Justify

MySaladDays
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Sat May 26, 2018 12:19 am

You said they can make a load of $$ off this horse.....winstar could make a lot more $$ keeping him to breed themselves...so this still doesn't make sense to me.
MySaladDays
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Sat May 26, 2018 12:25 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:It's not like they're being asked to do something they don't enjoy.
You really think this? Anthropromorphizing. Do you have any idea how hard it is on a horse to shuttle between hemispheres 2x a year and that it's a grueling schedule?

I have often wished that above all, I am never reincarnated as a race horse. For so many many reasons.
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Ballerina
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Sat May 26, 2018 12:46 am

MySaladDays wrote:You said they can make a load of $$ off this horse.....winstar could make a lot more $$ keeping him to breed themselves...so this still doesn't make sense to me.
Yeah, but they get the money all at once by selling.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat May 26, 2018 3:04 am

MSD: You really think this? Anthropromorphizing.

Well, I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek. That's why I added the :P , and the remark about poor War Emblem.
I do think that a stallion gets a certain satisfaction from breeding, even if it is just Nature's way to encourage him to perpetuate his species.
However, shuttling is a whole different topic. Shipping a horse long distances can come with risks, and maybe not every stallion has the mind or the constitution for shuttling.
The next two weeks should be rather interesting, as we wait to see who actually gets the rights to Justify. And whether Winstar, CHC, etc. wait until the Belmont to see if they're selling a dual-classic winner...or the 13th Triple Crown champion. How much money over the rumored $60 million is that crown worth? :?
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Treve
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Sat May 26, 2018 5:18 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:MSD: You really think this? Anthropromorphizing.

I do think that a stallion gets a certain satisfaction from breeding, even if it is just Nature's way to encourage him to perpetuate his species.
There is such a thing as too much of a good thing. With the volume of mares that studs see in a season these days, many of them are exhausted by the end of it. Obviously you can force a stallion to breed if he doesn't want to, but I do think it can be gruelling.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
tcw
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Sat May 26, 2018 1:21 pm

Justify on the CD track this Saturday morning:

https://twitter.com/DRFMcGee
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Big Ten
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Sat May 26, 2018 3:51 pm

I'm totally cool with Audible not being entered in the Belmont. Stupid if the owners lost a $25M bonus by beating their own horse with their own horse. Audible wasn't a mortal lock to win the Belmont anyway looking at his predigree.

I do like Justify's chances to win the Triple Crown a little more though. I wouldn't say he's a mortal lock either knowing he could be exhausted from this compressed schedule. I'm still not betting the Belmont. I don't want to jinx Justify. Just kick back and enjoy.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Ballerina
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Sun May 27, 2018 8:56 am

Steve Heuertz's photo of Justify's leaping is now available for purchase

https://www.etsy.com/listing/603177754/ ... shed_alert

It's pricey, but it's an 11 x 14 and $10 is donated to Racetrack Chaplaincy of America
barbaro111
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Sun May 27, 2018 9:29 am

Ballerina wrote:Steve Heuertz's photo of Justify's leaping is now available for purchase

https://www.etsy.com/listing/603177754/ ... shed_alert

It's pricey, but it's an 11 x 14 and $10 is donated to Racetrack Chaplaincy of America
that is quite an amazing photo-- unfortunately I don't have any room left on my walls in my computer room because they are
covered with framed photos of American Pharoah---
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Retrospectiv
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Sun May 27, 2018 9:46 am

Barbara Livingston's wonderful photo has also been released in print. She said on her FB she'll be releasing more prints, just didn't want to do too many at 1st and not have them all sell. She's also donating $10 from each print to the Race Track Chaplaincy of America.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/039-Jumpin-039 ... true&rt=nc
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Ballerina
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Sun May 27, 2018 10:58 am

Big Ten wrote:I'm totally cool with Audible not being entered in the Belmont. Stupid if the owners lost a $25M bonus by beating their own horse with their own horse. Audible wasn't a mortal lock to win the Belmont anyway looking at his predigree.

