mario Gutierrez Simon Callaghan 30-1
11 Poker Player Channing Hill Wayne M. Catalano 12-1
12 Shamshon Richard Hughes Richard Hannon 12-1
13 Bashart John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 6-1

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) Nov 1 3:05 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Taptowne Brian Hernandez, Jr. Tim Glyshaw 15-1---SCRATCH---
2 Golden Ticket Joel Rosario Kenneth G. McPeek 12-1---SECOND---
3 Hymn Book Javier Castellano Claude R. McGaughey III 15-1
4 Brujo de Olleros Alan Garcia Richard C. Mettee 8-1---THIRD---
5 Fed Biz Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 6-1
6 Broadway Empire Rico W. Walcott Robertino Diodoro 12-1
7 Alpha Joe Bravo Kiaran P. McLaughlin 8-1
8 Holy Lute Mike Smith James M. Cassidy 20-1
9 Centralinteligence Victor Espinoza Ronald W. Ellis 15-1
10 Verrazano John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 3-1
11 Pants On Fire Paco Lopez Kelly Breen 6-1
12 Goldencents Rafael Bejarano Doug F. O'Neill 4-1---WINNER---
AE Easter Gift Joel Rosario Chad C. Brown 15-1---SCRATCH---

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. IT) Nov 1 3:50 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Nesso Martin Garcia Vann Belvoir 20-1
2 Al Thakhira Ryan Moore Marco Botti 6-1
3 Colonel Joan Joe Talamo Eoin G. Harty 20-1---THIRD---
4 Kitten Kaboodle John Velazquez Chad C. Brown 12-1
5 Granny Mc's Kitten Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 20-1
6 Vorda Olivier Peslier Philippe Sogorb 4-1
7 Street Sailing Alan Garcia Richard C. Mettee 15-1
8 Chriselliam Richard Hughes Charlie Hills 6-1---WINNER---
9 Dancing House Mike Smith Kiaran P. McLaughlin 20-1
10 Clenor Rafael Bejarano Doug F. O'Neill 8-1
11 Ready to Act Joel Rosario Chad C. Brown 8-1
12 Testa Rossi Jose Lezcano Chad C. Brown 8-1---SECOND---
13 Sky Painter Luis Saez Kiaran P. McLaughlin 15-1
14 My Conquestadory Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark E. Casse 9-2

Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) Nov 1 4:35 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Street Girl Angel Castillo Manuel J. Azpurua 30-1
2 Authenticity John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 8-1---THIRD---
3 Close Hatches Joel Rosario William I. Mott 6-1---SECOND---
4 Royal Delta Mike Smith William I. Mott 8-5
5 Beholder Gary Stevens Richard E. Mandella 5-2---WINNER---
6 Princess of Sylmar Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 9-5
Last edited by carole on Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:48 pm, edited 6 times in total.
Kennedy
Posts: 1043
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:01 pm

Marathon
I think that anytime I get around to looking at this race I end up at the same place. I don't care and I wouldn't even bother with it unless it had a Breeders' Cup designation. I hope they just ditch this race soon. But getting into the actual race for this year I have a tepid preference for Suns Out Guns Out. No real reason other than Romans getting some good results lately and this horse is one of the few without real speed. Although the addition of blinkers may put him more into the race. Leparoux is patient so perhaps this guy can out-wobble the rest. Indian Jones is the form horse and he likely has a big change to be favored but it's hard to take a shorter price in a race like this. Ever Rider will get some respect from me but he isn't Calidoscopio and he'll be a fraction of the price. He could win but I don't like his more speedy profile and the shorter price.

