The Preakness

Re: The Preakness

Postby Tessablue » Fri May 19, 2017 10:07 am

I'm also having a really tough time with Cloud Computing. I've really liked him from a talent standpoint for a few months now, but it's asking a lot and his previous races have had a number of extenuating circumstances. Brown wouldn't send a horse this inexperienced without having a lot of confidence in him, and his races in the Gotham (second race and right up on a very fast pace) and Wood (raced against a speed bias) are certainly better than they look on paper. However, the Wood as a whole is looking quite poor in retrospect, and he isn't a strong finisher. I think he might be prominent heading for home but fade late.

Honestly though, I think there's a very substantial talent gap between Always Dreaming and the rest of the this field. I'm just looking at who might be most likely to finish behind him, and right now Cloud Computing is one of the horses I'm thinking of throwing in there, along with Hence/ Classic Empire/ Mo. I agree that closers are up against it in here, but I do think Hence will be closer up than expected.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby stark » Fri May 19, 2017 10:58 am

There's no rule that says you have to bet every race and I'm very tempted to pass on this one.

I think we may have already seen the best race the favorites will ever run at age three, so I'm looking for a stranger danger who hasn't performed his best yet.

Just so that I have a rooting interest while watching NBC blimp shots, hat shots, blackeyed susan shots (vodka, rum, orange, pineapple etc) I'll be making a small wager on a 30-1 shot that's improving leaps and bounds in his four races so far. Just need his new jockey Joel Rosario to keep that pattern going one more time, there's no need to bounce now. Have a hunch he won't let MULTIPLIER be too far back early on, and he's shown an ability to close strongly when the real running begins, why not take a shot?

Hoping the G3 no-points Illinois Derby with low Beyers will help keep his price up there, there's no doubt he's an improving sort, and if excellent sheets reader Ron Anderson thinks he's worth a shot, who am I to argue. Win bet and exacta boxes will be my play, #1 MULTIPLIER
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby peeptoad » Fri May 19, 2017 11:48 am

stark wrote:There's no rule that says you have to bet every race and I'm very tempted to pass on this one.

I think we may have already seen the best race the favorites will ever run at age three, so I'm looking for a stranger danger who hasn't performed his best yet.

Just so that I have a rooting interest while watching NBC blimp shots, hat shots, blackeyed susan shots (vodka, rum, orange, pineapple etc) I'll be making a small wager on a 30-1 shot that's improving leaps and bounds in his four races so far. Just need his new jockey Joel Rosario to keep that pattern going one more time, there's no need to bounce now. Have a hunch he won't let MULTIPLIER be too far back early on, and he's shown an ability to close strongly when the real running begins, why not take a shot?

Hoping the G3 no-points Illinois Derby with low Beyers will help keep his price up there, there's no doubt he's an improving sort, and if excellent sheets reader Ron Anderson thinks he's worth a shot, who am I to argue. Win bet and exacta boxes will be my play, #1 MULTIPLIER

I like Multiplier too, stark. I hope he can close for a piece on that track. If he gets beaten he either just isn't ready for this level yet, or he will have too much ground to make up. imo.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby peeptoad » Fri May 19, 2017 11:55 am

Tessablue wrote:I'm also having a really tough time with Cloud Computing. I've really liked him from a talent standpoint for a few months now, but it's asking a lot and his previous races have had a number of extenuating circumstances. Brown wouldn't send a horse this inexperienced without having a lot of confidence in him, and his races in the Gotham (second race and right up on a very fast pace) and Wood (raced against a speed bias) are certainly better than they look on paper. However, the Wood as a whole is looking quite poor in retrospect, and he isn't a strong finisher. I think he might be prominent heading for home but fade late.

That was kind of my gut feeling on him, but I just can't get a clear read based on paper. I'm likely using him underneath in the exacta and, like some others, I like Multplier as my long shot.

I think I'm most likely going to just play an exacta using some combination of the 1,2,4,5,6, and 10 mainly focusing on the 4,5,10 for the win. Then #1 WPS since I can't not bet my hunch bets these days. And it's a saver of sorts in case anything weird happens.

I'm actually not entirely convinced that Always Dreaming is that much better than a horse like Classic Empire (for example), but he may very well be. He's probably best right now (in form and coming off his best race yet), but on numbers he's not really far and away better than some others in this crop... yet anyway.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Big Ten » Fri May 19, 2017 12:33 pm

Two-horse race or 2010 Preakness deja vu?

A Derby winner who got a perfect trip winning on mud trained by Pletcher. A 2YO champion who had a bad post and troubled trip. A speedy new shooter.

Always Dreaming = Super Saver?
Classic Empire = Lookin At unLucky?
Conquest Mo Money = First Dude?


2010 Preakness
1. Lookin At Lucky
2. First Dude
3. Jackson Bend

Lookin At Lucky-First Dude exacta paid $188. Wow... Times 5.5 for me this year with #5 over #10.