I do like Justify's chances to win the Triple Crown a little more though. I wouldn't say he's a mortal lock either knowing he could be exhausted from this compressed schedule. I'm still not betting the Belmont. I don't want to jinx Justify. Just kick back and enjoy.
You're a big fan of Justify, but you're still hedging? Standing in the middle of the road gets you hit by oncoming traffic from both directions. As a fan, you should have 100% faith that he's going to win. Either he's going to win or he's not going to win. Make up your mind.
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Charlie
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Sun May 27, 2018 11:42 am

Ballerina wrote:
Big Ten wrote:I'm totally cool with Audible not being entered in the Belmont. Stupid if the owners lost a $25M bonus by beating their own horse with their own horse. Audible wasn't a mortal lock to win the Belmont anyway looking at his predigree.

I do like Justify's chances to win the Triple Crown a little more though. I wouldn't say he's a mortal lock either knowing he could be exhausted from this compressed schedule. I'm still not betting the Belmont. I don't want to jinx Justify. Just kick back and enjoy.
You're a big fan of Justify, but you're still hedging? Standing in the middle of the road gets you hit by oncoming traffic from both directions. As a fan, you should have 100% faith that he's going to win. Either he's going to win or he's not going to win. Make up your mind.

That doesn't make sense to me. As a fan, I should never question an athletes ability to win?
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Ballerina
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Sun May 27, 2018 11:56 am

Charlie wrote:
That doesn't make sense to me. As a fan, I should never question an athletes ability to win?
That's correct. Don't confuse me with your facts. My mind's made up. All that can happen is I'd be wrong.
stark
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Sun May 27, 2018 12:02 pm

Ballerina wrote:
That's correct. Don't confuse me with your facts. My mind's made up. All that can happen is I'd be wrong.
That reminds me of an old friend's betting strategy when sitting at the OTB.....I asked who he was playing this race and he said he was just making mind bets, not any real money......what's the worst that could happen, I lose my mind :lol:
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Ballerina
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Sun May 27, 2018 12:11 pm

stark wrote:
Ballerina wrote:
That's correct. Don't confuse me with your facts. My mind's made up. All that can happen is I'd be wrong.
That reminds me of an old friend's betting strategy when sitting at the OTB.....I asked who he was playing this race and he said he was just making mind bets, not any real money......what's the worst that could happen, I lose my mind :lol:
Here's the deal. When you put $100 win bet down on a horse, you feel it in your bones the horse is going to win. Same difference. Oh, and by the way, I'm no paper better.
stark
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Sun May 27, 2018 12:25 pm

Ballerina wrote:
stark wrote:
Ballerina wrote:
That's correct. Don't confuse me with your facts. My mind's made up. All that can happen is I'd be wrong.
That reminds me of an old friend's betting strategy when sitting at the OTB.....I asked who he was playing this race and he said he was just making mind bets, not any real money......what's the worst that could happen, I lose my mind :lol:
Here's the deal. When you put $100 win bet down on a horse, you feel it in your bones the horse is going to win. Same difference. Oh, and by the way, I'm no paper better.
And then I have this other friend, a UCLA grad that we go to quite a few Bruin football games together, he bets 100 on the opponent, figures either way he goes home in a good mood :lol:
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Ballerina
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Sun May 27, 2018 12:39 pm

[quote="stark"]
And then I have this other friend, a UCLA grad that we go to quite a few Bruin football games together, he bets 100 on the opponent, figures either way he goes home in a good mood :lol:[/quote

You should take a vacation once in a while instead of continually trolling other people's posts.

My remark was specifically directed at Big Ten who has vacillated so much about Justify with so may scenarios that it makes my head hurt. First - he's the greatest since sliced bread, then not so sure - he was tired he didn't win by much, now it's he has a good chance. For goodness sake, take a stance, make a decision. Fans don't vacillate.

Image
stark
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Sun May 27, 2018 1:37 pm

Ballerina wrote:
My remark was specifically directed at Big Ten
Sorry, I didn't realize anybody actually read those dissertations.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Sun May 27, 2018 1:41 pm

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-beye ... ry-justify
We are obviously dealing with a small sample size, but I found two things interesting. First, the only one of these 10 Kentucky Derby/Preakness winners since 1997 who improved Beyer-wise from the Preakness to the Belmont was the only one who completed the Triple Crown sweep – American Pharoah. However, as I noted above, you have to be careful with American Pharoah’s Preakness Beyer, and it’s best not to stake your life on his three-point improvement off the Preakness in the Belmont.