Suns Out Guns Out
Indian Jones
Ever Rider

Juvenile Turf
A very interesting contest with a lot of ways to go. For me it starts with the home grown talent. Bobby's Kitten is a phenomenal talent in the making. In both of his wins he absolutely bolted on the field and left his rivals with no chance. He could do that same thing to this group. Brown has been trying to get him to settle and he claims that he is succeeding. I guess we'll see once the gates open. Although I have a lot of respect for Bobby's Kitten I'm actually going elsewhere with my primary play for this race. I think that Bashart stands out as significant value despite the horrendous post. Bashart really impressed me in his last three races. He seems to be quite tough and professional for his age. I think he has the mental attributes necessary for this wide post plus no one for about 8 slots to his inside have any natural speed. I thought Bashart was unlucky in his last race. The trip did him no favors and he still could have won with a more patient approach. I think Velasquez will get it right this time. I don't want to exclude the Europeans entirely from this race. I think that Outstrip, Wilshire Boulevard and Giovanni Boldini are all decent horses capable of winning. But among them only Giovanni Boldini seems to have the change of pace that this tight course and full field might require. I think Outstrip is the best of the invaders but he takes so long to get going his rider will have to be going full out as they head into the turn. Giovanni Boldini has a better cruising speed and pickup and shouldn't have to be as far back as Wilshire Boulevard. He certainly has a good chance.

Bashart
Bobby's Kitten
Giovanni Boldini

Dirt Mile
In it's short history this race has developed into a tricky one and I think this year may be set to follow the atypical mold. Four grade 1 winners are stuck in the outside posts and with about 6 yards to the first turn it could be bad news for those horses. It's an interesting quandary because those are 4 horses that you would think the public would like to support. Like many people I'm looking away from Verrazano and Goldencents for my primary selections. I think that Tapwone might be in a good spot tactically as he will likely establish his position on the fence right from the gate. Broadway Empire and Fed Biz may challenge him a bit but they likely won't want to force too fast a pace. I do think that everyone will have a vested interest in seeing Verrazano and Goldencents floated with early on so perhaps those two fight make the pace faster than it needs to be but honestly I think this race will be a little cagey. Most of the real talent comes from off the pace and if the pace doesn't setup it could leave this race wide open to some lesser lights. We've seen it happen before. Getting back to Taptowne I think that he is a bit better than he seems. He's been on a consistent run of form and is working lights out at present. One I like for a minor place is Holy Lute. With so many others worried about their post he seems to be well situated to work out a good trip. He is improving with every start and I think he learned a bit last time. Smith is a big upgrade in the saddle. I'm tossing Goldencents on at the bottom here because I think he is in great form and despite the post he's going to put in a good try and he is far more talented than my top 2.

Taptowne
Holy Lute
Goldencents

Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is the first race of the weekend where I really love my play. I think Al Thakhira has a super chance. In her two races she has shown a turn of foot that is absolutely top class. You never quite know how a European will handle the local conditions but this filly is very handy and has excellent acceleration. Her trainer is a savvy shipper and her connections already spend some good money acquiring her after her debut. I think we're going to see something special from her. The other Europeans are okay but I would say no more than evenly matched with the rest of this group. My Conquestadory seems like a special filly in her own right. It's pretty amazing to win a race like the Summer in her first start. The post isn't great but with her running style I doubt it'll be a factor. I just think that traffic may be a factor for her. Woodbine and Keeneland's main seem a bit more spacious than the SA Turf. It's hard to ignore the job that Chad Brown does with 2yo's on the lawn and I think Testa Rossi is the best of the group he is bringing for this race.

Al Thakhira
My Conquestadory
Testa Rossi

Distaff
I'm really looking forward to this showdown. Honestly 4 of the 6 horses I see as legitimate win candidates. Close Hatches is a bit shy of the class I think it'll take to win this race and Street Girl honestly would be the most shocking winner of the entire BC if she pulled this off. I think this is the kind of race where you just have to pick one and enjoy the tussle. I'd like to be in Royal Delta's corner. I think she can bully Beholder off the lead and outfinish Authenticity. I actually wonder if Princess of Sylmar will regress here. We'll see but I'll be going for Royal Delta.

Royal Delta
Beholder
Authenticity
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Diver52
Posts: 1656
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Location: Redlands, CA

Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:03 pm

My heart sank when I looked through the PPs for the Marathon. I don't think any of these horses can win it. Gonna play Old Time Hockey though on back class, and he can't be any slower than most of the rest.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
Izvestia
Posts: 3860
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:37 pm

I agree about the Marathon. I guess I like Pool Play or Blueskiesnrainbows. ???

If the Kitten doesn't win, I like the O'Brien horse Wilshire Boulevard.

