September 30th

Ladies Classic
1. Icon Project (1)
2. Zenyatta (2)
3. Music Note (3)
4. Careless Jewel (4)
5. Acoma (5)

It’s the calm before the storm in the Ladies Classic division. All five of the mares should be in action over the next two weeks although probably few of them will face each other. Zenyatta will go to the Lady’s Secret, Careless Jewel to the Cotillion, Music Note will take on the Beldame and I fully expect to see Acoma in the Spinster. Icon Project is the undecided wild card. She will either go in the Beldame or the Spinster and if she is to retain that #1 ranking she probably shouldn’t lose either race.

The Beldame makes sense because Icon Project has already performed very well there but connections will be curious about her synthetic track form so the Spinster is a draw as well. One caution I would make is that Keeneland’s form has not necessarily held up in California. They are very different surfaces despite both being synthetic. You’ll see a lot more turf horses having success at Keeneland than you will at Santa Anita. The good news for Icon Project is that she’s already proven she can handle turf and dirt. She is better on the dirt but turf has not been a problem.

Zenyatta’s inactivity has created a scenario where people are actually forgetting that she’s quite a mare. The close call in her last start only added fuel to the fire. But make no mistake Zenyatta is still a running machine. It would take a lifetime best effort from any of these fillies to beat her.

European Rainbow View does enter my thinking for this race but at this point I’m not willing to accept that she is automatically as good as the rest of these. Being European does not entitle her to some higher level of performance. I think many Europeans will be overbet this year because people are like sheep. They’re going to chase the perception that Turf horses and Europeans specifically have a major advantage. As always it should be evaluated on a case by case basis. In Rainbow View’s case were looking at a horse that has mostly underachieved after a scintillating juvenile campaign. The surface switch might help wake her up but I have legitimate questions about how good she really is.

Filly and Mare Turf
1. Dar Re Mi (1)
2. Midday (2)
3. Forever Together (3)
4. Pure Clan (5)
5. Gozzip Girl (4)

I didn’t make any major changes to the rankings this week other than flip flopping Pure Clan and Gozzip Girl. The reason I did so is because of the news that Gozzip Girl is headed to Keeneland for the QE II instead of staying at Belmont for the Flower Bowl. I would have much preferred to see her against older horses prior to the Breeders’ Cup. I also like the timing of the Flower Bowl better. The QE II Challenge Cup is three weeks before the Breeders’ Cup whereas the Flower Bowl gives you five weeks. Pure Clan incidentally will be in the Flower Bowl and if it comes up firm she should have a big shot. She’s not the kind of filly that I expect to see in the winners circle regularly. She just has to run well to show that she’s in good form.

Forever Together is not ranked in third because of her failing in Canada. I had actually moved her to third prior to that race and I expected a sub par performance on a track that she just doesn’t handle as well. Some just thought it was the ground that did her in last year so they’re puzzled as to why she didn’t win on firmer ground this year. I always suspected that it was the one turn configuration she didn’t like. In two turn races on the grass she is 5-5-0-0 with an average Beyer of 102.8. Around one turn she is 5-1-2-2 with and average Beyer of 95.8. Her only win around one turn on the grass was in a listed stakes at Arlington. You should see Forever Together back in form at Keeneland.

I do, however, think that Dar Re Mi and Midday might be better horses than Forever Together. Defending her crown against these Europeans might be extremely tough.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Ventura (1)
2. Informed Decision (2)
3. Indian Blessing (4)
4. Sara Louise (new)
5. Carlsbad (3)

Dropped: Game Face (5)

I was personally quite thrilled with the Gallant Bloom and despite the fact that it’s in vogue to doubt Indian Blessing on synthetics I’m going to step up and say that she has a real shot here. Indian Blessing had been favored in everyone of her lifetime starts until the Gallant Bloom where she was 1.40/1 to Sara Louise’s 1.35/1. Indian Blessing has never been longer odds than 1.80/1. It’s pretty incredible really. But at this years Filly and Mare Sprint you’re going to see 5/1 or higher on her. That represents great value on a horse that has missed a grand total of one exacta placing in her entire career.

She did have that terrible race at Hollywood, which is why the doubters abound but it was her first race back from Dubai. Those comeback efforts are often below par. It was also run over Hollywood’s brand of synthetic which of course does differ from Santa Anita’s. At Santa Anita she is actually 3-2-1-0. Her only loss came to Ventura in last year’s event when the pace was very sharp. Indian Blessing is a major threat to win this race and she may be the best value of her life.

I’ve dropped Game Face from my top 5 not through any fault of her own but due to the fact that Sara Louise and the Godolphin stable as a whole have really come on this fall. They also have Seventh Street for this race but I’m not as big a fan of hers. I’m not sure that she has the stuff to dig out a win when she needs to. Sara Louise is a horse that really impressed me last year. In fact I picked her to beat Rachel Alexandra in the Golden Rod because her move in the Pocahontas was so explosive. At the time I thought she was the filly that was destined for greatness. She has done little wrong as a 3yo. Although she hasn’t tried synthetics she looks like a good fit for them. She definitely has the potential to upset Ventura and Informed Decision who have looked nearly invincible for so long.

Juvenile Fillies
1. Beautician (1)
2. She Be Wild (2)
3. Blind Luck (3)
4. Awesome Maria (4)
5. Midst (5)

Dropped: Mi Sueno (2)

The news we received yesterday about the injury to Mi Sueno was pretty sad. Not only did she have a big chance in the Breeders’ Cup but she also might have turned into a very good horse. Now her entire career is in jeopardy.

