2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby Kay16 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:11 pm

dustino140 wrote:
Kay16 wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:I think you're letting your emotional tie to this horse cloud your judgement a little bit.


Typical response when you disagree with someone's opinion. I think you know the type of responses that have "emotional ties" to them. They're usually a little more one sided, and sometimes outrageous. Saying she's one of the most talented horses in training male or female is not illogical here.


No, you are being far too emotional about it and yes, it is clouding your judgement. You've never made any effort to hide the fact that you're a HUGE Royal Delta fan - and there's nothing wrong with that. However, it's concerning if you don't think it would be very detrimental for her to be running on the front-end of a race against Cross Traffic, Game On Dude, Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man, Palace Malice, Moreno, etc. Royal Delta could run the best race of her life against that bunch and barely factor into the superfecta. She could run the 5th best race of her life and still win the Distaff.


You've never made any effort to hide the fact you don't believe someone can be a fan and also be level headed about their opinion. That's fine, but let's not start acting like you personally know someone to know when they are being emotional or not.

So the race doesn't set up for RD because she likes to be near the front, guess that means Game on Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic, Moreno, Palace Malice should all skip the race as well? Fort Larned though I do believe he's probably the best horse on talent running right now, has one race this year back in June to prove he's even still in form, Game on Dude throws in the towel any time anyone tries to throw some work at him on the front, Moreno well you can't actually think he has any chance period in the Classic do you? MMM is another with very questionable consistency, and Cross Traffic may or may not be gasping for air in the stretch going a 1 1/4 especially after dealing with a hot pace. One thing RD has proven that many in the Classic haven't is, she'll take pressure going 46 and run all day. But everyone loves to automatically assume a really hot pace is going to come to play when there's a bunch of "speed horses". Half the time it doesn't even happen. Near the front is where you want to be at SA.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby Rick1323 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:22 pm

I agree that RD would not be the controlling speed if all the boys show up. I also agree that I don't think she can win any other way. But I would hold off saying she has no business in that race. A lot can happen between now and Nov, suppose she is the only quality speed left to run? I would take my chances if she is loose on the lead.....it is too soon to handicap this mythical race just yet.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby Somnambulist » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:24 pm

Game on Dude does not throw in the towel any time he's challenged. He's not even always on the lead. Saying stuff like that gives no credence to your argument.

And I love Orb. He's in over his head Saturday. I cannot see any of my money on him. At this point this is really a discussion with two groups of people - those who bet and look at all races like were betting because we bet, and those who don't.

Going :46 against Authenticity is not going :46 against Game on Dude or Fort Larned. Class is important.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby dustino140 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:25 pm

Kay16 wrote:You've never made any effort to hide the fact you don't believe someone can be a fan and also be level headed about their opinion. That's fine, but let's not start acting like you personally know someone to know when they are being emotional or not.

So the race doesn't set up for RD because she likes to be near the front, guess that means Game on Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic, Moreno, Palace Malice should all skip the race as well? Fort Larned though I do believe he's probably the best horse on talent running right now, has one race this year back in June to prove he's even still in form, Game on Dude throws in the towel any time anyone tries to throw some work at him on the front, Moreno well you can't actually think he has any chance period in the Classic do you? MMM is another with very questionable consistency, and Cross Traffic may or may not be gasping for air in the stretch going a 1 1/4 especially after dealing with a hot pace. One thing RD has proven that many in the Classic haven't is, she'll take pressure going 46 and run all day. But everyone loves to automatically assume a really hot pace is going to come to play when there's a bunch of "speed horses". Half the time it doesn't even happen. Speed is where you want to be at SA.


Honestly (and no offense), but your posts are showing that you know anything about pace or race dynamic. I'm not saying Moreno, Mucho Macho Man or Cross Traffic are horses I'd bet in the Classic, and I don't think any of them will win. However, that doesn't mean they aren't going to be pace factors. If Cross Traffic and Mucho Macho Man hooked Royal Delta and they all went :46 and 1:08 4/5, it wouldn't matter much if they "didn't have a chance" anyway, because all three would be out of gas at the quarter pole. I think it's very dangerous to look at Royal Delta's PPs and say she can "take pressure going 46 and run all day." That's actually barely true. In her last 10 races, the two times Royal Delta went a half in :46 2/5 or less were the closest two winning margins of victory in that lot, and that's when she was facing My Miss Aurelia, Tiz Miz Sue and those types. She has never proven that she can go :46 against a Grade 1 caliber male horse like Game On Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic or Palace Malice and go on with it, let alone all 4 of them. There is a massive difference there.

