Churchill Downs Race #7
Normally I focus on stakes races but the “Stars of Tomorrow” card at Churchill Downs always draws a little extra interest from me. My goal for the winter months is hone my skills for multi-race exotics. Exacta’s and trifecta’s are fine but I want to focus my handicapping on picking winners and to go along with that I want to learn more about structuring tickets. All of that to say that the reason I’m looking at this race in depth for this space is that the only “single” on the card in my opinion goes in this race. Troy G. is not even the morning line favorite for this race but I see him as the most likely winner on the card. He is the speed in this race and unless someone runs out of character he might be left completely alone. I think because of his speed he is better suited to dirt than he is to Polytrack but he’s still a very good horse on Polytrack. Last time out he nearly wired the field at Keeneland at the stamina testing distance of 7f. The horse who ran him down is one of the choices in the Iroquois later on the card. Two turns on dirt should be a much better fit for him as it makes his speed more dangerous. He has the highest dirt figure in the field as well showing off his preference for the surface with a gutsy win at Saratoga. His trainer Ken McPeek has won with 5 of his first 6 starters at this meet. So the barn is hot, the horse has a pace advantage and he owns the highest figures in the field. Smells like a single to me. Having alternatives that you can use in a backup Pick 6 are usually worthwhile. The ones I’d consider using are Crown The Chief, They’re Late, Cliffy’s Future, Beethoven and Zion. The first three mentioned are the ones I like the most if Troy G. should somehow collapse but I really don’t expect it. I basically like them because they’ve either shown a real affinity for dirt or an affinity for a route of ground. Crown the Chief and Cliffy’s Future are both coming off Polytrack efforts so there could be a bounce back to form.

Troy G.

Pocahontas Stakes
It looks like a wide open race and I happen to dislike the favorite. I think Rachel Alexandra is being over hyped. She only really looked good when she ran away with a 5f maiden race here at CD in the spring. I don’t think she’s come back to that effort and the one turn mile here will stretch her. She went back to work too quickly for my liking after her last. This will be her second start off a layoff and I think she’ll regress because I think the distance will be too much for her. Once you get past her it really looks like any one’s race. I’ve settled on Sara Louise as my primary selection mostly because I think she is the best closer. She’s not a deep, one run closer but I think she will be stronger in the lane than most of her competition. It looks like there is a healthy dose of speed in this race and she is perfect fit tactically. A one turn mile looks ideal for a horse with her style. I also like Dr. Zic, I know she’s a speed horse and doesn’t look like the type I want here but I was very impressed with her maiden victory. I don’t think this is a horse who needs to be in front she was just better than her competition. At the head of the lane she re-broke willingly and looked pretty professional for her first start. Hopefully she can sit on the rail just in behind the speed, Borel has been known to do that a time or two. Her pedigree doesn’t really suggest a win early sprinter so it’s possible that she is a horse of quality in the making who will appreciate more ground. She should also be a square price. I think I would use every horse defensively in this race except Petty Things. I think she’ll be run into the ground so I won’t use her anywhere. Everyone else has a shot but Sara Louise and Dr. Zic will be my primaries.

Sara Louise
Dr. Zic

Chilukki Stakes
Sunday’s feature at Churchill should also be a very interesting contest. No one will mistake this group for championship class but a winning bet still pays the same currency and the winner will likely try to step up against tougher horses in the Falls City. Copper State and Leah’s Secret are surely meant more for a race like the Falls City than this one. I haven’t seen the morning line yet but I imagine they, along with Baroness Thatcher will take most of the money. My play for this race is a horse I expect to be the 4th choice. Initforthekandy looks perfectly poised here and unlike the principles this is likely her goal. She managed to run second in the Fleur de Lis but one turn races are really more her forte, she will likely go on to the Falls City but her connections like think her best chance is here. Toss out her last effort. She is not a turf sprinter and her trainer was just looking for a good stepping stone to get her to this series. In her last few dirt races she has been very competitive and if not for Hystericalady (who could beat this group on three legs) Initforthekandy would have a three race winning streak at Churchill. She’s been hot in the morning and even her name is appropriate for a stakes winner on the weekend of Halloween. If you want a bit of a price look at Amazing Speed. She ought to be a longshot but she’s been first or second in her last six races on the dirt. Asmussen should likely be able to coax some good form out of her after his synthetic experiment failed.

Initforthekandy
Amazing Speed

It was not a vintage year for the Breeders’ Cup 20-20 system. In fact one might say it was the worst year ever.

For those of you wondering what on earth I’m talking about feel free to get up to speed by consulting my archives. In a nutshell the 20-20 system is a statistical profile system built to help guide your Breeders’ Cup wagering.

For the first time ever a flat bet on all perfect qualifiers would have lost you money. Not a lot of money mind you but a losing year all the same. There were 16 perfect qualifiers in 8 races. They combined for a record of 16-4-0-5 in the Breeders’ Cup. A $2 win bet on each would have cost $32 and returned $29.60.

Betting the entire fields based on the 20-20 profile scores would have lost you 38% but that is still better than the 50% you would have lost by betting every horse equally. The 20-20 still outperforms random chance but it still wasn’t good enough to turn a profit this year.

Handle was down on a race by race basis and I certainly felt it with my own wagers. Nothing paid as much as it seemed like it should. More handle causes a greater disparity in the pools and subsequently better prices on some entrants.

There was a worry prior to the Breeders’ Cup that synthetics would render systems like this irrelevant. If you look at the breakdown on the 20-20 spreadsheet you’ll see that it was indeed the synthetics that caused this negative performance. The Turf races were actually nicely profitable. Perhaps a little tinkering will have to be done in order to adjust for this new challenge.

All of the synthetic race winners had a win over the turf or synthetics already. Had that been added as a factor for the main track races 3 perfect qualifiers would have been excluded (Curlin, Fairbanks and Sky Diva) and the system would have had a profitable year.

By all accounts it was not a great year but it was also not such a poor year that it should necessitate wholesale changes to the system or scrapping the project altogether. 6 of the 8 winners were either perfect qualifiers or had just one strike against. Midnight Lute was really the only outlier and even when I look at his Past Performances now I still don’t see a horse I’d want 2/1 on. He was a bad bet considering all the questions surrounding him. My thought is that he was simply a special horse who accomplished something that went against statistical probability.

