Here is an actual race profile for you to sample.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies

#1 - The entrant must have received the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for dirt routes races. This factor is geared towards identifying the fillies who are fast enough to beat the field. Beyer pars from past runnings are not used because the fillies lined up do not need to win any past renewals, they simply have to beat the horses they’re facing today. So every BSF achieved in a winning performance in a dirt route by a member of the field is added together and averaged.

11 of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing was the only winner who was deemed “not fast enough”. The Average BSF in her running was 84 and her career high was 82. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 39-1-1-2.

#2 - The entrant must have been within one length of the lead at the 1/8 pole in one of their last two races. This factor is geared towards identifying speed but not as defined by the numbers. Tactical speed is as important as speed figures. Synthetics may call this factor into question with supposed biases towards late closers but we’ll see.

All 12 of the last winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 25-0-1-2.

#3 - The entrants career average Beyer Speed Figure must be equal to or greater than the fields average Beyer Speed Figure achieved in all stakes races. The factor may sound complicated but it’s actually straightforward. Take every stakes performance, win or lose, by each horse in the race and combine it into an average. Then compare that figure to each entrants career BSF average. It’s another way of measuring speed and weeding out horses who may have just earned one big figure.

10 of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing and Cash Run did not achieve a career average BSF that was better than the stakes average. Caressing had an average of 80.50 in a race that required 82.40. Cash Run was no where near with an average of 71, well below the required mark of 83.10. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 67-2-5-5.

#4 - The entrant must have received the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for dirt routes races in their last prep race. This factor is similar to factor #1 but it demands that the entrant not only prove to be fast enough in their career but also in their last race. Therefore the focus is more on form rather than speed. Most Juvenile filly winners enter the race off a new career high.

10 of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing and Cash Run did not run fast enough in their final prep race to qualify. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 67-2-5-6.

#5 - The entrant must have finished in the money in their last start. This factor aims to isolate those with good current form. A sharp race last time out is often the best indicator of current form.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 21-0-1-1.

#6 - The entrant must have won at least one of their last three starts. Winning races is a big part of judging current form. You don’t want to be betting on the nose of a horse that has already clearly established a pattern of losing races.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 16-0-0-0.

#7 - The entrant must have run in the money in all their starts at 8 furlongs or more, unless the Juvenile Fillies is being run at Belmont. In that case those who did not run in an 8f race must be in the money in all sprints. Experience at the distance is no good if it was a bad experience. We want our qualifiers to run well when stretching out. The reason Belmont gets an exception is because it’s a one turn race and historically the winners there in both juvenile races have needed less preparation around two turns.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 28-0-1-1.

#8 – The entrant cannot have finished in the money in a dirt prep race where the top three finishers are separated by less than one length. This applies only to the horses last prep race. Blanket finishes were often signal weak races. We want all the stars aligned form wise. Horses who ran in tight blanket finishes on dirt in their last prep are 2 for 42 in the Breeders Cup. With the way pace often sets up in synthetic races this factor would not apply, just as it doesn’t apply for Turf races.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 12-0-1-2.

#9 - The entrant must have won at least one race in their career. The Breeders Cup is not the place to be breaking your maiden. Although very few maidens enter the Breeders Cup I want to keep this factor in order to make sure that as little support for maidens is given as possible.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 3-0-0-0.

#10 - The entrant must have started lower than 10/1 in their last race. Quality is often reflected on the tote board. Horses that are long odds in the preps usually have to run above themselves to convince their connections that they belong in the Breeders Cup. However regression after a career top is quite common. This is an attempt to identify horses that are susceptible to regression. Or to identify the horses that simply have no chance at all.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 23-0-0-1.

#11 - The entrant must have made at least one start at 8 furlongs or more, unless the Juvenile Fillies is being run at Belmont. Basically we want to see solid route experience from fillies that are trying to win a championship race around two turns. We do not demand route experience for Breeders Cup’s at Belmont because the race is run around a single turn and I think it’s a totally different dynamic. The last 4 winners of BC races for Juveniles at Belmont were won by horses that had never contested a route race.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 13-0-2-1.

#12 – The entrant must have raced at two tracks minimum, unless all their career races have come at the BC host track. We seem to get the “Calder Flash” sensations every year and generally they under perform. Running at several tracks is not only good experience but often means they’re facing a different pool of competition which is a more accurate gauge of their true prowess.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 14-0-0-2.

#13 - The entrant must have won a race at 6 furlongs or more.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 18-0-0-0.

