Fall Highweight Handicap
By the time I get this post published they’ll nearly be at the post in this race. Oh well, hindsight might make the read more humorous. Despite the massive imposts I do believe that the favorites Fabulous Strike and Idiot Proof are the horses to beat. Fabulous Strike is one scary son of a gun when he’s on his game. If he pulls out his 07′ Vosburgh form his competitors ought to simply head back to the barn, there’s a chance he could beat them back there even after winning. The good news for everyone else is that was 2007 and he haven’t seen the same level from him this year. At 5/2 I’ll acknowledge the danger but prefer to oppose him. Idiot Proof looks like much better value. On real dirt we know he’s a class act and we also know that he can handle the heat of tough early fractions and still stick around. Arson Squad seemed to have begun an exodus of top class under performing horses who are fleeing synthetics. Idiot Proof could be a revelation for the Levine barn and we might be wondering how he ever went off at 3/1 in here. If you want an outsider consider Songster. At his best he was as classy as the top two. He hasn’t raced much since 2006 but I thought he showed an encouraging level of bravery in his last race where he realistically had no chance. Albertrani should have him more prepared this time and he’s already got some decent form at Aqueduct. Part of me will be cheering for Ferocious Fires but he’s only worth a sentimental saver. I think he’s over his head a bit.

Idiot Proof
Songster

Golden Rod Stakes
Few fillies have impressed me as much as Sara Louise did in the Pocahontas. I thought she showed prime time type ability. The type we’ve only seen from Stardom Bound, Sky Diva and in my opinion Livin Lovin. That makes her the horse to beat despite the presence of the much more accomplished Dream Empress. McPeek’s filly is good and a great benchmark type horse. She’s tough but not brilliant. Dirt is a question mark but her reputation will see her bet down. I’d prefer just to use her on the bottom of the exotics. Another horse I’d use beneath Sara Louise is War Echo. This might be the best filly in Asmussen’s vast barn. Two turns should be right up her street but really I’m hoping we get to see another exhibition from Sara Louise.

Sara Louise

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
This is a wide open race in my opinion because the favorite isn’t nearly as strong as people think. He could win and it wouldn’t shock me, I’m not taking a total stand against Capt Candyman Can. He’s undefeated on dirt and has the best figures in the race but something about him is unconvincing. I expect that the speedy Zayat second timer Jazzandthemagician will ensure the Candyman stays honest and likely even a bit wide. The most impressive horse to me is Brother Keith. He looked very good breaking his maiden and this is an aggressive move for Bobby Frankel. He is usually never aggressive without cause. Brother Keith is bred for turf and Frankel is good with turf horses yet here he is on dirt again in stakes company after just a maiden win. I think this horse is a real runner and he’ll be my primary play. I also like Darley’s Stormalory. He has come alive in a big way since switching to two turns and it’s nice to see Kent D sticking with him over Zayat’s promising contender. He’s got a good stalking style for this sort of contest. For many of these horses it’s their first try around two turns. Advantage goes to those who have proven patience but still good tactical speed.

Brother Keith
Stormalory

Citation Handicap
This is one of those great races that makes Thanksgiving weekend so wonderful. Ten horses and I give six of them a real shot. Prices are always tempting and I’d love to see Galantas get home here. He only flashed the requisite ability once but he seems to run to the level of competition he’s facing. His campaign has been all but destroyed this term but it strikes me as significant that connections chose this race for him. Surely the River City or Tropical Turf would have been better spots for a horse who has never won a stakes race. But the savvy Graham Motion is sending him to California for a G-1 event. To me that suggests an expectation of a lifetime best effort. He once finished fairly close to Shakespeare and Kip Deville, he’ll have to better that performance to win this but at the right price he’s worth it. I do think the horse has the ability it just hasn’t been unlocked yet. I’m going to be a wimp and have a saver on Whatsthescript. I hope he gets beaten because he’ll be a short price and Galantas might pay boxcars but Whatsthescript is the best horse and it’s going to take quite a bit to beat him. He is better at a flat mile but he is the only real G-1 horse in this race. It’s his to lose.

Galantas
Whatsthescript

I was pleased and refreshed to read the transcript of the Bloodhorse Chat with Sobhy Sonbol. I wish their operation all the best. One of the most thoughtful answers he gave was in response to a query wondering what the primary goals of Zayat stables are.