Since Hot Dixie Chick is most likely not going to be attending the Breeders’ Cup party this race may seem like a consolation prize of sorts.

Beautician is still my #1 selection, I expect her to face off with She Be Wild in the Alcibiades. That ought to be an exciting contest. I think Beautician has been the better horse to date but the pint sized over achiever from Chicago can’t be taken too lightly. Wayne Catalano is very good with young horses.

So is Stanley Hough and I was very impressed with his Awesome Maria in the Matron. She just looks so physically imposing even at this early stage. She’s going to be a well built muscular filly. I like that she is able to break well and even keep pace early on in sprints but finishing is really her forte. I think two turns will be a good fit. The one downside to her is the schedule she is currently on. Not many horses these days run in the Matron, Frizette and Juvenile Fillies especially when they have to ship cross country. I don’t want her to come to the juvenile without a route prep race but most likely if she gets one her cautious trainer won’t be inclined to ship her to California. We’ll have to wait and see. She’s a good horse and she fully deserves to be on this list.

I’m really looking forward to the Breeders’ Cup this year. It’s not really that significant since I get really pumped for it every year but this time around I am especially intrigued by the large number of defending champions we have returning to try and capture Breeders’ Cup races once again.

Goldikova, Zenyatta, Ventura, Forever Together, Conduit and Desert Code are all on track to run in the Breeders’ Cup again. We actually also have Stardom Bound, Red Rocks, Indian Blessing and maybe Midshipman who have all won Breeders’ Cup races but won’t be defending champions this fall at Santa Anita.

The Breeders’ Cup has never had so many stars returning in a single year. Last year we had four (Curlin, Kip Deville, Ginger Punch, Midnight Lute) and that seemed like a big number but six is right over the top.

I decided to take a look back and see how defending champions in the past have fared. Since it’s inauguration the Breeders’ Cup has had 40 horses return to defend their titles in the same race the following year. Only 6 of them (15%) managed to be successful the second time around.

A flat $2 win bet on each of these entrants would have cost $80 and returned just $44.40 for a -44.5% loss.

45% of the defending champions did manage to hit the frame but they did so at an average price of 4.50/1.

You don’t get very much value out of them typically. These 40 horses won their Breeders’ Cup at an average price of 11/1 but they returned to defend their crowns at an average price of 6.20/1.

Four or five of the six defending champions could wind up being favored but the odds say that only one of them is likely to win. Which one would you pick if you had to choose only one?

I think I’d have to go with Goldikova.

These next three weeks are almost like the equivalent of the playoffs in other sports. We recognize that it’s not quite the championship yet but the next few weeks will shape and define the championships. A horse’s last prep before the Breeders’ Cup is a big deal. Hold Me Back already flubbed his last prep and is now being put away for the year. I’m always intrigued by the matchup’s in the prep races. It can be tough task finding out who might be facing who. Below is my best guess on the probable entrants for the 23 G-1 events being run over the next three weeks. Some of this is conjecture but most of it was gleaned from various articles. Hopefully some of the matchup’s on this list get you excited!

Vosburgh - Fabulous Strike, Munnings, Ready’s Echo, Go Go Shoot

Flower Bowl - Dynaforce, Caribbean Sunset, Criticism, Pure Clan, Lemonette, Leamington. Moneycantbuymelove, Queen of Hearts

Beldame - Icon Project, Music Note, Swift Temper, Unbridled Belle, Captain’s Lover, Briecat, Copper State, Morena

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - Gio Ponti, Presious Passion, Grand Couturier, Telling, Al Khali

Jockey Club Gold Cup - Summer Bird, Quality Road, Asiatic Boy, Dry Martini, Macho Again, Tizway, Sette E Mezzo

Alcibiades - She Be Wild, Beautician, Worstcasescenario

Breeders’ Futurity - Aspire, Aikenite

Oak Leaf - Blind Luck, Always a Princess, Pure Class, Softly Singing, La Nez

Norfolk - Lookin At Lucky, Dave in Dixie, Pulsion, John Scott, Court Mischief, Jung Man Scott, Smiling Tiger

Frizette - Hot Dixie Chick, Worstcasescenario, Awesome Maria

Champagne - Dublin, Gun Rock, Condemned, Not Macho Any More

Jamaica - Courageous Cat, Take the Points

First Lady - Forever Together, Tizaqueena

Shadwell Turf Mile - Justenuffhumor, Mr. Sidney

Spinster - Indescribable, Mushka

Lady’s Secret - Zenyatta, Cocoa Beach, Life Is Sweet, Anabaa’s Creation

Clement L Hirsch - Spring House, Sir Dave, Artiste Royal

Ancient Title - Gayego, Cost of Freedom, Talkin to Mom Roo, Atta Boy Roy

Yellow Ribbon - Magical Fantasy, Black Mamba, Life Is Sweet, Internallyflawless, Gotta Have Her

Goodwood - Tiago, Mine That Bird, Richard’s Kid, Parading, Colonel John, Chocolate Candy

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup - Gozzip Girl, Miss World, Hot Cha Cha, Shared Account, Keertana, Lady Shakespeare

E.P. Taylor - Princess Haya, Much Obliged, Points of Grace, Rutherienne, Salve Germania

Canadian International - Marsh Side, Marchfield, Champs Elysees, Ask, Sariska, Just As Well, Casual Conquest, Buccelletti, Jukebox Jury