Qualifiers and Results

1996 – Storm Song 1st $5.20
Love That Jazz 2nd
Sharp Cat 9th
Dunbar Hill 11th
1997 – Countess Diana 1st $6.00
1998 – Silverbulletday 1st $3.60
Emanating 5th
1999 – Chilukki 2nd
Surfside 3rd
Darling My Darling 5th
2000 – Notable Career 5th
Thunder Bertie 7th
2001 – Tempera 1st $25.80
Bella Bellucci 3rd
You 4th
Take Charge Lady 6th
2002 – Storm Flag Flying 1st $3.60
Composure 2nd
Santa Catarina 3rd
Buffythecentrefold 7th
2003 – Halfbridled 1st $6.60
Victory USA 3rd
Class Above 7th
Society Selection 10th
2004 – Sweet Catomine 1st $6.60
2005 – Folklore 1st $6.70
Sensation 5th
Adieu 7th
2006 – Dreaming Of Anna 1st $7.20
2007 – Indian Blessing 1st $5.40
Grace Anatomy 7th

There have been 31 “perfect” qualifiers from the last 12 runnings for an average of 2.5 per year. During those 12 runnings, 139 entrants started in the Juvenile Fillies. So the profile qualifiers have an impact value of 3.79. Meaning that they win the Juvenile Fillies almost 4 times more often than their statistical probability.

A flat $2 win bet on each qualifier would have cost $62 and the total returned from those wagers would be $76.70. A tidy $14.70 profit or 23.71% return on investment. A win bet on each entrant based on their 20-20 score would have cost $1,095 with $1,136.05 returned. That’s a $41.05 profit or 3.75%. Not bad for a race that has mostly been won by favorites recently.

Other statistical trends worth noting:

The Juvenile Fillies has been won 18 times by horses who won their last prep race over its entire history. Conversely it has been won by horses who lost their last prep race 6 times. No edge can be found by automatically playing either the winners or losers.

Fillies entering this race with the Highest last Beyer Speed Figure have won 6 of the last 12 runnings. Much more than any other Breeders Cup race.

10 of the last 12 winners of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies contested a race at either Saratoga or Del Mar. The trend is similarly strong with the Juvenile suggesting that the best 2yo’s in the nation do indeed run at those boutique meets.

For a look at how all the profiles have worked since 1996 you can view this spreadsheet.

Why do the Profiles work?

Profiling horses for specific races is not always effective and the main reason is because in any given race nearly all of the horses are entered with different goals. Some are coming back from a layoff. Some are at the end of their form cycle. Some are being raised in class, others dropped in class. A specific race may have been the target of a particular horse while another might be using it as a prep. With so many different types of intentions from the connections it is impossible to build a successful profile. However the Breeders Cup doesn’t have those same variables. All horses that enter it are pointed specifically for it. No one uses it as a prep and it is almost never an after thought. Everyone comes up to the race in the manner that they feel gives them the best chance for success. Consequently we are able to identify and isolate those patterns and combine them into a profile.

None of the factors included are jinx or myth. There is no quantifiable reason why a certain horse would not be able to win a Breeders Cup race simply because he won a certain “jinxed” prep race, or because his name starts with a certain letter. Every single factor must be aimed at identifying six key ingredients to winning: Speed, Fitness, Current Form, Class, Experience and Suitability to the conditions.

The factors for each Breeders Cup race are unique to that race. As you might expect one requires different qualifications from a possible Breeders Cup Turf winner than one would a Juvenile winner. However some of the factors do overlap. For instance every race Profile demands that the qualifier finish in the money (win, place or show) in their last start before the Breeders Cup. 161 of the 177 (or 91%) Breeders Cup race winners met that criteria. The only exemption from that factor is runners exiting the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Given its championship status it is treated different from other races. It is not a prep race but rather a target and sharp races can be readily obscured because of the depth and quality. This is not to say that a horse who was out of the money in their last race cannot win. Miesque’s Approval just did in the 2007 Mile, but rather the stat draws attention to the trend so you can make a more informed decision about who is likely to win. If you know that 91% of the races are won by a horse who did run in the money in their last than you may decide to stay with the trend or go against it, but most likely you would only go against it for a very good reason.

Most handicappers will tell you that value is the only way to have long-term success. But the Profile of a Winner does not seek to identify value. It seeks to identify the winner. Having the winner in every race is actually your best chance for success. The difficult part is finding the winner in each race. Most people consider a 30% win rate to be good, at that percentage one still needs to aid of value to be profitable. However this system, without the aid of personal judgment, identifies winners at more than twice that percentage. The starting price has nothing to do with the winners’ profiles because you don’t need to look for value when you are successful that often.