188 x 5.5 = $1,034 Mo Money indeed!

The #4 is my lucky number. It was the number Zenyatta wore in the 2009 BC Classic. I was born on the fourth of December. Always Dreaming 4ever!

My second favorite number among the single digits? #1, point to sky - Multiplier. Would love a #1 to run 2nd again like Lookin At Lee did two weeks ago.

To create some doubts on Always Dreaming...

Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez have never won the Preakness. In fact, only four guys in this field have won the Preakness. Steve Asmussen twice with Curlin and Rachel. Drug O'Neill with I'll Have Another and Nyquist. Mike Smith on Prairie Bayou. Javier Castellano on Bernardini..

Gunnevera (Smith)
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)
Hence (Asmussen)
Cloud Computing (Castellano)
Term of Art (O'Neill)

Like the NBA, the Preakness seems to be a race filled with dominant winners. Pat Day won this race five times. Bob Baffert has won it six times.

It is also why I was kinda disappointed when Royal Mo got injured. Gary Stevens has won the Preakness three times. I feel more confident when I know they have been in the Preakness winner's circle before.

Look at the winning jockeys and trainers. Same people won it over and over...

http://www.foxsports.com/horse-racing/s ... eet-051217

Since 1983, 31 of the 33 Preakness winners ran in the Kentucky Derby, while 18 was a Derby loser. Good news for Classic Empire, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee, and Hence.

Had to rewatch the 1990 and 1995 Preakness when Summer Squall and Timber Country turned the tables on the Derby winners.

Will Johnny V choke on Always Dreaming like he did on Kitten's Joy in the 2004 BC Turf when KJ looked like a mortal lock? Will Pletcher go 0-9?

Underlays -
Always Dreaming - I believe he should go off at 2-1 at least. As good as he is to me, favorites winning this has gone down. The good stat to see is the last 20 runnings, 10 Derby winners did win the Preakness or 50% since Silver Charm.

The bad news is since Alysheba, only 13 out of 30 Preakness winners were the favorites. Favorites had a nice run between 2001-2009 when they won five straight and seven out of nine runnings. Since Rachel, it went down with 2 out of 7. Willing to take AD at 3-5 after what we saw when Orb and Nyquist lost at 3-5?

Always Dreaming seems to be very good, but he isn't anymore dominant than what I saw from Big Brown, California Chrome, or American Pharoah during their prep wins. And those three already had a previous Preakness winning jockey (Kent D, Victor). Baffert had already won the Preakness five times before American Pharoah.

Classic Empire - Will be overbet based on his bad luck and reputation. He should go off at 6-1 if Conquest Mo Money who he barely beat prior will go off at 15-1. Take out the Derby and add his Holy Bull + Arkansas Derby speed figures and those combined numbers still doesn't make the Top 5.

Since turning 3, he has never rounded back to the level of his BCJ performance. Bad luck, too many excuses, or has he reached his ceiling? He lost over 8 lengths to AD but had to run 9+ lengths further than him. I told ya #14 is NOT a good post. That, and a big horse like Irish War Cry veering in. I also don't believe Mark Casse is a very good trainer when it comes to sophomores and TC trail planning.

The media can hype this up to be a two-horse race between #4 vs #5, but both will be underlays at whatever odds you take them.

Gunnevera - Mike Smith is on him which is why his odds will be lower than Conquest Mo Money but this horse doesn't look like he improved or will get the pace setup. His odds should be higher than CMM as he hasn't beaten anyone worth noting except a slightly overhyped Irish War Cry and when Classic Empire wasn't 100%. Gunnevera won't get the pace and has finished behind Classic Empire and Lookin At Lee twice already.

Lookin At Lee - He simply got the perfect trip to run 2nd but many Derby runner-ups don't do well next out. He and Gunny should be battling for the 3rd betting choice. He is also the deepest closer in the field in a race that will lack pace.

Cloud Computing - He is training beautifully from what I read and has Castellano (Preakness champ) on his back, but I don't believe the hype. His numbers look inflated and I don't believe he has the class coming from the Aqueduct preps. Nice looking colt though. So is Irish War Cry and look what happened.

The worst horse in the field comes from Drug O'Neill.

Value -
Conquest Mo Money - First Duuude! 15-1 when he should actually be the 3rd choice in this race which lacks speed.

Multiplier - Don't trust Hawthorne and he barely beat Hedge Fund who finished behind Hence and CMM. Watch the Sir Barton if HF can flatter him. Simply can't ignore those high numbers and his BSF for the Illinois Derby was upgraded from 88 to 94. On par with Classic Empire. Might be running late for a piece.

Let' do this! Ready to rock tomorrow! A stretch duel between Always Dreaming vs Classic Empire may happen tomorrow. But I'm covered if one of them doesn't show up like what we saw in the 2010 Preakness or 2017 Pegasus. Heck, if neither wins I am still covered as long as one of them runs 2nd. I would still lose money but not all of it.