Overview: It was a pretty quiet weekend. The Kentucky Cup series looked like it could have been a good preparation for Breeders’ Cup hopefuls but as the synthetic cloud settled it was pretty clear that no potential Breeders’ Cup winners were in action. Indescribable ran a decent race against poor competition but it was not a Ladies Classic caliber performance. Same with the Canadian colt El Brujo who took the KY Cup Sprint. Fatal Bullet was a Canadian based sprinter who followed the same path and was second in the Breeders’ Cup but El Brujo seems about 7 lengths inferior to where Fatal Bullet was last year. Hold Me Back was all the rage in the Classic but he never lifted a hoof in 6th place. Furthest Land and Dubious Miss both ran excellent races but it’s hard to see connections pushing onto the Classic with horses that had only previously attempted Graded Stakes company once. It was a good race but they’d both likely fit in better at the upcoming Keeneland meet. Maybe a race like the Fayette. It was Indian Blessing and Sara Louise who really put on a show. The Gallant Bloom was definitely the best race of the weekend.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Virtually no changes to these rankings because there were really very few Graded Stakes run this weekend. The next two weeks are among the most pivotal of the entire racing season. The contenders should really start to pull away from the pack with big points on the line in multiple Grade 1 events.

Power Rankings: Indian Blessing was the only major mover in this quiet week. She moved into second in the Female Sprinter division behind Informed Decision. Remember though that Ventura is only not a part of this division officially because she’s been more of a turf horse so far but a win at the Breeders’ Cup on the main track will put her back in here and bump Indian Blessing down a bit. Informed Decision and Ventura have been the best Female Sprinters this year but the defending champion Indian Blessing has been the best of the rest and her campaign has been somewhat unlucky.

Performance of the Week/Race of the Week: I couldn’t help but roll these two categories into one. The race of the week was obviously the Gallant Bloom Handicap. Indian Blessing’s part in the race was also the best performance of the week. It seemed like a bit of an awkward trip for Indian Blessing as she didn’t make the early pace and she had to make a somewhat premature move through a hole on the fence in order to avoid getting stuck down there. I thought she was beaten in the last 1/16th because she hadn’t really opened up and Sara Louise looked to be finishing the stronger. But Indian Blessing had obviously had enough of losing. Three in a row is quite a losing streak for a horse of her quality. The youngster Sara Louise just could not match the tenacity of this two time champion. Indian Blessing has been a real treat to follow throughout her career. I hope we all realize how rare it is to have a juvenile champion still running so well and so consistently at 4 years of age.

Flop of the Week: Hold Me Back was a major disappointment in the Kentucky Cup Classic. He has often been a “nearly” type of horse and bettors made him the favorite here because of his second place finish in the Travers. The competition didn’t look that great and he was the only horse with real Breeders’ Cup aspirations. Those aspirations had to have been choked out by the recycled rubber and wax. He was supposed to like the surface so what went wrong? Maybe he’s just not that good. Lucky Island and Songster also looked pretty bad in a minor stakes race at Belmont on Friday. At one time these were killers in the sprint division. Now they’re cheap fodder in allowance and listed stakes company.

Tip O’the Cap: It was pretty neat to see Gomez sweep the Kentucky Cup Stakes races. When I first noted him riding in the Classic I looked through the card to find out which horse he had probably flown into town to ride. I guess the correct answer is all of them. Those were his only three rides of the day and all of them were well timed moves from off the pace. Furthest Land and El Brujo only just got there and Gomez certainly made a difference with them. $240,820 in purse money and a trio of Graded Stakes wins is a pretty good day at the office.

KC Handicapping: Dubious Miss suffered a narrow defeat to Furthest Land who was astutely selected by the commentor Eric. Apparently Furthest Land had the best breeding for this race. He also happened to be well respected in my own Speed Ratings. The KSR identified 4 horses that were fast enough to win the KY Cup Classic. They ran 1, 2, 3 and 6 sweeping a $557 trifecta and a $69 exacta. Unfortunately I only focused on Dubious Miss, who I considered to be the strongest of the alternatives to the favorite. But Furthest Land and Sligovitz would have been good to throw on the ticket as well.

Weekly Record: 1(1)-0-1-0 (-$2.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 804(456)-138-127-102 (-$174.50 -10.85% ROI)

Kentucky Cup Classic
This is the only stakes race of note that caught my eye this weekend. It’s being billed as the perfect prep to get Hold Me Back to the Classic. I think it is a pretty decent spot for him and he’s also the best horse in the race. But I do think it might be worth opposing him because it’s his first try against older horses and he seems to need a bit of pace to run at. There are a few horses in this race that could set the pace but none of them are real speed balls and this could be a more tactical affair. I’m going to lean towards Dubious Miss because I think he is the best of the early pace/stalkers. Dubious Miss, like Hold Me Back, has a decent record on synthetics but has spent most of his career running on different surfaces. He gets Borel back in the saddle and interestingly enough he’s 5 for 5 with Borel and 1 for 8 with everyone else. Whatever Calvin says to him in the warm up it seems to do the trick. Last time out he sat behind a ridiculously slow pace and could not get to the winner but he did run a very good race. I hope he improves with a slightly better pace scenario and hopefully he has enough to hold off Hold Me Back in the final furlong.

Dubious Miss

It’s not often that a comment inspires a post on this blog but that’s mostly because only a few people leave comments. This particular comment was left at the Thoroughbred Champions homepage where this blog is also published.