As to your assertion that Game On Dude "throws in the towel any time anyone tries to throw some work at him on the front," you're basing that off ONE race, and it's not even true. Go watch what he did in the 2011 Classic and tell me if you still think that statement is accurate.

Like I said, right now the horse I think I'll be looking at for the Classic is Flat Out, assuming 99 of 100 factors line up.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby Somnambulist » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:26 pm

Rick1323 wrote:I agree that RD would not be the controlling speed if all the boys show up. I also agree that I don't think she can win any other way. But I would hold off saying she has no business in that race. A lot can happen between now and Nov, suppose she is the only quality speed left to run? I would take my chances if she is loose on the lead.....it is too soon to handicap this mythical race just yet.


I would take a shot with her then too, but probably only then. And even them the press coverage will all but assure a shorter price than you would hope to expect.

But like you said, it is some months away.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby dustino140 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:28 pm

Rick1323 wrote:I agree that RD would not be the controlling speed if all the boys show up. I also agree that I don't think she can win any other way. But I would hold off saying she has no business in that race. A lot can happen between now and Nov, suppose she is the only quality speed left to run? I would take my chances if she is loose on the lead.....it is too soon to handicap this mythical race just yet.


She has business being in the race if the connections want. She's "earned" the right to try the Classic. So have Alpha, Moreno, Will Take Charge and others, though.

At the end of the day, though, Mott is heady and he will place her in the right spot.

Assuming most of everyone that we think will show up does, there is simply no appeal to being 10/1 in that Classic when you can be 2/5 in the Distaff, and Mott knows it.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby Rick1323 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:38 pm

dustino140 wrote:
Rick1323 wrote:I agree that RD would not be the controlling speed if all the boys show up. I also agree that I don't think she can win any other way. But I would hold off saying she has no business in that race. A lot can happen between now and Nov, suppose she is the only quality speed left to run? I would take my chances if she is loose on the lead.....it is too soon to handicap this mythical race just yet.


She has business being in the race if the connections want. She's "earned" the right to try the Classic. So have Alpha, Moreno, Will Take Charge and others, though.

At the end of the day, though, Mott is heady and he will place her in the right spot.

Assuming most of everyone that we think will show up does, there is simply no appeal to being 10/1 in that Classic when you can be 2/5 in the Distaff, and Mott knows it.


I agree, but I will wait till the race is drawn before I draw a line through any horses. Bottom line is that I trust Mott as well, if he enters her, at least he thinks she has a shot.....
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby Kay16 » Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:23 am

dustino140 wrote:
Kay16 wrote:You've never made any effort to hide the fact you don't believe someone can be a fan and also be level headed about their opinion. That's fine, but let's not start acting like you personally know someone to know when they are being emotional or not.

So the race doesn't set up for RD because she likes to be near the front, guess that means Game on Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic, Moreno, Palace Malice should all skip the race as well? Fort Larned though I do believe he's probably the best horse on talent running right now, has one race this year back in June to prove he's even still in form, Game on Dude throws in the towel any time anyone tries to throw some work at him on the front, Moreno well you can't actually think he has any chance period in the Classic do you? MMM is another with very questionable consistency, and Cross Traffic may or may not be gasping for air in the stretch going a 1 1/4 especially after dealing with a hot pace. One thing RD has proven that many in the Classic haven't is, she'll take pressure going 46 and run all day. But everyone loves to automatically assume a really hot pace is going to come to play when there's a bunch of "speed horses". Half the time it doesn't even happen. Speed is where you want to be at SA.