The Dirt Mile I like Pants On Fire and Goldencents.

My Conquestadory has a horrible post, but I still like her. Or the Kitten.

I love Royal Delta and I will be routing for the big mare. On paper she looks like the winner, regardless of who beat her last time.
Horsebagger
Posts: 1988
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:41 pm

Izvestia wrote:
I love Royal Delta and I will be routing for the big mare. On paper she looks like the winner, regardless of who beat her last time.
You're reading the wrong paper. Every sheet player on the planet is tossing her.
mimi6920
Posts: 504
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:39 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:56 pm

Kennedy, I always love to read your analyses! You always make me think. Keep up the good work!

For the Distaff, I really have a feeling it is going to be Beholder, even though I am rooting for Delta to get the win.

I hate to even think about the marathon. It is always a stagger fast, and the horse that staggers the fastest wins it. That said, I have to think Blueskiesn raindows or Ever Rider.

I am stuck on three horses in the Juv Turf: Giovanni Boldini, Outstrip, or Bobby's Kitten.

I haven't decided about the dirt mile yet. As much as I like the horse, I don't think it will be Verrazano. For some reason, I am getting the Wilburn vibe from him (and we all remember how well he did in the mile). Maybe Pants on Fire or Fed Biz?
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:04 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Izvestia wrote:
I love Royal Delta and I will be routing for the big mare. On paper she looks like the winner, regardless of who beat her last time.
You're reading the wrong paper. Every sheet player on the planet is tossing her.
I don't even think you need to buy them to toss her.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Izvestia
Posts: 3860
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:11 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Izvestia wrote:
I love Royal Delta and I will be routing for the big mare. On paper she looks like the winner, regardless of who beat her last time.
You're reading the wrong paper. Every sheet player on the planet is tossing her.

And, you like... ?

The mare is a beast.
Laurierace
Posts: 113
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:21 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:55 pm

I think the Distaff (love that they are calling it that again by the way!) is one of the toughest six horse fields I have ever seen.
Horsebagger
Posts: 1988
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 11:06 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:
Izvestia wrote:
I love Royal Delta and I will be routing for the big mare. On paper she looks like the winner, regardless of who beat her last time.
You're reading the wrong paper. Every sheet player on the planet is tossing her.

And, you like... ?

The mare is a beast.
What on paper points to her being a "beast" currently? I don't see it. She lost to POS on the square last time with no excuse that I could see. We can call that a prep if you want, and I respect the hell out of Mott pointing her to this race to run her best, but the race doesn't look like it sets up so well for her, imo. Beholder is a major impediment for her, as i don't think she gets things her own way on the front end. I'm closing out my P4 with Beholder and Closed Hatches as As and Authenticity as a B because I think she can sit a trip and pick up the pieces. If RD wins, I lose (if i'm even alive to this race to begin with).

Good luck.
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Raven
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:56 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 11:25 pm

Close Hatches is the one to beat imo!
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
Tessablue
Posts: 3524
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Thu Oct 31, 2013 11:35 pm

Great stuff Kennedy- was surprised/happy to see that some of my preliminary picks align with yours. Still going through PP's and will update along the way... especially after seeing how the track is playing.

Marathon- this one's a crapshoot, per usual. Based entirely on race history, I eliminated pace horses, those without dirt form or a strong dirt pedigree, and those without some recent experience at 12/12+f. This narrows it down considerably: Pool Play, Ever Rider, Indian Jones, and Suns Out Guns Out. Of those four, I like Pool Play the most and Indian Jones the least. Pool Play is the only horse in the race with a win at the distance and should get a decent "pace" to run out, may stagger faster than the others at the end. Ever Rider has proven form at a distance, a quality that set Calidoscopio apart last year even though that horse was probably more talented. Suns Out Guns Out figures to get a decent trip, has a nice pedigree for stretching out and I don't think the Greenwood was the best indicator of his distance ability, as he seems to dislike the mud.