Here is what Eric had to say in response to some negative comments I made about Justenuffhumor and his chances in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

“When I love a horse as much as Gone Astray or justenuffhumor, it is because of 1 reason. The absolute best bloodlines that the game has to offer. Inside information and smuggler gives me reason to believe that Gone Astray may be unbeatable when the phipps strike with him. The pensylvania derby 10 length win was the first step and I believe Gone Astray will prove it once again if entered in the BC. Justenuffhumor stems from a mare that made Kittens joy, precious kitten, and Dreaming of Anna. These names are special to say the least. Now Kiaran mclaughlin has his chance with this golden breeding and I am willing to give a gaurantee about justenuffhumor in a game where guarantees are hard to give. We shall see.”

Eric

I have nothing against the breeding side of the game but I do feel that breeding is misleading when it comes to specific races.

A primary focus on breeding is not precise enough for me. Yes it’s true that Gone Astray is regally bred. I’m not a breeding guy and I can easily see that but betting on him to fulfill that promise has been a losing venture.

Sure he ran huge in the Pennsylvania Derby but that was his 6th career route race and his first win in a non sprint event. Even if you cashed in Pennsylvania you lost overall while betting him in routes because he only paid $11.40. So right now you’d be down $0.60.

For me breeding is a good indicator of a horses possible overall potential. It can also give clues regarding a horses surface and distance preferences but I just can’t make a case for it to be the bedrock of my handicapping.

There are just too many well bred horses losing races that their bloodlines claim they should win. In can see why others differ in their approach though. They are looking at the specific career of a single horse whereas I’m focusing on one particular moment in time.

Justenuffhumor is a good horse and I think he’ll win his fair share of races but I view the Breeders’ Cup Mile as a race for specialists and he’s not a Mile specialist. It seems to me that 9f is actually his best distance. Unless he shows me something different in an 8f race I’m not going to be backing him for the win in the Breeders’ Cup.

Many will really disagree with me but I am always going to defer my opinion of a horse to what they’ve done on the track as opposed to what their bloodlines claim they could be.  To me bloodlines are just one piece of the puzzle and that piece becomes less significant as their career unfolds and they show what they can actually do. Fathers are often many things that their sons aren’t and vice versa.

September 23rd

Classic
1. Rail Trip (1)
2. Rip Van Winkle (2)
3. Mastercraftsman (3)
4. Einstein (4)
5. Parading (5)

No change to my Classic rankings this week although there could be some movement after this weekend. Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman could be in action at Ascot this weekend and of course that result could impact both their Classic ranking and even which Breeders’ Cup race they’re pointed at. Rip Van Winkle is the scariest horse right now, he just got good before his minor injury. If he come back in the same or better form he might find himself the top ranked horse in the Classic division.

Hold Me Back also runs in the Kentucky Cup Classic this weekend and a good performance from him puts him right in the mix. He and Summer Bird are already knocking on the door just below Parading so any flash of brilliance would be enough to see him upgraded. I like his closing style and also the fact that he’s been so effective on synthetic surfaces.

Turf
1. Fame And Glory (1)
2. Conduit (2)
3. Spanish Moon (new)
4. Gio Ponti (4)
5. Kite Wood (5)

Dropped: Tartan Bearer (3)

Tartan Bearer has unfortunately come up injured and will not be contesting the Breeders’ Cup. it’s a shame because he would have had a big impact.

I still see Fame And Glory as far and away the best horse in this group. I only hope his connections still want to bring him after the Arc.

Kite Wood may have lost the St. Leger to his stablemate Mastery but I think the Turf is still a great fit for him. I got the impression that the 14f St. Leger was a bit too far for him. I think he’s the best 12f Turf horse that the boys in blue have got and he should be given his chance in America.

Spanish Moon is a very interesting horse. He is a very talented son of El Prado but he’s had some mental problems with regards to the gate. He was actually barred from racing in England over the summer because of his antics. But no matter he has used that time to go undefeated in France. Why is he now ranked so high? The suspension in England has actually helped him because it means he’s been trained like a French horse instead of an English one. Most English horses are primed for a big summer. Royal Ascot in June, then the Eclipse, King George, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion stakes in September comprise the bulk of the season for top flight horses. Consequently a lot of English horses are out of gas by the fall. French horses by contrast are aimed at the Fall. That’s why Andre Fabre has such a great record in the Arc and Breeders’ Cup. Back to Spanish Moon, he hasn’t had any races between June and mid September. I think he’ll have a big fall. He’s been first or second in all of his last 6 races and his one experience on a North American-like track was a positive one. He lost by just a nose in the Dubai Sheema Classic.

A horse I won’t touch for this race is Just As Well. I know he earned a G-1 win last weekend but the form of that race was pretty poor. He’s a bet against if he shows up because he’s not in the same class as even Gio Ponti, let alone the top Europeans.

Mile
1. Goldikova (1)
2. Delegator (3)
3. Ghanaati (4)
4. Aqlaam (new)
5. Ferneley (new)

Dropped: Bribon (2), Rahy’s Attorney (5)

Who is the best miler in North America? My feeling is that it’s Gio Ponti followed closely by Ventura. Who is the best miler in North America that is pointing to the BC Mile? That’s a much tougher question to answer. I’m not necessarily sold on the fact that a European has to win the Mile this year but I’m honestly having trouble coming up with the name of a local that’s good enough to beat them. The Woodbine Mile was a bit of a dream crusher in that regard. I thought Bribon would run well enough to convince his connections to go. I thought the same for Rahy’s Attorney but both failed the test and both will now go down different paths that don’t include a stop at Santa Anita.