As we continue to dissect the Breeders’ Cup results I thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the statistical angles. Maybe we’ll even find some useful things to keep in mind for next year.

Last prep in California or Europe: 79-11-7-8
It’s simplistic but it would have worked like a dream. About half of the entrants (79 of 156) had their last prep in Europe or California and they accounted for 11 of the 14 wins. A flat bet on each of these horses would have made you $45 (+28% ROI)

Won their last race: 74-9-7-6
This angle was very nearly profitable. It would have returned $132.80 on $148 bet. Clearly horses with recent winning form did the best. This is not always the case in Breeders’ Cups.

Europeans who had a layoff no more than 2 starts back: 10-3-2-0
Europeans did great, fresh Europeans did even better. 10 Europeans came to the Breeders’ Cup fresh and 5 of them hit the exacta and 7 of them were in the superfecta. It’s something to keep in mind for all future years. Favorites like Sixties Icon, Dylan Thomas and Montjeu all lacked recent layoffs.

Favorites: 14-3-3-2
It was not the greatest meet for favorites, they won just 21% of the races and you would have lost money betting on them.

All horses 20-1 or more: 49-1-1-2
For all the supposed uncertainty created by synthetic tracks there was a distinct lack of longshots. There were nearly 50 horses who were 20-1 or more and only 4 of them hit the board. Three of those four were actually in Turf races. Two Step Salsa who was third in the Dirt Mile was the only +20-1 shot to hit the board.

Never raced on synthetics: 21-1-2-3
Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Cocoa Beach, Sky Diva, Music Note and Zaftig were the only horses to hit the board on the main track without the benefit of any synthetic experience. A flat bet on all of them would have returned a loss.

Highest Last Beyer figure: 18-2-1-3
This has never been a great angle and it was more of the same this year. The odd thing about this angle is that for some reason keeps working in the Juvenile Fillies. Stardom Bound is the 5th such winner in the last 7 renewals.

Europeans without synthetic experience: 7-1-1-0
Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator were the exceptions. This will be something to keep an eye on next year because the craze will be to go all for the Europeans. I think most people will remember the fact that the Europeans won a lot of races and swept the Classic exacta. But aside from the Classic exacta the rest of non-synthetic experienced horses ran poorly. Europe was truly dominant on the Turf.

Last prep not in California or Europe: 77-3-7-6
Ventura, Maram and Forever Together were the only winners from 77 starters. A flat bet on all of these entrants would have lost you -$100.40 (-69% ROI)

North Americas who did not have their last workout at Santa Anita: 63-4-3-4
Zenyatta, Forever Together, Maram and Stardom Bound were the only North American Breeders’ Cup winners who did not have their last work at Santa Anita. Zenyatta and Stardom Bound both had their last work at Hollywood. Forever Together’s came at Keeneland and Maram’s at Belmont. None of the European winners had a timed work stateside.

Weekend Overview: Another Breeders’ Cup in California and another heyday for locals and Europeans. I wonder if the easterners will get a clue next year? I still loved the Breeders’ Cup this year but I didn’t see any of the changes as positives. Curlin’s loss guarantees that for the next 12 months we will hear nothing but complaining over the fact that the Breeders’ Cup won’t be kind to dirt horses. I suspect the Racing Post and Sporting Life will have a record number of hits from North American’s in 2009 looking for Europeans to use next year. Zenyatta’s Horse of the Year cause will have significant momentum unless Curlin has a redeeming effort in the Clark or Japan Cup. Goldikova was sublime and I couldn’t have enjoyed her race any more. Midshipman and Stardom Bound look like top class juveniles who despite racing only on synthetics would probably be tough on dirt as well. It’s a shame that there are big questions over both their 2009 campaigns. Midnight Lute was fantastic in the Sprint, I hope they keep him fit and run him a few more times this campaign to make up for lost time.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Despite his complete failure Curlin manages to hang on to the overall top spot just ahead of Zenyatta. The synthetic experience didn’t detract from his overall campaign that much. Zenyatta is lock within her own gender after Ginger Punch’s failure to perform. The American Turf Males are the weakest in recent memory. Einstein still holds down top spot in that division. He’s the only American Turf male to break 200 points this year. Not since 2001 have we seen such a poor group. If you view the divisional standings in the spreadsheet you’ll notice that the Europeans don’t show up. That’s because those standings are for the year end awards and a horse needs to run 3 times in North America to be eligible. Street Boss is still the #1 sprinter in the nation basically because he’s had the fullest and most accomplished campaign. He was obviously not as good as Midnight Lute but his overall campaign is definitely more award worthy. Music Note, despite running an excellent third behind Zenyatta did not do enough to catch Proud Spell in the Three Year Old Female division. In fact Indian Blessing even managed to stay slightly above her in second.

Power Rankings: Again Power Rankings are just an attempt to quantify which horses are better. Goldikova is definitely the best Turf Female and three year old filly to run in North America. Midnight Lute vaults into 8th in the nation with his fabulous Sprint victory. Midshipman is just the third Two Year Old Male to make the top 10 since 1999. War Pass and Johannesburg were the others. He rates behind those two but above all the others in the last decade. The Female Sprinter division is super tight right now with just 0.19 points separating Ventura, Indian Blessing and Intangaroo. I’m not sure if there is another logical race for any of them but it would be nice to see a tiebreaker on another surface.

Performance of the Week: I said in my analysis of the BC Mile that I was really looking for a special performance from Goldikova and I feel that she lived up to every expectation. She was breathtaking. She seemed to have an ideal setup most of the way around but just when the real running began it seemed that she would be denied a clear run. She had to wait for a few precious seconds while defending champion Kip Deville produced his run. For just a moment I feared that the filly might not get it done. But all at once she converted the anxiousness into awe as she kicked to the front with seeming ease. Cornelio Velasquez must have been shocked at how quickly this slight little filly dismantled his hopes of back to back wins on Kip Deville. Superlatives seem inadequate to encapsulate this performance. It was one of the best ever at a Breeders’ Cup.