Instead of goals like winning the Derby or having a horse of the year he said that essentially the goal is to own, produce and develop high level runners. Their goal for each horse is to make them the best at whatever they are best suited for. Whether that mean making them a precocious two year old, a turf miler or a dirt router. Each horse has a preference and a period when they are at their best. It is up to the connections to identify those things and make the most out of them.

You think it would be obvious but so many people assume that high priced horses need to be classic types and that precocious juveniles should automatically be saved for a 3yo campaign. Regardless of auction price some horses were cut out to be sprinters or turf horses and others were only ever going to be good 2yo’s. It’s nice to see connections not going for a one size fits all mentality. Even in their purchasing of horses, they’re looking for good horses not necessarily good classic type horses.
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The Graded Stakes Committee had their annual meeting to decide the shape of the stakes calender and once again they seem intent on going their own direction. More G-1 stakes seems to be the result of every single meeting. Net net we always end up with more stakes races and more at higher levels every time these guys meet. This Committee and the racetracks who receive the upgrades seem to be the only people pleased with these decisions.

I have to wonder what they saw in American racing this year that made them decide that we had too few G-1 events? It seemed rather obvious to me that many of the G-1 events held in 2008 were not real G-1 level events. They weren’t full of G-1 level horses.

The numerous upgrades also creates a bit of a situation for those who have point systems. All of the sudden the sprint divisions seem a bit over-weighted and because of the increased number of graded stakes in general comparisons from different years are less relevant.

Point systems are unfortunately linked to the interpretations of the Graded Stakes Committee.
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Although this weekend has some fabulous races lined up one can’t help but feel that the last several weeks have been a great argument for the implementation of an off season. The Europeans have already decided their year end awards, the Canadians have begun the process and it’ll be tied up shortly. Americans still have two months to go. I’m a firm believer that under the current system every race needs to be considered, including those that happen after the Breeders’ Cup, but ideally we would simply change the system so the season effectively ends after the Breeders’ Cup and we can get on with our championship ceremonies. By the time we get to the Eclipse Awards most people need a refresher course on the horses being considered. It’s like we’re afraid of building on momentum.

With Wait A While now retired the title of my official favorite horse is up for grabs. I don’t often write about sentiment because on any given day I may choose to go against my favorites. Liking them doesn’t make them good bets. But ultimately I feel that sentiment is what keeps many of us in the game. Losing streaks can sour anyone off of betting and injuries can quell the enjoyment of a race but old favorites keep drawing us back.

Here are some of my current favorites, I didn’t list them in any particular order although I do think that Gio Ponti will take over as my official favorite.

Gio Ponti
Desert Key
Bsharpsonata
Ginger Brew
Coronet of a Baron
Vineyard Haven
Grand Adventure
Livin Lovin
Gemswick Park
Dream Rush
Tin Cup Chalice

Weekend Overview: It was not a great week for well known horses like Thorn Song, Azul Leon, Kelly’s Landing, Indyanne and Euroears but maybe a few horses like Wishful Tomcat and Well Positioned can become well known. Most of the other news this week was in regards to sad affairs like retirements and passings. We generally don’t take the time to acknowledge such events but the retirement of Wait A While struck a personal chord with me. She was my favorite horse in training and I wish her well in her new career as a broodmare.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: The only change of note to the standings this week was a slight change to the color I use to highlight sprinters. My wife claimed the electric blue was hard on the eyes so it’s switched to calmer aqua type color. The actual rankings were pretty much unchanged as none of the graded stakes winners had done anything of note prior to this weekend. Thorn Song missed a good chance to move up the Turf Male rankings but realistically the result looks just about fair. Thorn Song doesn’t really deserve a higher ranking than 4th in the division despite the fact that it’s a weak group.

Power Rankings: I’ve been working on a way to see Power Rankings included in the consideration for the year end TCR Awards. My thought is that the TCR is a measurement of accomplishments while the Power Rankings are a measurement of brilliance. A marriage of the two would seem to be an ideal way to decide the rightful champions. Perhaps it might even pave the way for the removal of voting.