So who is left? Some people will really get behind Justenuffhumor. I am not on that boat at all. He would have to be extremely impressive in the Kelso or Keeneland Mile to change my mind. If he just wins like he has been doing I won’t be using him.

The European Aqlaam has made the list as a temporary stop gap. I’m not sure if he’s coming. I do know that he’s a solid horse and he’ll do until other contenders emerge.

I’ve tossed Ferneley on the list despite the fact that he’s not nominated because at least he’s shown that on occasion he can run a big race that puts him in the hunt against top class milers. I know that’s a thin case but it’s all I’ve got at present. Besides Ventura’s 108 BSF for winning the Woodbine Mile Ferneley owns the two highest 8f Turf BSF’s this year.

This race is crying out for some real North American contenders to be born in the Oak Tree Mile, Kelso and Keeneland Mile. Keep a close eye on those races.

Sprint
1. Fatal Bullet (1)
2. Zensational (2)
3. Munnings (3)
4. Ready’s Echo (4)
5. Noble Court (new)

Dropped: Jungle Wave (5)

Fatal Bullet is back on track and working and I expect my confidence to grow on him in the next month. He’s just as much a monster as Zensational on the synthetics but he gets far less press. Connections might choose to send him to the Ancient Title as a last prep which would drive down his price for the Sprint but it would be a good indicator of his real talent.

Poor Jungle Wave ran his heart out in the Woodbine Mile and if he were my horse I’d definitely be looking at the Sprint. But the people that actually own him seem to be leaning elsewhere with him. If they change their minds I’m on board but until then I have to drop him.

Noble Court is not good enough to win the Sprint unless there is a monumental pace meltdown but I do think he is the second best sprinter in California at the moment. That should count for something.

It’s hard to see past the top two, everyone else looks like a second rate choice.

Juvenile
1. Lookin At Lucky (2)
2. Dublin (3)
3. Aspire (4)
4. Pulsion (5)
5. Dave in Dixie (new)

Dropped: Sidney’s Candy (1)

Just one week into the rankings for the Juvenile and I’ve already lost my #1. Sidney’s Candy has unfortunately come up with a minor injury that will keep him out of the Juvenile. He ought to be back for the Hollywood meet so look for him in the Futurity.

As a result of that defection Lookin At Lucky takes over as the top horse. I’m fairly confident that he could be beaten but his competition is pretty under developed at this stage.

I’ve decided not to include either D’Funnybone or Discreetly Mine off of their performances in the Futurity. D’Funnybone’s owner and trainer need to sit down and have a talk because Paul Pompa is saying that the Juvenile is next for him while Dutrow is saying that he’s like to take the Champagne then wrap him up for the year. Neither scenario makes him a good pick in my opinion. I hate runners that come directly from the Futurity (or Matron) directly to the Breeders’ Cup. The only time I give them a serious look is when the BC is at Belmont because of the one turn configuration. I just think that the 7f Futurity is not a good final prep for the Juvenile and horses with two turn experience generally always dominate.

Discreetly Mine looks like a good horse but will his connections given him another prep then ship all the way out west? Stanley Hough seems a bit more reticent than that to me and ultimately I think we’ll see him in a race like the Remsen instead of the Juvenile.

I’ve added Dave in Dixie because he is more or less the kind of horse I’m looking for. He was an impressive winner from John Sadler’s barn at Del Mar. He is based in California so it’s not a big stretch to see him tossed into the mix even if he is not the most accomplished. The synthetic track experience coupled with a bit of talent is what I’m really looking for.

Overview: I thought this weekend was highlighted by the magic of knowing your horse. Bobby Frankel brought Ventura to Woodbine because there was a big purse being offered for a race that fit her preferences perfectly. Ventura is a one turn specialist and she flaunted her proficiency once again. Forever Together also came to Woodbine but she’s the polar opposite of Ventura, she is definitely a two turn horse. Forever Together has never lost a two turn turf race but she’s struggled mightily in one turn races. That struggle showed itself again as she was nosed out by the inferior Princess Haya. Don’t worry too much about the reigning Female Turf champ. The division is won or lost in two turn events and she’ll still have a couple of those left on her dance card this season. Regal Ransom looked good in the Super Derby but he’s still a few notches short of the real cream from this crop. Blame on the other hand had the pace against him but still came with a bold run in the final few furlongs. His star seems to be on the rise. I wouldn’t make too much out of D’Funnybone’s latest runaway victory. I thought Discreetly Mine was equally impressive after having a rough trip. With Dutrow planning to take D’Funnybone straight to the Juvenile off this 7f effort he’s an easy toss.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Just As Well got lucky when he inherited a win via DQ. He wasn’t affected by the trouble but he did get most of the benefit. That result has propelled him into a firm second place in the Turf Male rankings and 6th overall! Who would have ever thought that Just As Well would be ranked higher than Forever Together?

Power Rankings: Ventura has gone from the head of one division to the head of another. The way Power Rankings work is that a horse is given a score based on their entire body of work but the division they get placed in is based on what kind of races make up the bulk of their score. Ventura had been the top Female Sprinter until this weekend when she captured a massive prize on the grass. That made her more of a grass horse than main track sprinter this season so she moved divisions. Expect her to flip flop back into contention for the top Female Sprinter after the Breeders’ Cup.