Race of the Week: I would have said the Mile but that race has already been mentioned here. Despite the fact that I don’t think they’re proper championship events the Juvenile Turf races and the Turf Sprint were fantastic contests to watch. Tight finishes, longshots, swooping late moves. It makes you wonder, if fan enjoyment is the goal, why we just don’t have all Turf races. Congrats to the winners and runners up in each of these three events. They put on a scintillating show and these close finishes were probably the only positives that came out of the myriad of changes employed by the Breeders’ Cup.

Flop of the Week: There are obviously a few ways this could go. Well Armed was perhaps the biggest equine disappointment. He can’t even use the surface as an excuse. He was plainly awful for no apparent reason. Johnny Murtagh was definitely the biggest flop of the weekend because unlike Well Armed he had so many chances to put things right. 10 mounts in the Breeders’ Cup and he out-ridden every time. He did finish second twice with turf juveniles but both times he was on the best horse and got out-finished. His ride on Soldier of Fortune was a bad as any ride I’ve seen at the Breeders’ Cup. It simply defied all reason. The average odds of his mounts was 8/1, he rode 3 favorites and got nothing. I’ll bet Coolmore wishes there was some way they could get Dettori on their horses. I can’t finish this segment without mentioning ESPN’s broadcast. It was hands down, the worst Breeders’ Cup telecast in history. Moss and Bailey are the only ones whose reputations don’t look completely tarnished. Bill Nack was horrifically monotone. Worse than the on air talent was the people who produced the program. From the lack of in depth stories (unless they had to do with the Classic) to the airing of Dutrow’s sexist comments the broadcast seemed to do everything it could to miss the mark.

Tip o’the Cap: I’m not if this has been mention much but I wanted to give a special tip o’the cap to three talented fillies: Sky Diva, Music Note and Zaftig. All of them ran third in their respective races which in and of itself is not such a big deal but these three fillies were the only horses to finish in the money in a Breeders’ Cup race without prior experience on either turf or a synthetic surface. All three fillies came from the east coast and most east coasters struggled as well. All in all I think they ran huge considering the circumstances and they deserve a little special attention for their efforts.

KC Handicapping: It was a fairly decent week for me. I did not hit as many races as I would have liked but when you get a winner like Desert Code it masks a lot of other poor results. Specialists on the downhill course proves once again to be a pretty profitable angle. Specialists also dominate the Mile. 4 of the 6 horses I identified as the specialists finished in the superfecta. I thought Midshipman was as good as I hoped. I was off the mark in looking to key some speed horses and also in ignoring the Europeans on the main track. I was glad to be profitable on such a tough day.

I’ll be reviewing the 20-20 system results later this week.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 23(14)-4-2-4 ($46.80 101.74% ROI)
Overall Record: 647(335)-112-104-88 (-$100.90 -7.80% ROI)

For those who aren’t into reading tiresome pontification concerning each Breeders’ Cup race below is a synopsis of my selections for Breeders’ Cup day. These are all the horses that I like to win in order of preference. I would consider using all of them in the win pool and also in multi-race exotics.

FM Sprint: Indian Blessing, Tizzy’s Tune
Juvenile Filly Turf: Saucey Evening
Juvenile Fillies: C.S. Silk, Pursuit of Glory
FM Turf: Wait A While, Halfway to Heaven
Ladies Classic: Zenyatta
Marathon: Cedar Mountain
Turf Sprint: Get Funky, Desert Code
Dirt Mile: Well Armed
Mile: Goldikova, Whatsthescript
Juvenile: Midshipman
Juvenile Turf: Coronet of a Baron, Westphalia, Skipadate
Sprint: Street Boss, Cost of Freedom
Turf: Soldier of Fortune, Red Rocks
Classic: Curlin, Fairbanks

Much of my handicapping for the Breeders’ Cup is a derivative of the results produced by my statistical 20-20 profile system. I exercise my own judgment of course because it is only wise to do so. But as a matter of interest I always like to compare my actual results against those the system produced. Profiles do not exist for any of the newer Breeders’ Cup races so here are the so called “Perfect Qualifiers” for the main eight Breeders’ Cup races.

Juvenile Fillies: C.S. Silk, Sky Diva
FM Turf: Dynaforce, Forever Together, Wait A While
Ladies Classic: Carriage Trail, Zenyatta
Mile: Goldikova, Whatsthescript
Juvenile: Midshipman, Street Hero, West Side Bernie
Sprint: Cost of Freedom, Street Boss
Turf: Red Rocks
Classic: Curlin, Fairbanks

If you’re interested you can view a breakdown of the entire 20-20 system by visiting this link. To see this years profile results just visit the 2008 tab.

Just as a reminder to those who maybe haven’t read this space before, the 20-20 system is not necessarily to be blindly followed. It’s just a pet project of mine used to give me a clear look at how the contenders line up. You can read more about it in my archives.

Best of luck to everyone in the Breeders’ Cup. Hopefully all your wagers are winning ones but most of all I hope you’re really able to enjoy the best racing of the season.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint
I think the Sprint is rather straightforward despite it’s reputation for being a hard race to predict. There are four main contenders: Cost of Freedom, Street Boss, Fatal Bullet and Fabulous Strike. The rest of the field is running for third money at best. The Californian duo of Cost of Freedom and Street Boss are the main horses I’m going to use on top. There is plenty to like about both of them. I think home track advantage will be a factor throughout the Breeders’ Cup and both of these horses clearly like the surface. Cost of Freedom is simply on an extremely hot run of form. Sometimes things just click for older horses. Remember Thor’s Echo a few years back? This is the same type of transformation and I really struggle to envision a scenario that sees him well beaten. There is some decent early speed in the race so he should sit a nice trip behind them. The inside post is a slight worry. He may have to be used a little more than connections prefer but you know he’ll be able to come out at least a bit with Street Boss and Midnight Lute dropping to the back. He is 5 for 5 at the distance, it’s hard to argue with that. Street Boss is the most consistent high-level sprinter in the nation. I always suspected that his wide and late style would catch up with him and last time it did. That is simply the danger of running that way but with that race in mind I think his connections will be wary of getting him on the engine a little sooner. He and Cost of Freedom are quite likely to have the same stretch battle they did in the Ancient Title but this time it should be closer. I think whenever you look at the Sprint you have to give extra consideration to the fastest horse and that is definitely Fabulous Strike. I think the injuries he’s had have robbed him of showing the monstrous form he is capable of. Synthetics are a question so I rate him lower than the Californian pair but in terms of brilliance only Midnight Lute gets close to him and the Lute’s had an even worse year health wise. If Fabulous Strike takes to the surface everyone else will struggle. Fatal Bullet has one loss on synthetics in 8 starts. That loss came in his second lifetime start. He is a perfect 5 for 5 at the distance and his last race at Turfway Park was simply a tour de force. He’s got Cajun Beat written all over him. The one thing that I dislike about him is that he’s not fresh. I pretty much require my sprint picks to have recent layoffs but he’s been on the go since April. I think he will sit a perfect trip just to the outside of the speed and if he’s still got juice in those legs he will be tough to deny. I like him more underneath instead of on top because of the layoff issue.