Performance of the Week: I was personally impressed by Wishful Tomcat in the Discovery Handicap. It’s nice to see some New York-breds like this horse and Tin Cup Chalice step out of state-bred company and do so well. The Tomcat went right to the front and improved his position under a patient Ramon Dominguez. He was still looking pretty fresh at the line. I know juveniles went relatively faster in the preceding race but it’s always tougher to get it done against classier horses. Wishful Tomcat has been a faithful servant for his ownership winning 4 of 5, all in the second half of the year.

Race of the Week: Has to be the dead heat in the River City stakes between Karelian and Demarcation. Karelian ran exactly the type of race he was expected to. He’s a consistent type who likes Churchill and the distance but Demarcation came out of nowhere, at least from my perception. Once it was clear that Thorn Song had failed it looked to be an easy win for Karelian but kudos to Demarcation. At the line it appeared that Karelian was lucky not to be beaten.

Flop of the Week: The Bet On Sunshine stakes featured the comebacks of the the undefeated Euroears and the million dollar earner Kelly’s Landing. None of the other contestants were really thought to have any chance but in the end both of the favorites failed badly. Euroears never looked into it and Kelly’s Landing looked like he’d prefer to be retired. It was an abject performance by both.

Tip O’the Cap: For Paul Pompa the exciting Well Positioned gives him perhaps another chance at Derby glory. Except this time he’s considering holding onto the entire horse himself. You can’t fault a man for selling. It’s the only business decision that makes sense and if money were his end game you’d have to advise selling Well Positioned as well. But it seems like a bit of a sportsmans sense has crept in and Pompa is considering sticking around and seeing how high he can ride the balloon. Although if I were his adviser I’d be telling him to sell I do admire him for wanting to take a shot at the things money can’t buy.

KC Handicapping: I played three late running sprinters in three separate synthetic sprint stakes races and all of them rallied strongly only to be denied by less than a length. It kind of irked me that all three of my choices ended up favored as well. Despite the perceived bias against speed on synthetics it’s worth noting that playing the deep closers doesn’t necessarily get you anything either. Horses with handy speed that took up stalking positions seemed to do the best this weekend.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(3)-0-1-2 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 661(345)-114-106-91 (-$107.70 -8.15% ROI)

Kennedy Road Stakes
How could I resist a race with this name? I actually grew up 4 miles from the actual Kennedy Road that the talented Canadian runner was named after. The Stollery farm was just about 6 miles from my family home. My family even had a band after the same name. Anyway all that to say that I feel a sort of personal connection with this race and let’s hope it is even further strengthened with some winning selections. I think the race will be decided between Storm Treasure, Just Rushing and Field Commission. I even suspect they finish in that order. Storm Treasure is one of the few big guns who is still fresh. I think he’s been misunderstood for most of his career. He has just 5 wins in 28 starts, but 3 of those wins have come from the 9 one turn efforts in his career. If you simply isolate his one turn dirt and synthetic efforts his record is actually a decent 7-3-4-0. Whenever you find such out-performance in a subset of races from a horse who is otherwise inconsistent you have to focus on them. Storm Treasure loves the surface and distance, his figures are among the strongest in the race and he’s much fresher than all the other major contenders. Just Rushing ought to be favored because overall he’s the best horse but he’s better on the grass and I just think Storm Treasure will get to him late but he’s still going to be tough.

Storm Treasure

Vernon O. Underwood Stakes
Because of it’s placement on the calender the Underwood rarely gets top notch horses. Usually it’s filled with those looking to step into stakes company and those making comebacks. Thanks to the stewards that is exactly what we have this year. Cost of Freedom was supposed to run here but the bizarre situation with the track vets has seen him ineligible to run again. Sadler still runs two in this race and I suspect that he’ll win it even without his stables sprinting ace. There is good speed in here with Bob Black Jack and a few others so it should set up nicely for a horse who comes from a bit out of it. Noble Court is hopefully back to his best and ready to fire. He’s actually a bit of a specialist at the distance. He’s been breathing fire in the mornings and i think things will just fall into his lap. I think Bob Black Jack is good enough to win but this isn’t the greatest spot to be taking a short price on him. The horse I’d use underneath Noble Court is Johnny Eves. He’s got some speed and against this class of horse he is pretty effective. His recent bullet is encouraging. I think he’s be the pace survivor and the target for Noble Court to get to. He won’t be right on the lead because true 6f speed is too much for him but sitting right in the pocket might just be perfect for this race.