Performance of the Week: Ventura was really good but the pace really helped her as well. She would certainly be a deserving choice for performance of the week but she’s also every one’s top choice. I’m going to go against the grain just a bit and say that I was personally quite impressed with Awesome Maria in the Matron. She sat right on the pace which was lively then looked powerful as she just extended away from the field. I’m pretty convinced that she’ll go two turns and she’s a pretty nice physical specimen for a 2yo filly as well.

Race of the Week: Surely the 2009 renewal of the Noble Damsel has to go down in history as one of the tightest non dead-heat finishes of all time. Check out the photo. What is that winning margin, like 3 millimeters? To the naked eye Rutherienne never had her nose in front, even her jockey Alan Garcia congratulated the rider of Quiet Meadow for winning. It just goes to show how important photo finish cameras are. A few weeks ago someone expressed surprise when I said that all dead heats awarded prior to the era of finish line camera’s were suspect in my mind. This is why. Even an experienced eye could not have seen Rutherienne get in front at the line.

Flop of the Week: I thought Bribon was ridden far too close to the pace to be effective at Woodbine. Obviously his connections feared Rahy’s Attorney more than they should have. Bribon was ridden from further back in the Met Mile, Cigar Mile and even the Saratoga allowance and he did just fine in those races. Here he struggled home without any real kick at all in the lane. He still managed to run 4th just a nose out of third but my feeling is that with some better tactics he could been flying home right with Ventura. Badly done by Alan Garcia.

Tip O’the Cap: 2007 Arlington Million winner Jambalaya was back in action for the first time since that victory and he picked up right where he left off! Okay maybe he wasn’t quite back to that level but he did manage to win and he looked pretty good while doing it. Woodbine was never even his favorite course. He always seemed to do better away from his home track but it’s great to see him back in action. Who knows, this 7 year old gelding may actually be a major contender for some of this seasons big Turf stakes. He is 19-9-1-6 in his career on the grass but he’s 5-4-0-1 away from Woodbine. He’s won G-1’s at Gulfstream and Arlington and a graded stakes at Saratoga. Jambalaya is a serious horse and congratulations to his connections for getting him back to the races. Patience rewarded.

KC Handicapping: I missed the mark pretty badly this week. For a moment it seemed as if Quijano was going to be good enough but he just doesn’t have enough punch in the lane. Rahy’s Attorney was too close to a fast pace and he just wasn’t good enough. It’s been a rough little streak for my 20-20 profiles. Losses in the Woodbine Mile, Pacific Classic and Whitney are beginning to add up. All the 20-20 profiles combined are just $0.70 profitable this year nailing only 6 winners from 11 races. The overall overage is 195% ROI and 79% winners. The Breeders’ Cup (eight established races) and Canadian International are the only races of the year left with a developed profile.

Weekly Record: 3(2)-0-1-0 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 803(455)-138-126-102 (-$172.50 -10.74% ROI)

I’ve calculated the Kennedy Speed Ratings (KSR) for each applicable race at Woodbine on Sunday. Unfortunately I could not find the BRISnet data for races 3, 10 and 11 so those have been left out. For anyone not familiar with these ratings the essential premise is that any horse rated 100 or higher is fast enough to win, the others are not. This system is still in it’s infancy so posts like these are really more like tests rather than statements of confidence. Still perhaps a few of you will find it interesting.

Northern Dancer Stakes
It’s a pretty even race with many logical ways to go. I’ve ended up with Marchfield in this race. I think he’s in excellent current form and 12f on the grass is just perfect for him. Having watched all of Marchfields races this year he just seems like a horse that is coming up to a boiling point. All his races are looking better and better and it has generally been coinciding with him having longer races. It’s hard to believe that his connections have given him so few chances on the grass. He won a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown at 12f in his turf debut but still he’s only had 6 turf races total. He is 4 for 16 on the main track and 3 for 6 on the grass. He is 4-2-1-0 in races 10f or longer on the grass. It’s hard to imagine any of the horses he beat in the Sky Classic coming back to reverse the form. The main threats I see are Quijano and Just As Well. Just as Well is a logical threat but I’m not a huge fan of his first time in Canada and first time at 12f I prefer those with a bit more course and distance experience. Quijano fits the bill as one having both course and distance experience. This will be his 4th race at Woodbine and he has twice gone close to winning a G-1 here. He fell victim to what I call the “Euro bounce” last time out but he should be better this time. Europeans often run extremely well first time off the plane but fade next time out if they try another North American start right away. I think Quijano will bounce back to his normal form which puts him in the 102 Beyer range. That’s good enough to get himself right in the mix here. I still narrowly prefer Marchfield but Quijano has a major chance. There are others with chances as well I just don’t like them as much.