1) Pool Play 2) Ever Rider 3) Suns Out Guns Out

Juvy Turf- still working through this one, but I don't want to overthink it because this is a seriously tough race with a lot of good-looking juveniles. Very tough to look past the two big Euros and Bobby's Kitten, but I like both Bashart and Aotearoa for some value. I saw Bashart win at Saratoga and was very impressed with him- think the 12 post may actually help him relax and keep out of trouble. Aotearoa has a stakes win over the course against Diamond Bachelor- a horse I think very highly of and probably my pick for the juvy. So for now...

1) Bashart 2) One of the Euros? 3) Aotearoa

Dirt Mile- I'm in agreement about Taptowne. Maybe it's some subconscious association with his name (after winning with Tapizar last year), but I think he gets to the front and sticks around for the finish. Who to fill in behind is a bit trickier- while there's the obvious temptation to pick Verrazano or Goldencents, they both have tough post positions and I think I'll stick with some older horses in here. Pants on Fire has a great record at the distance and has run well against some nice horses this year. Brujo des Olleros is likely to get some wiseguy money because of the race he ran against Graydar last out, and I can't discount him. I also like Golden Ticket, but couldn't begin to give you an exact reason why.

1) Taptowne 2) Pants on Fire 3) Brujo des Olleros

Juvy Fillies Turf- One juvenile turf race is exhausting enough. Apparently Chriselliam has looked excellent in the morning, which is enough for me at the moment.

1) Chriselliam 2) Somebody 3) Somebody Else

Distaff- She may not be the best mare in the race, but I think Beholder is absolutely the one to beat here. Loves the course, working great and I think she'll outsprint Royal Delta for that early lead and never look back. Princess is just a quality filly, and I think she's still on the upswing (unlike Royal Delta), but I see her chasing Beholder home in this race. The others are all nice mares in their own rights, but I think they are just a tier below the top three (though I would not be shocked to see Authenticity prove me wrong).

1) Beholder 2) Princess of Sylmar 3) Royal Delta
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9879
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 11:40 pm

As far as how the track is playing...after watching TVG's coverage of the races at Santa Anita today, I kept hearing stuff like, "speed-favoring," "merry-go-round," "speed bias," and "need to be within the first two or three to win."
Looks like the track is fast, and favoring whoever can get to the front. Have to like Beholder if the track is the same tomorrow.
thinair
Posts: 1643
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:37 am

Horsebagger wrote: If RD wins, I lose
Don't steal my line.
Horsebagger
Posts: 1988
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 pm

Fri Nov 01, 2013 8:05 am

thinair wrote:
Horsebagger wrote: If RD wins, I lose
Don't steal my line.
Don't be selfish. You already have the dunce cap all to yourself.
second_glance
Posts: 2524
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:42 am

Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:20 am

Marty McGee ‏@DRFMcGee 26s
BREAKING NEWS: Taptowne (#1, 15-1) is SCR from the #BreedersCup Dirt Mile (R8) with foot bruise. Feel bad for @tgly and @b_hernandezjr.
Tessablue
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:22 am

second_glance wrote:Marty McGee ‏@DRFMcGee 26s
BREAKING NEWS: Taptowne (#1, 15-1) is SCR from the #BreedersCup Dirt Mile (R8) with foot bruise. Feel bad for @tgly and @b_hernandezjr.
awwww man. Sorry for the connections, and this really changes the shape of the race. Back to the drawing board...
peeptoad
Posts: 2733
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:05 pm

My picks are on the other board. Tried to copy and paste w no luck. Probably will miss todays races anyway but i ljke pants on fire and brujo in the dirt mile. Threw them w/ hymn book and golden ticket in an ex bx. Left out verrazano at my own risk. Now hell prob beat me.
Wordly or london bridge are what i came up with for the marathon but not betting that one or anything besides dmile on todays card. Just not enough hours in the day right now! Good luck everybody !
second_glance
Posts: 2524
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:42 am

Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:16 pm

Marty McGee ‏@DRFMcGee 6m
SA's Hammerle re Taptowne SCR: 11 still in field move in 1 slot (as opposed to 1-hole stays open), so Golden Ticket (#2) now on rail, etc.
Empress-Club
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:21 am

Fri Nov 01, 2013 3:24 pm

Does anyone know where you can catch the races online if you're outside the US (I'm in the UK currently)?
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