Honestly (and no offense), but your posts are showing that you know anything about pace or race dynamic. I'm not saying Moreno, Mucho Macho Man or Cross Traffic are horses I'd bet in the Classic, and I don't think any of them will win. However, that doesn't mean they aren't going to be pace factors. If Cross Traffic and Mucho Macho Man hooked Royal Delta and they all went :46 and 1:08 4/5, it wouldn't matter much if they "didn't have a chance" anyway, because all three would be out of gas at the quarter pole. I think it's very dangerous to look at Royal Delta's PPs and say she can "take pressure going 46 and run all day." That's actually barely true. In her last 10 races, the two times Royal Delta went a half in :46 2/5 or less were the closest two winning margins of victory in that lot, and that's when she was facing My Miss Aurelia, Tiz Miz Sue and those types. She has never proven that she can go :46 against a Grade 1 caliber male horse like Game On Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic or Palace Malice and go on with it, let alone all 4 of them. There is a massive difference there.

As to your assertion that Game On Dude "throws in the towel any time anyone tries to throw some work at him on the front," you're basing that off ONE race, and it's not even true. Go watch what he did in the 2011 Classic and tell me if you still think that statement is accurate.

Like I said, right now the horse I think I'll be looking at for the Classic is Flat Out, assuming 99 of 100 factors line up.


Please don't assume I was saying something I wasn't. When I said she has proven she can go fast early and stay late, she has. I never said she has proven it against males. Doesn't mean she can't. Doesn't mean she can. PM hasn't proven he can against the likes of Game on Dude, Cross Traffic, or MMM. Cross Traffic looked like he was crawling home when he had to do it in 47, 1:10 in the Whitney going 1 1/8. If you're going to point out her questions or doubts, don't do it in a manner that says no one else has the same amount of questions. It's not just about what she can or can't do, it's about what her competition can or can't do as well. This is why races are run.

Now you're the one who is showing a lack of knowledge. Throws in the towel was a bit of an exaggeration sure. But you are aware that he lost to Drosselmeyer in the 2011 Classic right? He lost in a performance that would have been up the track against this years males. That was one of the slowest BCC's we've ever seen. Ruler on Ice, a miler named Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Headache, Rattlesnake Bridge, Ice Box, Havre de Grace talented in her own right but not a true 1 1/4 horse and definitely didn't appear to run her best. He threw in the towel when he had to rate behind horses in last years Classic. Sure he didn't break as sharp as expected, but it doesn't matter what caused him to have to rate, the fact is he wasn't able to when he needed to. 2012 PC, he had to rate behind horses, he lost to Dullahan. 2011 HWGC, faced pressure from a horse like Twirling Candy, though valiant, he lost. 2011 PC, had to rate, he lost. This years Charlestown, had to rate, almost lost to Ron the Greek and Clubhouse Ride a horse he's been dominating all year. I know you'll try to say it was the track, but I don't see the proof of that. None of those races was he able to run away like he has against the very average fields he's been facing this year with things all his way. Whether the races he's lost or almost lost were because the competition was tougher, or he lost because he isn't as dominate when facing better fields with pressure or having to rate. Fact is, he has never proven to be near as dominant when either of those scenarios are involved. Maybe it's all just a coincidence?

Good luck with Flat Out. 25-8-5-4, 6 wins at Belmont, only 2 outside of it back in 2010. Hey if you get a good price, go for it. He did finish 3rd last year. But not sure it's fair to pick on RD when you're picking a horse that has a very hard time winning outside of Belmont.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby Admin » Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:26 am

dustino140 wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Sorry MOT, tha makes no sense. They aren't controlling the pace.

And they have said more times than I have hair follicles they want to keep her in th Distaff. Wishful thinking means nothing.


I think it's a toss up - run as the 1/5 favorite against a bunch of fillies/mares that she has already beaten, or run on the pace with Cross Traffic, Game On Dude, Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man, Paynter and Palace Malice. I appreciate the fact that the people who see Royal Delta every day know where she fits, yet find amusement that the people who watch her on TV refuse to accept that. Mott has a ton of good horses in his barn...he's got a much better read on how they stack up, what they do best, etc.

Flat Out may well win this year's Classic.


Aren't these the same connections who sent her to Dubai a second time? That blows up this part of your argument (in addition to fact that outsiders can indeed judge accurately a horses's chances in a field).

Otherwise I agree with you. I'd give zero chance of winning the Classic. Look at the females who've won over top males in dirt routes and you'll find most did it on the front or were deep closers, reducing the pace and physical pressures.
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Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

Postby amfuller » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:05 am

A.P. Indy's ready to race in the 2013 Classic. :lol:
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