Marchfield
Quijano

Woodbine Mile
This is one of my favorite races of the year. Outside the Breeders’ Cup and Kentucky Derby I’m not sure that there’s a race I enjoy more. This field is as solid as ever and I think whoever wins this will have to do it with a real top drawer performance. Ian Black, the trainer of Rahy’s Attorney, has predicted that the stakes record is likely to fall on Sunday. I think I agree with him. This race has some decent pace, excellent stalkers and tremendous closers. Every sectional of this race could be run very quickly. I’ve enlisted the help of my 20-20 profile system to help parse the contenders from the pretenders. You can view the full rankings below but in a nutshell there are actually 4 perfect qualifiers this year. Bribon, Rahy’s Attorney, Jungle Wave and Daylight Express. Ventura surprisingly is not among the qualifiers. Daylight Express is a bonafide bomb who surprisingly ticks all the right boxes. His speed is an unknown quantity but we can’t fault him because of a lack of information. I don’t think Barbadian form is quite good enough though so I’m going against him. Jungle Wave is a horse I’m becoming increasingly partial to but a mile is not his best distance. Connections really should be sticking to sprints with him. That leaves me to Rahy’s Attorney and Bribon. Both are fantastic horses and both could easily win the race. I will personally lean towards Rahy’s Attorney. I know he had a blowup in his last race but he’s a machine at shorter distances and until his last race he’s been a real tiger all year long. I think the Sky Classic is just obscuring his real form and he’s as good or better than he was last year. He won’t be a juicy 12/1 like he was last year but I’ll settle for 4/1 on this quality gelding. I still remember watching his father in the inaugural Woodbine Mile. He finished third just a head back of second place behind Geri and Helmsmen. He was never anywhere near as good as Rahy’s Attorney is. Bribon may be the next mile superstar and if he is we’ll just have to cede the race to him but Bribon has been a bit inconsistent in the past and this track is very different from Saratoga. It’s more like the European tracks that he didn’t do as well over. I’m hoping the Canadians can defend themselves here and take home first prize.

Rahy’s Attorney

Last week I gave my thoughts on the male Breeders’ Cup races so this week I thought I’d finish things off by doing the major female races. My plan is to rotate back and form like this each week all the way to the Breeders’ Cup.

September 16th

Ladies Classic
1. Icon Project
2. Zenyatta
3. Music Note
4. Careless Jewel
5. Acoma

Among the major Breeders’ Cup Female races we have a rather unique situation. Three defending champions (four if you count Goldikova) are coming back and all of them will be expected to win. Zenyatta, Ventura and Forever Together could all be favored in their races but do we really accept the fact that these races will all be won by defending champs at short prices? I had to do a rethink on each race just to get away from that notion because I think it’s easy and logical to go with the defending champions in each race but it’s not going to happen. The Breeders’ Cup talent pool is too deep for that to happen.

Zenyatta has never lost a race and she likely won’t have lost a race by the time the Breeders’ Cup rolls around. I have always thought that Zenyatta’s weakness would be trying to run down top quality stalkers if the pace was not really quick. Coming from the back of the pack as she does that’s always a risk and she’s had a few close calls. I have her second in this group because I think her number will finally get called this fall and her unbeaten record will be sullied.

I think the filly to finally tame the wild Amazon will be Icon Project. She’s a big powerful filly in her own right and she is in otherworldly form this year. As a daughter of Empire Maker she was never likely to be that choosy about surfaces. She has done reasonably well on the grass and originally it looked like her connections wanted to keep her on the turf. After all at one point she actually finished within 3/4 of a length of Dar Re Mi who is one of the finest turf fillies anywhere. But when the New York Handicap was washed off the grass a new career was born and Woflson found out that Icon Project was unbelievable on the main track. Three races on the dirt and she’s earned nice Beyer’s each time. Her only loss was because of a tactical blunder on a speed favoring track. Valdivia let Swift Temper get everything her own way at Delaware and it was far too late by the time she got going. It cost him the mount. Her Personal Ensign victory was reminiscent of another Phipps horse, Inside Information. Icon Project is a star on the rise and I think she’ll love synthetics. She is a big tough filly capable of brilliance and she has the tactical advantage on Zenyatta. She’s my #1.

Music Note looked horrendous in her first start back as a 4yo but she laid the fears about not training on to rest in the Ballerina. She was dominant over Indian Blessing and Informed Decision who will both be main contenders in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Connections might be tempted to keep her at 7f but I think she’s going to stretch out. I expect to see her in the Beldame alongside stablemate Seventh Street. I think she’s the far better filly of the two and with her Santa Anita form already set from last year she is the more logical pick for the Ladies classic as well.

Careless Jewel has gone from zero to hero in a remarkably short span of time. She was thought to be a pretty good thing by bettors at Keeneland in her debut. Josie Carroll first timers rarely take money at places like Keeneland but Careless Jewel was made the favorite. I feel back for her backers because that was the only day of her career that she didn’t take home the money. She won a couple of races on Woodbine’s Polytrack before setting off to Delaware and Saratoga where she earned Beyers of 104 and 106 in dominating stakes performances. We already know that she handles synthetics, now we know that she’s a very dangerous speed horse even against stakes types. She could be controlling the pace on Breeders’ Cup day and no horse has ever caught her once she’s hit the front.

Acoma is something of a pet project of mine for this race. I probably have more faith in her than her connections do but I see all the tools being in place for her. She is another daughter of Empire Maker and have proven to be adept on all three surfaces. Most of her races have come on dirt but oddly enough dirt is the only surface she’s ever lost on. She is undefeated on turf and synthetics. I like the quick move she has and some of her dirt form shows that she has the class to compete with the best.

Filly and Mare Turf
1. Dar Re Mi
2. Midday
3. Forever Together
4. Gozzip Girl
5. Pure Clan

This is another event where the defending champion will loom large. Forever Together has still never lost a two turn Turf race. It’s going to be a tough thing for her competition to overcome. But the one thing that has me rating her a bit lower at this stage is the fact that she has not been as dominant this year and that even at the height of her powers she never had to deal with a first class European. Horses like Caribbean Sunset have challenged her this year and that form does not look great.