Street Boss
Cost of Freedom

Breeders’ Cup Turf
This race looks pretty wide open on paper but I think there is a good chance that a few horses will prove to be dominant over the others. The race is full of trap horses in my opinion and the three big traps are Grand Couturier, Winchester and Eagle Mountain. Those three will come in for some support and I can’t fathom backing any one of them. Each one is a trap because they all come in off of good races, in most cases career best performances but their full body of form shows that they’re all worse than a specific rival in this race. Grand Couturier may be the American horse of the moment but let’s not get carried away. He has never been as good as Red Rocks, not when they faced each other in Europe and not when they’ve faced each other in America. Red Rocks is simply a better horse and I prefer his freshness over Grand Couturier’s spiking form. Winchester did blow them away at Arlington but really you have to ask whom exactly did he blow away? Good summer form at Arlington almost never translates into a good race on BC day. Besides he has never been anywhere close to the level of Conduit. There is much talk about how Eagle Mountain is a much better horse over 12f than he is over 8f and that is true. But Soldier of Fortune is a much better horse period and with his recent summer freshening he is primed for a huge race in the Turf. Soldier of Fortune may simply be too good for the rest of the field. Class tells over this distance and I think even Conduit will struggle to keep pace once the real running starts. Only Red Rocks, the firm turf specialist, really has a chance to keep up with him. Both Red Rocks and Soldier of Fortune are just better than everyone else and unless something unfortunate befalls them I expect them to make up the exacta. Conduit has to be used in all minor places and you could probably use Eagle Mountain underneath as well. One horse I may just have a flutter on is Spring House. I’ve loved him for this race ever since last December but his last effort turned me off. I still think he has a good race in there somewhere. 12f is his favorite distance and this is his favorite course. I always upgrade any horse running at the course and distance he loves most. Spring House has never shown the requisite brilliance to beat the favorites but he has come along very well in the morning and Canani is very shrewd in campaigning his turf horses. Maybe Spring House could upset the apple cart and juice up the exacta.

Soldier of Fortune
Red Rocks

Breeders’ Cup Classic
Can anyone beat Curlin? Yes. Will anyone beat Curlin? I doubt it. The race may just be that simple. Curlin is the best horse in the race and even with the surface question he is a solid bet. My observation with this synthetic track is that heavy bodied gradual accelerators often get the best results. Curlin is just such a horse. Extreme traffic seems to be the only big danger to him. There are a few others I respect though and I’m not going to simply concede this race to Curlin despite the fact that he’s the most likely winner. I will dedicate a portion of my bankroll for this race to seeing him defeated. The horse that I like to possibly upset him is Fairbanks. I don’t like him because of the pace scenario. I looked at possibles for this race three weeks ago and he jumped off the page as a contender who is coming in the best form of his life. It seems I had more faith in him than his connections because they’re only in this race because most of the speed dropped out. That’s fine, whatever gets him in the gate. Fairbanks has speed but he’s not quick, his style is to click off steady :12’s and hope that no one is good enough to rally into that pace. I don’t think he’ll get a free ride here. Raven’s Pass is likely to be on the muscle as well as Casino Drive. But everyone will be thinking primarily about Curlin so we shouldn’t see any kamikaze assaults on the pace setter. Fairbanks outside post actually gives him the advantage of seeing how things develop before committing to the front. He can just as readily sit off the pace. Being by Giants Causeway he should likely handle the surface well. I think it’s all systems go for Fairbanks, he is the only horse that I give a legitimate upset chance to. Underneath I think you have to look at Go Between, my problem with him is that he is a poor man’s Curlin in terms of style and ability. It’s not hard to see him running second but it is hard to see him beating Curlin while getting the same trip. Duke of Marmalade is the best of the Europeans. I worry that he could be over the top but if he isn’t he represents the best chance for Europe. I do respect Raven’s Pass though just because he’s a very hard trying horse. That can overcome a lot of things. I think Champs Elysees also has to be used everywhere underneath. On the evidence of a single race his best surface might be synthetics. He comes from a long way out of it but he will be coming and he definitely stays the trip unlike Tiago who will suck a lot of money. Tiago is an ace at 9f and not so hot at 10f. Although his last prep was good I don’t think it’ll matter much going further. Student Council wants traditional dirt and Colonel John simply isn’t good enough at this stage of his career.