Keep The Dream Alive or The Empire Strikes Back?

Lock-in
1. Always Dreaming
2. Classic Empire
3. Conquest Mo Money
4. Multiplier

Total wager = $120

$1 Exacta Box ($48)
1,4,5
2,4,5
3,4,5
4,5,6
4,5,7
4,5,8
4,5,9
4,5,10

$21 Exacta Box ($42)
4,5

$10 Exacta ($40)
4, 5 w/ 1, 10

AD over CE pays $15 x 14.5 = $217
CE over AD pays $20 x 14.5 = $290

AD or CE over Multiplier or CMM x 5.5 can pay anywhere between $500-$1000+. Especially if Classic Empire wins at 3-1. The betting public will go crazy betting down on the Derby winner when he should be 2-1 at the very least. I would love Always Dreaming to win the Triple Crown but he isn't a mortal lock tomorrow. Just remember a trainer and jockey who are still winless in the Preakness is connected to AD and never forget 2010.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Tessablue » Fri May 19, 2017 1:35 pm

peeptoad wrote:That was kind of my gut feeling on him, but I just can't get a clear read based on paper. I'm likely using him underneath in the exacta and, like some others, I like Multplier as my long shot.

I think I'm most likely going to just play an exacta using some combination of the 1,2,4,5,6, and 10 mainly focusing on the 4,5,10 for the win. Then #1 WPS since I can't not bet my hunch bets these days. And it's a saver of sorts in case anything weird happens.

I'm actually not entirely convinced that Always Dreaming is that much better than a horse like Classic Empire (for example), but he may very well be. He's probably best right now (in form and coming off his best race yet), but on numbers he's not really far and away better than some others in this crop... yet anyway.

Yeah I'm having a lot of trouble with the numbers this year. Multiplier is slow on Beyers (even after the recent boost) but a win threat on BRIS ratings, Hence and Mo have that retroactive boost from the Sunland Derby, Classic Empire hasn't actually run fast at any point this year but hasn't had the trips, and Always Dreaming has three races with potential conflating factors- an outrageously slow pace in that allowance, an evidently lightning-quick track in the FL Derby (fastest raw time in decades, but he would have had to approach or break Arrogate's record to get a mere 105), and an impossible track with no points of reference in the Derby (in the unlikely event that it's worth anything, my own system gives him about a 105 in the Derby and slots him in just behind Smarty Jones).

The reason I think he's so tough to beat is because his skillset is excellent. He breaks very quickly, listens to his rider, and finishes very strongly. It's this last point that really makes him stand out in my eyes- it's a limited sample, but he has not been outfinished by a single horse this year and that's pretty extraordinary for a pace horse. Lookin at Lee was the only horse to make up ground in the stretch in the Derby and it was just a quarter of a length- Big Brown, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, and War Emblem are the only other Derby winners in the past 25 years who were forwardly-placed early but lost little or no ground to competitors in the stretch. He'll only be beaten on the square by a horse can finish better, and I don't really see any of those here so long as he is at his best.

I am interested in Multiplier though, he has a lot of room to move up.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Kennedy » Fri May 19, 2017 5:12 pm

I took a look at the field made my analysis and found that I'm actually in agreement with most people here. The Preakness isn't all that compelling as a race this year and it seems like Always Dreaming has very few reasons why he'd lose. Multiplier looks like the nicest option for a dark horse.

I came up with all of this independently and was somewhat surprised to come here and find that it's the popular opinion!

If I'm looking for a stranger who is even more strange than Multiplier I might look to Senior Investment. If you look at the last 5 races of each competitor he and the Derby winner are the only horses to have hit the line first on 4 occasions. He's really slow by every measurement we have but he likes to get home in front and worked what was perhaps the first bullet of his life since his last race.

You need some imagination for this one but I might try to use Senior Investment. He likely needs some help (ie...a good pace and other horses running poorly) but maybe he can inflate some exotics.

Always Dreaming
Senior Investment
Cloud Computing
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Somnambulist » Fri May 19, 2017 6:08 pm

Kind of surprised how little respect Classic Empire seems to be getting semi universally.

Im not betting this one but Gunn has looked great to me and bigger than before the Derby. Maybe it's just good drugs.

I'm really crossing my fingers for a TC attempt. There is no better sports time than the 3 weeks leading up to one.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Izvestia » Fri May 19, 2017 6:56 pm

I agree Som. He ran a creditable 4th considering he had a pretty rough start. I think he can win it. Also think Gunnevera has a shot. Always Dreaming has trained well and looks good, but I think he's beatable.
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Re: The Preakness

Postby Spahny » Fri May 19, 2017 7:05 pm

There are quite a few public handicappers that like Classic Empire. Me too at 3-1. Always Dreaming will not go down without a fight though. The rest of them are a reach.
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