Do the Profiles Work?

The simple answer is yes, they do work. There would not be much point in reading any further if they didn’t. The systems focus is not on eliminating horses that can’t win. The focus is in trying to quantify the relative chances of each entrant. Every Breeders’ Cup starter is screened through the Profile and given a score based on how well they fit the Profile. I’ve entitled that the 20-20 score. I named it 20-20 because at the time I was working on the Derby Profile which had 20 statistical factors and 20-20 is a description of perfect vision. Perfect vision more or less describes the intent of the project, it does not select winners, it gives you an unclouded look at the field so you can select winners. Each entrant is given a 20-20 score and graded based on that score.

For the purposes of the project I have compiled the 20-20 scores of each Breeders’ Cup entrant and proposed that a win wager equal to their profile score be placed on each horse. So in essence you’re betting every horse (unless they have a negative profile score) but in different amounts based on their statistical chance of victory.

I realize that no one in their right mind would wager like that, but the purpose of the exercise is to show you the value of the system even when no discretion is applied. If one can make money by blindly following the system then you ought to make even more by exercising some sound judgment when you’re actually at the windows.

Betting on every horse at the levels determined by the profile would have returned a 32.18% profit. Meanwhile betting the same amount on every single horse would have yielded a –5.88% loss. So clearly there is value in what the profile produces. Another great thing about it is that it’s not dependent on single boxcar winners for profitability. The equity curve is actually quite smooth with only 3 losing years out of 12.

Another way to use the system might be to only look at the horses that had a perfect profile score for their race. Over the last 12 years there were 222 horses with a perfect score in 91 races. So on average you’ll get 2-3 horses in each race that are “perfect”. These 222 had a cumulative Breeders’ Cup record of 222-72-24-26. So 1 in 3 was a winner and a horse with a perfect profile score won 72 of the 91 races. That’s 79%! Betting on all of these horses would have yielded a 149.28% profit with no losing years.

You can view a breakdown of the 20-20 scores for each Breeders’ Cup entrant since 1996 by visiting this link.

Profile of a Winner
A statistical guide to beating the Breeders’ Cup

The Breeders’ Cup is the best day, now weekend, of racing in North America. There is no doubt about it. Championship races with full fields, champions, contenders and pretenders all facing each other with an eye on the crown. For the bettor it offers unparalleled opportunity. One could be either prince or pauper by days end. The pools are massive and thus the opportunities boundless. Some players chase the big score with the Pick 6. Others plug away with straight win, place or show wagers. No matter the type of wager you prefer your chances of making money on Breeders’ Cup day are enhanced because of the size of the pools. So why do so many of us come home with less than we had? The simply answer is because it is very difficult to pick between so many good horses.

Even while the Breeders’ Cup offers the most exciting match-ups around they also offer the most complex handicapping puzzles. In any given race you may have 14 horses, all fully capable of winning and many of them having never faced each other. Many of us do our best to wade through the innumerable possibilities and factors. Often times we side with the horses we know the best from our local circuit, or we come to cheer on our favorite stars. Sometimes we score big sometimes we get nothing. Often times we emerge with excellent stories of close calls and the ones that got away. Many times because of our inability to overcome pre-conceived notions and emotional mood swings throughout the day. That seems to be the nature of the game. Is there a way to bet the Breeders’ Cup that wouldn’t be as subject to your emotional ups and downs? Is there a way to streamline the handicapping process and guide your judgment? Do the diverse group of Breeders’ Cup winners really have anything in common?

The answer to all of those questions is yes and this project is dedicated to identifying and isolating the factors that Breeders’ Cup race winners have in common. Your own judgment is always necessary. Handicapping is a science and science should never be blindly applied. The point of this project is to show how a careful review of the statistical trends can be useful in shaping your judgment and hopefully leading you to greater profitability.

Over the next week the profiles will be explained in more detail so if this is the kind of thing that interests you stayed tuned to this space.