Curlin
Fairbanks

Breeders’ Cup Mile
This is always my favorite race on the card, for some reason I just love the Mile. This is another cracking renewal and I can’t wait to see how it plays out. We’ve got quite a few talented specialists. Bold Chieftain, Goldikova, Kip Deville, Precious Kitten, Thorn Song and Whatsthescript are all the type of horses that could win. In many years it’s just a case of playing the specialists against everyone else. This year it’s about finding which specialists are primed for a big effort. In that regard I think Goldikova is a standout. This filly is better than Six Perfections and Banks Hill. She has a very quick turn of foot, which is a killer trait in the Mile. She is capable of beating any miler in the world. Her preparation has been spot on. She’s had a nice rest and will be ready for a big effort. I suppose there is a chance that America won’t suit her. That is a risk I’m willing to bear even if she’s the favorite. She is the likely winner of this race. The top American hope is Whatsthescript and I’ll use him as the alternative in case Goldikova doesn’t like the hot weather. Whatsthescript has been a bear this year and his form over the trip is exemplary. As with most races I’m going to prefer Californian’s to easterners. Kip Deville still has a huge chance in this race despite his loss last out. He is 8 for 10 in two turn miles and 1 for 3 in one turn miles. Woodbine was never going to be his best chance for success. What does worry me about him though is the lack of a recent sharp race and the fact that he’s been at Aqueduct for months. He’s been shipped out west twice during his career and both were big failures. His only successful races in California came when he was stabled there. He likes Santa Anita but I’m only going to use him underneath if at all. I don’t like the way things have set up for him. I’m also not that high on Thorn Song, he lacks a recent layoff and with Daytona in the race he will surely be hard pressed to get an easy lead. He’s a likable horse but I just don’t think it’ll be his day. Still use him underneath though. He’s a pretty stubborn customer and just because he gets softened up doesn’t mean he’ll be out of the frame. Precious Kitten is interesting. She is not as good as Goldikova and Whatsthescript but she is good at the distance and is 5-4-1-0 in California. She will be able to sit just off the pace and make a quick move at the leaders. Frankel is also confident about her chances. She is a very dangerous horse. Lastly I’ll be using Bold Chieftain in every spot underneath my big two. He is a talented miler whom I prefer over Kip Deville and Thorn Song. He is already out west, he has experience over the course, he is fast enough to compete, he has a perfect milers style and unlike those two he has almost no reputation. He could be one of the longest shots on the board. I’m pretty much set on ignoring any of the horses outside my top 6 and among the 6 I rate them in this order: Goldikova, Whatsthescript, Precious Kitten, Bold Chieftain, Thorn Song and Kip Deville. Hopefully Goldikova gets a clean trip and adapts because I really think we could see a special performance.

Goldikova
Whatsthescript

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
I adore Midshipman in this race. He will likely be the subject of my heaviest support for the day. There are so many things to like about Baffert’s budding star. I think he has a lot more potential than any horse in this race. Although physically he is reminiscent of Congaree his juvenile campaign reminds me more of Point Given. Once Point Given found his feet (albeit as a 3yo) he was nearly untouchable. I think Midshipman is due to find his feet in the Juvenile. His speed figures, despite being all earned on synthetics which yield slower numbers, are as good or better than everyone else’s. His first attempt at two turns resulted in his first loss but Baffert said he learned some key things about him that day and that he’ll improve. I actually picked against him in the Norfolk because I thought he was being pushed a bit hard. Baffert got him good in time to break his maiden then essentially ran him twice off that same fitness. With more time between starts but harder works in the morning I think the horse is perfectly primed for a big effort. The outside post doesn’t bother me. There is plenty of time to get in the right spot and Baze likely wants to be stalking the pace on the outside anyway. I think Square Eddie and Munnings are both sucker horses. Square Eddie screams Euro bounce and we can’t forget that Keeneland bears little resemblance to Santa Anita. He is trying to do something completely new just 3 weeks after romping to a lifetime best performance. Munnings may be the best eastern juvenile in the race and I do think he has a nice future. But this is the wrong spot to be risking any money on him. He wants to be near the pace but he doesn’t break that well. The inside draw will likely force him to be shuffled way back. He’s also trying two turns for the first time. Amazingly someone made him the morning line favorite for this race. I honestly hope that holds up. The main danger to Midshipman I see is Street Hero. He is not as brilliant but he is just as gutsy. I think he is a great bet to hit the frame. Street Hero is what I like to call a benchmark horse. You know exactly what kind of performance you’re going to get from him. Sometimes it’s good enough to win, sometimes it’s just good enough to hit the frame but he’s a great horse to judge your form off of. He’s already faced Midshipman three times and his results against him have gotten progressively better. He is a danger for sure but I still prefer Midshipman. For a couple of longshots I like Elusive Bluff and Terrain. Elusive Bluff’s entry in this race made me scratch my head for a while. He looks like a great prospect for the other juvenile race. But his trainer Eric Guillot is an underrated master with juveniles and I do put some stock in his judgment. So much was made of Juvy Turf favorite Bittel Road’s gutsy win last time out but Elusive Bluff looked exactly the same in his. He seemed to be struggling to accelerate but he just kept grinding. It was actually quite remarkable that he got up for the win. Synthetics may help him along a little. Gradual accelerators have done pretty well on the surface. He is dangerous. There is a bit of support coming in for wise guy play Pioneerof the Nile and I have to say I just don’t see it. I much prefer the horse who handled him easily last time, Terrain. No one is going to bet Terrain but he’s going to get a good ground saving trip and if we get a wacky pace like we sometimes do in this race he’s the one I want my money on. He’s a good, consistent deep closer. He’s been on 4 different tracks and liked them all so I think he should adapt well. I respect the chances of West Side Bernie just because he seems to tick all the right boxes but the extreme outside post is not ideal.

Midshipman

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
I think the odds maker did a decent job with this one. There are 6 horses below 10-1 and I think 5 of them make of the group of “horses to beat”. The winner should likely be one of these five: Bittel Road, Westphalia, Skipadate, Grand Adventure and Coronet of a Baron. The trouble is three of these horses (Bittel Road, Grand Adventure and Skipadate) drew the outside posts. In the Mile I don’t really care about outside posts unless they’re committed speed horses. Most of the milers are old pro’s who can get themselves sorted and settled by the turn. This race is a different story and I fear that if any of these three try to take up a more tactical position they’ll get hung out. Unfortunately it means they likely have to drop out the back and work their way through the field. That’s not a huge problem for Bittel Road and Skipadate has experience with that as well but Grand Adventure looks compromised. It’s a real shame too because I love Sam-Son farms and I’ll be rooting for this guy. He looks like he could be a really good router with some maturity. This may not be his day though. Bittel Road also looks like an accomplished router in the making but I’m not going to make him my primary pick. I think he still needs to learn how to run a complete race. He goes to sleep in spots and in a field this good I think it’ll be too much to overcome, especially when you factor in traffic as well. Skipadate has more of a miler look to him. He’s small, he’s quick and he’s tough. He also apparently waits on horses so connections outfitted him with blinkers to give him more focus. He is the most live out of the outside three. Westphalia has to rate a huge chance. He is a much better horse than the ones that came last year. He does not have much early speed so likely he’ll just break behind the rest, save ground and try to get a clean shot in the lane. He will count on some luck in running but his talent is beyond question. No matter who is in front at the 1/8th pole keep looking back to see where this guy is. The horse that could be in front at the 1/8th pole is Coronet of a Baron. I think this is a better place for his two-turn debut than the Juvenile. I think he is talented enough to run with the main track horses but this is an easier spot for him to stretch out. The last two times he was gunned to the front prematurely by Nakatani and got caught. Garcia should handle him more patiently and hopefully he won’t fully expose him around the turn. I think because of the post positions and the pace he becomes the horse to beat. So I’ll likely use Coronet of a Baron as my primary then Westphalia and Skipadate as secondary picks. Grand Adventure and Bittel Road still need to be used underneath. The only outsider I’d consider is Orthodox. He doesn’t look nearly good enough but he is the only Californian in the race and his best race was definitely on the grass. If home court advantage counts for anything he could pick up a piece.