Noble Court

Hollywood Prevue Stakes
Backbackbackgone might have a catchy name and deserve favoritism but I wouldn’t touch him at all. As the distance has increased so his winning margins have dwindled and 7f is the hardest distance to wire especially for an unseasoned two year old. I don’t want any speed crazy juveniles in a race like this. I far prefer the exposed Azul Leon, it is true that his last races have been fairly poor but I think the cutback to one turn is crucial for him. He just doesn’t have the stamina to produce his late kick in a two turn race. The cutback will be perfect for him. I don’t really have strong feelings about any of the others. I suspect Arashi Cat will turn into some kind of a decent horse but I don’t like him enough to use him on top.

Azul Leon

Curlin is gone so the search for a successor begins. Zenyatta is the obvious one to take up the mantle and of course the Triple Crown stars are always a big draw but what of the lesser known horses in other divisions? Every division has suffered the loss of a star of some kind and there is a vacuum that needs to be filled. Below is a list of ten horses that I’ll be keeping a close eye on next year.

Zambezi Sun - Another Juddmonte import to Frankel’s barn. He was a G-1 winner in Europe but he suffered through a generally disappointing four year old season. At his best he’s 5 lengths better than Champs Elysees. He may well be the best Turf horse in America in 2009.

Desert Key - Freakishly fast but needs to mature a bit. He reminds me a bit of Fabulous Strike as a three year old. If he puts it all together he could be the best sprinter by a mile. He’s got the ability to go sub :44 and still be around to fight at the finish.

Tybalt - A Frankel trained Stonerside horse who was imported for the 2008 season. Frankel only got three starts into him. He was never worse than second in those three efforts and finished a fast closing second in the Oak Tree Mile behind Hyperbaric. That was his Graded Stakes debut. Godolphin will likely take over for Frankel so his campaign may not be exclusively American. But this son of Storm Cat and Tuzla has the world at his feet.

Seaspeak - An unlucky headcase of a horse who just might have what it takes to be a top class miler. His antics in his last two races likely cost him the victory but he’s shown remarkable consistency in terms of producing a solid effort. He is never well beaten and should really have more wins than just a maiden. He ought to be a dual Graded Stakes winner already.

Ginger Brew - The next in a long line of top class Stronach fillies. Ginger Brew handles all three types of surfaces and is effective from 7f to 10f. Much of her career has been in Canada so far but watch for her to head south of the border for 2009. She might be the best filly in the east.

Into Mischief - He’s had a ton of problems in his career but producing big efforts has never been one of them. I don’t know if he’s a real 10f type but certainly anything from 7f to 9f will be right up his alley. He’s got class and good tactical speed. A major player in the handicap division.

Georgie Boy - I was very disappointed to see his 2008 campaign shortened by injury. He was one of the few really exciting three year old prospects. His quick turn of foot should make him able to stretch out further than his breeding might suggest.

Gio Ponti - Another miler, I guess I’m attracted to them. Gio Ponti might be my favorite horse in training after the retirement of Wait A While. I loved him since the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland when he showed such promise as a two year old. He’s a killer. I don’t think he is best served by attempting races beyond 8f. His results are far more varied at those distances. They should develop him into a specialist. If someone would like to book action on the winner of the 2009 Makers Mark Mile I’d love to play him.

Storm Play - Undefeated in three starts and still virtually unknown. He recently won a minor stakes at Aqueduct in his first try at two turns. He’s received some huge figures and he’s got an exciting future.

Lantana Mob - This late running sprinter might actually be set for a big year. He loves 6f and is better than you think. He’s had a bit of poor fortune in his races but what I like about him is that unlike many other eastern sprinters he has shown ability on a synthetic surface. His closing style is also well suited for success in big Sprint events.

Last week I wrote about the biggest disappointments of the year, it’s only logical to follow up with my take on the most positive aspects of the racing year. Thoroughbred Times has actually come up with a survey asking the reader to vote of their favorite aspects of the 2008 season. Instead of reinventing the wheel I will simply put my hand to answering their 25 questions.