Weekend Overview: Although we had a G-1 race this weekend the horse stealing most of the headlines is one who only ran in allowance company. The still undefeated Casino Drive made his long awaited return to the races at Santa Anita on Sunday. He outclassed some below average allowance horses and is now set to contest the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Whether or not you believe he has a chance, and I don’t, you have to like the intrigue he adds. The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup didn’t prove much as a race. Alwajeeha sat a perfect trip and was too well placed to get run down. Backseat Rhythm is the best three year old turf filly and Paul Pompa should have a great season with her next year. One has to be impressed with the way the form has worked out from last years Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Indian Blessing, Proud Spell and Backseat Rhythm finished 1-2-3 that day and are arguably the three best fillies sprinting, routing and on turf. After being mismanaged for much of the year it’s nice to see Global Hunter put back in a spot he can win. The horse is a born Turf miler and since his connections got a clue he’s been providing decent returns. He won the listed Lure Stakes at Santa Anita. Stonerside decided to keep just one horse after selling everything to Darley. The horse they chose to keep, Cowboy Cal, is a decent sort who needed a DQ to win the Bryan Station at Keeneland. He definitely deserved to be put up. I think he’ll be winning more than a few stakes for his connections.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Virtually no movement at all since Alwajeeha was the only major race winner and she was well back in the standings going into the weekend. Backseat Rhythm has nearly caught up to the ill-fated Eight Belles for 5th in the Three Year Old Female Division a win would have done it but a second requires her to get at least one more top 3 placing this year. The forgotten division leader is Einstein. He has been in front of the Turf Male division for months but has been inactive for ages and a tilt at the Breeders’ Cup seems unlikely. It’s a shame he’s not active right now. The Turf Male division has really struggled for quality.

Power Rankings: The biggest mover was Casino Drive who vaults into 4th place in the Three Year Old Male division. He’s well behind Big Brown and Colonel John but he is a pretty talented horse. The numbers and the visual impression he makes back up that stance.

Performance of the Week: The IEAH team has another good one in Two Year Old Turf Filly Laragh. She won the Jessamine at Keeneland in overpowering fashion after making all the running. It seems like ground has been hard to makeup on the grass at Keeneland but she was most impressive. She drew off and looked like she could go around again. Hats off to the IEAH advisers who keep unearthing horses like this. The stable is well stocked.

Race of the Week: I think the Perryville was exciting enough to merit Race of the Week status. I know some people hate synthetics because they “finish like Turf races”. I’m sitting here and wondering why on earth would that be a bad thing. Nothing gets the blood pumping like a good photo finish. Hatta Fort and Amazing Results both came flying in the stretch to be heads apart at the line. Hatta Fort was right along the rail and Amazing Results was so wide it made judging the finish with the naked eye difficult.

Flop of the Week: Definitely Ariege, I thought she was sitting on a big race but she never really picked up her feet. This definitely changes my assessment of her in that I no longer believe she has what it takes to win a good Turf race. From now on, unless she’s facing totally over matched opponents in some minor stakes I’m only going to consider her in synthetic races.
She has a much better kick on synthetics it would seem.

Tip O’the Cap: John Velasquez was nearly killed in a spill at Keeneland last week. It was nice to see him come back and get a G-1 win in the QE II. You never like to see jockey’s get hurt and I especially like to see them rewarded with an early win after coming back. That should shore up the old confidence and get him set for the Breeders’ Cup.

KC Handicapping: Heart breaker for me in the Perryville. Amazing Results made that big sweeping outside move that I was looking for and just came up a head short to Hatta Fort who was probably 10 paths to his inside. Alwajeeha was my 4th ranked selection, none of the three that I liked more than her ran at all. The week finishes negative but it was oh so close.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(2)-0-1-0 (-$8.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 628(323)-112-105-88 (-$155.70 -12.40% ROI)

Perryville Stakes
I’m So Lucky looks to me like a horse you could probably go against. The form from the King’s Bishop turned out to be poor and i think he’s looked better on traditional dirt. 7f on this surface will likely favor horse who are stout enough to fully see out the distance. Keeneland is quite tiring and you often see the leader getting passed in the final 1/8th. I’m looking more at horses who have shown the ability to win longer rather than shorter. Pletcher’s Meal Penalty looks dangerous. He’s got speed but you know he can carry it for a full two furlongs past this distance. He’ll likely be pressing the speed of Eaton’s Gift and be the first to set for home. He won’t be an easy horse to get by as long as the pace is not breakneck. Amazing Results is the closer I’d use just to hedge the bet a little. He’s undefeated on synthetics and his trainer is very good at shipping down from Arlington. I really don’t think this horse shows his best form in 5 1/2f Turf sprints. 7f on the Polytrack is a better fit. Keep an eye out for him in the late going. 20/1 on the morning line is ridiculous for him. He’ll likely be around 12/1.