Coronet of a Baron
Westphalia
Skipadate

Breeders’ Cup Marathon
This is not a race I’d play too heavily unless the prices are far different from what I’m expecting. I think Sixties Icon, Zappa and Cedar Mountain are the horses you have to consider. Sixties Icon is riding a three race winning streak in Europe and you know he stays the trip easily. He is the only G-1 winner in the race and at one point in his career he looked good enough to win the BC Turf. Those days are past for him but he still has a major class advantage over everyone else. Synthetics and hot weather are the question marks with him. I don’t think there is a clear cut answer to either of those. One thing that does cool me slightly on him is the fact that he’s been on the go since the season opened in Europe. Most of the Europeans who run well here did so off a break of some kind in the summer or fall. Conversely most of the Europeans who fail badly didn’t get any breaks at all. Sixties Icon is the horse to beat but he’s not a confident selection. The first American I like as an alternative is Zappa. With Fairbanks out he might be able to control the pace. He likes a route of ground going 2 for 3 past 10f on the main track and as he showed at Del Mar he is capable of running huge when he feels like it. Cedar Mountain is the horse I’ll likely settle on depending on the prices. He is underrated and I don’t think many people realize his level of class. He wants at least 12f, he is all stayer. He has already won on synthetics although that was in Europe. His Turf races were good enough to make me believe that he can handle anyone in this race aside from maybe Sixties Icon at his best. The extended layoff is not ideal, in my opinion, for going this far but Drysdale is quite competent. I have to trust that the horse is ready.

Cedar Mountain

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Turf Sprint’s tend to be difficult races to handicap. I had quite a time with them at Saratoga but I am thinking that Santa Anita’s course is odd enough that some horses will have a very hard time with it. I am hoping the specialists dominate. The eastern horses like Mr. Nightlinger, True To Tradition and Salute The Count will be at a disadvantage for not having tried the downhill course before. Not only does the downhill and right handed turn throw a wrench in the mix but crossing the dirt track is a huge distraction for a lot of horses. I think the pace is going to be breakneck. The downhill course always sees quick early fractions but this may be the fastest field ever assembled on this course. I count no less than 5 pure speed horses and a few of them really need the lead. So basically in this race I’m looking to focus on stalkers or closers with a good record on the course. The logical horses are Get Funky and Desert Code. Get Funky is a great bet in this race. He suffered his first ever Turf sprinting loss last time when California Flag freaked out but with more pace in here Get Funky is looking at a better setup. He’s been prepped all year for this race and I suspect connections are thrilled with him. His loss last time means he’ll avoid favoritism. If money flows for the big reputation eastern horses he could even be something like 6/1 which I think is a great price for a horse as solid as he is. Desert Code is not as brilliant as Get Funky but he does have a few stakes wins over the course and he has the favorable second off a layoff angle working for him. His best races come when closely stalking the speed. A lot of pace means he might get shuffled back more than he prefers but it may help him if this field goes the first quarter in sub :21 which they’re capable of doing. He is definitely worth having a few quid on. Of the Europeans I really respect Fleeting Spirit. She likes firm ground and her best race might be better than anyone else’s. The question with her is similar to the questions concerning the easterners. Will they handle this unique course. If her price happens to be better than the big guns from the east then lump on. She is as good as them if not better and the risk of her not performing is similar. I don’t think anyone has managed to forget what Mandella did the last time the Breeders’ Cup came to Santa Anita. He’s got One Union in this race and the horse, while not the most likely winner, does have a good chance of hitting the board. He basically runs the same race every time and that race might be good enough to get a piece. Also if you’re looking for a contrarian trainer angle consider this. Salute the Count was impressive in his last win. It was a career best effort and he has been freshened up since but his recent training according to Dutrow has left his participation in doubt. A few days ago he said he might not even send him. In 2005 we had nearly the same occurrence. He had a horse that last ran a career best race but was coming off a layoff. He said his training was so poor he might not run. Well he did end up running and Silver Train paid $25.80

Get Funky
Desert Code

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
I suspect a collective groan went through the ranks of opposing trainers when it was announced that Well Armed was coming to this race instead of the Classic. For the record I think he ought to have taken his shot at the big price but he is the horse to beat here and I’m not sure than anyone can. If I were looking for a single of the day this horse would likely be it. Well Armed has been a monster this year, especially on synthetics. All of his last five races are better than anything anyone else in this field has run all year. I think he simply outclasses this bunch. He can adapt to any pace so there is little chance of catching him out that way. He simply looks like money in the bank. There still could be a chance to make money with exotics though. I kind of like the Lacombe Tiznow brothers of Slew’s Tizzy and Slew’s Tiznow. $10 says that Denman mixes them up at least once during the race. Slew’s Tizzy is the more established but I prefer his younger brother. I think Slew’s Tizzy has already sort of established that he needs to be right on the pace to win. He is inside of all the speed but I think he’ll get covered up by some faster horses. Slew’s Tiznow may well prove to be better than his brother. He was certainly far more precocious. He needs to improve to be competitive, which is why you’ll get a price, but he is at a stage in his career where massive and sudden improvement is normal. He’s already as good as horses like Rebellion and Two Step Salsa. A step up could see him match up well with Surf Cat, Albertus Maximus and Lewis Micheal. He’s got good tactical speed and he has already shown an affinity for synthetics. He’s drawn outside Well Armed which could aid him in pacing himself properly. I suspect Bejarano will get a good look at the whole field from his position and be well placed to make a run when appropriate. Lewis Micheal, Surf Cat, Albertus Maximus and Rebellion are also logical horses to use underneath Well Armed.