1. Who was the best horse to race in North America in 2008?
Curlin, he accomplished the most and I don’t think any horse could beat him in a dirt route.

2. Which was the best accomplishment of North American racing in 2008?
I think Zenyatta going all year without a loss against some pretty spectacular fillies. You don’t see seasons as flawless as that one very often.

3. Who is your pick for outstanding owner of 2008?
IEAH Stables had a super year and despite the negative feelings many have for them it’s hard to deny them this honour. Big Brown, Benny The Bull and Kip Deville are likely the most accomplished and talented trio you’ll find under any ownership. Godolphin/Darley also get quite a bit of consideration but when you take the size of the operations into consideration IEAH has done better. Even Ariege and Pure Clan had great seasons for IEAH.

4. Who is your pick for outstanding trainer of 2008?
The trainer who really outperformed this year was John Sadler but I can’t make him my pick because of the way he handled the steroid issue. Bobby Frankel is the guy I’d want training my horses and this year was no exception. Aside from training good horses like Ventura he also conjured G-1 wins out of frauds like First Defence and Champs Elysees. He also showed his eye for a good horse in picking out the splendid Vineyard Haven.

5. Who is your pick for outstanding jockey of 2008?
Gomez is the guy you want in a big race. Unlike some other big race jockey’s he is not afraid to come from the inside.

6. Which was the best Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup race?
The Mile, it was simply outstanding. Goldikova but in the most impressive performance of the year.

7. Which race included the best stretch duel?
Maybe it’s because I was rooting for Colonel John but I thought the Travers was the best duel of the year. The photo was impossibly tight, I still can’t believe John got his nose down.

8. Which was the best victory by a closer in 2008?
I’ll go with Visionaire in the King’s Bishop.

9. Which was the best front-end victory of 2008?
Vineyard Haven in the Champagne. He dealt with heavy pace pressure but still overpowered his rivals. Many of which were very good horses.

10. Which was the best winning ride of 2008?
To me the best winning rides always come when a jockey gets an inferior horse home first. Alan Garcia on Da’Tara is the best example I saw of that this year. The entire year proved that Da’Tara is not much horse. For Garcia to coax him 12f on the front end in a G-1 was quite something.

11. Who was the best turf horse to race in North America in 2008?
Goldikova, she simply sparkled.

12. Who was the best synthetic surface horse to race in North America in 2008?
Probably Zenyatta, Well Armed had good claims for it but who knows what happened to him on BC day. Zenyatta was the most accomplished on the surface and the most brilliant.

13. Who was the best gray or roan horse to race in North America in 2008?
Forever Together narrowly bests Eight Belles for me. Eight Belles was special but Forever Together put in a better season overall and she showed up when it counted.

14. Who was the best gelding to race in North America in 2008?
Commentator in a walkover.

15. Best race contested outside of North America?
The Arc de Triomphe is the perennial leader in this category. The fabulous Zarkava saw to it that the streak continues.

16. Best horse to race in 2008 based outside North America?
Zarkava was the best horse of 2008 that we never saw in North America. She was breathtaking but at the same time one always got a sense of inevitability from her races. No matter what happened up front, even when a classy horse like Goldikova set for home you always knew that Zarkava would get there.

17. Best racetrack website?
Keeneland sets the industry standard. The information they make available is second to none

18. Best U.S.-based account wagering platform?
Not really sure about this one, I don’t deal with any of them so I’ll abstain from voting.

19. Best U.S. racetrack simulcast area?
Again I’m not really sure about this. I haven’t been to any U.S. tracks

20. Best pari-mutuel tellers?
I don’t have enough to compare to. I’ll give Woodbine tellers the nod. I’ve never had any complaints with them.

21. Best synthetic surface used for racing in North America?
Tough question I guess it all depends on how you define best. I personally think the Pro-Ride surface played very fair so I’ll give it a slight advantage over all the other synthetic brands.

22. Best announcer?
Larry Collmus is the most complete announcer in North America. Tom Durkin has begun to slip in my opinion. Larry should be given his shot on the national stage, races like the Derby and Breeders’ Cup would suit him nicely.

23. Which was the best broadcast of a racing event this year?
I usually say the Breeders’ Cup but it was horrendous this year. The Derby broadcast was much better especially if you don’t include the special red carpet segment.