Meal Penalty
Amazing Results

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
A very interesting race although probably without any real Breeders’ Cup implications. I think Ariege is likely the horse to beat. I recognize that Backseat Rhythm is the hot horse but I don’t like the fact that she is so far into a form cycle. I always prefer to see horses with a fairly recent layoff for a race like this. Incidentally horses who have tried to win this race without a layoff in their last 3 starts are 15-0-0-1. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Backseat Rhythm, Sefroua, Closeout, My Princess Jess and Lickety Lemon. If you have the money to throw down a trifecta box on the other 6 it may not be a terrible wager. But we’re not going to wimp out and take 6 horses. To get back on topic I’m also not a big fan of Backseat Rhythm because I think she might prefer some cut in the ground and Keeneland right now is pretty hard. Ariege on the other hand does handle firm ground very well and I suspect that she’s just a very good horse. Maybe better on synthetics but quite good on the grass. The distance might turn a few off of her because she seemed to fade in the last bit of the Garden City but a yielding course is always more testing and I think she’ll see out the 9f on this track. I think the pace is going to be slow, My Baby Baby and Storm Mesa should be at the head of affairs and as long as no one gets foolish the late runners might have a hard time closing ground. We all saw what Laragh did to her foes in the Jessamine. Ariege and Alwajeeha should be minding the pace closely and I prefer the quick turn of foot that Ariege has. I think she’ll really get over the firm ground. My Baby Baby is an interesting longshot if she can get in front and control the pace. She actually has the highest Turf beyer in the field although it looks like an anomaly. She was able to get right up on the pace that day and she freaked out over a very similar course. I don’t normally like Euro’s second off the plane but Motion is a very dangerous trainer in this race so his Sefroua has to be respected. Rosa Grace was a much better horse than Sefroua in Europe and I like the way she’s been brought into the race much better. She did not have the cleanest trip last time. A clearer passage and first time Lasix could see her stepping up in a big way. I’ll settle for Ariege on top though, I think she’s the best horse. I also respect My Baby Baby’s speed enough to use her at a price.

Ariege
My Baby Baby

I seem to be suffering from a severe lack of inspiration. It happens sometimes but I do feel a sense of obligation to fill this space with something. Otherwise my mother might not have anything to read over lunch. I’ve searched far and wide for a good topic and have been unable to find one so I finally settled on digging through my own archives. I know, it’s pretty lame, but I actually found an interesting tidbit about myself.

I’m pretty bad at identifying horses to oppose for the Breeders’ Cup.

I started this blog just prior to the 2006 Breeders’ Cup and for the past two years I’ve always produced an early list of horses to oppose in the Breeders’ Cup. The thing is I always try to dump horses who will either be favored or are coming off a good prep. As it turns out a lot of those horses end up winning. From 18 horses I’ve tossed I’ve had 5 winners and another 6 of them finished in the frame.

I think it’s a good idea to simply look for horses that I might use instead of trying to take stands against big names. So this year no “horses to oppose” list, I’ll trade that in for an open mind about each Breeders’ Cup entrant.

Or maybe I should make a list, then take it to the windows!

Who is the best horse in the world? That question has been a source of contention ever since the rise of American racing. Is the dominant European horse the best or is it the American horse? In modern times the argument has had to be widened to include Japan, Australia and even Hong Kong.

Rating international stars is very difficult. All across the globe races are run in totally different ways over widely varying surfaces. Even the rating systems in the respective nations differ greatly. The International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) has emerged as the authoritative source for international ranking. They draw on the expertise of racing experts from all major racing districts to come up with Free Handicap style ratings. Free Handicap style ratings are the oldest type of form rating and are quite popular in Europe. They attempt to represent each horses ability in the form of the weight they would have to carry in order to be considered equal. For instance the IFHA has Curlin rated at 130 and Zenyatta at 120. According to their rankings Curlin would beat Zenyatta unless she was receiving more than 10 lbs.

My feeling is that it’s a flawed way to rank horses. A horses best race is used to determine the sum total of their ability. So one good race from a lower quality horse can see them ranked far higher than they should be. Below is the IFHA Top 10, see what you think of the results.

IFHA Top 10

1. Curlin - 130
2. Zarkava - 127
2. Duke of Marmalade - 127
4. Big Brown - 126
4. Monmartre - 126
4. New Approach - 126
4. Papal Bull - 126
8. Tartan Bearer - 125
9. Henrythenavigator - 124
9. Tamayuz - 124
9. Youmzain - 124

They probably have the first few in the right order but there are some real shockers in the top 10. Papal Bull makes it because of his good second place finish in the King George. Duke of Marmalade was given a 127 so Papal Bull who was not beaten by much gets a 126 and that’s all it takes to make him one of the 10 best in the world. Forget that he’s 0 for 5 this year. Tartan Bearer is another one that sticks out for being ranked way beyond what he should.