Well Armed

Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf
I’m disappointed with the class that Europe has sent over. Goldikova is not officially out of this race at the time of writing but all indications are that she will go in the Mile. That leaves Halfway To Heaven as the only legitimate European in my opinion and makes North America’s chances of winning this race very good. I think the grey fillies are both sitting on big efforts. Wait A While, the Santa Anita specialist and Forever Together, the hard charging late runner, loom as the horses to beat. Wait A While is a personal favorite of mine and has been for years. I would love nothing more than to see her breakthrough and win this. I think it would also be a just reward for her connections who made the unpopular decision to keep the champion three year old in training as a 5 year old. But sentiment can’t be the justification for selection. Wait A While is 3 for 3 at Santa Anita and some of her biggest lifetime efforts have come here. Don’t let the “low” Beyer in her last dissuade you. Her raw time was fantastic but she ran on the same day that Red Giant broke the world record and figure makers use all the Turf times to create a par for that day. In order not to make Red Giant’s figure otherworldly I feel that they trimmed her figure as well. Pace makes the race and the matter of early speed is far from straightforward. Folk Opera might flash some pace as may Halfway to Heaven and Dynaforce but none are committed front runners. All of them seem to only go to the front if it suits them on the day. I don’t like Folk Opera at all I think she’s set for a regression, what we call the Euro bounce. The time to play Europeans is first off the plane. Second time is rarely as successful. Travel takes quite a toll. Dynaforce is not a horse I’ll use. I liked her earlier in the year and she does perform at a high level but I don’t like the way her campaign has unfolded. I think I just really prefer not to use New Yorkers in California at this stage of the campaign. If I was to use a New Yorker it would be Mauralakana. She was all the rage 5 weeks ago now she’s about as popular as a ham at Passover. She’s still quite a filly and if the bettors let her drift she is worth using. Forever Together is the newest sensation in the division. I’m not sure I like her going ten panels but she has a breathtaking late kick. There is some concern about her handling the heat but for me it’s a question of pace and distance. I respect her greatly but I think she’ll have too much to do and her stamina will be stretched. Yielding courses require more stamina and Woodbine is a very testing course even when it’s firm. She hasn’t dealt with yielding ground or Woodbine particularly well. I suspect she’ll come with a run but it won’t have the same ferocity we saw at Keeneland and Saratoga. Halfway To Heaven is a three time European G-1 winner who has never finished worse than third. She even accounted for Passage of Time, last year’s second place finisher, in a 10f event. She has enough speed to be forwardly placed and also has the acceleration to pick up the leaders in a flash. Two weaknesses I may have noted with her is that she isn’t the smoothest around corners and she prefers to be in front of her rivals as opposed to be the one chasing them down. First run will be very important for her especially given the relatively short straight she’ll find at Santa Anita. I prefer my European contenders to have a more recent break than July but at least she got a break. So many of the horses from Europe who flop haven’t had a summer break. Halfway to Heaven has and she, along with Wait A While, will be my choices. Dynaforce, Forever Together and Mauralakana could all run big but I’ll only use them underneath. I don’t really like any of the bombs in this race. I think class will tell and the five I’ve been most focused on are the classiest in the race.

Wait A While
Halfway To Heaven

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic
Zenyatta stands on top of this field and anyone who handicaps this race has to decide how to use her. She doesn’t seem to have any holes, yes she comes from the back but so far no pace scenario has seen her look vulnerable. It seems like no matter what happens in the first three quarters of the race she still comes bounding to the front with ears pricked. In my opinion no one can beat her if she shows up. At her best she is simply the best and I don’t blame anyone for singling her. We all know that there are no locks in racing, we’ve seen stumbles, traffic problems and injuries affect horses chances. If you really think that one of those things will happen to Zenyatta I think you have to look at Ginger Punch and Cocoa Beach as the most likely alternative winners. Cocoa Beach has never run a bad race and she seems to be really getting over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Godolphin are committed to having their horses fresh for the fall and it seems to be paying dividends recently. Cocoa Beach has every right to get better. Ginger Punch might be as high as 6/1 and that would certainly be value. She has lost only twice since winning this race last year and both those races came when she was forced to set the pace. There is more speed in here and she will be able to stalk the pace like she prefers. Her synthetic form is decent and no one can question her toughness. She looks good physically although she’s a totally different type than Zenyatta. She is more slight and athletic like a soccer player while Zenyatta is massive and powerful more like a football player. I think we’ll see those two deciding it between them. I usually like to nominate a horse that non one else would think of and that horse for me is Santa Teresita. Her form doesn’t look good enough but she does look better than Adoration did in 2003. She likes synthetics and will be better suited to the fast pace she should get here. Last time she was forced to keep Hystericalady in her sights, this time she can just go at her own pace and be placed more mid-pack. I think that will see her run an improved race. She was just a length worse than the classy Hystericalady last time. An improved race could put her in the frame. She is also second off a layoff, which is an angle that often sees improvement. Realistically though I’ll put most of my money on Zenyatta in the win spot and very little elsewhere. Although if you want a decent angle that could make money even with a Zenyatta win consider a show bet on the horse you consider most solid aside from the favorite. You can still collect if Zenyatta wins and if the unthinkable happens and she misses the frame you could make a huge score thanks to the very strong support she’ll have in the show pool.