24. Who is the best television analyst/reporter?
Randy Moss is the best in this category. He has things to say and he says them clearly

25. Which is the better channel dedicated to horse racing?
My vote goes to HRTV. I like many of their feature shows better.

Weekend Overview: Congratulations to Indescribable for her hard charging win in the Cardinal Handicap. It looks like Turf will be the new home for the Mott trainee despite the fact that she’s G-1 placed on the dirt. She never had a kick like that on the main track. It was nice to see Evita Argentina get back on track with a stakes win. So many of the win early juveniles like Evita or Emmy Darling fizzle out by the fall and are underachievers the rest of the way. Hopefully Evita Argentina is able to find success in her niche. Active Duty took Canada’s premier two year race the Coronation Futurity. Unfortunately the fact that this maiden won only serves to underline the general weakness of the Canadian crop. There really isn’t much north of the border in the way of exciting juvenile prospects.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: So Curlin is all but retired, connections left the door open a crack for another race somewhere but essentially it would have to be created for him. I don’t see it happening. Curlin goes down as the most successful TCR horse of the decade. He broke the 400 point mark in consecutive seasons which is quite a feat. Mineshaft was the only other American based horse to break the 400 point mark. Of course earnings has much to do with it. Earnings are part of the TCR calculation and Curlin has obviously out-earned all the recent competition.

Power Rankings: I was saddened by the news of Zaftig’s retirement, especially during a time when connections were strongly considering a race against the boys in the Cigar Mile. Zaftig’s career is one that will be more remembered for it’s brilliance than accomplishment. She ranks just 12th among Three Year Old Females in the TCR but her Power Ranking of 8.95 identifies her as a very good horse in the making. Injuries are a real blight on this game. Zaftig could easily have developed into a dominant older mare.

Performance of the Week: Definitely goes to the exciting two year old filly Selva. She remained undefeated with a win in the Glorious Song stakes at Woodbine. This is not a Canadian juvenile, this daughter of Forest Wildcat trained by David Carroll was simply sent north because connections thought the race was a good fit. Selva has very good speed as she demonstrated in her maiden effort, outrunning the very quick and talented Gemswick Park. But here it was her patience that caught the eye. She could have easily gone to the front again but she rated willingly and simply waited for her cue to strike. She swept past the leaders entering the stretch without even being asked and maintained her advantage willingly through the finish. I don’t know how far she’ll go but Selva will be an intriguing prospect for the new year.

Race of the Week: Why not the Cardinal Handicap? It had all the elements of a good race. A tightly matched field on paper, plenty of lead changes and a tight driving finish. I almost always pick a turf race as the race of the week but that’s because they always seem to have tight driving finishes. The kind that make you hold your breath for those last few strides. The great part about racing is that even the match ups that supposedly don’t mean anything can bring you to the edge of your seat. Every race has the potential to thrill and excite.

Flop of the Week: Solar Flare was supposed to be a genuinely good horse. In the Suburban handicap he looked like a very good horse who just didn’t stay 10f. Now as time has revealed his class for what it is we see that the horse is simply not very good at all. He was last and listless in the Stuyvesant and it’s hard to see a real future for him in Graded Stakes company.

Tip O’the Cap: To Zarkava for rightfully earning the Horse of the Year title in Europe and to the European system itself that uses a combination of points and votes to decide year end awards. They always seem to get the rightful winners on top, go figure.

KC Handicapping: The hot streak is over, none of my selections ran up to par. Thankfully Helsinki scratched so I only had 3 losers instead of 4. I simply got the races wrong. One thing I was right about though was that Solar Flare and Callwood Dancer were bad bets. Neither horse finished in the money. Temporary Saint doesn’t handle the slop so while two turns is his game look for him on a fast track.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-0-0-1 (-$9.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 658(342)-114-105-89 (-$104.70 -7.96% ROI)