Overall I think it’s a pretty poor ranking that is biased against North Americans and is simply working off a faulty premise. Just because a horse runs one good race doesn’t mean they’re actually that good. Every race of their current season has to be weighed into the equation. Consider the list below which is a top 10 based on my own in house Power Rankings.

TC International Power Ranking Top 10

1. Curlin - 50.86
2. Zarkava - 49.61
3. Duke of Marmalade - 48.13
4. Big Brown - 38.84
5. Zenyatta - 34.93
6. Benny The Bull - 31.56
7. New Approach - 31.14
8. Marchand D’Or - 30.63
9. Henrythenavigator - 29.38
10. Well Armed - 27.75

I’m far from an internationally renowned expert but the list these Power Rankings produce looks far more like a real International top 10 should. At least every horse on this list has actually won a G-1 race. The IFHA should look at revising the way they rank horses. If a backyard hack like me can make a much better method than the one they use it’s time for a change.

Weekend Overview: The juvenile picture looks a little clearer unfortunately it doesn’t bode that well for the Breeders’ Cup. The ones we saw at Keeneland were not very good at all and the best juvenile in the nation doesn’t want to pony up the entry fee. Chalk another strike against the current Win and You’re In format. If nominations fees are not fully paid then at least there should be some kind of discount for WAYI qualifiers. Square Eddie will be a solid type of horse but I think his runaway victory underlined the weakness of his opposition. Vineyard Haven was immense and left no doubt that he’s the current king in New York. It’s a big loss for the Breeders’ Cup not to have him. Dream Empress and Sky Diva look like nice horses on the Juvenile Fillies side. for those waiting to play any European that enters in the Juvenile Turf perhaps you might think again. Bittel Road looked hopelessly beaten but snatched a victory at Keeneland while Sam-Son’s Grand Adventure put up a huge 94 Beyer in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine. Neither has ever lost a race. I was pleased to see solid campaigners Thorn Song and Carriage Trail break through at the G-1 level. For anyone who has failed to notice Indyanne is a very good horse and although her figures are well behind Indian Blessings it would surely be great to see them on track together. The odds suggest that Sing Baby Sing came from total obscurity to win the Phoenix Sprint at Keeneland but in his last 7 sprint races he’s 7-4-3-0. Just a reminder to those who missed the comment in my handicapping analysis. Most main track stakes winners at Keeneland have had either a race on turf or synthetics. All the stakes winners this weekend fit that mold and the horses who had only been on dirt went 9-0-2-1. Three losing favorites were among the defeated.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: In a not at all surprising turn of events the Two Year Old divisions were ones that had the biggest shake ups. Forever Together was the only major mover in the older horse ranks as she shot up to second in the Female Turf division following her second G-1 victory of the year. Vineyard Haven is the #1 Two Year Old Male in the nation and Midshipman is still #2. With Vineyard likely skipping the Breeder’s Cup he had better Midshipman is not the winner of the championship event because he may struggle to make up the difference in the Hollywood Futurity. Stardom Bound looks all the more invincible atop the Two Year Old Female division. Mani Bhavan still narrowly holds second ahead of the pair of newly minted G-1 winners but none are that close to the budding superstar.

Power Rankings: Again most of the movement in this weeks Power Rankings comes in the Two Year Old divisions. Vineyard Haven, Midshipman, Run Away And Hide, Charitable Man and Bittel Road make up the top 5 ranked horses on the male side. It’s notable that Street Hero is not on this list. He could only make 6th place in the division at the moment thanks to Bittel Road’s undefeated status. Run Away And Hide is definitely the forgotten horse on that list, the rumor is that he is headed straight to the Breeders’ Cup after missing some time this fall. Square Eddie debuts in just 7th place. Stardom Bound is still the best Two Year Old Female in North America after Mani Bhavan’s complete failure which saw her tail off to 4th place. Sky Diva is ranked second and is clearly a very exciting prospect. She was not seriously challenged in the Frizette and no one could get close to her in her debut either.