Dar Re Mi is a first class European and might well be on her way to North America. She suffered a somewhat dubious DQ in her last race but if you consider the result as it should have been, a win for her, then she’d be 4-3-1-0 on the year with three straight G-1 wins. Her only loss came in her debut by a short head. Dar Re Mi has accounted for Sariska and Stacelita, the two sophomore fillies that looked like potential superstars. Her win over Stacelita was taken from her but I’m more concerned about the level of talent she showed to hit the line first. There is no question that she was the better horse. Dar Re Mi handles any ground and is an extremely tough horse. John Gosden had success shipping to Santa Anita last year and he could as well this year.

I also like the Henry Cecil trained Midday. She has really been coming into her own over the last few months. I think she is better on firm ground although she hasn’t had much firm ground of late. The Juddmonte farms are normally supporters of the Breeders’ Cup so I expect that this filly will be pointed to Santa Anita after perhaps one more race in Europe.

Gozzip Girl suffered a pretty bad reverse in the Garden City stakes this past weekend but I still believe that she has the talent to be competitive here. Being steadied repeatedly then nearly going down on the first turn is enough of an excuse for me. I also think that ultimately her best races will be run on firm ground. Watch for her in her form recovery mission in either the Flower Bowl or QE II at Keeneland. I’d much prefer the Flower Bowl as a prep because I think the timing is far better but the lure of facing only fillies her own age may be too great.

It seems like Pure Clan’s season hasn’t really gotten off the ground yet but she’s still a good horse. She might require a bit of pace to be effective but it’s not unreasonable to think that she could get a pace on Breeders’ Cup day. I think the Female turf routers in North America are kind of weak this year aside from Forever Together. She’s as likely as anyone to get a piece.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Carlsbad
4. Indian Blessing
5. Game Face

I look at this race and I can’t help but choke on a bit of chalk dust. None of my top 5 fillies would be longshots but even still I felt like I was really reaching to come up with 5 horses for this race. Indian Blessing has been an admirable horse for years now but 7f and synthetics have never been her best game. It’s hard to envision a scenario where she beats last year’s winner Ventura.

Game Face ran a good race at Presque Isle and that should be enough to book her Santa Anita ticket but can she really beat Informed Decision who has handled her so easily twice? It’s a real stretch but Game Face is still one that could hit the frame.

Carlsbad is a legitimate threat to the big two in this race because she is the speed of the speed. I think she can out foot Indian Blessing and she can certainly run big races when she gets in front. She is not yet nominated but I think connections will want to take that shot with her. She’s a win machine and she deserves a chance to compete with the best at her best distance and surface.

I have Ventura over Informed Decision but it’s a really close call. Not much separated them at Keeneland when they met and there will likely be little to find at Santa Anita for the rematch. What I like about Ventura is actually her lighter campaign. Frankel has been very choosy with her this year and she’s likely to run in the Woodbine mile then go straight to Santa Anita to prepare for the Sprint. Informed Decision has not exactly been running every other weekend but she has had significantly more racing over the summer and may not be quite as fresh. She is also not a Californian and that might play into it. In the past I thought Informed Decision had the advantage because of her tactical speed but I think those other factors outweigh the tactical speed issue. This should be a hotly contested race and a great event to watch.

Juvenile Fillies
1. Beautician
2. Mi Sueno
3. She Be Wild
4. Blind Luck
5. Midst

Anyone that sees this race clearly is encouraged to drop me a line. I certainly had a very difficult time figuring out who to put on top. Mi Sueno is the logical choice. She’s regally bred, based in California and is now a multiple stakes winner. But something about her has me less than convinced. She’s not that fast at present and I do wonder if the best fillies are out West. It is a good sign that she’s winning without having totally figured it out yet. Her trainer must have had quite a scare last time as she looked beaten in the stretch but it turns out that she just hadn’t decided to run yet. Once she picked it up she was able to score a bit easily but stunts like that have to be corrected. Good horses won’t give you multiple chances to catch them.

Hot Dixie Chick looks like a glaring omission but I consider her highly unlikely to participate. The Jackson/Asmussen team are not going to send many horses to California. They have already made noises about just running her in the Frizette if anywhere else at all. In her absence I decided to go with Beautician as my #1. There is something Ashado-esque about this filly as a juvenile. She had a sparkling maiden then got crushed by Hot Dixie Chick. The rematch had the same result but I thought that Beautician looked much better than she had in the Schuylerville. She doesn’t have the same quick move as the Dixie Chick but she chased her hard all the way to the line without being asked all that hard. It looked to me like a great stepping stone to a two turn race. McPeek is good with juveniles and you can almost guarantee that she’ll go on synthetics next in Keeneland’s Alcibiades. I think Beautician has a big future.

She Be Wild is a pint size conundrum from the Mid-West. Trained by Wayne Catalano she has done nothing wrong and has been extremely impressive. But is she that fast? How good was her competition? With talk of her training up to the Juvenile Fillies will she be a good bet without any two turn experience. It’s too early to answer all of those questions. For now we simply respect what she’s shown.

Blind Luck is a filly trained by Jerry Hollendorfer who looked fantastic in her debut then followed that up with a clunk up second behind Mi Sueno at Del Mar. Her second race was not nearly as good as her first but horses often regress off a big maiden score. To finish that closely to Mi Sueno while looking less than spectacular is a notable feat and if she continues to improve she should be a main contender in the Oak Leaf and Juvenile Fillies.

Midst is a Canadian based horse that I’ve been waiting on for a while. She earned a 90 Beyer in June at Woodbine but hasn’t made it to the track since. That was a huge figure for Polytrack at that time of year. She was sent to Saratoga but never got in a start there so there could be some fitness issues. I’m excited about her as a talent though and she still has plenty of time to get another start in before the Breeders’ Cup.