Kay16 wrote:You've never made any effort to hide the fact you don't believe someone can be a fan and also be level headed about their opinion. That's fine, but let's not start acting like you personally know someone to know when they are being emotional or not.
So the race doesn't set up for RD because she likes to be near the front, guess that means Game on Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic, Moreno, Palace Malice should all skip the race as well? Fort Larned though I do believe he's probably the best horse on talent running right now, has one race this year back in June to prove he's even still in form, Game on Dude throws in the towel any time anyone tries to throw some work at him on the front, Moreno well you can't actually think he has any chance period in the Classic do you? MMM is another with very questionable consistency, and Cross Traffic may or may not be gasping for air in the stretch going a 1 1/4 especially after dealing with a hot pace. One thing RD has proven that many in the Classic haven't is, she'll take pressure going 46 and run all day. But everyone loves to automatically assume a really hot pace is going to come to play when there's a bunch of "speed horses". Half the time it doesn't even happen. Speed is where you want to be at SA.
Honestly (and no offense), but your posts are showing that you know anything about pace or race dynamic. I'm not saying Moreno, Mucho Macho Man or Cross Traffic are horses I'd bet in the Classic, and I don't think any of them will win. However, that doesn't mean they aren't going to be pace factors. If Cross Traffic and Mucho Macho Man hooked Royal Delta and they all went :46 and 1:08 4/5, it wouldn't matter much if they "didn't have a chance" anyway, because all three would be out of gas at the quarter pole. I think it's very dangerous to look at Royal Delta's PPs and say she can "take pressure going 46 and run all day." That's actually barely true.
In her last 10 races, the two times Royal Delta went a half in :46 2/5 or less were the closest two winning margins of victory in that lot, and that's when she was facing My Miss Aurelia, Tiz Miz Sue and those types. She has never proven that she can go :46 against a Grade 1 caliber male horse like Game On Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic or Palace Malice and go on with it, let alone all 4 of them. There is a massive difference there. As to your assertion that Game On Dude "throws in the towel any time anyone tries to throw some work at him on the front," you're basing that off ONE race, and it's not even true. Go watch what he did in the 2011 Classic and tell me if you still think that statement is accurate.
Like I said, right now the horse I think I'll be looking at for the Classic is Flat Out, assuming 99 of 100 factors line up.
Please don't assume I was saying something I wasn't. When I said she has proven she can go fast early and stay late, she has. I never said she has proven it against males. Doesn't mean she can't. Doesn't mean she can. PM hasn't proven he can against the likes of Game on Dude, Cross Traffic, or MMM. Cross Traffic looked like he was crawling home when he had to do it in 47, 1:10 in the Whitney going 1 1/8. If you're going to point out her questions or doubts, don't do it in a manner that says no one else has the same amount of questions. It's not just about what she can or can't do, it's about what her competition can or can't do as well. This is why races are run.
Now you're the one who is showing a lack of knowledge. Throws in the towel was a bit of an exaggeration sure. But you are aware that he lost to Drosselmeyer in the 2011 Classic right? He lost in a performance that would have been up the track against this years males. That was one of the slowest BCC's we've ever seen. Ruler on Ice, a miler named Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Headache, Rattlesnake Bridge, Ice Box, Havre de Grace talented in her own right but not a true 1 1/4 horse and definitely didn't appear to run her best. He threw in the towel when he had to rate behind horses in last years Classic. Sure he didn't break as sharp as expected, but it doesn't matter what caused him to have to rate, the fact is he wasn't able to when he needed to. 2012 PC, he had to rate behind horses, he lost to Dullahan. 2011 HWGC, faced pressure from a horse like Twirling Candy, though valiant, he lost. 2011 PC, had to rate, he lost. This years Charlestown, had to rate, almost lost to Ron the Greek and Clubhouse Ride a horse he's been dominating all year. I know you'll try to say it was the track, but I don't see the proof of that. None of those races was he able to run away like he has against the very average fields he's been facing this year with things all his way. Whether the races he's lost or almost lost were because the competition was tougher, or he lost because he isn't as dominate when facing better fields with pressure or having to rate. Fact is, he has never proven to be near as dominant when either of those scenarios are involved. Maybe it's all just a coincidence?
Good luck with Flat Out. 25-8-5-4, 6 wins at Belmont, only 2 outside of it back in 2010. Hey if you get a good price, go for it. He did finish 3rd last year. But not sure it's fair to pick on RD when you're picking a horse that has a very hard time winning outside of Belmont.