Performance of the Week: With apologies to Carriage Trail who freaked out I thought Vineyard Haven was smashing. As they shot around the far turn I was muttering “too fast” under my breath but Vineyard Haven seemed impervious to the toil a half in :45 is supposed to take. He powered away from his would be challengers in the best juvenile performance since War Pass in the Juvenile. Whatever Frankel paid for this youngster from Calder it looks like money well spent. He’s a very serious horse and by far the best juvenile so far.

Race of the Week: I thought the Thoroughbred Club of America stakes was excellent value for money. Indyanne and Wild Gams put on quite a show and both fillies look dangerous in the upcoming Filly and Mare Sprint. Indyanne still has just the one loss, courtesy of a horrendous trip while Wild Gams is one of the most consistent synthetic sprinters around. Two years in a row now she’s been a major player in the this race and the Presque Ilse Masters. Last year she won this one but was second at Presque Ilse, this year she reversed the results. Keeneland is not an easy track to wire a field but Indyanne is no ordinary horse.

Flop of the Week: I think I have to get tough on Doctor Dino. Perhaps he was done no favors by the ride but he just threw in a stinker at Woodbine. Champs Elysees was hurt by the tactics as well but at least he gave it the old college try. Doctor Dino was listless and quite poor. Had he been on form the race should have been a walkover.

Tip O’the Cap: This weeks Tip O’the Cap goes to the plucky Tin Cup Chalice who rebounded off his first career loss in 8 starts to win his first graded stakes. This is not your garden variety New york bred sprinter. Having already won the Big Apple Triple Crown Tin Cup Chalice could actually be a legitimate player in the older horse division next year. He is certainly fast and as genuine as they come. Now he’s proven that he’s got a little class as well. This year we’ve lost Lava Man, Perfect Drift and Evening Attire. Hopefully this New York bred gelding can pick up the mantle and be a lovable star for years to come.

KC Handicapping: Although I lost a bit of money overall on the straight win bets I felt pretty good about this weekend’s handicapping. The Turf races were not kind to me at all as I went 1 for 5. Despite mentioning that Thorn Song was dangerous as the lone speed I didn’t use him on top because of a lack of recent works. It didn’t seem to bother him one bit. Carriage Trail and Vineyard Haven were the most impressive winners of the week and Persistently the horse I called the “safest show bet of the week” ran a non threatening second.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 17(10)-4-0-1 (-$2.50 -7.35% ROI)
Overall Record: 624(321)-112-104-88 (-$147.70 -11.83% ROI)

Alcibiades Stakes
I’m really surprised that Mani Bhavan showed up in this race. Two turns and speed killing Polytrack were chosen over Belmont’s one turn mile. I certainly can’t touch her at the windows. If she wins she is quite special. I really like Dream Empress as an alternative. She has never been on Polytrack but she has been on turf. Her debut was nothing to write home about but she was well backed. In her second outing at Saratoga she showed dogged determination and come through an opening and fend of a serious challenge. It was a very good race and connections are stepping her up in class right away. Wit hMani Bhavan and the Lukas horse you know the pace should be healthy. So often at Keeneland the winning move is the late wide move. Dream Empress should be the horse producing that. I also give a shout to Bon Jovi Girl. Her Delaware form is good and she has already stretched out successfully. She can stalk the pace so tactically she is in a better spot than Mani Bhavan but then again she did lose by 9 lengths the only time those two met. I’ll probably just stay with Dream Empress. If you want a longshot consider Amanwella. I think she’ll benefit from the surface change and her connections are obviously high on her.

Dream Empress

Lane’s End Breeders Futurity
I actually don’t like this race much at all. I don’t want to start condemning a group of horses who still have a lot of improving to do but Advice is the only horse who I see a future for at this point. Despite his outside post I think he lays over the field. Reynaldothewizard is getting some attention but I’m not really sold on him and the stretch out probably won’t help. Advice is already a comparatively seasoned router and I think the short stretch will help him keep his focus. I thought he let up a bit once he hit the front last time. Watch for him to keep running to the line this time. He ought to be the next good one for Winstar.

Advice

Frizette Stakes
This is a most interesting race. In most cases we’re looking at completely untapped potential. Half the field enters the race off a maiden win and no horse has won any race other than their maiden. Of the recent maiden winners I’m most impressed with Gemswick Park. This filly really could be something but she showed sprinter type brilliance. We know that sprinters like Indian Blessing can dominate a race like this but the outside post has me a little wary. I’ll be watching her price closely. I don’t want her at any less than 3/1. Persistently strikes me as a benchmark type of horse in that I think she will always produce the same type of effort and it will either be good enough or it won’t. Much like Balletto from a few years back. I think she’s the safest show bet in the race but given the fact that she’s a Phipps horse coming off a good performance in a graded stakes she is going to be well bet. I may prefer to just use her underneath. Collegiate is a horse that interests me. She was dynamite in her debut at Belmont then floundered a bit at Saratoga. She never ran poorly per se but she didn’t build on her maiden score. Blinkers on will likely help her focus a little more and show some more speed. In the Schylerville I thought she ran well but was given a very curious and impatient ride. In the Spinaway she was simply too far back to have an impact. Hopefully she’ll distribute her speed more constantly, if she does that I think she has as good a chance as anyone.