Zenyatta

Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint
The first race of the Breeders’ Cup is almost a microcosm of the theme for the whole meet. This race like so many others has a clear favorite who is seemingly legitimate and seems much better than their rivals on paper. As a general rule I’m not going to be tossing horses like Indian Blessing, Zenyatta or Curlin but I will still be looking for possible upsetters and ways to make good money in the exotics even if these horses finish on top. Indian Blessing lays over the field. She has never lost a sprint, her figures are much higher than the competitions and she has learned to rate in her last few races. That’ll come in handy because this race is packed with speed. Dearest Trickski, Dream Rush, Indyanne and maybe even Lady Sprinter could be significant pace factors. If you want to analyze the pace the common way you’d say that the speed is going to burn itself and closers or good stalkers have the best chance. Indian Blessing could be long gone before the late closers get going and I really think that although Intangaroo is accomplished she isn’t quite as good on synthetics. I’d use her for minor placings for sure but the impact of her late run is blunted on this surface. I think Ventura looms a much bigger danger as a closer. She’s in great form and has had ideal preparation. The surface switch may help a bit with the price but she’ll still be well backed. Upon reflection we see that she beat very little at Keeneland. I’m inclined to go against her despite respecting her chances a great deal. I think she might be a bit overbet and she still has to improve a lot to beat in Indian Blessing’s league. If I’m taking a shot I figure it ought to be on more than a 6/1 shot. I have this theory that Keeneland form is not going to hold all that well at Santa Anita and I’m also not big on the quick turn of foot horses. I think steady acceleration is the way to go. One bomb that I’ll use in all spots is Tizzy’s Tune. Her speed figures look well below par but 40/1 shots rarely appear without blemish. She likes the surface and has the right style. A mid-pack stalker who is heavy bodied and a gradual accelerator. Relative form guides put her right in the mix with the rest of the field aside from the favorite. She lost by a head to Intangaroo in January but beat Tiz Elemental and Magnificience in her last. Logically it would mean she ought to be good enough to run with Dearest Trickski as well. She does really well in longer sprints on synthetics and I think she is coming up to the race the right way. As I said I’m going to use her in all spots, especially right beneath Indian Blessing. I’d have a saver in the win pool as well. I just have a feeling that if Indian Blessing is to lose it’ll be to a totally odd horse. If pressed for a third selection, and in keeping with my odd horse theory, I would actually include Dream Rush. She hasn’t really got going in three starts this year but this filly is one running son of a gun. She is the speed of the speed and in races that seem to have so much speed on paper sometimes a few of the riders decide to hold back. How many times have we seen speed duels fail to materialize and the speed of the speed dominates. Dream Rush hasn’t shown the requisite talent for a while now but we know it’s in there somewhere. Most of the chatter says you can’t win wire to wire at Santa Anita. The contrarian in me says we’ll see it done more than you think. She’s got speed, back class, and she is very consistent. Stranger things have happened.

Indian Blessing
Tizzy’s Tune

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
I don’t like this race very much and I don’t think a race full of this level of horses belongs at the Breeders’ Cup. It looks like a stakes race in August at Saratoga not a championship event. I’ll be keeping my hands in my pockets for this one. The only real interest I have in this is one is to get a feel for how the turf course in playing. Most of the main contenders are from the east but Californian BC’s tend not to be kind to eastern horses. C Karma, Laragh, Maram and Consequence look like the most logical horses but if they all flop it could spell out a do not touch sign on some eastern males running later on in Breeders’ Cup races. I think people are more or less obliged to pick at least a rooting interest in each race so I’ll take Saucey Evening. I like the connections and she’s got a bit of proven class as well as route experience. She looks like the most experienced west coaster and her breeding is nice for the grass. Hopefully she gives me something to root for down the lane.

Saucey Evening

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
This race features the second logical favorite whom the public will absolutely eat up at the windows. Anyone who has followed this division knows that Stardom Bound has been the talk of the town for months. I’ve decided to try and oppose her, whether or not that’s a smart thing to do time will tell. The Juvenile Fillies is not usually a race that falls apart and is picked up by a deep closer like Stardom Bound. I know this is synthetics and it plays differently but my thought is that any horse who continually closes from way back eventually finds themselves in a race with a decent stalker who gets the jump on them and there is simply too much to do. It happened to Street Boss in the Ancient Title and it could happen to Stardom Bound here. Actually it has already happened to Stardom Bound twice in her career. Someone gets the jump on her and she was unable to go and get them. The logical candidates to beat her are C.S. Silk, Sky Diva and Dream Empress. I’m not thrilled about the fact that none of these horses are west coasters but it’s a fact I’ll have to live with. Sky Diva seems to be the most talented of the trio but a lack of any synthetic experience has me a bit nervous. I might use her but only a little bit. There have been much better winners of the Frizette who have failed in the BC. I think Dream Empress is your tough benchmark kind of horse. Sort of like Persistently has been in NY. Dream Empress is not brilliant but she’s solid and very tough physically. Her maiden win showed that she is brave enough to go through a hole and tough enough to take some bumping. She seems to have a good mind. Unfortunately I see her as a great type to use underneath Stardom Bound, not on top of her. She just doesn’t seem brilliant enough at her best. That leaves me with C.S Silk. This filly has the look of a special one. Her competition has been weak so we’re really pretty blind on her true form. She seems to be the type that will either run big and upset this thing or finish well back. I think she might be worth a look to win. She was immense at Arlington and while I don’t love the fact that she was setting the pace that day I do think that she is rateable. This was not a case of getting out in front and putting the rest of the field to sleep. This was a Vineyard Haven equivalent performance where she simply dominated and proved to be in a different league entirely. She will be coming off one of the longest layoffs in the field but that doesn’t scare me. I think connections wanted to have her fresh for this after her big performance at Arlington. The key for her will be not to go too fast too early. If the pace is really hot Stardom Bound will inhale the front runners. C.S Silk needs a steady pace and then needs to get clear before the favorite has a chance to get in gear. Longshots that I’ll be taking a close look at are Be Smart and Pursuit of Glory. I think Lukas rarely gets good stock anymore and he often screws up any good ones that he gets. So when one of his runs well I sit up and take notice. He hadn’t won with a first timer at Saratoga in ages but Be Smart was impressive over some next out winners. She then went straight into a G-1 route on Polytrack. She did very well despite being no match for the winner. She could stay around a lot longer than people think. Pursuit of Glory has a “Square Eddie” sort of look to her in that she has some form on European synthetics as well as on grass. The big question with her is whether or not she is ready to go two turns but she is bred to go longer might be completely overlooked. She is a far better filly than any of the Europeans in the Juvenile Fillies Turf so if one of them captures that event she may even be worth a win bet. I like the thought of using a total outsider, although Europeans have never captured this race they have had success in the Juvenile. Perhaps they’re due, she at least has the speed to be in front of Stardom Bound and if she fires she’ll make her move before the favorite and that’s what I’m looking for.

C.S. Silk
Pursuit of Glory