Of course, I’ll Have Another didn’t start in the 2012 Belmont, so we don’t know if he would have earned a lower Beyer in the Belmont like every other horse on this list except for Charismatic. Charismatic matched the 107 Beyer he got in the 1999 Preakness in the Belmont, but it’s easy to think that with a fair shake, he might have done better. Don’t forget, Charismatic suffered a career-ending injury finishing third in his Belmont and was pulled up just past the wire.

One other thing I found intriguing on the second table is how the two horses who tailed off the most significantly Beyer-wise from the Derby though the Preakness (I’m leaving out American Pharoah for reasons already noted twice), as Justify did going from a 103 at Churchill to that 97, are the two who performed the worst in the Belmont.

War Emblem in 2002 fell off five Beyer points from the Derby to the Preakness, and finished a distant eighth in the Belmont after stumbling at the start, getting an 82 Beyer. Big Brown fell off nine points from the Derby to the Preakness, and he was distanced, and eased in the Belmont.

Now, if you still want to feel all warm and fuzzy about Justify’s prospects in the Belmont and for a sweep of the Triple Crown, go right ahead. There is plenty of reason to. Maybe Justify just needed to get a sub-par race out of his system, and it says a lot that he was able to win a race like the Preakness while delivering the weakest performance of his still-brief career, at least from a Beyer standpoint. And while history suggests Justify won’t run appreciably faster in the Belmont – take another look at that second table – no one in his class has yet run faster than he. Even if Justify doesn’t run especially fast in the Belmont, chances are no one else in the field is capable of running faster.

But you can literally see in the tables above why a lot of folks will be betting against him on Belmont Day.


That's why I'm not betting the Belmont. It's the TC leg I plan to avoid. Don't want to bet on him to end my streak but don't want to bet against him. If he was 3-1, it's still a bad bet. I like Justify's chances a little more. Will still only watch and avoid jinxing him.
** One thing is for certain, Justify’s path to a Triple Crown was made easier when it was announced Friday that Audible, winner of the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, a rallying third in the Kentucky Derby, and the one many considered to be Justify’s biggest threat in the Belmont, will not start.

Justify and Audible share common ownership and I don’t blame the owners for making the decision they did. I’d make the same decision if I were in their shoes, and I think every other sane person would, too. Sure, it’s not ideal that Justify won’t be facing the best competition available in the Belmont, but if he wins, the memory of that will quickly fade. And let’s not forget that Justify was clearly superior to Audible when they met for the first time in the Derby.

But I wish Audible’s connections would have said he was passing only because of common ownership instead of also saying Audible would be “freshened” for a summer campaign. I’d be worried about Audible if he really needed to be freshened up.

Here’s why: Audible was coming off a more-than-eight-week rest when he won the Holy Bull. He then had eight weeks between the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby, five weeks between that and the Kentucky Derby, and he would have had another five weeks into the Belmont.

Not exactly a demanding schedule.
I don't recall Coaltown entering the Preakness and Belmont to prevent his more famous stablemate from winning the Triple Crown. The details get hazy over time. We only truly remember the winners.

Years from now, nobody will remember Audible not being entered in the Belmont. Stuff like that becomes trivial like Coaltown not being entered in the last two legs. Just trivial ammo for the harshest critics.

Remember ten years ago how much hype Casino Drive (Japan) got because some people didn't want Rick Dutrow to win the TC? He got scratched for the Belmont and then never won again after that.

That's how trivial Audible not being entered in the Belmont or Justify's regressing Beyer figures will be years from now. It's a financial decision and a very acceptable one at that.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Kurenai
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Sun May 27, 2018 2:37 pm

For me it's quite simple: if he isn't too exhausted he will win the Triple Crown. I know a very talented horse when I see one, he has the ability to win it, no doubt about that. The only doubt that I have is that they are maybe asking too much from him in such a short time. That can only be answered once the race is over. I am a fan, had the same opinion from the beginning.

I don't have the "knowing" feeling in the gut unfortunately, wish I would have, it would make things so much more exciting. (Last horses I had that was Shared Belief and Zenyatta...) I'm still rooting for him though!

And good for you Ballerina that you have it, hope he proves you right!
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