Collegiate
Gemswick Park

Champagne Stakes
I think this is the race of the weekend, certainly among main track stakes races. Ever since the Hopeful people have been wanting to see a rematch between the top four finishers. All of them aside from the winner, Vineyard Haven, feel that they had legitimate excuses and should turn the tables. The other 6 entrants are not without a shout either. Bobby Frankel mentioned to the press that often the horse who wins without an excuse is better than a horse who loses with one. I think he’s dead on the mark. Cribnote did blow the turn but Vineyard Haven was not seriously tested in the lane. Munnings broke slowly, but he also broke slowly in his debut. There is no reason to believe he’ll break on top here. One thing I do like about Munnings is that the Hopeful was a real education for him and he gutted it out pretty well. I think Break Water Edison was unlucky but he’s got the same inside post here and it won’t do him any favours. I think he’s better than he showed in the Hopeful and I think he’s better than he’ll be in the Champagne but I won’t be using him. Vineyard Haven was said to be a pretty special horse. Frankel put up his own money to buy him and he’s campaigning him much harder than he does with other 2yo’s. Vineyard is an imposing specimen, he is already thickly muscled like a 3yo router. The rest of the horses here will have quite a time beating him. Brave Victory is an interesting entrant. Although he’s just 1 for 3 I think he liable to run a very good race. He has actually produced the most consistent speed figures in the whole field. I think he may have turned a corner when he finally broke his maiden. He looked super that day and I think he’ll figure seriously in this race. He just has the look of a good one. Speaking of which so does Hello Broadway. His maiden score was extremely impressive. He simply wouldn’t back down when he had every right to do so. I’m not sure I want to see him go hell bent to the front again but he easily could be the main speed. Vineyard Haven would prefer to be just off the pace I suspect. Tagg really likes this colt and and he’s been sharpening him up in the mornings. I think he’ll give a very good account of himself.

Vineyard Haven
Hello Broadway
Brave Victory

Spinster Stakes
I’m not quite sure what to do with this race. My instinct says just leave it alone and let it play out without you. Wake Up Maggie was my upset selection to beat Zenyatta last week. She scratched that day in search of an easier spot. This is definitely easier but I’m not sure I like her as much. This isn’t California, the track plays differently and her price is likely to be much lower than it would have been in the Lady’s Secret. Unbridled Belle is the 200 pound gorilla in the room. I’m not sure that anyone really knows what to do with her. She is the horse with the most proven class but overall she has been a slight disappointment this year. She has never run on synthetics and we really have few clues as to how she’ll like it. If she can transfer her dirt form directly she will be extremely tough. I’m going to play against her though on the angle that no experience on turf or synthetics will play against her. Virtually every major stakes winner at Keeneland has had prior experience on turf or synthetics. This is during the Polytrack era of course. Little Belle, when she won the Ashland, is one of the few exceptions. My primary selection is going to be Carriage Trail. She ticks all the right boxes aside from Prado choosing Jiboom instead. She has good form on every surface but her best lifetime effort came in a route race on Keeneland’s Polytrack. She is in super form right now having chased Wait A While in the Ballston spa. Shug McGaughey has had a lot of success in the Spinster and I think he had this race in mind for her since the spring. After seeing Cocoa Beach upset Ginger Punch one would be unwise to underestimate the Godolphin fillies. Little Belle a big better reputation already but I suspect the older fillies are better than the sophomores and I’ll make my stand on that assumption. The one who really catches the eye is Say You Will. Her best form has undoubtedly come on synthetics and Keeneland specifically. She is a very effective closer and if this race backs up she could be picking up pieces at a price. I can’t ignore Wake Up Maggie. I know California is different than Keeneland but she was quite impressive in her only synthetic race. She could be any kind on this surface. She has a really nice quickness about her. In the end I think Carriage Trail is the best bet but it’s wide open so spread yourself over a few options.

Carriage Trail
Wake Up Maggie