Cardinal Handicap
I’ve chosen to analyze this race not because I have a great feeling about the winner but because the field looks so even on paper that anyone who wins, including the favorite, will likely pay pretty well. I think Callwood Dancer might be the narrow favorite but she shouldn’t go much below 3-1. Callwood Dancer may have a bit of a pace advantage on the field. She isn’t dedicated speed but she is likely the speediest horse in the race. I think the fact that she is the favorite and looks like the lone speed will be enough to convince at least one member of the field to keep tabs on her. I don’t like the fact that she is so deep into a form cycle and that she’s at a Beyer figure top while the BRISnet figures show her last few races as regressions. I actually don’t like to see either pattern. I’ll try to beat Callwood Dancer, especially since she’s had her success on a totally different type of course. Lady Digby is the classiest stalker and I think she’s the benchmark. I thought she was a live longshot in the Diana and she performed with some credit. Against this class of horse she looks very tough. Only three horses in this whole race have won a Turf stakes race this year. I’ve already mentioned Callwood Dancer and Lady Digby. The only other one is a 30/1 shot, Sousaphone. She looks a little slow but as I mentioned she is one of the few current stakes winners. Her best lifetime race did come at Churchill Downs and all of her career victories came off layoffs. She is 5-4-0-1 first off the bench and 5-0-0-1 in every other start. She didn’t have the cleanest of trips but did rally on a bit. I like it when horses regroup after losing ground to rally again in the final 1/8th. At 30/1 she is worth a least a second look. Clearly Lady Digby and Sousaphone have caught my eye as the horse to beat and the live longshot but the difficult thing about this race is we still have to deal with course specialists Ciao and Ballymore Lady. I think they’re very close on ability but Ciao has been consistently competing at a higher level. But because she comes from so far back she struggles to find the winner’s circle with consistency. Ballymore Lady has a bit more tactical speed but she might be better at a mile. The case against these two is pretty thin considering their best races have come on this course but you can’t bet everyone.

Lady Digby
Sousaphone

Stuyvesant Handicap
The horse to beat is Temporary Saint with his dangerous speed and noted surface preference. He loves two turns on the dirt and this race is a return to that preference after three one turn races in a row. I think Solar Flare is a bit of a fraud but he does have a pivotal role to play in the pace. If he goes with Temporary Saint the pace will be in danger of collapse and that might set it up for a horse like Helsinki. He’s not much horse but he’s a consistent closer and if a race is going to fall apart he’s the type of horse who is waiting to pick up the pieces. The long layoff is a big question and Temporary Saint is a far more likely winner but even Brilliant Son has speed so it may not be the easiest of trips for the Jacobson trainee. Brilliant Son is a danger second off the bench for McLaughlin and going turf to dirt but I think it’s not quite the right spot for him because of the pace. If Temporary Saint were to scratch I’d love him but with them both in there I have to stay with the classy Saint.

Temporary Saint
Helsinki

Freshness is all the rage these days. Restaurants tell us to eat fresh and we are solaced by thought that although we’re eating fattening food prepared by a 15 year old in less than 10 minutes at least it’s fresh so it must be little bit good for you, right?

Freshness is the trend in racing as well. For decades trainers have been giving horses more and more time between races. At one time horses would run every weekend with the occasional mid-week tuneup. Then the standard spacing became two weeks, then three and now many trainers consider anything shorter than a full month between races to “coming back a little quick” for high end horses.

Another trend that is developing is not only the month between races but the use of layoffs to prevent a horse from going sour when deep in a form cycle. An astonishing number of stakes level horses only get 1-4 races between layoffs. They’re never allowed to have a long form cycle.

The interesting thing for handicappers and the negative thing for fans is that it seems as if horses who are no more than two races into a form cycle in a given race are outperforming those who have already had at least three races since their last layoff.

Consider the six graded stakes races for three year olds or older since the Breeders’ Cup.
There were 60 horses entered in the 6 races and 34 of them were either coming straight off a layoff or had no more than two races since their last layoff. These 34 horses combined for 5 wins in the 6 races. The 26 horses who were further into their form cycles won just one race despite the fact that four favorites were among them.

The sample size is small but watch for this as an emerging trend. Even among the ten Breeders’ Cup races for older horses seven of them were won by “fresh” horses.

I eliminated the two year old races from consideration because trainers are less concerned with keeping their juveniles fresh. Instead they’re trying to get them to ripen!

Something to keep in mind while handicapping Graded stakes. Be a touch wary of any horse who has run more than twice since their last layoff.